ULTA trade ideas
ULTA ready to bounceULTA at strong support on weekly chart. At ma. Wait for bullish bounce above 284.78 - buy.
ULTA Iron FlyPlaying the high IV here in Ulta.
Trade Setup:
- 1 ULTA Apr 21 260/275/275/290 Iron Fly @ $10.50
DTE: 42
Max Win: $1050
Max Loss: $450
Breakevens: $264.50 & $285.50
Trade Management: 25% profit in the trade or ~$263. I will take off either side if it comes down to being worthless to have on as risk, closer to expiration. I'm willing to take this as full loser as well, given it has quite the range today.
Green is profit zone; black vertical bar is expiration.
CONTINUATION BREAKOUT LOOKING GOODONE OF MY LONG TIME HOLDINGS THAT BROKE OUT YESTERDAY ON STRONG VOLUME AND FOLLOWING THROUGH TODAY, STRONG FUNDAMENTALS BACKING THE TECHNICAL B/O
ULTA due for a correctionULTA is clearly overbought at this point in time. Now is certainly not the time to go long on this equity.
Key Points:
1. Overly bullish sentiment
2. RSI on weekly is around 85 - probably the highest in it's history.
3. RSI on daily has been hovering dangerously around 80 for quite some time.
4. There is no clear RSI divergence from price at this time.
5. Jaws of the Aroons are well open on most time frames.
Issues :
Playing with RSIs are fraught with risk. They can be very deceptive. However the statistical probability is for a corrective fall in price. How much? Impossible to say. Shorting a bull market is far more risky than going long at a pullback in bull market. If one was adopting an acceptable high risk strategy, a stop-loss would have to be pretty wide. I speculate that the correction could be back to around 220, over the next 15 weeks. This could be in two stages. The first correction may be minor.
Overall though, ULTA is 'designed' for a long . I'd be looking to go long at the next major pullback and have set up alerts to catch it e.g. if price collides with 100 or 200EMA.
Long ULTA Short DK YTD 185%ULTA is still rising, albeit on lower volume in recent time. The beauty store provider is still generating strong earnings growth with a 3 Year E.P.S Growth Rate of 25% and an E.P.S % Chg (Last Qtr) of 39%. This is accompanied by a 3-Year Sales Growth Rate of 21% and a Sales % Chg (Last Qtr) of 24%. This shows that an increase in sales is driving E.P.S growth, which is an important factor. Whilst ULTA has experienced lower than average trading volumes since the beginning of June 2016 the relatively small free float of 61 million shares means that the volume is still sufficient to drive the price higher. Trading at all-time-highs doesn't seem to bad when it's doing so on a P/E of 48, a modest premium for a growth stock of this calibre.
Delek U S Holdings Inc (DK) is a US oil refiner, operating largely in southern US states and is doing so at a loss. The stock is down 51% YTD, sales are declining (3-Year Sales Growth Rate -15%, Sales % Chg (Last Qtr) -4%) and earnings are too (3 Year E.P.S Growth Rate -46% and E.P.S % Chg (Last Qtr) -378%). The latest quarterly earnings report was headlined by a slightly improving cash balance and an announcement of cash proceeds from tax refunds and business interruption proceeds, which does not demonstrate improving business fundamentals. Improving the cash balance is important to Delek, considering their debt to equity is around 76% at the most recent report.
With a P/E ratio of 80 and the stock trading around $12, there is certainly plenty of downside remaining.
$ULTA - Weekly R3??? SHORT THIS WITH TWO HANDS - BUT, buy time.. Rejected at R3 and 1.272 and way overbought. TOAST
