DBK trade ideas
DB: Quarterly downtrend in playDB has a quarterly 'Time at mode' downtrend active, that aims for 10.34 to be hit before July 2017.
If you are a frequent 'Key hidden levels' chatroom user, and a subscriber to Tim West's indicator, you should be short DB from around $17, like we are. We are now trailing stops down, but adding an entry here isn't a bad idea at all. Risk a rally to 15.21, and target 10.34. Tim West's analysis calls for DB at $0 in the not too distant future, so keep that in mind as well.
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Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
deutsche bank got a bad review at the economistgoing short; bad reviews on their compliance information
Trending Now Update: DB Still In Down-TrendThis is an update from ideas I published 15 days ago. There has been an attempt to rally-DB, but DB-continues its down-trend at every attempt to break through a down-trending 89 day moving average. I have shown five such failures on the above chart. In my opinion DB-has been warning of banking woes in Europe. The uncertainty of Brexit now clouds the future of the-Euro. Will Germany leave next? France? How many countries will leave the-EU?
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP.
"Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading mostly BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line.
4. The thick red conversion line is moving SHARPLY LOWER. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING SHARPLY DOWN. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is not strong enough to rally-DB on oversold readings. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is VERY WEAK. 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far lower right on the chart, around $14. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (jaws), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are OPENED, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a NOW AWAKE, FEEDING alligator, and the alligator is feeding into the DOWN-TREND.There may be a closing of the alligator's jaws, but I feel they will re-open in a new down-phase when the price action fails at the 89 day moving average.
I have bought puts on-DB many times (no current position). I plan to go short DB-if the price makes its way back to the falling 89 day moving average. It has FAILED at this point many times and will likely fail again. DB-remains firmly in a down-trending channel.
I would like to close with two quotes from the late, great Martin Zweig:
1. “It's OK to be wrong; it's unforgivable to stay wrong.”
2. “To me, the "tape" is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
Dancing with DeutscheIn these unprecedented times of monetary intervention, the negative rates employed by the central bank; either here or abroad, often put extreme stress on banking institutions to create revenue along with increased regulation but recent activity in the Eurozone suggests that some banks may have been incorrectly priced from recent restructuring attempts.
To understand how to trade this chart:
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Trade observation.Keeps going down on the day..Cost of insuring against default of Deutsche Bank's sub debt is now higher than in 2008, when Lehman went under. I'm thinking this bank will be going under soon..
Trade observation...I'm not trading this however I want to point out this stock is whirling rapidly down the toilet. If you have money in this,cut your losses and get out. Cost of insuring against default of Deutsche Bank's sub debt is now higher than in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed.
Caught in the neutral Triangle - Waitung for BreakoutThe shares of Deutsche Bank moves volatile sideways since the low of February 2016 @ 13.0€ - a symmetrical triangle appears . DB commutes to the 2006-LOW @ 15,4€. Recently again the stock fell back into the vicinity of the lower edge of the triangle. This limitation runs currently at 14.05 EUR. From this support line, the stock is trying to solve for a few days.
In the short-term view i see upside potential toward the upper edge of the triangle. Thus, the share could rise to approximately 16.20€.
The Zone withgin the triangle seems to be neutral. (orange)
Larger Trend impulses arising presumably with a breakout from the triangle,
-On the upside: Stoppbuy above 16,90€, respective 17,5 € sl, below the triangle, possible TPs: TP1: 18.8 / TP2: 18.8 / TP3: 20
-On the downside: Stoppsell below 14€ with SL above the triangle, TP1 13,4 / TP2: 13 /TP worst case: 10!
Trending Now: DB, Deutsche Bank, Toxic ChartTrending Now Installment Number Three: Not all trends are up!
Three months ago, when DB-was $18, I published this:
"Deutsche Bank will most likely continue its decline from its all time high of $125 several years ago. This decline has been slow and painful, but steady.
I feel this stock is heading lower." (end of my quote).
DB-continues its down-trend. Will this drag the European banks down with it? Is there a domino effect for US-Banks if Europe's banks get weaker? The XLF-has not done well at all.
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP.
"Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving SHARPLY LOWER. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING SHARPLY DOWN. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is FAILING.. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is VERY WEAK. 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far lower right on the chart, around $16. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (jaws), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are WIDE OPENED, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a NOW AWAKE, FEEDING alligator, and the alligator is feeding into the DOWN-TREND.
Trending Now....Examples of UP charts and DOWN charts:
For my first few "Trending Now" features I wanted to show you one STRONG UP TREND-ADC, and one STRONG DOWN TREND-DB.
I have bought puts on-DB many times (no current position). I plan to go short DB-if the price makes its way back to the falling 89 day moving average.
I would like to close with three quotes from Phyllis Diller:
1. “Cleaning your house while your kids are still growing up is like shoveling the walk before it stops snowing.”
2. “A smile is a curve that sets everything straight.”
3. “Housework can't kill you, but why take a chance?”
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
Deutsche Bank: Down to the 2008-2009 lows?Deutsche Bank to continue its decline?
Brexit caused it to gap, we'll see if it fills right away or not..., I suspect it will....
We have a clear triangle here..., it can break both ways..., if the downtrend continues we could be on our way towards the all-time lows..., we do have some divergence so we might as well go up...
We'll see what happens!
Short or Put DBSoros shorted this stock, they are in a huge mess. I think this offers a good downside opportunity to profit. The Jan17 13puts are going for around 1.65 making BE at about 11.35 by January 2017...However this company could go BK and it is a risk trade as we don't know what games they play to keep these alive....I would take a small position and hold through summer and know that it could be a total loss so don't wipe out, but could be a great gainer
DB (Deutsche Bank). Lowest value in more than 15 yearsDB has already lost 40% of stock capitalization since the beginning of the year, it is at the lowest levels since 2000s and already lower than 2009.
Save your money if you are a DB client! The party is about to start
Deutsche Bank in the wake of negative DAX! Short!Bearish Break out. Not good for deutsche bank's stock quotation...
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2017 Germany bails out their neighbors DDD- This is what it looks like when a whole bunch of countries have monetary polices centralized by one countries needs. Beg thy neighbor will be the theme of 2017 in Europe. Wait until Germany is forced to bail out Portugal, Spain and Greece DB goes to zero.
$DB longRate chatter could continue to act as bullish catalyst for all banks. Deutsche Bank trades close to its 52 week low of 14.78, WELL under its book value. I think $DB presents the most appealing risk/reward out of all major banks. Going to set my stop under 52 week low let it ride.
SL @14.5
TP @ 100/200 MA
$DB flaggingWatch for a break in either direction. Name is cheap to book value but could be a bear flag.
Nearing Another Oversold Stage, Looking for EntryPrevious pattern, Inverted Head and Shoulder, breakout was diverted by strong resistance around 36.70. Since the previous pattern busted, price has been coming down fast, we've already broke below the neckline support and are heading towards the previous low where the Head of the Inverted H&S stood at 27.85.
Double Bottom Possibility
To characterize as a Double Bottom Pattern, the second low can not go 3 degrees below the previous low. 27.00 is about where one would put in stop if we do spend time below $28.00.
Increased EU QE for June-July months shall help soften the blow if Greece should default on debt next month. However, DB does not hold much Greece bonds, but the German bank has caught a negative fever by European investors fearing the looming Greece default.
