Halliburton Spike, Subsequent Re-test; Failure: Re-position nowHalliburton showed strong signs of a breakout when it spiked over 16/share. It turned out be a "pump fake" by $HAL and the entire $USOIL industry. Terrible news regarding a "Second" (See: actual first!) spike of the COVID-19 pandemic has stalled further reopnings in many states, and the US overall reported a record number of cases yesterday and in through today. $USOIL is trending down over 2% and could reach as low as 35 per barrel by the close of this week. This, along with Halliburton's steady decline, are leaving the window open for a very strong short.
A short, here, would be in mind with re-positioning and increasing one's holding, as the firm belief is that when the oil industry does reach its full recovery, that Halliburton will be among the first and biggest benefactors. For the interim, however, its value is dicey and many market indicators are showing "SELL" as the popular move here.
$HAL was over 25/share in this calendar year, but has gone as low as just over 5/share, and if COVID truly rears its ugly head a return to that low of a share level is not out of the question. Reasonably, a decent estimate certainly could see it fall below 10/share next week.
That Mar 18-20 nadir may not be re-tested, but it is hardly something that can be ruled out. If further quarantining becomes the route for areas the outbreak rages on in, then the woods that oil appeared to be exiting from are just far more expansive than we may have thought. While many are of the mindset that this pandemic is mostly defeated, the reality in the $USOIL market counteracts that notion as fully untrue. The recovery of $HAL and other oil-related stocks appears, now, to be the longer-term project it was when the $HAL plan was initialized.
