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3 Things to Take Note on Netflix's Earnings Release LaterNASDAQ:NFLX is gearing up to unveil its first-quarter financial results on Thursday, April 18, 2024, after the market closes. Get ready for a glimpse into the numbers, expert opinions, and key highlights to keep an eye on. Earnings Estimates Analysts have their sights set on Netflix reporting first-quarter revenue of $9.275 billion. In the same quarter last year, the streaming giant raked in $8.162 billion. Netflix has surpassed expectations in two out of the last four quarters, including the most recent fourth quarter. During its fourth-quarter earnings report, Netflix hinted at first-quarter revenue of $9.24 billion, representing a solid 13.2% year-over-year increase. Analysts anticipate the company to post first-quarter earnings per share of $4.52, up from $2.88 in the corresponding period of the previous year. Netflix has exceeded analysts' earnings per share estimates in three of the past four quarters. The company's own guidance points toward first-quarter earnings per share of $4.49. In the fourth quarter, Netflix scored a whopping 13.12 million net subscriber additions, bringing its total to a staggering 260.28 million subscribers. Although Netflix's guidance suggests a sequential decline in net subscriber adds, it is expected to outperform the 1.8 million net adds reported in the first quarter of 2023. Password Sharing Netflix's crackdown on password sharing and the introduction of an ad-supported plan could lead to even more positive outcomes. Netflix's actions have the potential to drive additional growth. Initially, around 100 million users were sharing their passwords, indicating ample room for subscriber additions in 2024. Besides, monetization through the ad tier and potential price increases might drive further revenue growth. Another aspect to watch closely is Netflix's average revenue per member. The introduction of the ad tier and the potential for price hikes among subscribers could lead to increased monetization. With its ad-free mid-tier price in the U.S. currently lagging behind Hulu and Max, Netflix's growing base of ad tier users presents more potential for volume and pricing power in the thriving advertising market. Notably, Netflix has not raised prices on its Standard plan since January 2022, making a price increase seem imminent. Subscribers’ Growth Netflix subscriber growth in the first quarter might be overly optimistic. While sentiment around Netflix improved significantly after the impressive net add numbers in the fourth quarter, the question remains: how much upside to the estimated 4.5 million net adds for Q1 can be achieved. Summary The net subscriber count will undoubtedly steal the spotlight, followed closely by the potential announcement of a subscriber price increase, which could make waves in the headlines. Additionally, keep an eye on Netflix's foray into the world of sports. Rather than aggressively bidding for full seasons of live sports, the company has opted for captivating one-off events and sports docuseries. Netflix recently showcased a live tennis event in March and is eagerly awaiting a highly anticipated live boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul on July 20, which could go down as one of the company's most significant sports events to date. Moreover, Netflix's dominance in the sector and its perspective on market share and competition are topics that could provide valuable insights into its strategy. Get ready for Netflix's first-quarter results—a thrilling glimpse into the streaming giant's performance, projections, and strategic moves.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by wealth_compass
Netflix Q124 earnings preview – subscribing to volatility Release time – Thursday on the market close (6 am AEST / 9 pm UK time) Netflix is one of the preeminent trading stocks - where we often see big movement, a high propensity to trend and sizeable intraday high-low daily ranges that can appeal to the day traders. With Q124 earnings due on Thursday and the possibility of another sizeable price catalyst, Netflix is a stock that should be on the radar. Netflix is already something of a market darling, where the share price has significantly outperformed the S&P500 by 19.6 percentage points over the last 3 months and by some 51.7 percentage points over six months. Going into this earnings release, with price having recently traded to a multi-year high of $639, we now see consolidation with price tracking a range of $639 to $600, and importantly holding above the 50-day MA ($601.12), which has been a solid trend filter since October. We can see the Bollinger Bands tightening up into Q1 earnings as price moves remain contained to the 20-day MA, and traders refrain from taking risks until the facts are known. A daily close above/below the bands and/or the recent trading range could be meaningful and could suggest a higher probability that we see a trend develop, which could be a compelling hunting ground for more momentum-styled traders. Earnings pedigree Netflix does have a strong pedigree at earnings, having beaten consensus expectations in 7 of the past 8 quarterly earnings reports. Many will also recall the Q423 earnings report where NFLX added 13.1m paid streaming subscribers, a number well above expectations and subsequently, the shares rallied strongly. NFLX has a history of pronounced movement on earnings, with double-digit percentage moves in the prior 2 reporting quarters (on the day of earnings) and taking the period out the absolute move has averaged -/+ 12.8%. Being able to capture that movement in the post-market session is important for traders, and despite a potentially fast-moving market, there should be ample liquidity. By way of expectations of price movement for this earnings report, we can look at the options market and asses the implied move on the day of earnings, which now currently stands at -/+ 8.1%. This level of implied volatility speaks to the view that we could easily see movement in the share price once the earnings and guidance are known and could offer opportunity, but it is also a risk that those with existing positions may need to manage. What to watch this time around? For CFD traders going through the finer details of cash flow, subscribers’ numbers and sales growth seems a tough proposition. This is why most will let the market tell them how they feel about the shape of the business, and dynamically react to the ensuing price action. However, by way of a kicker, the likely overriding driver will be quarterly subscriber adds and any guidance for Q224 subscribers. The consensus (from investment bank analysts) is for 4.77m net subscriber adds in Q1, with 3.7m pencilled in Q2. The view on the street is this is a low-ball call – which won’t surprise given NFLX have beaten consensus expectations for sub growth for three quarters in a row - and investors are positioned for a number closer to 7m, even 8m. On headline Q1 earnings estimates, the consensus view is we for: Earnings per share (EPS) - $4.54 (Q224 estimates $4.55) Revenue - $9.264b (Q224 estimates $9.50b) Free cash flow - $1.89b (Q224 estimates $1.50b) There will be a focus on the crackdown on password sharing and how that is impacting earnings, competition, ad-supported tier, and commentary on unique programming. The consensus 12-month price target for NFLX is $626, so I question if there is scope for a solid earnings re-rating, which could see these targets revised higher. That said, price targets are largely irrelevant for traders, and price will react far quicker than any analyst can change their models. The market will let us know about the earnings and the operating environment and the price could see some outsized moves – one to put on the radar.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Pepperstone
NFLX set up for a dip buy before the next earnings LONGNFLX has added 20% to price in the two months since the last earnings which were decent but not remarkable. The 2H chart shows a dip of about $20 per share coincident with a fall from the second upper VWAP line to support from the first upper VWAP line. The zero lag MACD shows line rising over the horizontal zero level in perhaps a sign of bullish divergence. The lines are now over the low amplitude histogram. I will take a long trade here targeting $650. Recent news is the CEO sold 20,000 shares out of the 12,000,000 that he has control of. Nothing unusual there. His friends and others ( myself included) may be buying the dip.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by AwesomeAvani
Worth a shot - NFLX short at 1:1The crazy run up of NFLX has been an almost straight line - which always makes me suspicious. To my observation retracement-less runs are mostly corrective. A healthy impulsive move has significant retracements (ie. Wave 2 is normally 61.8% by the books). Also noteworthy that the May 9, 2022 low is extremely oversold and the stock bounced without RSI divergence. Also per my observation, these OS (and OB) peaks are sooner or later taken out. Per the above points I will try for a short on this one at the 1:1. No idea what the catalyst would be, it is technical speculation.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by BelaK
Netflix : Is a Major Market Correction coming? 📉Following our last analysis, Netflix has precisely achieved the forecasted targets, with the wave ((iii)) extending to 227 to 261%. This suggests that a correction towards wave ((iv)) might be imminent, expected to range between 38% and 61.8%, thus laying the groundwork for a wave 5 and the culmination of a significant cycle in the form of a potential wave (2). A closer examination of the daily chart reinforces our primary scenario: the completion of Wave II at the low of $162.80. We are currently in the process of developing Wave (1), followed by Wave (2), and so forth. In our alternative scenario, we consider the possibility of a Regular Flat, especially when analyzing the complex correction currently unfolding. This might indicate that rather than concluding Wave (2) at $162.80, it was actually Wave (A), and we are now witnessing Wave (B) achieving exactly 100% of Wave I. Such alignment could signal a 5-wave decline towards a double bottom, marking a significant correction of 70%. While such a correction would be substantial, it is essential to explore all scenarios to be prepared for any market developments. Despite the potential for a significant pullback, our underlying outlook remains optimistic, expecting a continued upward momentum for Netflix.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by stromm_by_wmc
NETFLIX long run!Shares of Netflix Inc. NFLX, -1.01% slid 1.01% to $607.33 Thursday, on what proved to be an all-around great trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.11% rising 0.11% to 5,254.35 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.12% rising 0.12% to 39,807.37. This was the stock's second consecutive day of losses. Netflix Inc. closed $27.06 short of its 52-week high ($634.39), which the company achieved on March 26th. The stock demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Thursday, as Apple Inc. AAPL, -1.06% fell 1.06% to $171.48, Walt Disney Co. DIS, +1.14% rose 1.14% to $122.36, and Comcast Corp. Cl A CMCSA, +0.65% rose 0.65% to $43.35. Trading volume (3.7 M) remained 932,558 below its 50-day average volume of 4.6 M.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by FXBANkthe8055
Netflix, just another analysis.Have you ever wondered what happens when a growth stock, well, doesn't grow anymore? Netflix is, at the moment, just a few bucks (I mean billions lol) below the 100 B dollar market cap. kinda big uh? it's like 100 unicorn start-ups together :D Anyway, let's get to the point. In the past, the company now considered OLD for us, the younger, simply exists, and they just work (you know, revenue, FCF etc, all cool stuff) they're not considered growth, ANYMORE, cuz in the past they must have been considered so right? everyone grows, then you just "keep what you have" or fight for it when you cant grow bigger. Now, from the internet, it is kinda known (in my studies at least) that a PE of 13-17 makes a company a good buy, but it's not undervalued yet. Well, it is also true that a PE of 30 for a growth stock is considered a good ratio as well, cuz you know, that's a GROWTH stock. Ah almost forgot, when there are not a lot of numbers or a lot of past years to analyse, the PE can go well about 30 (remember tesla? XD) So, the point is: Netflix went from PE>100 in the past years, then it fell to PE = 38 after Q4 2021 and NOW after Q1 2022 has fallen to PE = 19 Does it recall something to you? My idea? this "thing" just went from "hypergrowth stock" 2 years ago (ofc covid helped, maybe its not a big pharma conspiracy but a Netflix one LOL), to a "simple growth" 1 quarter ago, and now its gone to a "value" stock. Before I end the analysis, a reminder: at the moment, Netflix has a PE of 19, well above the >13 expected for a value stock to be at a good price, which means the stock should fall another 30% AND, well, what a lucky coincidence another fall of 30% would bring the price to the MA200 of the MONTHLY chart. Trade safe, and remember that wall street uses Algorithms, faster and better than you for trading purpouses. Let me know in the comment if you have a DIFFERENT opinion, if you agree with me simply leave a like ;)
NASDAQ:NFLX
by camelot0707
Opening: NFLX 435/445/545/555 Iron Condor... for a 3.45 credit. Comments: Earnings play with the announcement today after close. 3.45 credit on buying power of 6.55; 52.6% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. I'm basically looking for two things here: (1) IV contraction post-earnings; and (2) price to stay within the expected move, which the options market is pricing in to be about +/- 43 handles from current price (i.e., 448 to the downside, 534 to the up). And ... we'll see how that goes.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
NETFLIX Last pull-back possible before $750Netflix (NFLX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up on the logarithmic scale for the past 20 months. The trend is very aggressive to the upside and since the first Bullish Leg made a Higher High on February 03 2022 on a +130.30% rise, we do expect a similar % rally that would technically target a little below $800, so aiming at $750 would be a fair price. Until then however, the Channel Up structure suggests that the stock has entered the Volatility Phase which during the previous Bullish Leg took place right before the Peak. As a result, a last pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would also be fair. Technically it could seek the -0.236 Fibonacci extension ($550) from the Take-off Phase's High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NFLX
by TradingShot
Aroon Indicator: Identifying Trends and MomentumAroon Indicator: Identifying Trends and Momentum The Aroon indicator is one of several technical analysis indicators that traders use to identify the direction of trends and establish when they are set to reverse. In this FXOpen article, we describe how to use the Aroon indicator to buy and sell stocks as well as other assets and explain why traders use it in combination with other technical analysis tools to help direct your trading strategies. What Is the Aroon Indicator? The Aroon indicator was created in 1995 by Tushar Chande, a technical analyst who has created several popular trading indicators. It features dual lines: The "Aroon Up" denotes the strength of an uptrend, while the "Aroon Down" measures the strength of a decline. Is the Aroon indicator leading or lagging? It is lagging as it measures how much time has passed between market highs and lows over a given period, based on the idea that assets in a strong bullish trend will regularly record new highs, while those in decline will regularly trade at new lows. Traders utilise this to determine if an asset is trending, trading within a range, or starting a new trend. It helps them to gauge the strength of the movement and anticipate when prices will change direction. Aroon Indicator Formula Explained The Aroon indicator formula comprises two separate calculations. The formula for the Aroon Up line = x 100%. The formula for the Aroon Down line = x 100%. The Aroon indicator is explained as a tool to evaluate the highest and lowest values within a specified timeframe. If the highest value occurs in the current candlestick, the up value is set to 100, indicating a new peak. If not, it returns a percentage value indicating the time elapsed since the last peak. Conversely, if the lowest value occurs in the current bar, the down value is 100, indicating a new low. It otherwise returns a percentage value that shows the time since the last low within the timeframe. Best Setting for the Aroon Indicator Using a short timeframe often makes it difficult to interpret this indicator. Chande recommends the best setting for the calculation is to measure prices over 25 periods, tracking when the last top and bottom occurred. The TickTrader platform does this for you, displaying the Aroon Up and Aroon Down indicators below the price data on a chart. The two lines range between 0 and 100. When measuring 25-day periods, a number above 50 indicates that the high or low was hit within the last 12.5 days, while numbers below 50 show that the high or low was seen within the previous 12.5 days. Below, we look at how to read the Aroon indicator. How to Implement the Aroon Indicator Into Your Strategy There are four main ways you might utilise an Aroon indicator on a chart to analyse price action. The results are relatively easy to interpret. Identify Prevailing Trends The most common way to use it is to determine the direction of the market. If Aroon Up is above the 50 level and the Aroon Down below 50, the trend is bullish, and it is more likely that the market will surge to new highs than lows. You could take this as a signal to enter or hold a long position. Conversely, if the down value is above 50 and the up value is below 50, as on the chart below, the trend is bearish, and you could opt to go short. Identify Potential Trend Changes Crossovers of the two lines often indicate that the market is changing direction. When Aroon Up crosses above Aroon Down, the market may be starting a new bullish trend. It is considered to be underway when the Aroon Up line reaches 100 and is confirmed if it remains between 70 and 100, with the Aroon Down between 0 and 30. A bearish turn could be emerging if Aroon Down crosses over the Aroon Up line and reaches 100. If it remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Up holds between 0 and 30, the bearish move is confirmed. You could utilise this as a signal to go long once the Aroon Up crosses above the Aroon Down and go short once the Aroon Down crosses above the Aroon Up. Note that sometimes the lines will break above 50 before crossing over each other. Assess Trend Strength Values between 70 and 100 not only confirm a trend is underway but also point to its strength. The closer to 100 the reading, the stronger the trend. Values closer to zero indicate that the momentum is weak. Understanding the strength of the move can help you decide whether to enter, exit or remain in a position. Identify Consolidation Periods The lines moving in parallel suggest that the market is consolidating within a range, as shown in the chart below. If both are below 50, no new highs or new lows have been set in the last 12.5 periods. Traders can take the opportunity to monitor the market and look for the next crossover in the Aroon Up and Down indicator lines to signal in which direction the asset will move to break out of the range. How to Combine Aroon with Other Indicators As technical indicators sometimes provide false signals, traders try to combine multiple analytical tools to confirm trends, reversals, and momentum before taking a position. Here’s how to use the Aroon Up and Down indicator with various other tools to help direct your trading. Moving Averages When a moving average points to an upward movement alongside the Aroon lines, it might be a bullish signal to enter a long trade. And when both tools are bearish, you could choose to go short. The death cross – a short-term moving average falling below its longer-term moving average, signalling a decline in a price – and the golden cross, in reverse, may be combined with Aroon crossovers to identify changes in direction. You might opt to check higher timeframes for the Aroon chart to filter out noise. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Combining Aroon Up and Aroon Down with the RSI often provides a strong indication of a reversal. The RSI and spikes in the Aroon help you to identify overbought or oversold conditions. When the RSI is in an overbought or oversold zone, and the Aroon moves above 50, it may provide a potential entry point for a trade. Donchian Channels The Donchian Channels identify potential breakouts and reversals, and you can refer to the Aroon lines plus the 100-period moving average for confirmation. If the price rises within the upper Donchian channel above the 100-period moving average with the Aroon pointing to a strong uptrend, you could take a long position, whereas confirmation of a downtrend could prompt you to go short. Parabolic SAR If the Parabolic SAR indicates that the market has bottomed, suggesting a buy trade, you could check the Aroon to confirm that the price has reached the reversal stage into an uptrend. You could initiate a long position with a stop loss placed below the first Parabolic SAR dot or using Fibonacci intervals. Conversely, if the Aroon suggests the asset could reverse into a decline, you could confirm the signal with the Parabolic SAR to initiate a short trade. Aroon Indicator: Advantages and Disadvantages There are several advantages to using the indicator, including that: It’s simple to read, making it easy to analyse and suitable for beginners It effectively signals changes in direction It provides valuable insights when used in conjunction with other technical indicators It allows the use of customisable time periods to fit your needs While it is useful, there are also disadvantages, including: As a lagging indicator, it misses out on trading opportunities at the start of a trend It measures the time between new highs or new lows but not how much the price has changed Sometimes, it provides false signals in choppy markets as the rapid price changes cause it to whipsaw Sometimes, it gives late signals when the asset has already moved and is preparing to retrace, especially when you apply the Aroon indicator without other indicators Conclusion The Aroon technical indicator is a simple-to-use technical indicator comprising two lines that help you to determine the direction and strength of asset price trends. It is most effective when used on charts in conjunction with other technical indicators and patterns to provide confirmation before taking a position. You can open an FXOpen account to practise using the Aroon indicator and other tools of technical analysis. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by FXOpen
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