MSFT trade ideas
MSFT's Peak is Yet to ComeMSFT Daily Chart
MSFT is holding a strong support level around 385. In the last two trading days (11 & 2 Jan 2024), it did not break this support level.
MSFT went up from the lower trendline of its channel around 367. This is when the 5th wave of the impulsive wave started.
MSFT will continue to rise sharply in the 5th wave and peak around 410.
When MSFT reaches 410, AAPL would have closed its gap of 192, AMZN would have hit the upper trend line of its rising channel at 165 and NVDA would have completed its 5th wave around 580.
Around this time, which is between a week to two weeks from now, SPX would start a correction, if not a severe reversal.
Microsoft's Triumph Over Apple: The AI Revolution
Microsoft (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) has dethroned Apple to become the world's most valuable public company, marking a pivotal moment in the tech industry's landscape. This changing of the guard is not merely a financial fluctuation but a manifestation of the profound impact generative artificial intelligence (AI) is having on Silicon Valley and Wall Street investors.
The Rise of Microsoft:
For over a decade, Apple held sway as the undisputed king of the stock market, outshining giants like Exxon Mobil. However, a seismic shift occurred when Microsoft's market value surged by over $1 trillion in the past year, securing its place at the pinnacle with a valuation of $2.89 trillion, edging out Apple's $2.87 trillion.
Generative AI as the Catalyst:
This shift is not incidental but a consequence of the advent of generative AI, a technology capable of answering questions, creating images, and even writing code. Microsoft's strategic pivot under CEO Satya Nadella has been instrumental in leveraging generative AI to redefine its business landscape.
Microsoft's Evolution under Nadella:
When Satya Nadella took the helm in 2014, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) was at a crossroads. Nadella's visionary leadership refocused the company on cloud computing, challenging industry pioneer Amazon. His subsequent bold bet on generative AI, marked by investments in OpenAI and the development of GPT-4 technology, set Microsoft on an accelerated trajectory.
Integration of Generative AI:
Under Nadella's direction, Microsoft introduced generative AI into various facets of its business. From incorporating chatbots into Bing to infusing AI into the Windows operating system, Excel, and Outlook, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) strategically positioned itself at the forefront of the AI revolution. The recent release of a $30-a-month AI offering within Microsoft's productivity software further underscores its commitment to integrating AI into its products.
Financial Impact:
Although the revenue from generative AI is just beginning to materialize in Microsoft's financial results, it accounted for about three percentage points of growth to Azure in the last quarter. This trend positions Microsoft as a frontrunner in harnessing the economic potential of AI, contributing to the company's market value surge.
Apple's Struggles and Microsoft's Advantage:
While Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) has been proactive in embracing generative AI, Apple seems to be lagging behind in the AI race. Apple's reliance on iPhone sales and incremental innovations has faced challenges, with Tim Cook's strategy showing signs of fatigue. Microsoft's strategic foresight into AI technology places it in a favorable position to navigate the future of the tech industry.
Looking Ahead:
The recent shift in market dynamics prompts a crucial question: who has the better strategy to propel their market value to the next level of $3.5 trillion? Microsoft's relentless pursuit of generative AI positions it as a strong contender, while Apple grapples with finding the next big innovation beyond the iPhone.
Conclusion:
As Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) surpasses Apple in market value, it marks a symbolic victory for generative AI. The tech industry's reordering underscores the significance of embracing AI technology for sustained growth. Microsoft's ascent serves as a testament to the transformative power of strategic investments in generative AI, positioning the company at the forefront of the ever-evolving tech landscape.
MICROSOFT should target 490Daily chart, the MSFT stock is trading in an expanding triangle. After crossing resistance A (green), the target will be 410, after crossing resistance C (GREY dashed|), the target will be 490 (targeting the blue resistance B line
Microsoft Overtakes Apple as World's Most Valuable Company
Microsoft briefly surpassed Apple as the world's most valuable company, marking a significant moment in the ongoing tech industry rivalry. This shift in leadership highlights Microsoft's strategic investments in generative artificial intelligence (AI), specifically through its collaboration with OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. As Microsoft's shares continue to soar, outpacing Apple, the dynamics of the technology landscape are evolving.
The Role of Generative AI in Microsoft's Ascendancy:
Microsoft's recent success can be attributed in part to its early adoption of generative AI technology, a field that has seen exponential growth in recent years. The company's investment in OpenAI, the innovative force behind ChatGPT, has played a pivotal role in reshaping Microsoft's business strategy. By incorporating OpenAI's technology into its suite of productivity software, Microsoft has revitalized its cloud-computing business, experiencing a notable rebound in the July-September quarter. The article delves into how generative AI is becoming a key differentiator in the competitive tech landscape and the advantages it offers Microsoft over its rivals.
Apple's Struggles and China's Impact:
Conversely, Apple finds itself grappling with weakening demand, particularly for its flagship product, the iPhone. A sluggish recovery in China's economy and the resurgence of competitors, such as Huawei, have added to Apple's challenges. The article examines the specific factors contributing to Apple's decline, shedding light on the economic landscape in China and the impact on the company's market share. Insights from analysts, like Redburn Atlantic, provide a comprehensive view of the challenges Apple faces and the potential drag on its performance in the coming years.
Market Valuation and Share Price-to-Earnings Ratios:
A critical aspect of the Microsoft-Apple rivalry lies in their market valuations and share price-to-earnings ratios. The article breaks down the financial metrics, highlighting that both companies are trading at premium valuations. Apple's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28, well above its 10-year average, contrasts with Microsoft's ratio of around 31, exceeding its historical average as well. This section explores the implications of these valuations and what they indicate about investor sentiment towards the two tech giants.
The Historical Tug-of-War:
The article provides a historical perspective on the Microsoft-Apple rivalry, noting that Microsoft has briefly overtaken Apple as the most valuable company multiple times since 2018. It examines the specific instances, including 2021, when concerns about COVID-driven supply chain shortages impacted Apple's stock price. Understanding the historical context allows readers to appreciate the cyclical nature of the tech industry and the constant ebb and flow of market leadership between these two industry titans.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Microsoft's brief ascent over Apple highlights the transformative power of generative AI and strategic investments. As the tech landscape continues to evolve, factors such as market valuation, geopolitical challenges, and technological innovation will play crucial roles in determining the future trajectory of these industry giants. The Microsoft-Apple rivalry is far from over, and the interplay between their strengths and challenges will shape the narrative of the tech industry in the years to come.
$MSFT at the top?Even though briefly NASDAQ:MSFT became the most valuable company in the world based on market cap.
From an Elliott point of view we might be on minor wave 5 of intermediate wave (5). After a top a correction always occurs. So be careful out there and look for signals to support this correction.
What is your opinion? Up or down from here.
Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purposes and does not serve as financial advice.
MSFT Elliot Wave AnalysisScenario 1:
- Wave 4 complete. 1-2 setup of wave 5 complete
- Confirmation with candle close above the descending curve and above 375.77
- Target: $391.50-$400
Scenario 2:
- Wave 4 incomplete. Move down was just an A wave and we are now in wave B to be followed
by a wave C
- Target: $360.38 - $350.60
Microsoft ,,, Buy opportunity Uptrend
I posted it as a watching case, It has triggered after passing the mentioned level.
I suppose around 357 could be suitable place for setting SL.
The best time for entry is about 20 or 30 min before bell.
MSFT up?it looks like after a long accumulation period, from November to now, in a tight range of about 2%, the stock is finally ready to go up. Close to ATH and to 52high, great fundamentals + AI as a catayst.
The overall market and the techs are not bearish at the moment.
Heading to 400?
MSFT Great Relative StrengthMSFT looking really good here. Nice relative strength on another down market day. Inside day candle and price coiling nicely. This should be a leader if the market turns around.
Microsoft, watchingUptrend
As you see on the chart. It is in a corrective wave, time correction, and after leaving the wedge and passing of 377 it can be a good buying opportunity. about 352 can be a good place for setting SL on it.
Microsoft versus CamceoStealth BEAR MARKET for Microsoft (priced in Cameco) for over 3 years now!
#uranium #nasdaq #microsoft #camceo NYSE:CCJ NASDAQ:MSFT
Possible Bullish Setup on MSFTMSFT: I see another potential bullish play setting up here for a possible day trade. Key level to watch here is a break above 377 which would prompt a fast move towards 380 (PT1) and 383 (PT2). Please see chart for details!
MsftChop for the last month here. Either consolidation or distribution
Bigger picture here is the ascending broadening wedge inside white trendline.. this is a bearish pattern... if msft breaks below and closes below 366 than the correction has started to 300 with a pit stop to 330 first..
Inside the major pictues is a smaller pennat that msft has been trading inside..
366-376 is the pennants range. Over 377 and 400 comes. Below 366 and 330 incoming
Not looking good for MSFT bullsMSFT is testing a recent trend line with the lowest volume yet. Will be watching MSFT to see if it can take out the November 9th lows and either retest failed support or the underside of the 50 SMA / trendline.
Will start to develop a trade plan on the short side if the above materializes.
Cheers!
400 Not Far AwayWhile it is completely possible that wave 4 of 5 is done, the greater market supports a wave 4 of 5 target around 350. That said, 400 is likely still in MSFT’s future and a wave 4 of 5 pullback toward 350 would be a bullish gift.
MICROSOFT: Bearish breakout under the 1D MA50.MSFT has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.496, MACD = 1.200, ADX = 24.141) as the price reached the 1D MA50 for the first time since late October on a sideways price action. Since the 1 year pattern is a Channel Up, we expect its bottom to get tested (TP = 345.00) if the 1D MA50 is crossed. Consider it a bearish breakout signal.
See how our prior idea has worked:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
MSFT AnalysisPrice played out nicely as per last analysis, giving us a +14.10% move to the upside. After this nice bullish move, I'm expecting price to make a bearish retracement into the discount level. Potential target for the bearish retracement is the bullish OB at 346.20.
MSFT downWith the overall market and tech sector turning bearish this one looks like perfect short for me.
Head & shoulders with a long right shoulder. Looks weak.
Down we go?
Stop loss above the red line
Microsoft Stock Analysis: Navigating Key Support Levels – BreakTitle: Microsoft Stock Analysis: Navigating Key Support Levels – Breakout or Bounce?
Microsoft (MSFT) stock is currently at a critical point, hovering around key support levels, prompting investors to closely analyze potential outcomes – a decisive breakout or a bounce.
Support Levels under Scrutiny:
MSFT is currently navigating through pivotal support levels, marking a crucial phase in the stock's trajectory. The response within this range is pivotal for assessing whether a substantial directional shift is in the cards.
Breakout Scenarios:
A successful breach of these support levels by Microsoft could signal a noteworthy shift in market dynamics. Traders are meticulously examining trading volumes and various technical indicators to identify confirmation signals, potentially pointing towards a bearish trend.
Bounce-Back Potential:
Conversely, should Microsoft consolidate and find support at the current levels, it may set the stage for a resilient bounce. Positive market sentiment, strong fundamentals, or favorable news could reignite investor confidence, propelling the stock upwards.
Investors are advised to closely monitor how Microsoft navigates within these crucial support levels. Whether it's gearing up for a breakout or preparing for a rebound, understanding these potential scenarios is essential for making informed decisions amidst the evolving market dynamics.
Mastering Support and Resistance: Part 1Hello Traders, and welcome to a new year of endless learning opportunities! Today, we will kick off 2024 by exploring the concept of support and resistance, how to identify these levels and common misconceptions about them. Support and resistance levels play a crucial role in technical analysis and can greatly impact your trading strategy. Understanding these levels and knowing how to effectively use them can make all the difference in your trading success. We will be doing a deeper dive in a subsequent article later this week where we will cover more advanced techniques and the psychology behind support and resistance. In the meantime, are you ready to dive in?
Understanding Support and Resistance Levels in Trading
Support and resistance levels are key aspects of technical analysis that traders incorporate into several different trading decisions. Support refers to a price level where buying pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent the price from falling further. On the other hand, resistance is a price level where selling pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising higher. These levels are based on the idea that markets often go through similar patterns and respond to certain prices.
The Importance of Support and Resistance in Technical Analysis
Support and resistance levels are crucial in technical analysis for several reasons. Firstly, they provide traders with valuable information about market sentiment. When the price approaches a support level, it indicates that buyers are likely to step in and try to push the price up. Conversely, when the price approaches a resistance level, it suggests that sellers are likely to enter the market to push the price down. Understanding market sentiment can help traders avoid potential losses.
Secondly, support and resistance levels act as a reference point for setting profit targets and stop-loss levels. By analyzing historical price movements, traders can identify key support and resistance levels that are likely to be tested in the future. These levels can be used to determine when to take profits or cut losses, providing a clear framework for risk management.
Lastly, support and resistance levels can act as confirmation tools for trading signals. For example, if a trader receives a buy signal from a set of technical indicators and the price is approaching or bouncing off of a strong support level, it adds credibility to the signal.
Similarly, if a sell signal is generated and the price is approaching or moving away from a major resistance level, it strengthens the validity of the signal. By combining support and resistance levels with other technical indicators, traders can increase the accuracy of their trading signals.
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels on Price Charts
Identifying support and resistance levels on price charts is a fundamental skill for any trader. Several methods can be used to identify these levels, depending on the trader's preference and trading style. Here are a few common techniques:
Swing Highs and Lows: Horizontal support and resistance levels can be identified by analyzing price charts. A support level is typically formed by connecting multiple swing lows, where the price has previously bounced back up. Conversely, a resistance level is formed by connecting multiple swing highs, where the price has previously reversed its upward trajectory. By identifying these levels, traders can anticipate potential reversals or breakouts and adjust their trading strategy accordingly.
It is important to note that support and resistance levels are not exact price points, but rather zones where buying or selling pressure is expected to be strong. Traders should use a combination of these techniques and exercise discretion to identify the most relevant support and resistance levels on their price charts.
Moving Averages: Moving averages are commonly used to identify trends in price charts, but they can also act as dynamic support and resistance levels. For example, a 200-day moving average is often considered a strong support or resistance level. When the price approaches this moving average, it is likely to either bounce off or breakthrough, depending on the prevailing trend.
Fibonacci Levels: Fibonacci levels are based on mathematical sequences. These levels are used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the percentage retracement of a previous price move. Traders often look for confluence between Fibonacci levels and other technical indicators to increase the reliability of their analysis. Several different tools on TradingView can be used to identify these levels such as a Fibonacci retracement or Fibonacci Channel.
How to Effectively Use Support and Resistance in Your Trading Strategy
Once you have identified support and resistance levels on your price charts, it is important to know how to effectively use them in your trading strategy. Here are some key considerations:
Combine with other indicators: Support and resistance levels should not be used in isolation but should be combined with other technical analysis techniques. Relying solely on support and resistance levels can result in false signals, as price can break through or reverse at unexpected times. Consider using trend lines, candlestick patterns, or oscillators to confirm your support and resistance levels and increase the accuracy of your trading signals.
Price Action: Observing price action around support and resistance levels can provide valuable insights into market sentiment. Look for signs of price rejection, such as long wicks or multiple failed attempts to break through a level. Price patterns may also form around support or resistance levels. These signs can indicate potential reversals or breakouts.
Risk Management: Support and resistance levels can be used to determine stop-loss levels and profit targets. When entering a trade, set your stop-loss just below a support level for long positions or just above a resistance level for short positions. Similarly, set your profit target at the next significant support or resistance level to ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Multiple Timeframes: Analyzing support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes can provide a broader perspective on market dynamics. A level that appears strong on a daily chart may be insignificant on a weekly or monthly chart. Consider higher timeframe levels for long-term trades and lower timeframe levels for short-term trades.
Common Misconceptions About Support and Resistance
There are several common misconceptions about support and resistance levels that traders should be aware of. Understanding these misconceptions can help you avoid common pitfalls and make better trading decisions. Here are three common misconceptions:
Support and Resistance Levels Are Fixed: One of the most common misconceptions is that support and resistance levels are fixed and remain unchanged over time. In reality, these levels are dynamic and can shift as market conditions change. Traders should regularly reevaluate and adjust their support and resistance levels based on new price information.
Support Turns into Resistance and Vice Versa: Another misconception is that support levels always turn into resistance levels when broken, and vice versa. While this can sometimes be the case, it is not always true. Market dynamics can change, and a support level that has been broken may become irrelevant in the future. Traders should not blindly assume that a broken support level will act as a strong resistance level.
Support and Resistance Levels Are Foolproof: Many traders mistakenly believe that support and resistance levels are infallible and always result in predictable price movements. While these levels can provide valuable guidance, they are not guaranteed to hold or reverse the price. Traders should always use support and resistance levels in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and exercise proper risk management.
By understanding these misconceptions, traders can avoid relying solely on support and resistance levels and develop a more comprehensive trading strategy. We implore you to be thorough in practice and understanding of S&R as there is a great degree of subjectivity to them. The more you understand about these levels the greater accuracy you can obtain.
Tips for Mastering Support and Resistance
Mastering support and resistance requires practice and experience. Here are some tips to help you improve your skills in identifying and utilizing these levels:
Backtesting: Backtesting is a valuable tool for evaluating the effectiveness of support and resistance levels in historical price data. By analyzing past price movements, you can assess how well your identified levels have held or reversed the price. This can provide valuable insights into the reliability of your levels and help you refine your approach.
Focus on Key Levels: Not all support and resistance levels are equally significant. Focus on key levels that have been tested multiple times and have resulted in strong price reactions. These levels are more likely to hold or reverse the price and can provide more reliable trading opportunities.
Practice Patience: Support and resistance levels often require patience to be effective. Wait for clear confirmation before entering a trade, and avoid chasing price or making impulsive decisions based on a single level. Patience and discipline are key to successful trading.
By incorporating these tips into your trading routine, you can enhance your mastery of support and resistance levels and improve your trading performance.
What Does it All Add Up To?
In conclusion, understanding and mastering support and resistance levels is crucial for successful trading. These levels provide valuable information about market sentiment, act as reference points for setting profit targets and stop-loss levels, and can confirm trading signals. By identifying support and resistance levels on price charts using techniques like swing highs and lows, moving averages, and Fibonacci levels, traders can make better judgments in deciding what actions to take. However, it is important to use support and resistance levels in conjunction with other indicators and consider price action for confirmation. Overall, integrating support and resistance levels into a trading strategy can help break through barriers and achieve trading success.
