ULTA Beauty Stock Bubble Analysis 100% Americans Are BullishULTA Beauty Stock Bubble Analysis 100% Americans Bullish = Bearish
ULTA trade ideas
looking aug. 2018 to aug. 2019looking out at the chart from august to august you see that it was still overextended. seems like investors were expecting alot.
its extended on both the hour and month chart
Quick Analysis in my analysis of the chart.
i had been watching ULTA of and on over the past year. and it has done extremely well and in the last few months its been trading crazy over extended so a pull back would be expected if not neccessary for more investor to buy in.
$ULTA looking like a beauty into earnings. Having held the $315 level on multiple occasions one of which was the May selloff , its safe to assume that they bulls within the stock are in control. As earnings approach everything seems to be very positive, NYSE:EL had some great things to say about the company during their own earnings report and analysts are also bullish.
It is very possible the stock will move to new highs in the weeks to come.
$ULTA Selling could get very intensive post earnings. Bearish Ulta stock holds a lot of profit for longer term investors and the sell volume profile in the last week signals they wise investors are banking those profits and letting the madness ensue post earnings. Ulta has a history of volatility in the days following earnings and the chart indicates that the selling will continue, if the breakout level at approx $315 is broken, stop losses will trigger and anywhere from $300- $280 will be the next support.
$ULTA Ulta Beauty is starting to lose its good looks.ULTA needs a trip to the beauticians its chart is starting to show a few cracks and blemishes after a hard fought breakout. We expect this to go back and fill the gap created after earnings before continuing higher. Long term hold, but short term short.
ULTA ideaPotential area of pullback.
Wife told me to buy this below $100 - off course I did not listen... listen to your wife folks...
ULTAAnyone else think this is way over extended? Negative money flow and RSI divergence. No volume, yet price keeps going up, What is up with this loony market???
$ULTA is positive unless closes below $315$ULTA is positive unless closes below $315.
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Preparing for March 11 earnings week (ULTA)
- Earnings on Thurs after close
- Nearing its ATH at $322 (Nov 2018)
- Cramer is bullish
- 1 year chart uptrend is very good
- The question is if it can break the ATH or not
- What is different now than it was in Nov 2018?... Maybe the market is healthier overall
- It is trading above the VWAP and the SMA is in an uptrend
- I am bullish here and would think about doing a vertical spread at the money $305/$310. This would be a rather conservative strategy, in case there is a pullback at $322. I do not see the stock plummeting very far either, seeing that it's been growing so steadily in the last 1 year.
Short UltaTechnical: Series of impulsive rejections off $314.50 level. MACD rolling over w RSI bearish divergence on the daily chart. Risk/reward favors downside over upside. Implied vol skew on options contracts currently @ 4.5 delta put/call spread (very bearish).
Fundamental: Cosmetics retail is a highly cyclical industry. Historically, Q4 numbers come in hot on a comparative trending basis against prior quarters in a given calendar year. As a result, a sequential rate of change is a better comp stack.
Let's take a look at their historical EPS (calendarized):
EPS
Q4 2013: $1.10
Q4 2014: $1.36
Q4 2015: $1.68
Q4 2016: $2.24
Q4 2017: $3.38
Q4 2018: $3.55* (expected)
YoY Quarterly EPS Rate of Change
Q4 2014: 23.64%
Q4 2015: 25.53%
Q4 2016: 33.33%
Q4 2017: 50.89%
Q4 2018: 5.02%
The deceleration in EPS is evident, as the macro economic acceleration coming out of 2015/2016 is becoming increasingly difficult to comp, moving into the back half of 2019. In addition, retail sales as a whole were weak in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 on a sequential and trending rate of change, and I expect that the overall macro economic headwind will matriculate into the earnings report issued on Thursday evening. Looking ahead, as the US economy enters stagflation, I believe margin compression from higher input costs, firm wages, and decelerating productivity will weigh in on Ulta's forward guidance and EPS targets. I am short the stock with target exit of $252 per share.
Another $ULTA earnings, another drop in the stock.$ULTA is priced to perfection for its earnings announcement. Its stock has rebounded from the low $200s to the low $300s.
Time series fibonacci analysis says we are likely to see an inflection point in the stock this week. This coincides with $ULTA's earnings.
Let's see what happens to this stock tomorrow. I believe almost any positive upside surprise is already priced in, and the path of least resistance from these elevated price levels is down.
Zooming out to the monthly time frame, we also see the formation of a double top, deteriorating technicals (RSI, MACD, money flow).
I'll be watching the retail sales numbers that will be released soon closely for any indications as to which way this may go.
Limited upside and a lot of downside on this one!If you are a bull , I would stay away until after earnings, otherwise am seeing a convincing beat down if they miss.
