KBC Groep NV (KBC.br) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the Belgium company KBC Group (KBC.br) at daily chart. KBC Group is a Belgian universal multi-channel bank-insurer, focusing on private clients and small and medium-sized enterprises in Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, and Slovakia. The acronym KBC refers to KredietBank and CERA. KBC Group is one of Belgium's major companies and the second-largest bancassurer in the country. As of late 2020, it was the 15th largest bank in Europe by market capitalization. The Triangle has broken through the support line on 01/07/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 50.56 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 58.72 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
KBC decided - as a result of the persistently rising market interest rates and planned interest rate increases by the European Central Bank - to stop charging negative interest for legal entities and companies from 1 September 2022.
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KBC trade ideas
KBC.BR eyeing 65-70 region before restarting the uptrendKBC continues its correction started in Nov ‘21, a solid ER doesn’t have to change that.
So far we had a lower high struct in Jan ‘22, which can be viewed as wave B. Under that ~85 and we were looking downward to complete the C wave.
Now we have another lower high post earning, subwaves circle i and ii of C are firmly in place, projecting down to 70-65 region.
Ideally support ~65 holds although above 60, where the 0.5 retracement of wave (3) coincides with the weekly volume profile POC, target toward 102-108 remains in favor, i.e. beyond the 1.764 extension of (1) and reattempt the ATH struct long ago.
Daily closing under the top of (1) ~56 and 0.618 retracement of (3) ~54, this bullish thesis becomes unlikely.
More details about this correction phase on the daily chart:
TLDR : KBC should go lower first and then higher, so long above 60 = rocket emoji.
Long stop under 54
Short stop above 85
KBC.BR has upside potential in 2022 but long term uncertainOff the covid crash low we were 3 waves up before a correction began, currently retrace to around 0.786 fib.
As long as 60 (the 0.5 fib) hold, I can see upside target 1.382 fib, which is ...surprise surprise... right at the ATH... struck in 2008 just before the GFC crash...
All coincident aside, after 5 waves completion, a bigger degree of correction will occur, the bullish portion of this cycle is probably at its exhaustion.
Fundamentally, KBC is one of the best capitalized banks in continental Europe, can outperform its peers.
The caveat: Financials have been systematically underperforming the market sinds the GFC.
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on KBC(KBC) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below).
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
One green area represents one trade
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example for KBC(KBC) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
Fast EMA Buy=12
Slow SMA Buy=55
Minimum Buy Strength=56
Fast EMA Sell=12
Slow SMA Sell=55
Minimum Sell Strength=95
Trailing Stop (#ATR)=3
Result: 22.7 times better than Buy&Hold strategy
NetProfit: 590%
#Trades: 19
%Profitable: 63%
Buy&HoldProfit: 26%