AMC2 trade ideas
$GME - Here we go | Starting tomorrow or on March 6 ish. The chart above is a composite chart of: AMC, GME, COIN, HOOD, CHPT, F, LUMN, GRAB, FINV, CHPT. 3 of these are in the XRT ETF but that doesn't matter too much. This basket is the "meme" basket and it's general use as i understand is as a source of liquidity since most of the stocks inside it are illiquid like GME, LUMN and maybe a few others. I don't think AMC is illiquid, it's in fact highly traded in the swaps world as a single name stock. GME has had 1/20'th of AMC's trading volume in swapps in 2022. In 2021 they were close-ish but that changed in November/December 2021.
My preferred way of seeing the composite meme basket it in Tradingview is to copy and paste this in my Symbols/Ticker List:
AMC+CHPT+COIN-DT+F-FINV+GME+GRAB+HOOD+LUMN
This is the best variation of the basket i've managed to make in my own opinion/world. You could simply just remove the minus symbols and make everything a + if you like and that generates a really nice liquidity rich looking chart that's also quite linear and good for selling spreads which is exactly what's been happening. I've found out that for this basket, in the last quarter, around $168 mil worth of spread swaps were sold. The date of effect or expiry ( i don't remember which) was Dec 7 this year which now explains the subsequent price drop in not just GME but this whole entire basket.
About GME and what might occur next week onwards:
Data on GME has turned bullish:
imgur.com
Data on SPY is turning bullish too:
imgur.com
I believe SPY is going to retrace back to $405 within the next 15 days and with that obviously all other stocks are going to follow this oscilation and move up appropriately. This includes meme stonks just like the one we love to hate and hate to love GME.
Since i found the actual basket and was able to take my time to check it out and simplify what i see, basically i think i have the precise days of the price runs up. Since it's really close, i can tell with a lot of certainty now... It's going to start this week and will continue up to the 3'rd - 6'th of Jan (Max 9'th of Jan).
Me giving you this info isn't great as everyone i let people know the dates, everyone buys the heck out of this thing, brokers are forced to go short a share they're selling you and the price plummets, the borrow rate skyrockets and the "wen moon" date gets extended to a later date.
Seeing that people have already gone nuts on GME since Dec 23 and have forced the borrow rate up again, considering that most broker based retail traders including myself have been burned by holding short dated options and have sold them off last week, the price should start to rise back and above it's previous levels before the insane buying started.
Now if people go nuts again this could result in another muted run where people know where to buy and where to go short resulting in a very muted and quick GME run. Unfortunately there are no longer enough people that are willing to buy enough GME options for a Gamma Squeeze, that's completely out of the question and people buying 40 share lots instead of even 100 share lots aren't helping since they getting bought and grouped up by a wholesaler and lent out to others intra-day before finding other to sell their inventory to and not to mention the pennies retail is getting scalped on due to the wholesaler grouping the various orders and selling spread/lending/selling/buying at better or wider prices.
Anyway, point is, i think things happen next week. If the blue line i circled in the first pic i posted here continues to move up parabolically, we're golden and i'll know when this happens on Tuesday EOD which may already be late as i think things will start from that day, but ok... it might at least serve as some kind of confirmation.
Anyway, don't get to gree buying both shares and options... who am i kidding, do your thing. I have 438 calls $25c for next week so. Hoping to be a millionare so i can quit it all. Good luck and regards you highly regarded folk you.
Basic Analysis:
-I'm not going to add details in order to keep this simple for people. To that, i've simply drawn 3 date counting lines showing 3 x 140 day periods inside the RSI at the bottom of the chart. If for some reason you are unable to see these lines, please resize the RSI chart.
Basically, the cycles seem to be ~140 day long instead of 90 day or 60 day or 120 days as many other have tried theorizing including myself. At least that's the theory here unless i'm wrong, again.
It looks like a prerequisite for a GME/meme basket run is that the RSI has to be oversold or generally harshly treated near the weak or oversold area. As i said, not to go into details about other microcycles, i'll just be talking about the big cycles...
Now each time the RSI bottoms out on the chart above for the composite basket, 60 days later GME begins it's ~1w price run which is then followed by a market correction.
So, the next big GME price run either starts tomorrow onwards till Jan 3-9
Or it starts on March 6.
What cannot go wrong is buying at these levels since the entire basket's RSI is completely bottomed out and has spent it's time not only in RSI prison (weak spot) but also within the oversold area. Without the rest of the market moving down, it would be difficult to move the price of GME lower. At best it can be kept sideways, but that takes effort as well. The easiest thing for all sides is for the price to simply move up along with the rest of the market.
So yes. Either tomorrow for the next 10 days or in March on the 6'th ish.
You're definitely a highly regarded person if you've read this far down. Let me know down in the comments if you feel highly regarded.
Thanks
AMC AnalysisPrice exactly as analyzed last week. Price has mitigated the bearish POI at 7.33. I'm expecting price to continue higher, unless we see a confirmation to go lower on the lower timeframe. Currently, I see price breaking market structure to the downside on the lower timeframe. However, volume is decreasing on the break, signifying that price could still continue higher.
AMC Long opportunityCAPITALCOM:AMC showing signs of bottoming out at the 4hr chart and at the end of an Elliot wave to the downside, potential long opportunity for a run up from 4.2 to about 7.2 (Fib swing levels) during the next few weeks approaching the APE>AMC conversion vote.
Need to be careful though, as AMC is prime target of shorts.
AMC - Ready To Tumble But Could Turn Bull SoonAMC has completed a 3 wave correction here and pushing down against the 4H 200MA and ascending trendline.
Its been a while since AMC went bananas and every ape in town came rushing in.
But it may be ape time again soon, obviously not until its done a x5 or so...
Chart personalities tend to continue and AMC is a ripper.
Looking to buy the low and hopefully with some precision.
Not shorting.
Not advice.
AMC - Sell LimitAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is an American movie theater chain founded in Kansas City, Missouri and now headquartered in Leawood, Kansas. It is the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres.
Strong price rejection around those volume. Weak low. When testing those volume, those shorts may add to their positions
Happy 618!!!I haven't posted any TA on AMC in a while, It has been peaceful. Can you believe it, tomorrow Feb 10th 23' will be 618 days since ATH's. These low volume days really hurt but the fact that there is nothing backing such a move, just a result of derivatives and degens pissing away premiums.
These are a the current support and resistance i'm tracking. Nothing much just wanted to archive the day.
Hang in there!