SMCI 50 after earnings won’t tolerate any less periodSUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC stock forum
SMCI 50 after earnings won’t tolerate any less period
SMCI Bold Thesis: Why SMCI Could Surge After Q3 FY25 EarningsSMCI) is trading at $32.71 and looks ready for major volatility—with the potential for a sharp move upward.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, just a breakdown of key data, risks, and upside potential based on recent developments and my research.
Snapshot: Key Stats
• Current Price: $32.71
• Market Cap: $19.01B
• P/E Ratio: 15.77 (trailing), 12.22 (forward)
• Short Interest: 17.36% (103.6M shares)
• Daily Volatility: 8.44%
• Beta: 1.22 (more volatile than the broader market)
Q3 FY25 Preliminary Results (Announced Apr 29)
• Revenue: $4.5B–$4.6B (missed 5.41B consensus and 5B–6B guidance)
• EPS: $0.29–$0.31 (missed $0.54 consensus)
• Gross Margin: Down 2.2% (~$100M hit)
o Inventory Write-Offs (~70%, ~70M): Older server components likely became outdated due to Nvidia Blackwell transition.
o Expedited Costs (~30%, ~30M): Faster AI product rollouts raised short-term costs.
FY25 Revenue Guidance: Maintained at $23.5B–$25B
Why SMCI Could Pop
1. Short-Term Miss, Long-Term Setup:
The Q3 miss may be due to deferred revenue—possibly ~1B from delayed orders (e.g., tariffs, shipping delays). If these orders land in Q4, SMCI could post 7B revenue and ~$0.45 EPS, helping hit their FY target.
2. Short Squeeze Risk:
With 17.36% of shares shorted, a strong Q3 beat (EPS est. is $0.43) or raised Q4 guidance could trigger short covering. That could send the stock to $65–$70 2 weeks. It's aggressive, but SMCI has rallied this way before.
3. Analysts Are Bullish:
Average target: $54.59 (range $15–$130), with some 17 analysts rate it a “Buy.” Strong Q3/Q4 numbers could push their revised targets into the $60–$80 range.
4. AI Server Demand Remains Strong:
Despite Q3’s margin hit, SMCI remains a leader in AI server infrastructure. Progress on Nvidia Blackwell server launches could reignite enthusiasm.
Why SMCI Could Dip
1. Margin Pressure:
Q3 margins took a 220-bps hit due to write-offs and accelerated spending (a 220-basis-point drop translates to $99–$101M in lost margin (e.g., 2.2% of $4.55B = ~$100M). If margins don’t recover in Q4, investor confidence may fade.
2. Tariff Overhang:
A possible 25% electronics tariff could raise costs or disrupt demand—especially if mentioned during the earnings call.
3. High Volatility:
Daily swings over 8%, and a 1.22 beta mean post-earnings moves could be wild. Profit-taking could cut into any short-term rally.
Valuation Check
• Target Price if Q4 Delivers:
Using a conservative 14x P/E and FY26 EPS estimate of $3.75 → $52.50 fair value.
• Support Zone:
If it drops, look for buying interest around $31.86.
Final Thoughts
The way I see it, SMCI is a classic high-risk, high-reward trade.
If they beat Q3 expectations or give strong Q4 guidance, the combination of AI demand + high short interest could fuel a run toward $65–$70. But weak margins or tariff concerns could derail that. If you're trading this, consider using a tight stop-loss ($31–$32) to manage risk.
What’s your take—bullish on a bounce or cautious on the miss?
AGAIN NO FINANCIAL ADVICE !!!
SMCI Short Seller Data May 2, 2025Total Shares Traded: 45.31m
Total Shorted: 5.27m (11.63%)
SMCI steady 34.2 is the key resistance
SMCI still waiting for a good pump...SMCI Hey everyone, here’s the deal with the price levels to watch:Resistance (where the price might hit a ceiling):
$33.41: This is the highest it’s gone in PM and a spot where it’s been stuck before. If it breaks through and stays above, we could see it climb more.
$33.60 - $33.70: If it keeps pushing up, this is the next big zone to watch—kind of a mental barrier for traders.
Support (where the price might bounce back):
$33.25: Right below where it’s at now, a spot it’s been chilling around lately.
$32.85 - $32.90: It hung out here earlier in PM, so it could hold up if it dips.
$32.62: The lowest it’s gone in PM —if it drops this far, it’s a key spot to watch for a rebound.
Keep an eye on these levels!
If momentum sustains:
Price could retest and break above $33.41.
A reasonable upside target could be $33.60–$33.75 by close.
If it fails to hold support:
It may fall back to $33.25, then possibly retest $32.85 or even $32.62.
GOOD LUCK AND NO FINANCIAL ADVICE
SMCI BLOOMBERG: US Stock Futures Extend Gains After Strong Jobs Report, US Treasuries Fall as Jobs Resilience Sparks US Growth RethinkSMCI BLOOMBERG: US Payroll Growth Top Forecasts With Robust 177,000 Addition, PLUS China Hints at Possible Thaw With US in Evaluating Trade TalksThis could bring some relief / rally today!
No financial Advice
SMCI Short Seller Data May 1, 2025Total Traded Shares: 55.09m
Total Shorted: 5.78m (10.49%)
SMCI China said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US , China Ministry