DBK trade ideas
Today's DB VS last year's GLENIt looks bad news for DB is everywhere. We can see DB's big drop with large volume yesterday. However, its close price is still above 11. Compared with GLEN's big day on 28/09/2015, it looks large volume at low price zone is not bad news. It is impossible for the professionals to short DB from here, then who are the buyers?
Of course, there is a big risk to purchase DB now as there is no significant reverse signal based on the chat. The good choice is to wait for a double bottom. But, I still want to try now with a small amount, with stop at 11.
DB SR MAPLong:
- Lower band of the local emerging channel
- Lower band of BB
- Previous local bottom
- 50% Fib retracement from the last top
- the volume in the last drop is not significant
Short:
- dominant bearish channel upper band
- failed breakout from the dominant bearish channel
- RSI is not oversold
- RSI breaked down the lower band of the emerging RSI channel
It is not an easy decision to go short or long. Much depend on the global news.
Conservative long entry: at S2, TP at R1, better R/R
Agressive long entry: At S1, TP at R1
Scalping short DB with cautinDB failed to break its previous day's high on friday which leads me to believe that in the following week it should head south towards $13.8. Still don't expect major downside movement as many institutions stand by DB ready to support it and we currently sit at atl for DB. At this point you could trade DB as a "too big to fail" institution and ride the stock up to $15.5 but the timing must be impecable.
DBK: Time at mode target caps upside at 15.23Updating my previous posts about Deutsche Bank, it seems like we'll see a bullish phase in equities, with a rally in Deutsche Bank shares for the next few days. It'll be interesting to see how it evolves after the time at mode time and price target is met. Keep an eye on either 15.23 being hit, and October 27th.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Deutsche Bank Oct'16Heading into trend line resistance. Model predicts we will see an eventual rally into 17.70 that could be a useful sell.
Deutsche Bank is not looking goodA new leg down is beginning, possibly w3 of 5. Dipping below 6EUR/share is possible.
$DB - Reversal time?Lots going on here. Island top candle into R2, .764 fib, and the 200dma on 4hr. Gap just above at 14.48 and R3. RSI reaching overbought with volume not confirming. I see reversal..
DBK, BUY THE RUMOUR .To big to fail comes to mind. they will never let this size of ship sink.
yearly downtrend broken from a rumour that investors will help fill capital requirements.
us seeking a clinton win, risk on
Bought at 12.840
stop at 12.00 just below recent lower low.
daily 61% fib retracement is the target. but this may have room to run
DB & TED Rate AnalysisThis indicates to me that there are major problems coming post election. DB have a huge amount of systematic risk through their bond derivative exposure, which will cause a major crisis if heavy deleveraging occurs. Italian banks are also heavily under threat as MdP has already had to be semi bailed out by the Atalanta Fund (DB holds a lot of Italian bank debt exposure as well).
Interesting and scary times ahead.
DB is not a bunkrupt in my opinion!There are a lot of talks last year about close bankruptcy of DB. Some charts were published which show similar character of DB drop to Lehman fall from hights of 2008.
I don't believe in it. Not reason to prepare everyone for bunkruptcy of a Great Bank for a such long time. I think that we could see something really interesting here.
Anyway, be very carefully with it!
Short book: DB - Broke below KEL, fade the short squeezeToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode').
We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies.
See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Triple Bottom Power vs. Trend-Dynamic! The Sentiment is still bearish.
At present, we have nearly reached an interesting Action Point @ ~ 11€
Breaking through this Point would be really ugly !
The CRR for a longtry is very inviting - as always when we are based near an Action Point - but the likelihood is not very high.-
The likelihood for a trend-confirmation is much higher, so i would tend to short it!
Good luck!
Best Regards Mary
DB: Contrarian long opportunityI'm pretty sure 97% of people were short DB lately, and pessimistic about its outlook.
I was on that bandwagon, and shorting every rally for some time, but the latest developments made me change my mind on it. I think we have a great opportunity to long the stock here, if not already in that is.
I'm in with a 0.25% risk position, and will add gradually to it, until I reach 1% exposure.
We have to monitor the activity here, but it's possible this was a terminal wedge or ending diagonal pattern, in Elliott Wave parlance.
We can add to longs on a break of Friday's close, to the upside, risking a drop under the lowest low, and add more once we break above the earnings resistance above, at around 13.72, using the same stop loss.
We can also buy dips under 12.38 but I think it's unlikely to happen here. We need to reach 14.89 within 3 days to confirm the bullish momentum in the short term.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Deutsche Bank failed to reach deal with DojWe saw rumors of a deal that will be conclued between DB and the Doj september 30rd, pumping DB hard, bloomberg revealed it's false.
Prepare to short at the opening, and anticipate a gap down.
Target 9.89, can go deeper.
$DB - Hot potato until trades below 13,70-13,90!Short it? Not a good idea. It was at 25 and at 20, but here risk reward is not the best.
Go long? Very dangerous! DB is clearly not yet out of the woods. Trend is absolutely bearish.
Best idea is not to touch it at all. If you want to trade banks, I will have better idea later, how to do it with a more diversified, relative value trade spread trade.
Weekly:
- Massive bearish trend and bearish Ichimoku setup. Bearish until price trades below Kijun Sen, which stays at 13,70+ right now.
- EWO and MACD have both developed a massive positive divergence, but as you see these divergences can last for very long time on a heavy trending market! You have to keep in mind, that divergences alone can not be used for a trade entry! Divergence can disappear in two ways: further break down of price hits indicators too, and kills the divergence, or finally price reverses up (in our case bears get squeezed on shorts). Only in the second case should you try a swing buy, even then with very strict risk management (small size, strict stops).
- Heikin-Ashi signal shows market got very boring this week :-). Indecision at Tenkan (9 weeks average)
Daily:
- Don't execute a strategic buy until you have a bullish signal! Personally me I don't like to own anything as a major position until it is bearish. Like it or not, Ichimoku setup and trend is clearly bearish here!
What's more, price has just retested first bearish support. It would not be difficult to push lower from here. We can not say anything positive about $DB shares, until at least it makes a higher low in next dip. Frankly speaking it can not be considered even as bullish, until trades below 13,90!
- Heikin-Ashi warning signal: haDelta shows swing momentum loss at Kijun Sen. May turn lower again!
- EWO is still bearish.
- 10 EUR level will be extremely important in coming days, weeks. If that breaks, possible channel target will be 6 EUR price. There we could start to think about it as a binary option game :-)
If anything, I'd be still short. For the record, I do not have any position in it.
Deutsche Bank: Reaction at the 10.00 area...Back in February I was speculating on a possible new banking crisis in the making...
This week DB was in the media alot, could be the start, or not....
If DB fails then we're likely in for a bankrupcy cascade in the banking sector and a deep recession not like any we've witnessed in recent decades..., especially in Europe...
On the other hand: the 'insiders' often create situations like this so that everyone else starts selling and they can start building longs at ultralow prices...
No way of knowing what the strategy of the ruling elite will be and what will happen so the only way to move forward is to try and read the charts...
This is what I see: we got bearish trend continuation after the triangle broke and we got to the 1.27 ext. of the breakout move which was at the 10.00 area. There we saw a decent bullish reaction on the last daily candle...
I was hoping to end up a little lower though for a really awesome buying opportunity, not sure if we'll get there now, we'll see...
Trade cautiously, anything can happen if real panic sets in...
