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TWILIO INC - ATWILIO INC - ATWILIO INC - A

TWILIO INC - A

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TWLO trade ideas

My Thoughts on Twilio's Crash - Dip Buy Time?Two years ago or so I was hanging with some traders around the New York Stock Exchange building in NYC. I was speaking to one trader who had been watching many SaaS & tech stocks breakout, climb higher, and higher, and while he appreciated the business models and articles he read, the move seemed to remind him of the Dotcom Bubble. One company he spoke about was Twilio. He was not even sure what they did as a business. Most people I don't think even understand what companies like Twilio do. But he, he was insistent on it either being a short at some point or a stock to stay far away. The technicals did make sense. The euphoria for a company called "Twilio" just sounded like something in the Dotcom Bubble. While I appreciate the sentiment, I did remember thinking: "Twilio does some $700+ million in revenue every 3 months" and also "The very text messages this trader receives whenever he logs into an app for two-factor auth is probably delivered by Twilio" I did not buy any Twilio at the time, so I missed the run up, I also did not short any, so I missed the recent downmove. However, the conversation has stuck with me for a number of reasons. Let me explain: 1. Not everything is like the past. Yes, the age old "history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme" saying comes to mind. As does "this time is different" but the simple fact is that tech companies in the Dotcom bubble of 2000 were make $0 in revenue. Literally zero. Or maybe a few hundred thousand and trading at 1000x PS ratios or even no ratio at all because there was no revenue to begin with. No matter what someone says about Twilio, the company now generates nearly $1 billion in revenue every three months. 2. Reflecting on Twilio's recent crash, and this conversation that I have been thinking about, I must say that now seems like an interesting point in time whereby the old school traders, the ones who have been there and done that, seen the hype cycles, just may have outdone themselves with their level of pessimism. And so, while I don't have a position in Twilio, it is at the very top of my watchlist for a very fast rally. 3. Twilio's EV to revenue ratio, looking backward at the last 12 months, is 3.5. If you look forward to the next 12 months it is more like 2. And if you look forward 24 months, it is closer to one. Of course, that does imply a lot of growth, but you can look at Twilio's quarterly results to see the growth in this entire industry. I would also add that Twilio has 3x as much cash as debt on the balance sheet. $3 billion in cash to $1 billion in debt. With that being said, I am not sure I fully understand the severe drop in Twilio. I see a lot of people talk about its inability to generate profit or tight margins. However, if a company is generating close to $1 billion in revenue every 3 months, I find it very unlikely that they are unable to turn on the switch, at any point, and start printing cash as needed. Keep in mind that Twilio, like many companies in this space, deliver billions and billions of texts, emails, calls, and everything else every year. If they raise the price just by $0.005 yes, that's right, just a fraction of a penny, they would effectively almost double their entire revenue overnight. Twilio, for example, sends 130+ billion messages every year. Anyways, that's it. I've also marked some levels on the chart that I am looking at.
NYSE:TWLO
by scheplick
7
RectangleAppears to be a baby spinning top hanging on the resistance line. Price is over the prior Channel Down today. Price is just above the .886 of the trend up. It is almost unbelievable that TWLO was over 400 dollars within my lifetime! (o: Perhaps the market did get a bit out of control for a while and perhaps this was slightly overvalued? Dunno. Earnings estimated to be 11-3 AMC and it does not look like analysts expectations are too wonderful at the present time. 5 of 31 analysts are expecting an earnings beat. No recommendation. Upcoming Quarter's Earnings Announce Date 11/3/2022 (Post-Market) EPS Normalized Estimate -$0.35 EPS GAAP Estimate -$1.94 Revenue Estimate $973.05M EPS Revisions (Last 90 Days)* Beat/5 Miss/26
NYSE:TWLO
by lauralea
Rectangle//Channel DownPrice has broken the bottom trendline of the Rectangle which is also a possible short entry level. I see a lot of stocks in rectangles at the bottom but there are still some rectangles at the top. For many at the bottom, there is also a channel down imposing another diagonal resistance trendline that price has to break to get anywhere. Many securities in this situation do not have the momentum to break the channel down resistance line so they are breaking the support line of the Rectangle. TWLO is another example of this situation. TWLO is trying to make higher lows and there are spinning tops, a doji and a baby inverted hammer down there on top of an slightly upsloping trendline that is forming a very small triangle like structure. The spinning top I see right now keeps changing back and forth between red and green. TWLO is fighting right below the .886 Fibonacci Level of the entire trend up and these levels can also impose support and resistance levels. That makes 3 resistance levels very close to price. Support and Resistance levels were made to be broken but TWLO has it's work cut out for it to dig it's way out of this hole. ATL is 22.80. Earnings for Twilio are expected to grow in the coming year, from ($4.27) to ($4.17) per share. Twilio has not formally confirmed its next earnings publication date, but the company's estimated earnings date is Wednesday, October 26th, 2022 based off prior year's report dates. TWLO has a history of earning beats in the past. Since this is below the rectangle support line, short entry level was activated. The other requirement of a confirmed downtrend for a short entry (ES) may be questionable right now so I will mark as neutral until that trendline is broken. Price is trying hard down there and that green trendline is acting as support for now. The .886 is a low place to be, but TWLO has some friends in these low places as well. )o: No recommendation. Don't lose your shadow.
NYSE:TWLO
by lauralea
TWLO - Bottom could be in (don't shoot me if wrong)TWLO has established a strong support zone around 62 - 68 as can be seen on the weekly chart. Weekly bullish divergence in it's RSI can be seen since June while the stock was meandering lower, eventually hitting into the long term support zone and we finally saw a good bounce off this zone on strong volume yesterday. There is a good chance that this zone will continue to act as the support (though never say never!). Those buying near this support could place a stop loss slightly below this zone. However there is a chance the stock could be choppy for a while and we might not see real momentum until it can trade a fair bit higher. Hence a more "conservative" trader would probably prefer to wait till it garners enough momentum to at least break above the near term neckline resistence before going long (by then we have the 20 MA firmly crossing above the 50MA). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:TWLOLong
by Juliac
$TWLO -77% DISCOUNT (52-WK) -81% (ATH)!Twilio is good stock if you are thinking about adding a software and cloud communication/network stock to your watchlist/portfolio. It is currently showing a possible sign of basing, but I think it has a way to go down! The original Heavy buying positions from IPO '16 to beginning of '18 is the $32.65 area! The next set of buyers from Nov. '18 to now are @$92.30 area! Which is good entry to swing to the $450 ATH, but the $32 entry area is a SNIPER! anything in between those two are good entries for long-term.
NYSE:TWLOLong
by twotimezinvestments
1
TWLO/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishTWLO/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Twilio has fallen 81% from its ATH ($457.65) and is approaching the end of a massive Falling Wedge from March 2021.* Recommended ratio: 55% TWILIO, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge from March 2021 at $100.65 support. Volume has been shrinking since early May as Price trades within the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart; this is mildly bullish as it is indicative of an incoming breakout (due to it being a Falling Wedge the bias is to the upside). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 40 as it continues testing 37.47 support for the sixth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 85; the next resistance is at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -10; the next likely target is a test of the descending trendline from May 2020 at -4.57 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways at 33 as Price is attempting to establish support at $100, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to defend $100.65 support then the next likely target is a test of the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge at $120-$125 (this is also the largest supply/demand zone on the chart) before potentially breaking out of the formation to the upside. However, if Price breaks down below the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge at $92.60, the next likely target is a test of $70 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $95.50.
NYSE:TWLO
by dailytaguy
Does TWLO have more ALOT more room to fall? TWLO has seen a dramatic drop off of highs. It is currently downtrending with strong moves under the 10ema on the weekly time frame. I am looking to short the retest of the 10 ema on the weekly chart and short it to the ultimate target of 110. This is the low of the breakout candle made during the week of May 4, 2020. There is support at 150 and 130 between here and then. I plan to take profit at these areas and reenter on bounces unless I start to see signs of a reversal.
NYSE:TWLOShort
by Decam9