Reverse Head and shoulders1-3 month time frame, next earnings release could be catalyst along with recently launched open source AI tools.
Appears to be reverse h&s forming
NVDA trade ideas
$NVDA -trendline resistance at $123NVDA - Stock Up after hours after CEO mentioned company's Blackwell chip on schedule. Stock has trendline resistance at $123.50. looking for calls if that level breaks. Stock is strong on indicators.
NVDA Possible downtrendFrom the daily chart I see a possible rising wedge. New to trading would love to hear some other opinions or ideas.
Reacting to Change Part 1: Consolidation PhasesWelcome to our 2-part series on adapting to change in trading, where we dive into the art of staying flexible in dynamic market environments. In Part 1, we’ll explore how traders can effectively navigate consolidation phases and avoid the pitfalls of rigid analysis.
The Trap of Over-Defining Consolidation: Price Action is Fluid, Not Fixed
One of the biggest challenges in trading is dealing with consolidation phases—those times when the market enters a short-term equilibrium, leading to a high degree of random price action. During these phases, it’s tempting to box price movements into neatly defined patterns like triangles or channels. While this can offer an initial framework, the reality is that consolidation patterns are constantly evolving. Trying to over-define these phases or stick rigidly to a single pattern often leads to frustration and missed opportunities.
In consolidation, price action is fluid, not fixed. What starts as a symmetrical triangle might morph into a flag, or a sideways range may develop into a wedge. These shifts are common because consolidation phases by definition are periods of indecision, where neither buyers nor sellers dominate, causing price to "walk" in a seemingly random manner. When we try to force the market into the confines of a rigid pattern, we risk missing these subtle changes and become despondent when the market doesn’t behave as expected.
Instead, successful traders stay adaptive. Don’t be afraid to re-draw the boundaries of a consolidation phase as new information emerges. You can begin with an initial hypothesis based on a recognisable price pattern, but it’s essential to remain open to the possibility that this pattern might evolve or even fail entirely. Flexibility allows you to adjust your parameters to reflect what the market is telling you rather than clinging to a fixed idea.
By embracing the fluid nature of consolidation phases and adjusting your approach as price action unfolds, you stay aligned with the market, increasing your chances of catching the eventual breakout or breakdown.
Real-World Example: FTSE 100
In this example, the FTSE 100 moves from a small initial consolidation phase into a sideways range with failures at the top and bottom, before eventually breaking out. Those who failed to adapt to the changing consolidation structure may have been caught out with false breakouts and missed the eventual breakout.
FTSE100 Daily Candle Chart: Phase 1
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Phase 2
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Phase 3
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Breakout
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Combine Flexibility with Core Principles
While flexibility is key, it’s essential to combine it with a solid foundation of core principles. Flexibility without a framework can lead to erratic decisions, but by grounding your adaptability in a few guiding rules, you’ll better navigate consolidation phases.
1. Aligning with the Dominant Trend: Consolidation phases have a tendency to resolve in line with the dominant trend. Hence, the first step is to define the dominant trend, which varies depending on your trading timeframe. Whether you're using moving averages or trendlines, having a clear sense of the overarching market direction can guide your expectations for a breakout.
2. Defining a Breakout: A breakout from consolidation is more than just price moving outside a range. Look for an expansion in trading ranges, backed by an increase in volume. The combination of these factors helps confirm that the market is truly breaking out, not just teasing false moves.
3. Watch for Changes in Volatility: Volatility often contracts during consolidation phases. One of the best indicators of an impending breakout is when volatility begins to contract. Pay attention to tightening price ranges and be on alert when those ranges start to widen.
Real-World Example: Nvidia (NVDA)
In this example we see the importance of using core principles to as a framework for flexibility. The 50 day moving average (MA) and 200MA clearly show the dominant trend is bullish. This is important during Phase 3 (below) in which the market appears to break lower. In Phase 4 we see clear volatility compression at the top end of the consolidation range – a clear indicator of an impending breakout.
NVDA Daily Candle Chart: Phase 1
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Phase 2
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Phase 3
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Phase 4
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Breakout
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Avoiding Despondency Through Flexibility
Expecting a breakout or breakdown that never materialises can lead to frustration, especially if you’re locked into a rigid view of the market. By combining flexibility with your core principles, you’ll be better prepared to react when the market shifts—and avoid becoming despondent in the process.
The secret to successfully navigating consolidation phases isn’t about predicting the next move—it’s about reacting to change while being guided by solid principles. Patterns evolve, and so must your approach. By balancing flexibility with core rules around trend direction, breakouts, and volatility, you can capitalise when the market finally resolves its range.
In Part 2 of our series, we’ll explore how adapting to trend changes is just as crucial as navigating consolidations, and why flexibility is a trader’s most valuable asset in any market condition.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Box range: 109.63-113.62 ~ 123.90-130.04
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(1M chart)
A gap has formed in the 109.63-113.62 range.
Therefore, I think it is possible to fall to around 109.63.
Since the StochRSI indicator is showing signs of entering the oversold range, I think the area around 109.63-113.62 shows that it is an important support and resistance area.
-
(1W chart)
I think the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is passing through the 109.63-113.62 range, proving that this range is an important support and resistance range.
If it falls below 109.63, we should check for support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart or near the HA-Low indicator on the newly created 1W chart.
- The M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is currently passing through the 83.13 range,
- and the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is at the 12.77 point.
Therefore, as the price falls, it is expected that the area near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart will become an important support and resistance range.
-
(1D chart)
The point of interest is in which direction it deviates from the 109.63-113.62 section ~ 123.90-130.04 section.
Currently, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators on the 1W and 1D charts are quite far apart.
Therefore, if it falls below 109.63, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W and 1D charts is expected to rise and be newly created.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low section has been formed.
Therefore, if the HA-Low indicator is created this time, it is expected that a movement to create a new wave will begin.
-
If it falls from the HA-High indicator, it is likely to touch the HA-Low indicator.
The creation of the HA-High indicator means that a high section has been formed.
Therefore, in order for a full-scale uptrend to begin, the price must remain above the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, when a full-scale uptrend begins, the HA-High indicator will show a stepwise uptrend.
-
Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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Nvidia Lower High (77 Next Target)Yesterday the Nvidia stock (NVDA) produced another lower high, this is the fourth one in a row. This simple signal predicts lower prices.
This lower high is coupled with decreasing volume. Trading volume has been dropping since early March 2024, more than six months.
The main low after the last All-Time High was hit 5-August. Since we have a lower high on the pull-back, this implies that a lower low follows next.
We can use several methods to extract some targets but based on Fibonacci retracement, the next relevant support level stands at 77. If the drop is weak, we can use a range between 83-77 as support. If the drop is strong, we can consider the next Fib. retracement level and that is 0.786 at 61.
➢ The main support range for the incoming drop sits between 77 and 61.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Livin NVDA Loca We're been livin NVDA Loca for a couple years now, but it seems to be a pretty clear macro ABC up here. The question is, 3-3-3 flat to 80-90; or 3-3-5 to 40-45?
She got dumps like a truck truck truck, baby move your stop, stop, stops
All night long, let me see that Thoooonnnngggggggg
#NVDA: Is price going to hit 200-210? Let's wait and seeDear Traders,
First of all, we are mainly looking at the technical and we make decision on what we see on the chart. That is why in our view, behaviour of the price has shown us that there is possibility of swing buy coming and it can be one of the big buying opportunity/investing opportunity. Please this is no guarantee and do your own research before taking any entries.
Covered call on NVDAI bought more shares here! :-)
Selling the $132 for 1% for 10/25 expiration! =-)
I WOULD LOVE to sell at $132 and pay taxes on more money.
NVDA - Weekly Fall PotentialNASDAQ:NVDA ’s stock has been on a meteoric rise, fueled by the growing demand for AI technology and high-performance computing solutions. However, recent market behavior and technical analysis suggest that a significant pullback may be imminent. The company’s recent 10-for-1 stock split has made shares more accessible to retail investors, but it has also introduced increased volatility. The market has responded positively to the split, but the momentum might be slowing down.
Looking at the NVIDIA chart in a logarithmic scale, we observe three major bullish legs, each with gains exceeding 1000%. The current, third leg appears to be reaching its peak. This trend is further supported by the stock’s position within a rising channel, currently touching the upper boundary, indicating potential resistance. Additionally, lower time frame charts reveal a reversal pattern, suggesting a potential downturn.
Technical indicators show that NVIDIA’s price is at a critical juncture. The stock has demonstrated a reversal pattern in the lower time frames, which is often a precursor to a decline. Moreover, the price is at the top of a rising channel, which typically acts as a resistance level. Given these factors, a pullback seems likely, especially considering the stock’s impressive run-up without significant corrections.
In conclusion, while the broader market sentiment remains optimistic with expectations of new highs for NVIDIA, the technical indicators and recent stock behavior suggest a different story. Investors should be cautious and consider the possibility of a pullback. It is crucial to monitor the stock closely and be prepared for potential profit-taking, especially in the context of the recent stock split and the overall market dynamics.
Richard D Wyckoff charting volume, price and spread. VSA.In this short video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, shows how three universal laws move price on a chart. Supply and Demand, Cause and Effect and Effort Vs Result. This is a Gold chart but this method can be applied to any chart in any timeframe.
www.volumespreadanalysis.com explains the history, the principles and why markets move on news, often against your gut instinct.
WILL A BLACKWELL CHIP SAVE NVIDIA?This past week Oracle announced it is taking orders for the first Al Supercomputer which will be powered by up to 131.072 Nvidia BLACKWELL CHIPS. The NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang also told the conference that the demand for their blackwell chip is so high that some customers are getting emotional..THIS is part reason why the stock rose back by 8.3% the past week. Despite those good news, the stock still seems flat and struggling to break to 125. might see this stock go down again to get some power up before going up.
Nividia How HIGH ARE WE GOING; 135 is on the horizon Good morning Traders
Hope you got your tea and coffee ready I recorded a long video for you to give you the scoop from 4 hour all the the way to 30 minute
First in store we continued with our wave counting: which we always love :)
Second did some projections from our four hour and 30 minute time frame going up
Third we put on a pitchfork to wrap it up like a present
and for a bonus I threw in where we might expect time wise to hit these levels
Enjoy
If you have any feedback on what you like , what you want to learn more about or even what you dont like post it below.
My simple goal is if I can make better videos for you which helps you become a better trader
Happy Hunting for those trades
MB Trader
Yahoo
NVDA Technical Analysis for Oct. 1, 2024Current Price Action
NVDSA shows a descending channel or wedge pattern, indicating a period of consolidation after a significant move. This suggests a potential breakout either upwards or downwards.
The stock is attempting to break out of the channel, signaling a possible bullish move if it continues to hold above the trendline.
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance:
$124.47 - $127.60: This is the nearest zone where the price has previously rejected, marking it as a strong short-term resistance area.
$130.00: A key psychological resistance level, which could act as a major hurdle for any bullish continuation.
Immediate Support:
$121.40: This level aligns with recent consolidation, serving as a short-term support.
$117.71 and $114.88: These are strong support levels marked by previous lows. If the price breaks these levels, it could lead to further bearish pressure.
$112.38: The lowest support marked on the chart, critical for assessing long-term bearish trends.
Entry and Exit Points
Bullish Entry:
If the price breaks above $124.47 and holds, this could provide a good entry point for a long position with a potential target of $127.60 and then $130.00.
Consider adding if momentum picks up and volume increases during the breakout.
Bearish Entry:
A break below $121.40 would signal potential weakness. If the price moves further down past $117.71, it could be a strong short opportunity with a target towards $114.88 or lower.
Exit:
For a bullish position, consider exiting near $127.60 or $130.00 unless there is strong buying pressure.
For a bearish position, take profits around $114.88, with a potential full exit at $112.38 if selling accelerates.
NVDA's price action.
Suggested Direction
Based on the current breakout attempt from the descending channel, NVDA leans slightly bullish. However, the stock must break and hold above $124.47 with increased volume for a stronger bullish case.
On the downside, failure to break above resistance and a move below $121.40 could signal the continuation of the downtrend.
NVDA BOOM!?As posted in recent weeks, NVDA’s stock price continues to move higher after bottoming out in the lower $100 range. This was a liquify grab meant to shake out weak hands. We broke through the price of $126 this past week, and then dropped lower to $120 support. I believe now is the time to buy NVDA with an overall target goal of $138 or higher.
This is just a prediction. Good luck!
NVDA Wyckoff - Weakening demand on 6M chartThe Weis Wave chart for 6 months still shows a clear pattern of weakening demand by its steadily decreasing buying/green waves
NVDA Wyckoff - Weakening demand on 12M chartAn increase in price accompanied by a decrease in volume typically indicates weakening demand.
Fewer buyers are willing to purchase at higher prices which could be a sign that the upward price movement may not be sustainable.
There could be a potential loss of momentum in the price increase.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - NVDA TriangleNVDA has been trading in a range from about 118 - 127 recently and appears to be poised for a big move once it breaks this triangle either up or down.
For longs, you could enter now and stop below 118, or wait for the triangle break above. If it sustains above the triangle after a breakout, it's likely it'll head back to ATH. That would be a good target and you could hold runners or look for new longs if it retests.
For shorts, if 118 is broken it could be a good entry to ride down to the bottom end of the triangle. If the triangle breaks to the downside, I'd be looking at the August low for a first target and then down to the lows from Feb or April as a final target.
I maintain my biases towards the black countAs I have discussed many times previously, we are about to enter the stage where triangles typically will break apart. What will constitute the triangle breaking apart is for price to breach either our purple (a) wave high, or our purple (b) wave low. Price must continue to constrict to maintain the integrity of the triangle. Nonetheless, in my primary analysis I do believe we break upwards in the black count, but as of right now we have no confirmation as whether the purple or black count will prevail.
I suspect this week will be informative.
Chris
NVDA breaks below with mixed feelingsNVDA very recently breaks below its upward trend, but other factors make its break below uncertain.
Volume has been decreasing since its selloff at the peak of the 26th indicating disagreement
RSI has been holding flat at the 50 line instead breaking below
MACD also has not been moving into bearish zone just yet.
The break below is of concern, but so far we are not seeing signs that this will trigger a violent sell off yet. The sell off maybe more muted before turning around back into another rally again.
The TradingView Show: Interest Rates and AI with TradeStationJoin us for our newest episode with David Russell , Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation . We’ll dive into the current market landscape, covering all of the following topics for traders:
1. Market Trends: We’ll provide detailed insights into major stocks and bullish market trends, focusing on META, NVDA, and the evolving landscape of Chinese stocks. Discover how hedge fund managers are navigating these markets and uncover other significant movements you might be missing.
2. Index Review and Interest Rates: Our analysis will dive into macro trends affecting the SPX and NDX, exploring the importance of major indexes. We’ll discuss how rising interest rates are influencing market behavior and the broader economic implications for investors.
3. Commodities: Get the latest updates on oil, especially in light of recent production cuts that are impacting prices globally. We’ll also discuss gold and silver prices, examining why gold has achieved an all-time high while silver remains undervalued and what that means for future trends.
4. Cryptocurrency: Take a closer look at Bitcoin’s recent performance. We’ll explore whether it is on the verge of forming a significant new trend and what factors are driving its volatility in today’s market.
5. Housing Market: Analyze current trends in the housing market and what lies ahead, especially as they relate to rising interest rates, advancements in AI, and productivity improvements. This segment will provide essential insights for anyone interested in real estate investments.
And much more! We encourage you to ask questions and share your feedback in the comments. Now, some important links for you to explore and read:
Explore TradeStation ideas on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
For important disclosure information regarding options, ETFs, and more, please visit:
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Thanks for watching and we'll be back live next month!
NVDA: Buy ideaBuy idea on NVDA as you can see on the chart if only if we have the breakout with force the resistance line and the vwap by a big green candle.
NVIDIA - A leading Indicator for the AI trend and market NVIDIA - NASDAQ:NVDA
🟣The upper purple parallel line is acting as resistance to price at present. A rejection from this long term purple line may be an early warning signal of a significant correction. A break above it would suggest continued positive momentum.
⏳In combination with the above considerations, a breach down and out of short term parallel channel would be a secondary warning signal of a trend change to the negative.
⏳Falling below the 50 week SMA (red) would be a third confirmation of a negative trend shift.
Obviously these levels could all act as support but if they are lost one after the other (price falling below them). It could be an early warning sign of this AI trend slowing.
✅Otherwise, a repeated 142-152 week bull trend out to June 2025 or April 2026 probable for now.
Why Watch Nvidia closer than the rest?
▫️ Apple, Microsoft and NVIDIA are the top three largest companies in the world by market cap. Collectively they are almost $10 trillion worth of market capitalization. That is almost 22% of the total market cap of the S&P500 Index, so all 3 are worth watching for warning signs or positive momentum.
▫️ Nvidia could lead the market as it is providing the shovels (graphics cards) for the AI data digging/sorting and general compute/data storage. If their performance starts to wane its a signal of less digging/sorting and a slowing of purchases from NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT (indicating slowing growth in both). Keeping a close eye on this chart could provide the early warning signals of a trend change, both on the AI front and the entirety of the market cycle.
There is no guarantee of the time sequence continuing on this chart however, these cycles tend to rhyme over time. I hope Nvidia breaks above the purple line at the top of the current long term channel. At present it is stiff resistance, and if price is rejected from here lower, this could be an early warning sign of the a market correction.
Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView.
PUKA
