NVAX trade ideas
NVAX possible ABCD patternI'm just learning to read some stock charting trends. Wondering what you all think of this.
NVAX - Long from Pull back support at $1.73 to $2.37 & higher NVAX had huge run on very big volume, and now its pulling back to support. It has big % insider buying. We think it will continue upward from its current label.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- January 17, 2018
Pattern/Why- Aggressive reversal play potential
Entry Target Criteria- Current label ($1.73)
Exit Target Criteria- 1st Target $2.37, 2nd Target Momentum
Stop Loss Criteria- $1.56
Indicator Notes- Big insider buying
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
Bounce playNVAX has entered the Bollinger Bands and is no longer overbought. Bulls power is even stronger on this red day which leads me to believe a rebound should happen once this reaches a support; the support being perhaps the EMA9.
Long NVAXLong term consolidation on NVAX. Volatile name. Time before a new earnings announcement so its volatility can be placed. Long postition with a stop at 0.95. Waiting for another sudden pop like the one highlighted. If not watching markets, probably worth setting a take profit order to be sure not to miss a bounce into above 1.30 range.
Scale into the dip and wait for the dumb investors and hopefulsStock is trending down, but has large institutional ownership and still has holders that are hopeful. Wait for a low price buy and hold for the hopeful, dumb, or both, to come run it up for the day then sell it to them
NVAX lottery ticketBeginning a move up from the BOTTOM - its a $1 stock. Most of these will go bankrupt. But this one has some nice data behind it and vaccines for Zika/ RSV etc in late stage clinical trials. keep this idea and look at in 1 year - stock has some predicting $12 -- if we get to $10 that is not doubling your money.. its 10x! Oh did I mention the BIll and Melinda Gates foundation are also behind it?? risk 5k to make 50k??
NVAX- Breakout Long opportunity from $1.55 to $2.37NVAX looks really good breakout opportunity. Its just tethering 50 day moving average, a break above will be Long Entry confirmation., and we think it will easily hit 2.40 area.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- break above $1.55
Exit Target Criteria- $2.37
Stop Loss Criteria- $1.29
You can check our detailed analysis on NVAX in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 3:45"
Trade Status: Pending
***Premium Income***NVAX is currently expecting some volatility in the near future given by the prices of these options. Here is one with 43 days to expiry with a 46% margin or error! These incredible numbers translates into 15% cash on cash return in 43 days if not assigned! The delta of this option is at 16.44 which means for the writer or seller of this option, you have a 83.56% chance of keeping that entire premium! Great odds!
What to do with Novavax nowElliot wave suggests downward momentum for the past two years, and yesterday NVAX investors got their hearts crushed. Where can it go from here? Based on yesterdays market activity, I see it headed towards the 1.618 retracement regardless of upward or doward movement. so, if it heads further south we could see high 80s but under a dollar, and if demand increases it would head towards about 2.08. So in other words, it could lose about, say 30-40 more cents but has the potential to rise close to double that at 2.08. In fact, I'd say it's likely to rise to about 2 to stay within LT S/R/. Let me know your thoughts!
Bearish case against NovavaxIs NVAX in the midst of a Long term wave four, or a short term wave four? If it's a long term wave four, I could see it falling as low as 1 to continue the downward momentum.
Long NVAXPretty reasonable target for a retracement, with stop loss just below the range support.
Small possibility of double bottoming at 1.17 too! so be prepared for it.
Oct 21th $1.5 CALLS
NVAX TRADE UPDATEI figured I'd clean up this setup a little bit on the chart to show what's going on with this trade a little more clearly, since we're running into opex, and I'll have to do something with it here shortly. I also for mapping out what I'm going to do if price does certain things relative to my cost basis and original stock purchase price.
The trade originally started out as a "Plain Jane" covered call, where I bought shares at 7.54 and sold the Sept 16th 8 call for something like a 6.39 debit (so my cost basis in the shares at that point was 6.39/share). I proceeded to sell the Sept 16th 5 short put to further reduce cost basis in my shares, as well as to sell some premium in this unusually high implied volatility underlying (I filled the short put for an additional .67 ($67)/contract credit. When, after all, can you get >$50/contract credit for a somewhat far out-of-the-money short put in an <$10 underlying -- rarely. After selling the put, my cost basis in the shares would be 6.39 minus .67 or 5.72/share.
Currently, the 8 short call is valued at .72 ($72) (it was originally $115), and the short put is valued at .25 ($25) (originally, $67).
Rolling into expiry, I'm looking to take the short put off at near maximum profit (.05 or less). If price finishes above $8 at expiry, my shares will be called away at $8, and I'll be out of the trade. However, what should I do if price either finishes (a) between my stock purchase price and the short call or (b) price finishes below my stock purchase price, but above my original cost basis for the covered call (6.93/share)?
If price finishes "between", I'm likely to just treat the trade from that point forward as a straight "speculative long" stock play and set a stop loss for my shares at break even and then let the trade ride. The reason why I would probably not continue to sell calls against and set a stop loss on the stock is to avoid the scenario where I would get stopped out on the stock and have a naked speculative short call hanging out there which could get painful if price whips higher on news (which is due out sometime in the 4th quarter and most likely at a presentation NVAX is going to give in mid-October).
If price finishes lower than what I paid for the stock originally, but above my cost basis for the original covered call, I'm likely to just close it entirely out, having made profit on the short put and on the covered call setup ... .
Personally going long NVAXseekingalpha.com
Bioresearch stock. Fundamentals discussed in above article.
From my standpoint it technically looks good. If stage 3 trials work out should get big jump up. If you ever invested in biotech stocks before you know they often do not do well in final trials.
Personally will use recent daily lows as my stop (horizontal line on the daily chart).
Take care. Enjoy the weekend. We never know how many we have left to enjoy.
