What Is Stage Analysis in Trading?Stage analysis is a powerful technique in trading that segments market trends into distinct phases, each offering unique opportunities and challenges. Developed by Stan Weinstein, this method helps traders understand and anticipate market movements. This article delves into the four stages of this analysis, offering insights into how traders apply these concepts, particularly in the context of stock trading.
Understanding Stage Analysis
Stan Weinstein’s stage analysis, a concept introduced in his seminal work "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets," offers a structured approach to evaluating market phases. Stage analysis in stocks divides the market cycle into four distinct phases. Each represents a specific phase in a stock's lifecycle, characterised by unique price movements and investor behaviour.
Weinstein's methodology is rooted in the identification of these stages through technical analysis, focusing on price action and volume. By discerning the current phase of a stock, traders gain insights into its probable future trajectory. This analytical framework assists traders in making more informed decisions about entry and exit points, aligning their strategies with the market's natural rhythm. Notably, it can be used in both intraday trading and long-term investing.
Below, we’ll walk through the four stages of Weinstein’s methodology. To better understand the topic, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Stage 1: The Basing Area
In Weinstein stage analysis, the basing stage, or stage 1, marks the beginning of a stock's life cycle. This period is characterised by a period of consolidation after a previous downtrend. Prices typically fluctuate within a narrow range, indicating a lack of clear direction as the market sentiment shifts from negative to neutral. This transition is often overlooked in stage analysis trading, as it doesn't present immediate opportunities for significant gains.
During the basing stage, trading volumes generally diminish, reflecting a reduction in selling pressure. As buying volume increases, accumulation-distribution tools like on-balance volume (OBV) tend to bottom out and move higher, typically in tandem with price. OBV helps in tracking volume flow, offering insights into whether the volume is flowing in or out of an asset.
Additionally, investors watch for a gradual flattening of the price’s moving averages, a sign that the downward momentum is waning. It's a period of accumulation for savvy investors who recognise the potential for future upside. However, traders are cautious as stocks can linger in this phase for an extended period, and premature entry can lead to capital being tied up in inactive investments.
Traders employing Weinstein's method use this phase to prepare for potential entry points, keeping a close watch on stocks that show signs of breaking out of their base. The successful identification of a market transitioning from Stage 1 to Stage 2 – the Advancing Stage – may position traders to capitalise on the early beginnings of a new uptrend.
Stage 2: Advancing
In stock stage analysis, stage 2, known as the advancing stage, is where investors may see the potential gains. This phase begins when a stock breaks out from the basing stage (stage 1) with notable volume. It signifies a transition from a neutral to bullish market sentiment as more investors start acknowledging the market’s potential.
A key characteristic of Stage 2 is the sustained upward movement in the stock's price, often accompanied by increasing trading volumes. This rise in interest confirms the growing interest and commitment from investors, reinforcing the trend's strength. During this phase, the price typically moves above its key moving averages, such as the 30-period moving average, which acts as a dynamic support.
OBV is also useful in this period. An increasing OBV alongside rising prices is a positive sign, indicating that the upward price movements are supported by strong volume, thus validating the trend.
Traders focus on stocks that maintain their price above key moving averages and show a consistent increase in OBV in this phase. Such alignment of price and volume dynamics provides a more robust confirmation for continuing the trade in the advancing direction.
Stage 3: Top Area
Stage 3, known as the top area, marks a significant shift in the stock's cycle. This phase signifies the transition from an uptrend to a potential downtrend, characterised by a levelling off of the stock’s price movement after its advance in Stage 2. It's a period of distribution where early investors start to take potential returns, and new investors may enter based on the stock's past performance, not its future potential.
During this phase, price movements become less definitive, often moving sideways and creating a resistance level that the stock struggles to exceed. Price begins to hover around its key moving averages, such as the 30-period moving average, without a clear direction. This indecisiveness in price action is a crucial indicator of the weakening momentum.
Volume analysis during Stage 3 is vital. A divergence between price and volume starts to emerge; while prices might still be high, interest often shows a noticeable decrease. This reduced volume hints at a lack of conviction among investors, assuming that the stock may not sustain its previous upward trajectory.
Traders monitoring stocks in Stage 3 should be cautious. It’s a time to closely watch for signs of a breakdown or a continuation of the trend, as the stock may either revert to Stage 1 or unexpectedly surge into a renewed Stage 2.
Stage 4: The Declining Phase
Stage 4 marks the declining phase, where a stock transitions from a period of distribution to a clear downtrend. This period is characterised by a sustained drop in the stock’s price, often initiated by a decisive break below key support levels and moving averages, like the 30-period moving average.
The declining phase is typically accompanied by increasing trading volumes, reflecting a growing consensus among investors that the stock’s peak performance is behind it. This phase can be accelerated by negative news or poor earnings reports, further driving down the price.
The on-balance volume (OBV) is again a critical tool in this phase. A declining OBV indicates that selling pressure is increasing, reinforcing the downtrend. This downtrend is marked by lower highs and lower lows in both price and volume, signalling weakening investor confidence and diminishing interest in the stock.
For traders, stage 4 is a period of high caution. It's often considered a signal to exit positions to avoid further losses. Short-selling strategies may be employed by more experienced traders who seek to capitalise on the market’s downward trajectory. However, it's essential to approach this phase with a clear risk management strategy, as the volatility can lead to rapid changes in price.
The Bottom Line
Mastering stage analysis may equip traders with a structured approach to navigate the stock market's ebb and flow. By understanding and applying the principles of each stage, traders can potentially make more informed decisions, aligning their strategies with market trends. For those ready to apply these insights in real-world trading, opening an FXOpen account offers a platform to implement stage analysis techniques effectively in a dynamic trading environment.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MSFT trade ideas
MSFT WILL THE RALLY END?is it the medium line tag for the win? than bears need to start selling mstf
or will we just yeet thorugh there
MSFT: Week of Feb 5Bearish Heikin ashi setup here putting the pullback target as a move to the low range box.
From there, likely just a buy the dip sitch again.
Of course watch the conditionals, because with the lunacy of the current bull market, bearish HA setups have frequently failed, let the threshold dictate your move, but just from the HA setup we really should see it pullback to that low target box.
Safe trades!
Msft updateNote that all this trade I took them last year March, some amstil holding for the next 5 to 10 years msft as a leader in US stocks already breakout n flying all the way followed by apple
MSFT $560+ - Energy Point + Fib ConfluenceNASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft is breaking out after putting in a base from November to early January.
Plotting a Modified Schiff fork, we see the base and breakout took place right after both passing and retesting the median line.
Adding Fibonacci extensions and a secondary fork, an energy point appears at the intersection of the ML-H, ML, and 1.0 Fibonacci extension.
It has already surpassed the previous all-time highs, put in a base, and broken through this base.
However, this idea is not perfect.
Ideally, the break-out would have taken place with heavier volume.
I'll be keeping an eye on volume going forward.
Another positive weekly candle with above average volume will really boost my confidence.
If everything goes as planned, we should see MSFT reach ~$560 by August 2024.
With a stop below the November-Jan base, we have 1:4 Risk/Reward ratio trade. (Screenshot below)
Long MSFT
Fat_Fat
Microsoft's Astonishing Transformation into a Tech TitanAs Satya Nadella marks his tenth year at the helm of Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), the tech industry stands witness to one of the most remarkable corporate turnarounds in history. Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) has evolved from a slow-moving software giant into a global powerhouse, with a particular focus on cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI). This article delves into the key factors driving Microsoft's resurgence, the transformative decisions made by Nadella, and the company's current standing in the market.
1. Financial Triumphs: A Decade of Stunning Growth
Satya Nadella assumed the role of Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) CEO in 2014, and since then, the company's stock has experienced a meteoric rise of over 1,000%. This growth surpasses the broader S&P 500, highlighting the exceptional performance of Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) under Nadella's leadership. The company's market value has now surged to a staggering $3 trillion, surpassing even its longtime rival, Apple.
2. Strategic Shifts: Cloud Computing and AI Take Center Stage
One of Nadella's first strategic moves was to pivot away from Microsoft's traditional reliance on the Windows operating system. Instead, he directed resources towards building up the Azure cloud computing platform, a decision that has paid off handsomely. Additionally, Nadella wisely steered Microsoft away from ill-fated attempts to compete in the smartphone market, focusing on areas of strength and future potential.
3. Cultural Transformation: From Brash to Collaborative
Beyond reshaping Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) business strategy, Nadella engineered a profound cultural shift within the company. Moving away from the brash external reputation and internal bickering of the past, Nadella fostered a more collaborative and inclusive approach. His leadership style, described as collegial and measured, has been a key factor in Microsoft's internal cohesion and external success.
4. Accessibility Advocacy: A Personal Touch
Nadella's commitment to the accessibility of technology goes beyond corporate strategy. Informed by personal experience—raising a son who was visually impaired, quadriplegic, and had cerebral palsy—Nadella has championed initiatives to make technology more inclusive. His personal touch was evident at the CES gadget show, where he showed genuine interest in a small startup's product designed for deaf and hard-of-hearing gamers.
5. AI Leadership: Shaping the Future of Technology
While Nadella emphasized the importance of artificial intelligence throughout his tenure, Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) recent heights are attributed to its emergence as an AI leader. The company, in close partnership with OpenAI, has set the agenda for how AI tools can be integrated into work and society, reinforcing Microsoft's position at the forefront of technological innovation.
6. Challenges and Future Outlook
Despite the undeniable success, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) is not without challenges. Antitrust scrutiny has resurfaced, reminiscent of earlier years with Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer. However, Nadella's confident handling of these challenges, including a federal court hearing, showcases his resilience and commitment to leading Microsoft through any storm.
Conclusion:
As Satya Nadella celebrates a decade at the helm of Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), the company's astonishing transformation stands as a testament to visionary leadership and strategic acumen. From financial triumphs and strategic shifts to cultural transformation and advocacy for accessibility, Nadella has not only revitalized Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) but has positioned it as a global leader in the ever-evolving tech landscape. The coming years promise to be equally compelling as Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) continues to shape the future of technology under the steady guidance of Satya Nadella.
MSFT | Strong bullish trend, stay long.Observation Summary: Multiple bullish signals as compared to bearish hence we have a good oppertunity to either stay long or enter the trade for a target of 455. Instant entry is possible at 411 or put buy stop at 417.
Anticipation:
~ Strong bullish trend continuation as there are not bearish divergences on RSI or Volumes on 1D.
~ The recent earning report was very positive, enhancing investor confidence.
~ Breakout did happen on retangular flag patter (a bullish continuation pattern) that also concides with strong support (363) and resistance (384.27) levels.
~ Price is now moving toward all times high resistance level of 416.59 and I strongly anticipate it will be broken, because price did retrace till FIB level 38.2% on 4H (till 396.16) and then started its bullish run.
~ Bullish trend line is still not breached and price is also above 200 EMA.
~ Entry could be made now or you can wait till last HH is broken at 416.59.
~ Considering FIB extension levels, price is anticipated to reach T1:455 and TP2:480.
~ Target 455 but it will be better to trial the stop loss and stay in the trade as long as possible.
Trade Plan:
~ PLAN A: Long (@ Market)
~ EN: 411,
~ SL: 359, TP1: 455, TP2: 480
~ PLAN B: BUY STOP
~ Entry 417,
~ SL: 359, TP1: 455, TP2: 480
MSFT Microsoft Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MSFT here, when Microsoft Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI creator of ChatGPT:
or the comparison to AMZN and GOOGL:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 400usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $30.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MSFT - Possible uptrend to $400 (cont'd) -- LONG/SHORT PLAYs3.tradingview.com
1/17/24 Update: If we break 394.03, it would break out of the channel as well and could see a rise to $400s especially as people may be buying in for ER. $387.53 final stop price, ~388.50-88 support level. $389.44 is roughly the first support.
I wanted to put a better drawing but I'm still getting used to drawing on my tablet and I've been snowed in. Hope everyone has a great trading day!
Probably not going to hold any long term calls for MSFT yet but I can see a run up to 400 if we break those numbers.
-Comment, or i don't know how else to get feedback from yall besides that but if you are interested in Asian tickers as well, let me know. I personally believe they (some) are undervalued but I won't bother with em if it doesn't help you guys.
Recent News and Analyst Upgrades to MSFT will definitely help propel it but we'll see how market conditions are!
MSFT long for longer $355 targetLooks like we just completed a leading diagonal (1 / A )
corrected (2 / B )
and heading to new highs ( 3 / C )
If we don't take out $274 to form a larger correction, this should be a long 5 wave all new highs move.
Looks very impulsive to me.
$355 is the 100% of (1 / A )
Microsoft bubble might have popped - Crash coming?This kind a lines up with all my other charts for a massive bubble pop. Unless there is a stick save somehow this is all going to unravel. MSFT had a throw over of the 2000 & 2021 top (red line) and back under which is very bearish.
I posted a zoomed in picture below.
MBV-SP500-CLIMBER: MSFTIntroduction:
This trading idea is based on a Long-Only strategy that utilizes the Dynamic Movement Index (DMI), supplemented by the Average Directional Index (ADX) and an Average True Range (ATR)-based Trailing Stop-Loss.
Strategy Overview:
Main Indicators: DMI, ADX, ATR
Time Frame : Variable, based on the DMI length (Default: 14 days)
Objective: To take long-term positions in bullish market phases
Optional Trading Hours and Seasonality:
Yellow Background (Trading Days) : Positions are only opened on trading days highlighted with a yellow background on the chart.
Blue Background (S&P 500 Seasonality) : Positions are only opened during periods highlighted with a blue background on the chart.
Strategy Details:
ADX and DMI : A Long signal is generated, taking into account the optional trading hours and seasonality, when the ADX exceeds a defined threshold and the positive DMI is greater than the negative DMI. This indicates a strong upward movement.
ATR-based Trailing Stop-Loss : The Stop-Loss is dynamically set with a multiplier of the ATR value below the current price and updated to secure profits.
The strategy script is available for free on TradingView.
You can find it under the name: "MBV-SP500-CLIMBER"
Please share your optimizations with the TradingView community by leaving comments under the script.
Please provide feedback on the strategy, especially on the trading signals, in the comments.
---
Einleitung:
In dieser Handelsidee beruht auf einer Long-Only-Strategie, die auf dem Dynamic Movement Index (DMI) basiert, ergänzt durch den Average Directional Index (ADX) und einen Average True Range (ATR)-basierten Trailing Stop-Loss.
Strategie-Überblick:
Hauptindikatoren : DMI, ADX, ATR
Zeitfenster : Variable, basierend auf der DMI-Länge (Standard: 14 Tage)
Ziel : Langfristige Positionen in bullishen Marktphasen
Optionale Handelszeiten und Saisonalität:
Gelber Hintergrund (Handelstage): Positionen werden nur an den im Chart mit einem gelben Hintergrund hervorgehobenen Handelstagen eröffnet.
Blauer Hintergrund (S&P 500-Saisonalität): Positionen werden nur während der im Chart mit einem blauen Hintergrund hervorgehobenen Zeiträume eröffnet.
Strategie-Details:
ADX und DMI : Ein Long-Signal wird unter Berücksichtigung der optionalen Handelszeiten und Saisonalität generiert, wenn der ADX einen definierten Schwellenwert überschreitet und der positive DMI größer ist als der negative DMI. Dies signalisiert eine starke Aufwärtsbewegung.
ATR-basierter Trailing Stop-Loss : Der Stop-Loss wird dynamisch mit einem Multiplikator des ATR-Wertes unter dem aktuellen Preis gesetzt und aktualisiert, um Gewinne zu sichern.
Das Strategie-Skript ist auf TradingView kostenlos verfügbar .
Sie finden Sie unter dem Namen: "MBV-SP500-CLIMBER"
Bitte teilen Sie Ihre Optimierungen mit der TradingView-Community, indem Sie Kommentare unter dem Skript hinterlassen.
Bitte geben Sie Feedback zur Strategie, insbesondere zu den Handelssignalen, in den Kommentaren.
MSFT - is this a good spot to buy?After hours MSFT hit the zone after earnings and the day after. Are there still buy orders @ the 397 area? I am thinking the risk/reward is worth taking here.
MSFT reacts to gravity, but is it short lived?We are finally getting an alternating wave iv (black) that should provide some consolidation before making it's final high in what I'm counting as a long term major top. There is a smaller chance this top is a local top in purple wave 3 with a deeper consolidation to come followed by another push higher...but I must add that at this juncture, to realize a push above $416 will constitute the minimum waves in place for completion.
If you're long Microsoft, it makes sense to raise cash on any further strength.
Best to all,
Chris
MSFT stocks showed minimal response to the impressive Q4 reportMicrosoft Corporation's revenue for Q4 2023 increased by 18% and amounted to 62.02 billion USD, exceeding the average analyst estimate of 61.12 billion USD. Earnings per share (EPS) reached 2.93 USD, surpassing the consensus estimate by 15 cents. Nevertheless, stock prices barely reacted to this outstanding result. This circumstance may open up an investment window of opportunity.
That is why we will look at the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock chart today.
On the D1 timeframe, support at 402.43 was broken through on 31 January, and resistance has formed at 409.98. There is a probability of a corrective decline in quotes to the 393.59 level, which previously served as support.
On the H1 timeframe, a breakthrough of the 407.24 level could set a short-term target for a price increase at 420.00, while in the medium term, it could hover around 450.00.
—
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Microsoft Chart Update: Key Levels to Watch Now!⚠️Examining Microsoft 's NASDAQ:MSFT 2-hour chart , we see the end of Wave ((v)) at $415, coinciding with a challenging earning call. Currently, we expect short-term support at the Wave ((iv)) level, around $364, and aim to stay above the 61.8% mark of $349.
📉 As we're potentially starting a long-term Wave II, we anticipate finding initial support without a significant breakdown. The 2-day chart suggests we might be nearing the cycle's end, with Wave 5's potential range between $388 and $430. If a pivot at 38 to 50% happens it could lead to new highs, indicating the current cycle isn't over yet and we have to see wave 5. If not, a deeper correction to at least $214, the previous Wave (4) level from November 2022, is plausible.
😷 The pandemic level at $136 also remains within the realm of possibility for Wave II. This reflects the market's need for corrections after strong upward momentum in recent years. Please keep in mind that there is no chart on this world that is growing without corrections and if you zoom out on all big bad events, they are about non existing and so will it be if Microsoft or other will have a larger pullback!
Long Microsoft $MSFTEntered a long position on NASDAQ:MSFT Microsoft Corp today
Timeframe: 4H
Target: ~$395
SL: ~ $367
Reason: trend continuation pattern on 4H. Trend on daily chart is bullish and strong
NASDAQ:MSFT
#trading
#investing
Microsoft's AI-Powered Surge: A Deep Dive into Q4 Performance
In a groundbreaking financial report, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) has unveiled a staggering 33% increase in profit for the October-December quarter, driven by substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The tech giant's remarkable success is primarily attributed to the robust growth in its cloud-computing unit, where Microsoft has strategically focused its AI initiatives.
AI Dominance and Cloud-Centric Growth:
Microsoft's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) net income for the quarter reached an impressive $21.87 billion, or $2.93 per diluted share, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $2.79 per share. The Redmond, Washington-based company reported a significant surge in revenue, totaling $62.02 billion, marking an 18% increase from the previous year's $52.75 billion. This stellar performance is a testament to Microsoft's prowess in the AI race, as it solidifies its position as a frontrunner in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.
Jeremy Goldman, Director of Briefings at Insider Intelligence, noted, "Microsoft is firmly establishing itself as a frontrunner in the AI race." The company's AI investments not only contributed to its impressive financial results but also opened doors to potential expansion in the digital advertising sector. Analysts predict a 12% growth in Microsoft's worldwide ad revenues to $14.93 billion this year, positioning the company as a formidable competitor, although Google is anticipated to expand its larger ad business by 10% in the same period.
Integration of Activision Blizzard:
Microsoft's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) recent acquisition of video-game maker Activision Blizzard, completed on October 13 for a whopping $69 billion, played a pivotal role in the company's Q4 performance. James Ambrose, the company's Director of Investor Relations, revealed that the merger boosted revenue growth by four points. However, operating profits saw a reduction of approximately $440 million due to purchase accounting adjustments and integration and transaction costs.
Despite the substantial impact of the acquisition, Microsoft's cloud-focused business segment outshone its other divisions, witnessing a remarkable 20% revenue growth to $25.88 billion for the quarter. The Office suite, coupled with the LinkedIn professional social network, exhibited a 13% revenue growth, reaching $19.25 billion. The Windows-led personal computing business, inclusive of Xbox video games and services, experienced a robust 19% growth, reaching $16.89 billion.
Investor Concerns and Market Response:
Despite the impressive figures, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) shares initially faced a dip in after-hours trading, falling nearly 2% to $400.86. Analysts attribute this to investor concerns regarding the company's continued aggressive investment plans. However, the shares later recovered much of the loss, showcasing a resilient market sentiment towards Microsoft's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) long-term strategy.
Conclusion:
Microsoft's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) exceptional Q4 performance, fueled by AI and cloud-computing investments, positions the company at the forefront of technological innovation. As the tech giant continues to navigate the ever-evolving landscape, its strategic focus on AI is not only bolstering financial success but also shaping the future of digital transformation. With the integration of Activision Blizzard and a relentless commitment to innovation, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) trajectory suggests a promising and influential role in the global tech ecosystem.
$MSFT Will not go much further from here... Kidding.. my fav..was looking at the 1.61 but ... seems like my fav is a tanking as usual... lets see where this ends.... rollover imminent .. I like CPI dump
Earnings Expectation for 1/30: $MSFT, $AMD, $GOOGLAs we approach a pivotal earnings release day on January 30th, all eyes are on three tech titans: Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), AMD ( NASDAQ:AMD ), and Google's parent company, Alphabet Inc. ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ). This analysis delves into the current market sentiments, historical performance, and key factors that could influence the upcoming earnings reports for these companies.
Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ): With its diverse portfolio ranging from cloud computing to software, Microsoft has consistently demonstrated resilience in the face of market fluctuations. This quarter, investors will be keenly watching the growth metrics of Azure, its cloud division, alongside the performance of its productivity and business processes segment.
AMD ( NASDAQ:AMD ): As a powerhouse in the semiconductor industry, AMD's earnings are a bellwether for the broader tech sector. The focus will be on its revenue growth driven by the sales of CPUs and GPUs, especially considering the intense competition with Intel and Nvidia. Market participants will also be looking for updates on supply chain normalization and its impact on AMD's operations.
Alphabet Inc. ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ): Google's parent company enters this earnings season amidst a challenging advertising market and regulatory scrutiny. Key areas of interest include the performance of its advertising business, cloud services growth, and any strategic shifts in response to the evolving digital landscape.
When Will Microsoft Stop Winning?Hey guys!
A few weeks ago, we put out a bearish idea on Microsoft. NASDAQ:MSFT
As you may have guessed, it was relatively poorly timed. While the stock took a break from rallying, it only took a couple of weeks for shares to continue their march higher into earnings season:
In fact, the company reports earnings tomorrow, and we're expecting another beat & raise, which has been the trend over time as MSFT products gain momentum, Azure continues to crank out cash, and Bing & ChatGPT represent the next leg up for the company.
All in all, the stock seems destined to be in 'only-up' mode forever.
However, this has to stop at some point. The stock cannot continue this march into infinity, and the growth trajectory of the stock WILL slow down, which should send the multiple back to the 15s-20s which is where it has traded historically.
Is that time now?
Probably not.
In our view, Fair Value for MSFT shares is somewhere around $285-$350 per share, which is below the current price near 410, but the momentum is so strong that it's unlikely we'll see the projected Fair Value zone anytime soon.
That said, this is one to keep an eye on, as many of the multiples are beginning to look very stretched, and the company has stopped buying back shares as aggressively:
Stepping in front of this freight train on the short side seems like a poor decision, but we can't help but think that as MSFT continues to make new high after new high, with the stock getting further and further ahead of the company's growth, that this is a 'good price' to exit at.
If you own MSFT, you may want to consider cutting bait or trailing it more tightly into (and beyond) earnings tomorrow.
Hope this makes sense.
Stay safe out there!
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MICROSOFT How to trade as the Earnings approach?Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report the Earnings on Tuesday and last time we gave gave a pull-back buy signal (December 01 2023, see chart below) we caught the exact bottom:
Our original long-term Target was $460.00 but we have to downgrade it to $440.00. On the short-term it may be wise to take most or at least some of the profit if the 1D MA20 (red trend-line) as this has been a medium-term sell signal on July 26 2023. It's not just potentially lower than expected Earnings that may turn the trend bearish on the medium-term but also the Fed, which announce the Rate Decision on Wednesday.
As a result, if the price breaks below the 1D MA20, we will short and target the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at $370.00 where we will add another long-term buy position. Notice that the 1D CCI indicator and the correlation with the 2023 price action, shows that both scenarios are equally likely at the moment.
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MSFT: Hidden Bullish Divergence, Upside Potential+7%? Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft's current price action analysis (MSFT) reveals several significant indicators suggesting a favorable bullish trend. Firstly, the stock consistently trades above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 34 line, signaling a robust bullish trend. Additionally, a recent development in a symmetrical triangle formation has been observed, followed by a decisive breakout from this pattern.
Moreover, the momentum indicator has exhibited a hidden bullish divergence, reinforcing the positive outlook. This confluence of technical signals indicates a strong likelihood of Microsoft continuing its upward trajectory. In our analysis, we anticipate a potential pullback to the previous resistance zone before resuming its bullish trend, with the initial target in sight. Further, we identify a second target for potential gains, underlining the prospect of sustained positive momentum in MSFT's market performance.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Microsoft."
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