FSLR trade ideas
Super Long Term ForecastSolar stocks will probably catch on again in the future so this is one possible scenario... a VERY BULLISH scenario! Throw $10 grand in FSLR at $5 / share, and take early retirement in comfort at your lake house 15 years later =c) ...of course make sure to reinvest at wave (IV) for another 10 fold increase!!!
#FSLR: Opportunity To Short!Solarcity had a bear impulse leg and some sideways movement created a double top and bears are stepping in, looks like the bears are around. Worth keeping an eye on this one. Hope you all have a tested trading strategy to trade this move when it starts
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FSLR BREAKING DOWN ON WEEKLY; GREAT SHORT R/RFSLR has been behaving very well within technical levels on the weekly, and has been trading in a range for a few years. A strong weekly trendline has just broken, and if it can make NEW LOWS on the daily, it will head to 45.43, next area of support where it will probably bounce. a decent stop would be above the dotted trendline above.
I could see it crashing through 40.52, which is huge weekly support, testing from below, then heading to 33 area in a few months. This will take a long time to play out.
let me know your thoughts.
#FSLR: Possible Bottom And Base For RallyPrice has based at the lows hitting the support trend line where price has accumulated and formed a base where upside is now likely
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When you get too close to the sun... I made an index summing up three big US solar companies to try and see what's going on with this market and most importantly why isn't it soaring high like everyone's expecting... The reason is probably hidden somewhere in the regulation wars and the single companies financial health. There are plenty of articles around to read up on this. Somebody suggests a correlation between oil price and solar: low oil prices makes fossil energy too competitive and undermines solar. However, when you compare oil prices the correlation looks weak.
Overall the solar market is still technically a bull market in a wide consolidation moment, but the recent yo-yo makes it extremely dangerous for investors to hop on the so-called "solarcoaster".
Looking for an entry in this market is complicated business. Does anyone know what could be a catalyst to get us out of this consolidation?
#FSLR-Update: Huge Downside Seen, Holding Position! #FirstSolarTraders,
Made HUGE profits with FSLR (See related ideas) and we are still holding position. Looks like there could be more downside here, and we could see further shorts into the bottom of the long term range. We made over 27 percent of First solar's entire stock price so far!
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#FSLR: BEAR CONVICTION SEEN, EXPECTING NEW LOWS! #FIRSTSOLAR Traders,
Expecting some nice lows off of a compelling bearish engulfing signal and a clear crisp bearish sentiment. We will see a 3 wave cyclic move here.
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#FSLR: BEAR CONVICTION SEEN, EXPECTING NEW LOWS! #FIRSTSOLARTraders,
UPDATE: We are in the money, well done to anyone who took this short with me. We are waiting for more downside now. Expecting some nice lows off of a compelling bearish engulfing signal and a clear crisp bearish sentiment. We will see a 3 wave cyclic move here.
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#FSLR: Bear Conviction Seen, Expecting New Lows! #FirstsolarTraders,
Expecting some nice lows off of a compelling bearish engulfing signal and a clear crisp bearish sentiment. We will see a 3 wave cyclic move here.
---Interested in joining my professional signals group, or receiving my professional online trading tuition? Message me here on Trading view or email me with the email address on my Trading view profile page---
Regards
Tom
Bearish as long as price is below 75$Topping formation, triple top rejection, oscillators overbought and diverging. Minimum expectation is to test the lower triangle boundary. Next target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
FSLR -- MAR 4TH 51/54/70.5/73.5 IRON CONDORGoing small here, given the fact that the solar space has been a bit of wild of late ... .
Metrics:
FSLR March 4th 51/54/70/73.5
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $71/contract
Buying Power Effect: $229/contract
Notes: Ordinarily, I pass on stuff that doesn't have at least a 1.00 credit in it. I could naturally go short strangle, but don't want to tie up the buying power if the thing goes awry (a 53.5/71.5 short strangle would get you a 1.44 credit). That being said, I don't have a ton of stuff going on (mostly waiting for longer-term setups to play out), so I figured I'd play it just to keep some buying power engaged ... . Look to take it off at 50% max profit.
THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- HD, FSLR, CRM, LOW, TGT, BIDUHere's are next weeks earnings plays that I'm thinking of playing via options, assuming the implied volatility rank "stars" line up correctly ... :
HD: announces on Tues 2/23 before market open.The rank is 55, the implied 32, neither of which is that great. If IV doesn't pop, I'll pass.
FSLR: announces on Tues 2/23 after market close. With a rank of 72 and an implied of 69, it's good to go .
LOW: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Its rank is 65; implied, 35, so it's kind of the edge. Like HD, its volatility needs to pop a bit for me to play.
TGT: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Rank: 57; implied 33. Needs to pop.
CRM: announces on Wed 2/24 after market close. Also good to go with a rank of 71 and an implied of 60.
BIDU: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. It's good to go with rank at 72, implied at 60.
EOG: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Good to go, but I don't think I've played this one recently, which is surprising because it's an oil and gas play, and that sector's been hot volatility wise.
HLF: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Also good to go, rank and implied volatility wise.
I'll post setups the day immediately preceding the announcement if it looks like they're still good plays.
FSLR -- EARNINGS PLAYS VIA OPTIONSFSLR announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the final hours of the NY session.
Here's two setups, one of which is an undefined risk trade; the other, defined:
FSLR March 4th 55.5/73.5
Probability of Profit: 74%
Max Profit: $144 per contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
FSLR March 4th 53/56/72/75 Iron Condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $79 per contract
Buying Power Effect: $221/contract
Notes: I had to goof around with the iron condor setup, since the strikes "thin out" at 75 and increase to 5 dollar increments, making it difficult to set your short strikes at the 85% probability OTM strike with your long options 3-4 strikes out from that, so the max profit isn't what I'd ordinarily like to see.
FSLR in danger zoneI like FSLR as a stock, but it has not been acting well after SCTY's earnings. Today, it finally broke its uptrend. Right now the stock is extended. I am looking for a short if the stock bounces back to the trend break line
#FSLR: Bear Move In Play, Expecting Lows To Bottom Of Range!Traders,
A great set up given by First Solar. Really like this one. Expecting a compelling target measure move to the lows based on nice technical, and fundamental momentum. With both arms participating creating a larger reaction to see target hit.
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Best of luck,
Tom
