MU trade ideas
Fundamental Analysis MU Earnings Micron TechnologyCheck my profile for more info!
For my latest stock, I took a look at Micron Earnings $MU Stock. Darth Bear got 2Pts, while Bull Solo got 5Pts! MU is a strong company with a healthy balance sheet!
Darth Bear Points
1)When comparing Q1 20' vs. Q1 19', there was a decrease in sales in all segments (Compute, Mobile, Storage, and Embedded) of the revenue. Total revenue was down ~35%
2) Outlook for Q2 2020(EPS of $0.35 +- $0.06) is still lower than Q2 2019 (EPS of $1.42).
Bull Solo Points
1)MU beat earnings and revenue!
2) The company is working on projects for the future, Upgraded version of their current products + the purchase of new AI Company will help them work with AI customer needs.
3) The company has a strong shareholder return, buying shares every quarter with Annual free cash flow + buying back senior convertible note to reduce dilution count.
4) Balance Sheet is looking good! It has more cash than the total debt, which is always a great thing. Continuously paying down its debt.
5) Analyst Estimate Future EPS and revenue is growing for the next two years. Giving MU Forward P/E ratio of about ~11, If this is the bottom, then these are great numbers.
$SPY $AMD $SOXL
MU strong stock trend in stronger On a yearly performance, MU did better than 77% of other electronic components stocks. Now it is currently trading near its 52 weeks high so it is performing in line with the broader markets.
On a mid-term based daily chart, we could see a strong wedge uptrend pattern with momentum, and a few minor pullbacks occurred due to some broader geopolitical impacts such as the trade war and global 5G development uncertainty. But the stock is kept showing higher lows signaling the investors' passion for it.
MU is about to consolidate at the 56.8 support level which is lying underneath the price as the chart indicated above. Since the ATR volatility risk has not packed in too much yet at the current high, DMI overall trend indicator is still heading up and bull-side trend strength is still controlling the directional momentum, I would go long with it. My target is simply at the prior all-time high resistant area which is indicated by the red band above the stock price roughly at 60, any pullbacks that break below its bollinger bands middle band could be seen as a stop-loss trigger.
Besides, on the order flow side, there were over 2.9 million valued long calls detected from the options chain today with a strike at 60, expire in March.
MU H&SA H&S can be observed in the past and a left shoulder has formed for another H&S, my basis for this is that price will be rejected at mirror resistance level and once head is formed it is very likely right shoulder will be formed. Various other chart patterns can be observed including a symmetrical triangle, which led to a strong upward breakout, and a bump and run. Currently the price is trading within a strong upward channel. Largest volume ever can also be observed..
MU potential reversalMU price surged before earning with a lot of volumes. Now it has a higher probability to pull back. Plus good news before the earning is priced in. Option buyers taking MU bet off the table due to the loss of IV.
I like to make this trade by selling calls or sell stocks. Don't go against the IV.
When you place a trade, remember this:
1. Always look for a 100% loss on options or 10% loss on stocks. If you think the commission is killing you, don't trade. (Canadian broker sucks)
2. You must buy or sell options that have more than 30 days to expire. If you don't have enough money or you are taking too big of your position, make it a cover call/put.
Have fun out there.
WallaceW