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NVDA trade ideas

2/26/25 - $nvda - It's a buy into print...2/26/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA It's a buy into print... 1/ "It's dot com 2.0" A: dot com was consumer-first, AI is enterprise-first; dot com lacked infrastructure for years, AI has all the infrastructure required; dot com companies were memes, the largest AI companies generate piles of cash B/ "but AI doesn't generate revenue" A: you heard this low IQ meme on X? what if you're Meta and not hiring new engineers b/c AI systems are replacing your workforce? don't just look at revenue today, need to look at how AI is being deployed across the cost structure. the revenue for something like NASDAQ:META is actually coming thru better ad targeting (they're the best example of large-scale enterprise deploying AI today, there are many "bad" examples - sure), but the point is, don't just look at revenue. revenue will scale fast. but cost is just as important to the bottom line of "why invest" C/ "msft is cutting across datacenter... leases... OMG" A: they realized that there's a lot of dumb get-rich-have-too-much-QE-money-and-wanna-do-AI stuff getting built. so let's just "rent not own" at the margin. pretty logical. they're also realizing perhaps they need more than just OpenAI as a partner. logical. msft not going anywhere. Satya is no dumb cookie. he realizes many AI mkts will be winner take all and they're identifying those. massive oppty ... My base case going into NVDA EPS this week was a beat/raise and stock either flat or sell off to find a trade-worthy floor deep-seek style. But we freaked out yesterday on emotions across the board. not saying we have "the event" that yet marks the bottom for risk assets, so long as we have yields floating reasonably high, inflation expectations not yet well understood (btw they're going lower, but the mkt thinks opposite at the moment) and a lot of toilet tweets that still move a skiddish tape. tons of value out there already. so y'day i think we set up for a nvda beat, raise and stock actually holding up. while i've traded the name a lot, i don't have an outright position into print b/c i still prefer the NYSE:TSM trade to NASDAQ:NVDA all else equal. i think more upside on '25/'26... for a much cheaper price and the closest you get to moat. i'm also taking a flyer position on NASDAQ:MU which i think will be the USSA winner in HBM and multiples if i'm right are dirty cheap compared to fishing in the #3, #4... pond w stuff like NASDAQ:AVGO (too expensive ATM for me), NASDAQ:AMD (too much overhang awaiting next results, rangebound for now) etc. etc. i like NASDAQ:ALAB if you're playing high growth and reasonable multiple. hope that helps. not much in the way of valuation for me here in this note for the print. this is more of a feel game for now. but in the scheme of things... NASDAQ:NVDA remains incredibly cheap. yup. V
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by VROCKSTAR
Nvidia Earnings Right Ahead! Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) is set to announce its Q4 FY2025 earnings results after the market closes today. The report will be for the full fiscal year and covers the period between 1 November (2024) and 31 January (2025). As the last of the Magnificent Seven stocks to report, Nvidia’s earnings results are a widely anticipated market event. Heading into the earnings release, the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index – represents an equal-weighted measure of Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) – dipped below the 10% threshold to indicate a correction. Furthermore, major US equity markets are on the back foot, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 down nearly 2% this month and crossing south of its 50-day simple moving average. Analysts’ Estimates for NVDA Earnings Nvidia has a consistent history of exceeding estimates and raising expectations. Wall Street forecasts Nvidia’s revenue will reach US$38.1 billion for Q4 FY2025, reflecting an eye-watering 73% year-on-year (YY) rise. Should actual revenue align with expectations, it would surpass the company’s Q3 FY2025 estimate (US$37.5 billion). Nvidia’s bottom line (net income) is also projected to climb to US$21.08 billion, up from US$12.84 billion in the same quarter a year prior. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) is also expected to increase to US$0.84, which would mark a 62% YY rise. Regarding current analysts’ ratings (Refinitiv), approximately 54% recommend a ‘Buy’, 37% a ‘Strong Buy’, and 9% suggest a ‘Hold’. The options implied volatility for the stock suggests the company’s share price could swing 8% in either direction. However, I want to add that although heightened volatility is evident heading into the event, it is important to consider that implied volatility reflects how far options investors anticipate the stock price to move. Consequently, it is not always reliable and has, in the past, fluctuated as high as 16% and as low as 0.5% before NVDA earnings reports. Blackwell Chip Supply Concerns Concerns remain high over the Blackwell chip supply. If manufacturing issues regarding this are mentioned in today’s report and the share price drops, some investors may see this as a dip-buying opportunity, given that supply problems are likely temporary. This, coupled with limited evidence of a slowdown in demand, potentially positions the stock well for the future. Of course, while Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek recently carved out a dent in Nvidia’s share price, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently made the headlines, commenting that although DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model is ‘impressive’, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space will still need to rely on Nvidia’s chips. I expect Huang to reiterate similar comments today. Supporting Huang’s latest comments, it is worth acknowledging that all of the key US Hyperscalers – large data centres and cloud service providers that offer computing and data solutions – confirmed capital expenditures on AI data centres. Although Microsoft was recently thrown into the spotlight after reports from TD Cowen noted that it has started to cancel leases from some of its data centre capacity in the US, the company has since stated that they ‘will continue to grow strongly in all regions’. Microsoft also repeated that it would still spend US$80 billion on capital expenditures for the fiscal year. What Do the Charts Say? First and foremost, you will note that the stock has not done much this year and is currently trading at similar levels seen in June 2024. The weekly chart, however, offers some interesting observations. The stock pencilled in an all-time high of US$153.13 at the beginning of the year and established the start of a double-top pattern that was recently completed (the neckline was breached, a horizontal line taken from the low of US$126.86). In addition, the pattern’s profit objective is still calling for attention to the downside at US$105.30. Therefore, given the break of weekly trendline support and the double-top pattern’s downside target not yet being reached, I feel there is (technical) scope for a push lower to around the US$105ish region. If earnings do surprise to the downside, it will take a 16.7% drop to reach the said level!
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by FPMarkets
NVDA at a Pivotal Level! Reversal Incoming or More Downside?Technical Analysis (TA) & Price Action NVIDIA (NVDA) has been in a clear downtrend, forming a falling wedge on the 1-hour timeframe, which is often a precursor to a potential reversal. The stock is approaching a critical support level near $124-$126, where buyers may step in. Key observations: * Trend Structure: NVDA remains in a falling wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal formation if it breaks out. * Support & Resistance: * Major Resistance: $134 (previous breakdown level). * Key Support: $124 (PUT support zone). * Breakout Target: $138 - $143 if NVDA reclaims momentum. * MACD Indicator: Slightly bearish but showing early signs of a potential crossover, indicating momentum shift. * Stoch RSI: Approaching overbought conditions, meaning a relief rally could be on the horizon. Options Flow & GEX Analysis The GEX (Gamma Exposure) indicator signals significant PUT positioning at $120-$124, making it a crucial level for a bounce. A breakdown below this zone could trigger a gamma-driven sell-off, while a breakout above $134 could lead to a short squeeze. * IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 63.3, with IVx avg at 85.8%, indicating high volatility. * Call Side Bias: 22.1% of options flow, showing some bullish positioning despite the decline. * Key GEX Levels: * PUT Wall & Key Support: $124 → Holding above could trigger a relief bounce. * CALL Resistance & Upside Target: $138 → Breakout above this would confirm a reversal. Trade Plan & Suggestions 📌 Bullish Reversal Setup (Preferred Play) * Entry: Above $130 with confirmation. * Target 1: $134 * Target 2: $138-$143 (Extended breakout target). * Stop-loss: Below $124 📌 Bearish Breakdown Setup (Hedge Play) * Entry: Below $124 with strong selling pressure. * Target: $120 → $115 (Next PUT Wall). * Stop-loss: Above $128 Final Thoughts NVDA is at a make-or-break zone, with $124 as the key support level to watch. If it holds, we could see a sharp reversal toward $134+. However, breaking below could bring another leg down to $120-$115. Given the high volatility, traders should be prepared for sharp price movements. 📢 Risk Management: Use tight stop-losses and wait for confirmation before entering a trade. 🔹 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk accordingly before trading.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BullBearInsights
Nvidia (NVDA) Scalping & Mid-Term Analysis Market Overview Trend: Strong Bearish 📉 Resistance: $128.83 → EMA 200 acts as a ceiling Support: $126.00 → Short-term demand zone Indicators: MACD: Bearish momentum but flattening RSI: 46.16 (Neutral), no clear reversal signal VWAP: Below average → sellers maintain control 🩸 Risk: Upcoming earnings report tomorrow could trigger volatility 🔥 Scalping Strategy (5x Leverage) 🩸 Momentum Scalping: Buy: Near $126.50–$127.00, targeting $128.50 (+1.2%) Sell: Near $128.50–$129.00, targeting $126.50 (-1.5%) Stop-loss: Below $125.90 🩸 Breakout Scalping: Above $129.00: Long to $133.00 (+3.1%) Below $126.00: Short to $124.00 (-1.6%) 🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks) Bullish above $130: If Nvidia beats earnings expectations, possible $135-$140 retest Bearish below $126: If earnings disappoint, likely drop to $120 🔥 News & Market Context 🩸 Earnings Report Tomorrow → Nvidia’s Q4 results could cause a major move 🩸 AI Sector Sentiment: Bullish long-term, but short-term risk is high 🔥 Decision: 🩸 Short-term: Scalp long near $126.50, sell at $128.50+ 🩸 Mid-term: Wait for earnings to define the trend 🩸 Ideal Play: Scalp bounces cautiously, big move expected post-earnings 👑 Final Verdict: "Volatility is the playground of the prepared. Adapt or be left behind." – LucanInvestor
NASDAQ:NVDA
by LucanInvestor
$NVDA Earnings SetupNASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia needs to absolutely dominate the market with both earnings and guidance. Last time they beat by 10% and sold off. Right now is a very difficult time in the market. Many tech companies are beating earnings, then selling off. Shay expects Nvidia to report strong earnings, however, he sees Nvidia having a pullback quarter but the timing is uncertain. As long as it holds the 200 MA, he remains in position. Nvidia has cemented its position in the AI and quantum computing thematics, with its CUDA platform and NVDL Link being essential for future workloads. Doubt remains though about lowered AI cloud workloads due to compute restraints. Demand is still way higher than supply, but questions remain surrounding easing of supply constraints and whether Nvidia has another leg left for exponential growth. Here are our key levels to watch through earnings: Under bullish trendline and $130.56, aim for $114. Over bullish trendline and $130.56, aim for $140.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by PennyBois
NVDA Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26, 202📌 Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure & Price Action: * NVDA recently broke down from 141-143, currently consolidating around 135.01. * Support Levels: * 134.27 (current price zone, short-term support). * 129.08 (major support & put wall zone). * 123-120 (critical gamma zone, could see acceleration if breached). * Resistance Levels: * 136.84 (POC, first resistance). * 141.46 (VAH & key rejection level). * If NVDA loses 129, expect a sharper decline to 123-120. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): 136.84 → Key resistance level that needs to be reclaimed for upside. * Value Area High (VAH): 141.46 → Major resistance zone. * Value Area Low (VAL): 134.27 → Must hold for buyers to prevent further decline. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish, downward momentum is still present. * Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but no confirmation of a reversal yet. 🛠️ Options GEX Analysis * Call Resistance: * 145-150 → High gamma resistance, strong call walls. * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 129 → Highest Put Wall & Negative NETGEX Support. * 120-118 → Strong Put Wall—if broken, NVDA could drop significantly. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 51.9 | IVx Avg 79.4 → Higher volatility, larger price swings expected. * Call Positioning 23.7% → Weak bullish positioning, suggesting more downside risk. 📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) 🔹 Entry: Short below 134 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 129.08 (Put Wall Support).
🔹 Target 2: 120-118 (Put Wall Breakdown Level).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 138 (invalidates breakdown).
🔹 Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 135/125 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 135P/120P for risk control). 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) 🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 138-141, targeting 145+.
🔹 Target 1: 141.46 (POC, first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 145.00 (major resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 134 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy: * Sell 120/115 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. 🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 138+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 129, strong gamma exposure can push NVDA lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BullBearInsights
5
NVDA | $100 supportNASDAQ:NVDA update on how price action is looking like compared to the last post. We mainly saw price stalling out around $120 after the gap was made, and then a anticipation for movement back to resistance. After analyzing how buyers did over time we expect more strength in sellers as buyers lost a bit of steam and also created lower highs. Could imagine a selloff back to $100 then a quick move back up to resistance once again. A bit too soon to tell but will keep an eye out.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Nathanl19
2
NVDA TA - Earnings Week 2/24### **NVIDIA (NVDA) - 1D Chart Analysis (Earnings Consideration)** --- ### **1. Key Observations** #### **NVDA Closed at $130.28 (-3.09%)** - **Bearish pullback from resistance at $135 - $138**, rejecting near recent highs. - Currently testing **$130 as support**, a key short-term level. - **Earnings are this week**, which could lead to **increased volatility and large price swings**. #### **Volume & Momentum** - **Higher volume selling** today, indicating some profit-taking before earnings. - RSI is cooling off but still within **neutral territory**, leaving room for further downside if earnings disappoint. --- ### **2. Key Support & Resistance Levels** #### **Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)** - **$135 - $138** → Major resistance. Needs a breakout to confirm bullish continuation. - **$140.87 - $144.90** → Strong resistance zone if NVDA rallies post-earnings. #### **Support Levels (Bearish Targets)** - **$127.69** → Short-term support. A break below could trigger further downside. - **$124.50 - $121.50** → Strong demand zone. - **$118.04 - $114.78** → Key level for a deeper correction. --- ### **3. Earnings Consideration & Strategy** #### **Scenario 1: Bullish Earnings Reaction** - If NVDA **beats expectations** and provides strong guidance: - **Break above $135 - $138** could target **$140 - $145**. - **Calls or shares breakout play** on confirmed strength. #### **Scenario 2: Bearish Earnings Reaction** - If NVDA **misses or provides weak guidance**: - **Break below $127.69** could lead to a drop toward **$124, then $118**. - **Potential hedge play with puts or selling covered calls near $135 resistance**. #### **Scenario 3: Neutral / Mixed Reaction** - If earnings are **in line but not a major catalyst**: - NVDA may **chop between $127 - $135**, leading to range-bound action. - A **straddle or strangle options strategy** could capture post-earnings volatility. --- ### **4. Hedge Strategy for Long-Term Investors** 💡 **Selling Covered Calls on Big Green Days** - If holding NVDA long-term, consider **selling covered calls** into resistance near **$135 - $140** on any strong green days this week. - **Expiration:** Post-earnings, to capture elevated IV. - **Risk Management:** Be prepared to roll the calls if NVDA spikes post-earnings. --- 📌 **Conclusion:** NVDA is at a **critical level ahead of earnings**, currently holding **$130 support** while rejecting **$135 resistance**. **Earnings will be a major catalyst**, with a **bullish reaction targeting $140+, and a bearish reaction potentially bringing $124 - $118 into play**. **For long-term holders, selling covered calls into strength this week could be a smart hedge.** 🚀
NASDAQ:NVDA
by EthicalxTrader
NVIDIA's Run is done!?With growing tensions between the two economical titans in U.SA & China further exasperated by the new administration in the white house & their looming tariff charges, we arrive at a major junction with what seems to be the worst possible time as Nvidia a major pillar of the recent success enjoyed by the tech industry and no doubt world economy as a by product gears up its financial data at a time where stains are being spotted on the floor leading to early signs of blood on the streets. Technical analysis shows that decline in price action could see a weak end of the month for Nvidia, the market is showing signs of fear with a large selloff in the tech sector with the S&P dropping 2.25% week ending 21/02, if financial data released by Nvidia is not pleasing to shareholders a major sell of could continue what was started in December and see price head to as low as $46. Eyes will also be on the situation of Taiwan and how hostile the relationship becomes between the USA, China & Taiwan.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by AMBK21
Never Nvidia, No? Surely Not!I hadn't looked at the NASDAQ:NVDA chart for months until today and I simply can't unsee this. NVDA appears to be in the final stages of a Weekly Double Top pattern. You can clearly see two near equal highs from November 24 and January 25. After the neck of the Double Top was breached, the price attempted to reach a new high but failed. The failed high was powered by 3 consecutive weeks of declining volume which suggests momentum exhaustion. If NVDA price drops through $126, it is very possible that the price could fall towards $55. Why is the price projection so low? The last 1/4 low has already been breached, so this level is unlikely to serve as strong support, leaving the price to potentially falls freely towards 2024's low. The green areas highlight the Bullish Fair Values Gaps for NVDA on the Weekly time frame. As you can see there are numerous and they are all underneath the current price! Won't Earnings push it to ATH? It's of course it's possible. And if it did, it wouldn't necessarily invalidate this set up! Let's see what happens!
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TheTradeBorough
3
NVDA Near Historic Highs: Awaiting Key Breakout SignalsI’m sharing a weekly chart analysis for NVDA, focusing on its current position near historical highs at $129 after a bounce from $90. From the logarithmic scale chart, it's clear that NVDA has been in a long-term progression channel since July 2015. Currently, the price is positioned on the upper deviation line of this channel, indicating a potential resistance area. Given this position on the logarithmic scale, I am leaning towards a short bias as it suggests we could see a pullback or correction. I’ve also identified two cup & handle patterns, each with their respective targets. However, these patterns will only be validated based on the next price movements. While there is still a blue support trend and a red resistance trend in play, the price near its historical highs and its proximity to the upper boundary of the progression channel suggest that a downward movement could be more likely. However, due to the large time scale of the weekly chart, we should wait for further confirmation of a downtrend before taking a short position. For now, I recommend caution and suggest waiting for a confirmed breakout or breakdown from the current channel before making any decisive trades. I’d love to hear your insights and thoughts on this setup.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Eymen-GUVEN
NVDA Corrections that Conquer: Discover Your Key Entry PointsIn today's market, corrections can offer great opportunities for finding the right entry points. For example, if you notice a price pullback, you might consider looking at levels such as 126, 113, and 103. At 126, you might see the first moderate correction, suggesting a potential spot to step in as the selling pressure eases a bit. Moving down to 113, the price action often indicates a more solid support level where the market seems to have absorbed a fair share of the selling, possibly setting the stage for a rebound. Finally, 103 could represent a deeper correction where the price has hit a point of significant support—this might be the moment where the market is ready to turn around and resume its upward trend. Remember, these levels are just part of a broader analysis. It's important to combine them with other technical indicators and risk management strategies to make well-informed decisions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks, and you should conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Robert_V12