MPC - undervalued - long ... high oil prices confirmedmany pipes and refineries... what we need in the next few months.
MPC trade ideas
Breakout underway with trend readings, but...Prices have not yet pushed through the 24% extension of the preceding range, which is necessary to confirm that a larger move higher is underway.
Strong ActionVery bullish action here as we clear LT resistance and a big volume push on Friday headline. Sustained RSI helps confirm breakout. Entry would be long half position with a tight stop around 63 based on the daily chart:
MPC Flat Base With Potential BreakoutMPC has been forming a flat base with a potential buy point of 54.69, but a more aggressive trader could enter at 53.65-53.75. Happy Trading!
mpc
MPC on breakout WatchWatch for weekly close above he orange resistance line. RSI needs to continue to find strength. Watch that MACD Cross. Not sure how strong that signal is.
MPC: Long term uptrend signal$MPC has an excellent long term uptrend signal at play here. If not long you should average in over 3 days at least, risking a drop to 43.42, or 3 daily average ranges down. Targets are 89.66 and potentially up to 143.09 in the long run, to be hit by or before Q4 2019.
My mentor, Tim West has been adamant about $MPC's strengt, and so far he's been right. This stock has shown relative strength, selling off less than its peers and rallying more and with lower volatility, indicating that there are some big players involved, buying in the background.
Fundamentals are great for this company, and valuation is compelling, so it's a really low risk trade.
I'd reccomend holding this and $PBF for exposure in this sector.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Doubled-down on my shorts: MPC Triple TopAdded more to my short position for this triple top in $MPC. Long put options. Way overbought.
Self explanatory. Have fun.
Short MPCIf oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run.
The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars.
Important to note that NOT all refiners are trading in tandem. MPC and TSO are down today, while HFC, PSX, and VLO are all up.
Note TSO and HFC report their second quarter 2016 results 8/3.
HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made.
MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play.
I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.)
Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine.
Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals.
There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
MPC Cup & Handle - 7 daysI've been long MPC for a number of reasons. I'm just bored. Quiet day. The most important thing is that it's found a bottom at $29 after free-falling with no support unless you go back to 2012. This stock is down -50% since early Dec 2015.
Disclosure: I am long MPC.
Cash in: No hold weekend for meNo reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell.
MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE FIB LEVELS SINCE MY FIRST MPC FIB POST. You can put a strangle on at 37.00 and 35.00 if you can afford to be that close to the money, but my money is better off elsewhere.
Now, if it rallies to $37.80, that'd make a nice cup formation. MPC has history of cup-and-handle breakout (see older chart).
Now, if you have followed my posts, you will have noticed me repeatedly saying that MPC has a history of bucking the SPY. It has. With that said, it's outside my own personal risk appetite.
Have a good weekend!
Buy or Sell MPC Earnings Rally? I'll let the chart speak for itself.
The chart was drawn prior to today's open.
Time to buy MPC? This is a simple overlay of MPC and OVX. They share an inverse relationship with the most recent cross at the first session of 2016. Since then, OVX has skyrocketed, and MPC tanked eventually finding some support at $29. Previous support is near the high teens, but those are early historical lows.
Since the MPC $29 support, there appears to be a technical base for MPC to rise to $50, at the mid to lower end of analysts price targets for this stock.
There is more upside to being long MPC than being short OVX. What I'm saying is that OVX need not cross with MPC for the refiner's stock to rise. What I'm saying is MPC is oversold, and OVX is one reason to go long this stock.
Stay Long MPCIf you went bullish on calls per my previous post, you are enjoying a nice pop today. My time horizon is longer so I am holding until $38.75 (the next fib level). The MA just crossed and I want that to marinate for a few sessions. You should be just playing with house money now if you bought the day or day after I posted.
This is technicals-only trade devoid of any fundamentals if that had to be said for this website! The narrative is refiners have been oversold for the past couple weeks. The market has realized that now. I'm not paying attention to anything in action in CL or any news about Nigeria. That is all noise to me.
The only thing I'm paying attention to is that MA cross and the two fib lines that define my stop/sell positions.
Buy MPC callsGet em while they're cheap! You might find cheaper premiums on HFC as they nose-dived yesterday, but MPC has stronger fundamentals IMO.
And a reminder like always, MPC has a history of bucking the market the market: SPY.
In regard to fundamentals, this is an oversold reaction to MPC and other refiners' posting losses for Q1 2016. We all knew the refining margins honeymoon would come to a close eventually. This is a response not in rising crude prices, but rather a response to the lack of rise of gasoline prices (the other leg that makes up the refining crack spread).
BREAKOUT? MPC Fib Re-DrawnPlease compare this to my previous post where I had drawn the Fib retracement. I have redrawn this to capture the double bottoms. I was not sure if it could break out from it's previous fib level and so far this previous retracement model is holding up.
I have said this many times, but will say it again. MPC has a history of bucking the market and is doing so today. In fact, all refiners are selling off today. SPY is flat but not MPC, VLO, or PSX.
MPC momentum losses steamToday's was the first breakout for MPC from the fib retracement. It is topping out back to the January lows. This MAY be a point to where the trade switches from fundamentals before it trades off of something technical. Just general discussion.
I sold today. Please comment.
MPC hits top fib line. Sold.I was long at $36 handle on Tuesday. I sold at $38.70 which it is straddling right now at the top of the fib retracement. MPC is outperforming other refiners today like VLO, HFC, PSX.
There is no technical support above $38.70. Either it breaks out to $50+ or rather I am looking to buy another dip below this fib line if there is no sustained upside support for the next few sessions.
MPC bucks the mkt againYesterday MPC closed at $36.47 on a late rally exactly at its 2nd fib line for which there is previous support at that level. It's been hard for this stock to breakout past $37 with analyst price targets in the $50s. It needs momentum.
