Coinbase in downward trendFollowing a robust surge, Coinbase experienced a decline over the past week subsequent to its peak. Observable are several bearish divergences and the emergence of a bearish trend marked by declining highs and lows, indicative of a bearish trajectory. A prospective trading suggestion is presented, complete with Entry Point (EP), Take Profit (TP), and Stop Loss (SL) parameters for a short position.
COIN trade ideas
Coin finding supportCoin is finding support on the trend line from October. An important Fib level around 140$ should provide additional support if this does not hold. This selloff was definitely needed as the stock was extremely overextended. I continue to hold my entry from last Jan and do not plan on selling anytime soon.
Long Short Idea: Short Coinbase, Long PfizerThe launch of a Bitcoin ETF could have a significant impact on Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. Some analysts believe that the ETF could lead to a decline in trading volume on Coinbase, as investors may choose to trade Bitcoin through the ETF rather than directly on the exchange. Additionally, the ETF could put pressure on Coinbase's margins, as it would allow investors to borrow Bitcoin for less than they can borrow on the exchange.
Pfizer, on the other hand, is a pharmaceutical company with a strong track record of innovation. The company has a pipeline of promising drugs that could generate significant revenue in the coming years. Pfizer is also well-positioned to benefit from the aging population in the United States and other developed countries.
Short Coinbase
There are several reasons why investors might want to short Coinbase. First, as mentioned above, the launch of a Bitcoin ETF could lead to a decline in trading volume on Coinbase. This would hurt Coinbase's revenue and profits. Second, the ETF could put pressure on Coinbase's margins. As investors borrow Bitcoin for less through the ETF, they will be less willing to pay high fees to borrow Bitcoin on Coinbase. This could squeeze Coinbase's profits.
Long Pfizer
There are also several reasons why investors might want to go long on Pfizer. First, the company has a strong track record of innovation. Pfizer has developed a number of blockbuster drugs, and the company has a pipeline of promising drugs that could generate significant revenue in the coming years. Second, Pfizer is well-positioned to benefit from the aging population in the United States and other developed countries. As the population ages, there will be a greater need for drugs to treat chronic diseases such as cancer and heart disease. Pfizer is a leader in these areas, and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Conclusion
The long-short idea of shorting Coinbase and going long on Pfizer is a contrarian trade. This trade is based on the belief that the launch of a Bitcoin ETF will be bad for Coinbase, but good for Pfizer. This trade is risky, but it has the potential to generate significant returns if the ETF does indeed hurt Coinbase's business.
Disclaimer
Please note that this is not investment advice. Investing in securities involves risk, and you could lose money. Before investing in any security, you should do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance.
Coinbase Update: Moved lower into the box as predictedToday we hit right under the $140 area that I was calling for and then got rejected. According to my count this is the wave 5 of c of (4). As stated earlier I bought a measly 10 shares at about $125. I then set my stop limit @ $114.41 as this count becomes invalidated at that point. Notice how the 0.5 retracement fib is @ $114.39? Do you remember why that is significant? Looking at MACD we are on positive divergence in the micros and the larger time frame.
I don't feel this has much lower to go before it starts to move higher again towards the low $200 area. If we start to get an impulsive move higher soon, I will probably buy either a few more shares or a couple calls.
Coinbase Update: 01/17/2024In my last post I said I thought that Coinbase should be getting another low ideally. This was due to a few reasons, but it appears we may just get that low soon as this little retrace appears corrective. Ideally, we need a mini-c wave higher to the $140 area to finish out this mini-wave 4. We would then drop in wave 5 of c towards the 1.0 @ $124.73.
Quite a few different tickers that I watch appear to point higher soon, rather for a retrace or to be finishing out their respective counts higher. Coinbase is its own chart though and seems to be affected by crypto much more than any other chart. Will this help it or hurt it? Time will tell but one thing seems certain, crypto is exiting its winter and seems to be starting a new bull cycle. With the SEC finally approving BTC ETF's and rumors of an ETH/XRP ETF coming in the future, it will surely get people excited. Coinbase more than any other stock stands to benefit the most. Time will tell.
$COIN COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS Observations indicate that NASDAQ:COIN is currently within the fifth wave of a broader wave C. Notably, yesterday saw a reversal from the 0.5 retracement level, signaling the completion of wave 4 and readiness for the forthcoming wave 5. It is customary for wave 1 and wave 5 to exhibit equality in length, a consequence of the extended wave 3. Anticipating this pattern, I project that wave 5 will reach the 3.618 extension, approximately at $315, thereby concluding both wave 5 and wave C in their entirety.
Coinbase UpdateThe price action to me, in regard to Coinbase, seems obvious. The action since our top of $187.97, has been corrective without a doubt. We have since carved out the a-b waves and currently headed towards the end of this c wave IMO. We dropped last trading session pretty hard and paused at the larger 1.0 extension & 0.382 retracements fibs. The hard drop is a hallmark of a c-wave as I have stated in the past. I still feel we have a little lower to go according to my target box, but Coinbase is building positive divergence on the micros and the larger timeframes. I don't want us to drop below the 0.5 retracement fib @ $114.39, or this is not likely wave (4), and I would need to return to the drawing board. Therefore, the two highest probability endpoints are the smaller 1.0 or 1.236 fibs @ $124.73-$116.96. I'm not saying we can't drop lower, but these are the areas I will be looking at for buying some shares and possibly calls. I will update with any trades made per the usual.
Friendly Reminder: Beginning March 1st (~7 weeks), I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view.
Coinbase Breakdown them BounceLooks like Coinbase put in a head and shoulders. These are the highs for the past year and a half. The calculated lower target is the bottom of the second yellow arrow which, if it bounces there, would create a parallel channel along with the upsloping orange line (My chart has the corresponding lower orange line as well in anticipation of this bounce. Not sure if this will play out because I'm still learning but if it does it will give me some confidence in my chart analysis skills. Does this look probable to you guys?
Coin breakdownIf you have followed along this is my second call of the Coin local top in the last year. My first price target is the dashed red line and a more bearish scenario would be the Fib below around 118$. I did enter this stock spot around 40$ so am sitting pretty regardless. I do like to buy puts when I think the stock is way over-extended, this rewards those who are patient. I was able to do this with Solana as well. My most bearish target is 115$, but black swans are possible, this is a healthy market correction, and many Grayscale holders are redeeming and selling their BTC which is just a short term challenge. Do remember, Coinbase is the custodian for Blackrock's BTC ETF and they must have a lucrative setup going on here.
Coinbase Update: wave 1 of c complete?As said in my update earlier, the BTC ETF getting approval from the SEC helped propel Coinbase up to hit a more normal b wave target and then got rejected. To the untrained eye one would assume this is just volatile price action and nothing more. Which, yes, it is volatile price action, but it happened for a reason.
Remember how I always say structure is the most important thing when trying to place a count? Well, a waves can either be a 3-wave or 5-wave count. Look at the a wave I have labeled, it ended up carving a 5-wave structure followed by what is ALWAYS a 3-wave count for b. Then we made a mini-5-wave structure that I am calling 1 of c. This "normally" would be followed by a 3-wave structure for wave 2 of c, and then another mini-5-wave down should follow for 3 of c. C waves, however, can also be either a 3-wave or 5-wave structure. That being said, there is a possibility this is a mini-a-wave with a b wave to follow. This makes it very difficult to differentiate between a 3-wave vs. 5-wave structure for c. The hidden clues are usually found in a few different places with MACD being the primary place to distinguish the two.
This all being said, I expect us to move higher in a 3-wave move very soon, if not tomorrow, rather it being for wave 2 of c or wave b. Either way, I don't want us to raise higher than $163.78. That would at minimum invalidate a 5-wave c and make it less likely, though not impossible, for it to be a 3-wave c. B waves can go above a wave tops, but it is much rarer.
I'm not saying we won't drop a tad bit more before raising for our next retrace higher, but if we do it shouldn't be much. Hopefully this all makes sense to y'all. After March 1st, I plan on going into deep detail such as this and explaining things much more thoroughly often. I will also be answering any and all questions at that time. If you have questions for me now, I will answer most of them I'm sure, but you will get un-filtered answers from me after that date of March 1st. Good luck y'all!!
$COIN Short Put Prior to Earnings -1 $110 put 2/16Based on the amount of premium involved I am expecting assignment!
But happy to own and sell calls for the foreseeable future.
NASDAQ:COIN
Short Put
Prior to Earnings
-1 $110 put 2/16
Credit = $455
Breakeven = $105.45 (20% fall from current sp).
35 days to expiration.
(Earnings 2/20/24)
COINBASE-SELL strategy weekly chartso far the strategy is working and we keep the profit order around $ 122.00. The stochastic is negative, and it means potentially to see below $ 100 mark medium-term view.
Strategy SELL @ 145-155.00 and take profit @ 122.00 and SL now @ $ 171.00. Please note that any bounce is a SELL opportunity until we have tested $ 100.00 is my personal viewpoint.