Coinbase at a Decision Point | A Make-or-Break Moment?Hi again,
Coinbase stock has once again returned to retest the neckline of a bullish chart pattern, the Inverted Head and Shoulders. This is the second time it has revisited this level, with the first retest occurring in January. While this pullback is slightly deeper, it aligns with strong technical criteria that make it a valid support for me.
Key Technical Criteria:
1. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern is Valid
The pattern became valid after a strong bullish weekly close above the neckline in November 2024.
2. Round Number Support at $200
The $200 price level is starting to act as a support zone, adding further strength to this setup.
3. Pullback with Strong Technical Confirmation. This pullback is supported by two solid technical signals:
Equal Waves Formation
The price hasn’t dropped in a single wave but rather in two equal-sized waves.
This structure helps price land more softly in the potential support area.
Channel Projection
As often said: Price moves in channels.
The price is currently respecting a channel structure, and the fourth touch within this channel could bring added volatility—especially as it aligns with other criteria.
A Healthy Uptrend
4. Since 2023, Coinbase has consistently printed higher lows, confirming a strong uptrend.
The current pullback is still inside this trend structure, which keeps the bullish bias intact.
5. Possible Inclusion in the S&P 500
Coinbase is one of the candidates for inclusion in the S&P 500, which could attract more investor attention and provide an additional boost.
Final Thoughts
The combination of a valid bullish pattern, strong support, structured pullback, and overall trend health makes Coinbase an interesting stock to watch at current levels. The reaction from this area will be crucial in confirming further upside potential.
Some fundamental "facts": COIN at $200 sits below analyst targets ($290-$325 average) but above conservative fair values ($74-$150), with risks tied to crypto volatility and regulation. It’s an interesting support zone with reversal potential—definitely worth watching.
Insiders have been more active on selling. The ratios at $200 are decent, neither screamingly cheap or outrageously high.
So, quite mixed, technically it is okay, fundamentally mixed. What is your take?
Cheers,
Vaido
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