Bullish One White Soldier Usually this bullish pattern appears in downtrend of which the price clearly has been last few weeks. However, this may finally give bulls the chance they needed to believe the worst is behind but don't get trapped in a complete smugness here which could be a short covering rally. If markets remain uptick and close the year strong so will this stock recovery towards $614 area but down the road the chance we will see below $500 remains very strong. Our long position has given us 7.16% gain in a few sessions and good to take profit right at and around $580 or monitor closely. Real-time alerts go www.2waytrading.com
CHMG trade ideas
$CMG Do or die momentSince last earnings it hasn't been able to overcome the 9 and 20 day moving averages and has been shot down at the trendline every time. Moving averages are flattening a bit and with a couple more days of low volume consolidation can get it over the hump. $590-$600 would be the next logical target area above. If it loses steam and falls below $550 most likely revisits the lows.
$CMG: Busted Burrito$CMG broke below a long term trend line back in April and it has returned back to the trend which now acts resistance. A bearish head and shoulders pattern could also be forming. $CMG reports after the close today. Same stores growth has been decelerating and food prices were higher during the quarter. I see $CMG falling after earnings to the nearest support line at $600.
Disclosure: Long put spread.
REPUBLISHING CMG SHORT SALE REC FROM 9/19/2014 @666Chipotle Mexican Grill -CMG - Daily
"With Qdoba (JACK) breaking out, and CMG rolled over and under 28+ days of supply at 675-680.
If you can risk a rally to 682, just over a 2% rally, then I see reasonable chances for a drop to $625 or the middle of the gap from the July jump.
Tim
11:40AM EST 9/19/2014 Friday"
PS - It's always interesting to see when the stock chart gives a clue as to what the news is going to be. When you get this kind of technical setup ahead of news, it may really mean that top-notch researchers are right on top of traffic at CMG locations or that the information about each store revenue is getting leaked to an analyst or hedge fund and the word gets around the street. Perhaps the weakness in CMG was also a delayed reaction to the drop in the Russell 2000 Index this year as the strong momentum name stocks have been sold off down to more acceptable position sizes. To rephrase - CMG may have been suffering from money management strategies where portfolio managers were cutting down their positions in CMG since it was doing so well relative to the market. Good stocks can suffer this way as managers are forced to sell simply because the position size is now too large a percentage of their portfolio. Because of money management rules, good stocks can be sold off, which can make them look technically like shorts, but it doesn't always last long. There are plenty of reports out on the earnings, which you can dissect. All the best, Tim
CMG Cup&Handle pattern, potential gap coveringChipotle Mexican Grill formed bearish pattern called Cup&Handle with lower high (reversal candle) on 6th of October. Important level of support was at $649 and was broken yesterday with conviction. Combine it with $SPX break down of 200 EMA first time since long time and that is how you get in on the right side.
Risk Management: ENTRY was at $649 break. After 3 outside down days it feels a bit oversold. Maybe, wait for a bounce to fill with better price. STOP above $660 makes sence if sellers want to keep pressure and momentum. Then we have $682 reversal point. TARGET: as there is no visible support below previous support I will put my target at $609 which was resistance before gap up on earnings.
CMG short from a failed expansionCMG has been in a sideways channel for the last week. Looking for a failed breakout or expansion at the upper range because of the general market decline. Entered the trade on the break of the the inside bar (667.75) using a put option. Using the 10 EMA to stay in the trade with targets at fib levels .382 and .618 with a runner to 646.
JACK versus CMG - Valuation MeasuresWith JACK, you get a valuation less than 2 times sales compared to over 5 times sales for CMG. CMG is 250% more expensive than JACK, or JACK is 60% cheaper than CMG on this basis.
With JACK, you get 30% returns on equity, which compares very favorably with 20% for CMG. JACK is 50% better in this category.
A major issue, and why JACK is cheaper, is that sales growth has been lagging at JACK but from what we can see on the horizon, the store openings will lead to more sales and more sales growth. CMG had 20% sales growth in the last 12 months, which compares very favorably to JACK.
Putting the whole story together: If sales can begin to grow meaningfully, then JACK will get a huge bump in valuation as investors most likely will lighten up on CMG and move funds into JACK.
JACK would be more than quadruple its current price if it had sales growth close to CMG. QUADRUPLE. More likely, CMG will fall and JACK will rise, relatively, over the coming quarters and years.
Tim
Friday, September 26, 2014 4:54PM EST
Chipotle Mexican Grill -CMG -Daily - Rallying into supply =SHORTWith Qdoba (JACK) breaking out, and CMG rolled over and under 28+ days of supply at 675-680.
If you can risk a rally to 682, just over a 2% rally, then I see reasonable chances for a drop to $625 or the middle of the gap from the July jump.
Tim
11:40AM EST 9/19/2014 Friday This was just 667 when I started typing... now it is 664... wide spread..
Will WS Reward or Punish $CMG?Its very common for growth stocks get either big smile or face brutal punishment. No mercy at all. For speculators, only u need to have a solid plan in place not in 2 days or one day or even the same day to trade this type of stock..Once IV collapses good to take a trade, or plan well ahead before it spikes not when its very expensive specially straddle/strangles traders. Now, P/C = 1.07 very tight but more important the sizzle index stands 2.7 what this tells u? No position, but will have one soon!
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG Daily - Post Earnings Price PatternThis is an observation that is showing up in a number of stocks so I thought I would share one with you. At first this was evident in the post-options-expiration environment in the overall market as viewed by the S&P500.
Now, you can see CMG "post earnings" and then once the excitement is out of the market, it then returns to the price where the earnings were reported.
I hope you like it or find it useful.
Tim 6/3/2014 12:17PM EST
Chipotle Mex Grill CMG Daily - Rally to 50% and EPS resistanceCMG - ready for another go at CMG on the short side - The last stop was very close at only 1 ATR and it got hit right away. Oddly enough, that at least shows some strength in CMG for future reference. If CMG was very weak, it would have stopped at the key resistance level that I highlighted. The fact that it could get back up to the mid-point of the decline is a good sign for it longer term.
CMG also tagged the earnings line that I have drawn here. That is a key resistance level and a low-risk level to sell short against. I missed pointing it out as a trading level for us here.
The ATR(11) is 10.8 points, which means CMG is twice as volatile as the stock market. I see 555 now as a stop level and my target will be 510 instead of 500 on this 2nd effort.
542.65 last, -2.77
May 31, 2014 12:42PM EST
Tim