ULTA is beauty indeed I was bearish based on the technicals but after Buffet got a stake in this , it took a U-turn .
The chart is primed for a run now.
Long anywhere here.
Target 1 - 400
Target 2 - 480
Target 3 - 520
Stop loss - 330
ULTA trade ideas
ULTA Screaming AccumulationA classic inverse H&S setup on ULTA here. Buffet buying and taking a stake a few weeks/month back makes me even more convinced. This will just take time. The large wicks are indicating that buyers are stepping in and absorbing selling demand from a weekly perspective. The buyers come and save the week. They're going to form this perfect right shoulder and it should launch - might take 6 months or so... NASDAQ:ULTA
Salma is a jerkUlta is above the demand zone and I see the 378-382 as a supply zone on the 4 hour. On Friday there was a strong push towards the upside, but it still has to close above 382 before reaching the first PT of 390. Second Pt is 400 and the third is 410.
Ulta BeautifulBriefly fell below support on a market wide capitulatory event
quickly recaptured
moved back down to retest support
bounced for a higher high
now putting in a higher low with a bullish engulfing daily candle
making this look like 3 rising valleys.
Williams %range indicator is very low on daily monthly and weekly.
Business is doing well, and it has the Buffet Put.
Retailers in general are down bad across the board, and if you want to capture the gains of a recovery, then ULTA seems like an almost certain beneficiary.
ULTA BEAUTY - Potential Cup and Handle formation.ULTA BEAUTY - Could soon Print a Potential Cup and Handle formation which is Bullish.
Here I have switched to a Simple Line Chart to show the possible pattern.
Markets are very choppy at the moment awaiting the FED Rate Cut's Decision.
These predictions are not 100% always true, and need Conviction.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
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Regards Graham.
ULTA Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top on ULTA:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ULTA Beauty prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 380usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-30,
for a premium of approximately $14.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ULTA: This could change the trend! |H & D charts|1-Hour Chart (Left Side)
On the 1-hour chart, the price is moving within a descending triangle pattern, characterized by a series of lower highs converging towards a horizontal support line around $368.84. If the price breaks below the $368.84 support level, it could lead to a further decline, with the next potential support around $358.35 on the daily chart. A break to the upside, above the descending trendline, could invalidate this bearish setup and indicate a potential reversal.
Daily Chart (Right Side)
On the daily chart, the price has recently filled a gap around $388.98, which now acts as a resistance level. After filling the gap, the price pulled back but found support at $368.84, creating a potential short-term base. If the price can hold above $368.84, there could be an attempt to retest the $388.98 resistance. However, failure to maintain above this level might result in a drop toward the $358.35 support level.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $388.98, which is aligned with the previously filled gap, acts as the main resistance.
Support: $368.84 is the immediate support on the 1-hour chart, followed by $358.35 on the daily chart if this level breaks. There is another open gap at $332.92 and a more dramaticc correcction could take ULTA there.
Summary
ULTA is currently consolidating within a descending triangle on the 1-hour chart, with a critical support level at $368.84. The price action around this support will be crucial; a breakdown could lead to further declines.
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Ulta Beauty Stock Analysis: A Technical Perspective Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ULTA ) has been a staple in the beauty industry, known for its robust growth and strong brand presence. However, its stock price has recently been under significant pressure, experiencing a sharp decline of over 42% from its peak of $574 earlier this year to $328, the lowest in over 52 weeks. Despite a temporary boost from Warren Buffett's investment, the technical indicators suggest that the bearish trend may not be over.
Double-Top Formation: A Bearish Indicator
The technical outlook for Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ULTA ) reveals a concerning pattern. The stock formed a double-top pattern at $557, which is a classic bearish signal in technical analysis. A double-top occurs when a stock reaches a high price level twice with a moderate decline between the two peaks, indicating strong resistance at that price level. After the second peak, the stock typically experiences a significant decline, as we’ve seen with Ulta.
The double-top pattern is particularly significant because it suggests that the stock may have reached its peak valuation, and the subsequent downtrend could continue unless there is a strong reversal signal. The neckline of this pattern, around $375, has already been retested, but the stock has failed to maintain support above this level.
Moving Averages and Downward Momentum
Further exacerbating the bearish outlook, Ulta Beauty’s stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ULTA ) has moved below both the 200-week and 50-week moving averages. These moving averages are crucial indicators of long-term and intermediate-term trends, respectively. When a stock trades below these levels, it often signals sustained downward momentum and increased selling pressure.
The 200-week moving average, in particular, is a critical level for long-term investors. Ulta’s drop below this average suggests that the stock’s long-term uptrend has been broken, and the path of least resistance is now downward.
Warren Buffett Boost: A Temporary Reprieve?
The recent 14% rise in Ulta’s stock price following Warren Buffett’s investment through Berkshire Hathaway brought some relief to the embattled stock. However, this boost might be short-lived. While Buffett’s endorsement often leads to a temporary increase in stock prices, the underlying technical indicators suggest that the hype could fade, leading to a resumption of the downtrend.
Investors should be cautious, as the stock’s movement could revert to its bearish trend once the excitement from Buffett’s purchase subsides. The upcoming earnings report, scheduled for August 28, could be a critical moment for the stock. Any disappointment in earnings or guidance could trigger further declines, particularly if the company’s margins continue to shrink.
Potential Downside Targets
Given the current technical setup, Ulta Beauty’s stock could see further declines if the bearish trend persists. The next key support level lies around $300, which could act as a psychological barrier for the stock. If this level is breached, the stock may fall towards the $275 level, which represents a significant support zone established in previous years.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which stands at 54 has been hovering near oversold levels, which might suggest a short-term bounce. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and any rebound may be limited unless accompanied by strong volume and positive fundamental developments.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Ulta Beauty’s technical analysis paints a picture of a stock that is struggling to find its footing after a significant decline. The double-top formation, breach of key moving averages, and reliance on temporary boosts from external factors like Warren Buffett’s investment all suggest that the stock’s bearish trend is far from over.
ULTA Beauty is no longer a beautyIt was in the back burner, but it moved fast below the flag.
It has lot more meat left , so posting it.
Next target 280
Worst case target 200
$ULTANASDAQ:ULTA shorter term based on 24hr boxes look to short to 403 ish. Reason for this being is we failed to claim the upper box where we closed slightly under. We may have a small gap up to grab liquidity take that as your chance to short all the way to 403 possible we hit that target in a week. If we go down to 403 look for buyers to step in as we already broke through that sell wall. if we hold well and open up good the next day long to 417ish. overall i think we go a retest 423 ish before making the dump to maybe 395.
ULTA Looking SPICY for an UP MOVE!ULTA is looking absolutely spicy for an up move! We're in a strong pivot zone (both internal and external) with increasing RVOL and high volatility. This is the recipe for a huge explosion. Just like I predicted NASDAQ:INTC 's explosive move before it happened earlier today! Now, we need to look for the continuation of increasing RVOL while the price stays in the pivot zone.
Key Points to Watch:
Strong Pivot Zone ✅
Increasing RVOL 📈
High Volatility ⚡
Get ready for a potential breakout! 💥
ULTAWill be great if it is a flat. Daily chart - price sits on DMA200. May likely move a bit lower, but wave proportions within this ABC are already ok. Not a rocket stock, but the price seems a bargain. Mind your risks and do your own analysis before deploying your valuable capital in any trade
Ultra UltaThinking about Ulta. Thinking it consolidates a few days in the green zone i hereby dub the "Buy Zone". Thinking could be a long play here maybe, you never know...
ULTA - Lotto call option for upcoming EarningsSince ULTA is very close to a weekly strong pivot i purchased this lotto call option expiring after next earnings. Not recommended you will probably lose all your money . But this stock has always been generous toward me... so why not! 👌🤘🏻🚀
$ULTA 400 + INCOMINGRsi is rising, building that consolidation once we get over 400 this thing is gone.
I would expect a move this week sometime if not next week. Def in my watchlist as well
5/30/24 - $ulta - +ve setup... but sephora risk mounting??5/30/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ULTA - this looks overdone for what should be decent results - given all the shoe co's crox, onon, birk, fl... beauty elf and even clothing names anf getting love (even lulu finding a much needed bounce - as i commented on sub $300)
at 15x PE and 5% fcf yield, the setup does look +ve.
what concerns me at the margin is this google trends and sephora (lvmh brand) looking to take massive incremental share. that's not good. while they're not perfect substitutes, they're pretty dang close. i'm tempted to buy some C's here to play the upside for a short-term re-trace on this massive down move from both the last results+... but idk if i could stomach a long term hold until i get resolution on the competition? does anyone who wears this stuff have a better point of view?
trends.google.com
ULTA : Took an entry for about 2.5% of the net capitalThe price is close to the low of a HTF channel and hence entered into a position targeting the high of the channel. The current position size is about 2.5% of the net capital and the expected move is of about 52%, depending on the current macro and micro economic conditions.
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If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
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Disclaimer: The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It's important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
What A BeautyI think Ulta bounces off the trendline here and heads back to the $462-$465 range to complete the Harmonic.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
ULTA ULTA - coming down to weekly demand zone and up trend line confluent. Additional it's extremely oversold. Play for a bounce to 420 here.
Ulta Beauty Drops 15% as CEO warns of lackluster 1st Qtr. DemandThe beauty industry is renowned for its resilience, but even giants like Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) are not immune to the shifting tides of consumer demand and market competition. Recently, Ulta Beauty's CEO David Kimbell sounded a cautionary note, signaling a slowdown in first-quarter demand and intensifying competition, which sent shockwaves through the market and reverberated across industry peers. As Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) braces for a challenging period ahead, analysts and investors alike are grappling with uncertainties about the company's future trajectory amidst a rapidly evolving landscape.
The Unraveling Story:
Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ), a stalwart in the beauty retail sector, experienced a significant setback as its shares plummeted by as much as 15% following CEO David Kimbell's sobering remarks during a fireside chat with J.P. Morgan analysts. Kimbell revealed that the company anticipates a moderation in total category growth, a stark departure from years of robust expansion. This unexpected deceleration in demand, coupled with heightened competition, has cast a shadow over Ulta Beauty's prospects and sent ripples of concern throughout the industry.
The Competitive Conundrum:
In the face of intensifying competition, Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) finds itself grappling with challenges across multiple fronts. CEO David Kimbell pointed out that the company has lost ground in prestige makeup and encountered difficulties in the haircare segment. The competitive landscape, characterized by aggressive marketing strategies and evolving consumer preferences, poses a formidable obstacle for Ulta Beauty and its peers. The ripple effects of this competitive pressure were felt by Ulta Beauty and industry players like elf Beauty, Coty, and Estee Lauder, whose shares witnessed notable declines in response to the unfolding developments.
Navigating Uncertain Waters:
Despite the prevailing uncertainties, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Ulta Beauty's resilience. William Blair analyst Dylan Carden emphasized that the decline in shares reflects more of an apprehension about the future rather than a concrete understanding of earnings downside. Ulta Beauty's reaffirmation of its comparable sales target for the year, coupled with its track record of resilience in the face of challenges, offers a glimmer of hope amidst the prevailing uncertainty. However, the company's ability to navigate the turbulent waters ahead will hinge on its capacity to adapt to changing market dynamics and fortify its competitive position in the industry.
Looking Ahead:
As Ulta Beauty charts its course forward, the road ahead appears fraught with challenges and opportunities alike. The company's ability to recalibrate its strategies, capitalize on emerging trends, and differentiate itself in an increasingly crowded market will be instrumental in shaping its trajectory in the coming quarters. While the specter of uncertainty looms large, Ulta Beauty remains steadfast in its commitment to driving sustainable growth and delivering value to its stakeholders.
Technical Outlook
Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) stock is trading below its 200, 100 & 50-day Moving Averages (MA) respectively with a nosediving Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 23 indicating a massive sell-off from traders amidst CEO's warning of lackluster first Quarter Demand
ULTA Profit Forecast Misses Estimates Amidst Rising Cost Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ), a prominent player in the beauty retail landscape, finds itself navigating choppy waters as its annual profit forecast falls short of Wall Street estimates. The announcement, made on Thursday, sent ripples through the market, with the company's shares declining by 4.5% in extended trading.
Elevated supply chain costs and increased promotional activities have taken a toll on Ulta Beauty's ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) margins, highlighting the challenges faced by retailers in the current economic climate. Despite the beauty retailer's efforts to stimulate sales through aggressive discounts, consumers, grappling with inflationary pressures, have shown restraint in spending on discretionary items like cosmetics and hair care products.
Compounding these challenges is the persistent issue of retail shrink, where inventory loss due to theft and breakage continues to impact margins. This multifaceted challenge underscores the complexities faced by retailers, with several companies flagging it as a significant obstacle to profitability.
Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) now anticipates its annual operating margin to range between 14.0% and 14.3%, a decline from the 15.0% reported in the previous year. Additionally, the company's annual adjusted earnings per share forecast falls below analysts' expectations, with the mid-point falling short of the average estimate.
However, despite the subdued profit outlook, Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) remains optimistic about its revenue prospects for fiscal 2024. The company forecasts revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $11.8 billion, slightly exceeding analysts' estimates.
In the fourth quarter ended Feb. 3, Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) reported a profit of $8.08 per share, surpassing expectations. Quarterly revenue also saw a healthy increase of about 10% year-on-year, outperforming analysts' projections.
While Ulta Beauty's ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) shares reached an intra-day record high before closing lower, reflecting investor optimism, the stock has shown resilience, surging approximately 15% in 2024 despite the challenges faced by the company.
In conclusion, Ulta Beauty's struggle to meet profit forecasts amidst rising costs and cautious consumer spending underscores the volatile nature of the retail landscape. As the company navigates these challenges, its ability to adapt to evolving market dynamics will be crucial in sustaining long-term growth and profitability.
