ADBE NeutralADBE Channel for almost 40 years.
Fibonacci Extensions
1- $675.20
1.168- $926.02
2.168- $1331.88
ADBE trade ideas
ADBE is coming closer to an important resistance Strong AI beneficiary, NASDAQ:ADBE , had a great move since Oct'22 bottom, advancing more than 100%, and is still in stable uptrend. What are the price levels long investors and traders need to be cautious about?
My structural analysis of price dynamics shows that there is an important level of mid-term resistance in 590-625 that may serve as the topping area and lead to start of the correction towards important support zone 510-466.
This support zone is the main crossroad between two counts presented. If 466 level will not hold under any perspective selling pressure, then macro-bearish white count becomes operative with lows below Oct 22 to be expected.
If price manages to stay above this 510-466 level, then at least one more leg-up towards 680+ would be my main expectation.
Another important cautious sign from the volume perspective, is escalating weekly distribution candle in Sep, with yet no contra-accumulation bars.
It is still early and inappropriate to take decisively bearish stance, due to price being in supportive uptrend and not breaking any even short-term moving averages. The purpose of this analysis is to provide potential framework for important resistance area ahead for any long positions already established.
The analysis is valid until price stays below 625. Decisive move above 625 will force me to reconsider and re-do the analysis.
Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price
Adobe Inc. NASDAQ stock today Wide-moat Adobe reported good third-quarter results, including revenue and non-GAAP EPS that exceeded the top end of guidance and our expectations along with it. We characterize management’s fourth-quarter guidance as in line with investor expectations, which given recent strength and with Firefly AI now generating revenue, could be interpreted as a slight disappointment. We think this mentality mainly misses the mark given such a short-term focus. Further, management will provide fiscal 2024 targets within its fourth-quarter results in December so in-line guidance for one quarter matters less to us here. To begin to accommodate recently announced price increases in the area of 10% for various Creative Cloud and single app instances, we are modestly raising our growth estimates over the next several years. Our fair value estimate therefore increases to $510, from $485 previously, although after a strong run, we see shares as fairly valued.
ADBE - Good 'Ol Head & Shoulders ADBE is forming a Good old classic Head and Shoulders pattern at the top.
I would wait for the that tiny little gap to fill on the top and build short position.
Short Entry between 535-540
Downside Target#1 - 440
Downside Target#2 - If you are really lucky, 395
ADBE Short - This trade is with the daily and H4 trend
- There is a pattern on M15 and M30
- There is a lot of divergence
- This is a fast-moving pair so there is high stop loss but it should fall to the bottom (500)
trend resistance can send it lower 🐼ADBE make or break level here, rejection at trend resistance sends it to 484 🎯
break past TL/426🟢 and push to 567 should follow 🎯
boost and follow for more.. thanks 💛
ADOBE A good buy for the long runAdobe Inc is trading between the MA50 and MA100 (1d) on a Fibonacci Channel that depicts very accurately the strong 1 year uptrend.
The first phase traded inside Fibonacci 0-1, the second is trading inside 1-2.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 700.00 (All Time High and Fibonacci 3.0 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed over its MA, after rebounding on the Buy Zone. A strong bullish signal.
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ADBE, Second BEAR-Fractal, SHORT-Momentum DOOMSDAY Incoming!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of ADBE. This stock has been massively battered by the major bear market decline setup in the gigantic bear channel. This stock did not exceed any new highs and did not have the potential to emerge with new bull momentum. The bears are still present within this stock and this is exactly why the bear momentum for this stock can accelerate heavily any time soon. There are several major bearish indications that are underlining the bearish scenario for the stock in an overwhelmingly precarious way.
Three reasons why the bear doomsday scenario for the stock is present, starting any time soon:
1.) Massive Liquidations: Over 250 Billion positions have been liquidated within the previous bearish doomsday market decline wave towards the downside.
2.) Weak Momentum: The momentum with which the recent meager recovery wave setup is highly fragile and is likely to turn anytime soon.
3.) Major Short-Side Positioning: A vast amount of institutional and smart money operators are positioning their selves on the short side. Always an important indication especially with retail traders positioned in the other direction.
Why shorting the stock through the upcoming second bear doomsday scenario will be the best approach in the current and upcoming market conditions:
1.) Second bearish ascending wedge fractal: The stock is going to complete exactly the same bearish ascending wedge fractal towards the downside once again.
2.) Total-Return Approach: By shorting the stock a trader has the candidature to a total-return approach, the trader is profiting when prices fall and at other times when they go up.
3.) Liquidation Acceleration: Once the whole ascending fractal has been completed it will trigger a fast-paced bearish wave making profits much faster than in an uptrend.
The most prevalent determining indications that are going to activate the upcoming bear market scenario wave for the stock:
As it is seen in my chart ADBE completed the huge bearish ascending triangle fractal exactly by moving into the upper distribution zone from where it emerged with the pullback towards the downside and set up the massive 250 Billion bearish liquidation wave towards the downside. This wave developed very fast and by positioning oneself before this huge bearish wave and completion of the fractal towards the downside a trader could make a big load of profit in the market.
Now, ADBE is still trading within the gigantic descending channel formation in which it has the most prevalent upper resistance distribution channel which has been the origin of the massive bearish waves towards the downside before and is now already setting up the upcoming 300 Billion bearish liquidation wave towards the downside which is going to activate the completion of the second ascending wedge fractal and the preceding wave C towards the bearish direction.
In the next times, the whole bearish ascending wedge fractal will be completed with the breakout below the lower boundary followed by the breakout below the 65EMA and 100EMA from where the bearish trend acceleration is going to unfold huge accelerations towards the downside and the severe bearish continuations towards the lower target zones. Especially, in this case, the market could still continue beyond this level in the bearish direction.
Upcoming Perspectives and the major underlying factors that are primarily important for consideration on the short side for the stock, the sector, and the economic field:
It has to be mentioned that an economic field with high interest rates, spreading inflation, a stagnation within the sector is setting up the determination to increase this whole bearish wave development, especially with a more bearish volume moving into the market. Also, highly determining in this case is the actual technology developments because when they reverse in an economic field this will have massive bearish effects on the stock as well.
Now, for traders it is highly important to follow such market situations with the appropriate setup within the market, especially in such times it is necessary to have the right positioning within the market because a massive bearish pressure acceleration can start anytime soon considering a huge acceleration in the inflation, a smart money operator bearish market making in which the bearish conclusion will be inevitable, an expiring futures market in which a lot of futures turn to an bearish volatility in the market. This is why traders need to position their selves before all these heavy bearish scenarios are set up.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of ADBE. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
Adobe Gains CorrectionBookmarking this analysis for future reference. Average purchase price: 308. Solid year for the company with new AI integration into products while showing willingness to learn from defeat and flat out purchase Figma, great long term thinking on this one (hopefully the deal gets approved.....when will it get approved?)
Markets are correcting tho, and giving back some gains, could be a nice place to start loading up again around 440 to 385ish ......maybe. It's not overly expensive as it's currently trading at 31X PE so I'd think it would not be overly affected.
ADBE long position at up slopping supportAdobe Inc is closing to up slopping support line. Consider entry for a long position after successful retest of up slopping support line.
Recommended entry at 528.0
Target price bellow up slopping resistance line marked on the chart. Target price range 580.0-589.0
Remember to place stop loss below support line at 518.0. Falling and closing below this price will invalidate this trading idea.
Do you agree with us?
ADBE: Bearish 5-0 Bearish Entry Anticipating PPO ConfirmationBack in December 2021, ADBE gave us a Bearish ABCD entry that led us into a Shark BAMM Pattern. Once it made it to the BAMM target, it bounced back up to where it is now. The interesting thing is that the PPO is looking like it's ready to roll over, and it happens to be at what would be a Potential Bearish 5-0 entry. If the PPO crosses below the upper extremes, we could see this go for a lower low, and if we are to judge how far it can go harmonically, I'd say it could go all the way to the 1.414, which would be the PCZ of a Potential Bullish ABCD.
For additional context, I have left the Bearish Entry setup from 2021 in the Related Ideas Section below.
Adobe Inc. (‘ADBE’)
Shares of Adobe Inc. (symbol ‘ADBE’) have performed exceptionally well over the last 3 months, reaching a 20-month high. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending August 2023 is due for release on Thursday 14 August, after market close. The consensus EPS is $3.17, well up from $2.63 in same quarter last year.
The company has consistently had around a 3% revenue rise quarter-over-quarter for the last 3 consecutive quarters, and if it this pattern continues, we might see the share price reflect this positive performance. The total assets as of 31 May were $27.8 billion, up 5.74% year-on-year) while total liabilities were $13 billion, up 5.34% year-on-year. That shows a ratio of assets to liabilities of more than 2:1, indicating a financially sound company and therefore an attractive addition to investor portfolios.
From the technical analysis perspective the price has been aggressively bullish, to a 20-month high. It’s currently testing the resistance of the Bollinger bands as well as the inside reaction area of mid-October 2021’s price, while the faster moving 50-day average is trading well above the slower 100-day, further validating the market’s bullish trend.
The price broke above the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement level, which is now a strong technical support for the price.
ADBE suppress by the top to bottom golden ratio of 1.382ADBE suppress by the top to bottom golden ratio of 1.382
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Adobe's stock over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, the highest point of Adobe's stock in the past two weeks has been suppressed by the top to bottom golden ratio of 1.382 in the figure, and the high point in early June and low point in mid August this year are exactly 2.000 positions in the top to bottom golden ratio in the figure! So, in the future, just use the top to bottom golden section of 1.382 in the figure as the watershed to determine the strength of Adobe's stock!
AdbeEarnings this Friday...
Think adbe will correct after this earnings back to 500.
Price broke out of a triangle and the move is now complete
Bearish divergence on daily RSI and chart
Usually with symmetrical triangles the measure move of the breakout is the length of triangle like so :
As you can see, the move is completed.
My short term target is 500 post earnings, if Adobe loses 500, it's going to 450. Price could gap up on earnings news and flush after similar to NVDA
ADBE Adobe Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ADBE ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADBE Adobe prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 600usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $32.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ADBE ,,, BreakoutIt seems Adobe has passed a price level successfully and its heading toward 700 after this breakout. About 500 can be a good level for setting SL at it.
ADBE Wave 5 failurePrice could fail and do a double top or a fake out top then correct
That's how I see it, I'm no expert in E.W though, but only time can tell
Let's see
Adobe's stock has risen by 4 small bandsAdobe's stock has risen by 4 small bands
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Adobe's stock in the past two years. The top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, Adobe's stock has risen by 4 small bands since the short-term bottom formation at the end of September 2022, and the bull momentum has been perfectly released! The recent peak of Adobe's stock has just peaked at the top to bottom golden ratio of 1.618 in the picture, and now it has fallen back to 2.000! In the future, the top to bottom golden ratio of 2.382 in the figure will serve as the long short divide for Adobe's stock!
Rising WedgesThe most recent Rising Wedge (top wedge) was broken but price quickly recovered.
There is another RW below this one that is not valid as the bottom line has not been broken.
Price broke up and out of this wedge.
Rising wedges interrupt supply and demand causing too much supply inside the wedge.
Both lines slope up and converge at the apex.
No recommendation.
$ADBE in consolidation areaNASDAQ:ADBE in consolidation area , a pullback to the gap fill one can imagine to have a cup and handle forming. if this critical level breaks then if a retest is successful then a push to 600s is possible
ADOBE: $307 up (+147,000%) Doing Nothing since Day a superior product inspired by XEROX PALO (PARC) R&D in 1970
come 1982 (12 years later) ADOBE was born
come 1986 (4 years later) adobe got listed at $0.21 cents
since then it rewarded early believers to (144,000%) for 33 years
thats a CAGR of (+4,300%) yearly yiled with an upward correction of -60%
up until todate where are media are becoming in demand to post millennial generartion
--
MSOFT Microsoft listed around the same time @ $0.09 cents now spot $152 up (+168,000%)
also inspired by PARC
ADBE - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout rising trend up in the medium long term.
🔹Supports at 450 if NEGATIVE reaction occurs.
🔹RSI bearish diverges against the price, indicating downward reaction.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
