ULTA trade ideas
What A BeautyI think Ulta bounces off the trendline here and heads back to the $462-$465 range to complete the Harmonic.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
ULTA ULTA - coming down to weekly demand zone and up trend line confluent. Additional it's extremely oversold. Play for a bounce to 420 here.
Ulta Beauty Drops 15% as CEO warns of lackluster 1st Qtr. DemandThe beauty industry is renowned for its resilience, but even giants like Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) are not immune to the shifting tides of consumer demand and market competition. Recently, Ulta Beauty's CEO David Kimbell sounded a cautionary note, signaling a slowdown in first-quarter demand and intensifying competition, which sent shockwaves through the market and reverberated across industry peers. As Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) braces for a challenging period ahead, analysts and investors alike are grappling with uncertainties about the company's future trajectory amidst a rapidly evolving landscape.
The Unraveling Story:
Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ), a stalwart in the beauty retail sector, experienced a significant setback as its shares plummeted by as much as 15% following CEO David Kimbell's sobering remarks during a fireside chat with J.P. Morgan analysts. Kimbell revealed that the company anticipates a moderation in total category growth, a stark departure from years of robust expansion. This unexpected deceleration in demand, coupled with heightened competition, has cast a shadow over Ulta Beauty's prospects and sent ripples of concern throughout the industry.
The Competitive Conundrum:
In the face of intensifying competition, Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) finds itself grappling with challenges across multiple fronts. CEO David Kimbell pointed out that the company has lost ground in prestige makeup and encountered difficulties in the haircare segment. The competitive landscape, characterized by aggressive marketing strategies and evolving consumer preferences, poses a formidable obstacle for Ulta Beauty and its peers. The ripple effects of this competitive pressure were felt by Ulta Beauty and industry players like elf Beauty, Coty, and Estee Lauder, whose shares witnessed notable declines in response to the unfolding developments.
Navigating Uncertain Waters:
Despite the prevailing uncertainties, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Ulta Beauty's resilience. William Blair analyst Dylan Carden emphasized that the decline in shares reflects more of an apprehension about the future rather than a concrete understanding of earnings downside. Ulta Beauty's reaffirmation of its comparable sales target for the year, coupled with its track record of resilience in the face of challenges, offers a glimmer of hope amidst the prevailing uncertainty. However, the company's ability to navigate the turbulent waters ahead will hinge on its capacity to adapt to changing market dynamics and fortify its competitive position in the industry.
Looking Ahead:
As Ulta Beauty charts its course forward, the road ahead appears fraught with challenges and opportunities alike. The company's ability to recalibrate its strategies, capitalize on emerging trends, and differentiate itself in an increasingly crowded market will be instrumental in shaping its trajectory in the coming quarters. While the specter of uncertainty looms large, Ulta Beauty remains steadfast in its commitment to driving sustainable growth and delivering value to its stakeholders.
Technical Outlook
Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) stock is trading below its 200, 100 & 50-day Moving Averages (MA) respectively with a nosediving Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 23 indicating a massive sell-off from traders amidst CEO's warning of lackluster first Quarter Demand
ULTA Profit Forecast Misses Estimates Amidst Rising Cost Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ), a prominent player in the beauty retail landscape, finds itself navigating choppy waters as its annual profit forecast falls short of Wall Street estimates. The announcement, made on Thursday, sent ripples through the market, with the company's shares declining by 4.5% in extended trading.
Elevated supply chain costs and increased promotional activities have taken a toll on Ulta Beauty's ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) margins, highlighting the challenges faced by retailers in the current economic climate. Despite the beauty retailer's efforts to stimulate sales through aggressive discounts, consumers, grappling with inflationary pressures, have shown restraint in spending on discretionary items like cosmetics and hair care products.
Compounding these challenges is the persistent issue of retail shrink, where inventory loss due to theft and breakage continues to impact margins. This multifaceted challenge underscores the complexities faced by retailers, with several companies flagging it as a significant obstacle to profitability.
Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) now anticipates its annual operating margin to range between 14.0% and 14.3%, a decline from the 15.0% reported in the previous year. Additionally, the company's annual adjusted earnings per share forecast falls below analysts' expectations, with the mid-point falling short of the average estimate.
However, despite the subdued profit outlook, Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) remains optimistic about its revenue prospects for fiscal 2024. The company forecasts revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $11.8 billion, slightly exceeding analysts' estimates.
In the fourth quarter ended Feb. 3, Ulta Beauty ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) reported a profit of $8.08 per share, surpassing expectations. Quarterly revenue also saw a healthy increase of about 10% year-on-year, outperforming analysts' projections.
While Ulta Beauty's ( NASDAQ:ULTA ) shares reached an intra-day record high before closing lower, reflecting investor optimism, the stock has shown resilience, surging approximately 15% in 2024 despite the challenges faced by the company.
In conclusion, Ulta Beauty's struggle to meet profit forecasts amidst rising costs and cautious consumer spending underscores the volatile nature of the retail landscape. As the company navigates these challenges, its ability to adapt to evolving market dynamics will be crucial in sustaining long-term growth and profitability.
ULTA Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top on ULTA:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ULTA Beauty prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-26,
for a premium of approximately $20.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ULTA, Buy opportunity Uptrend
After a pullback, it's passed of last top and it could be a good buying opportunity by setting a SL at a good place and targeting at about 550.
ULTA- On trading and sustaining above 510 will go for 530 & 551ULTA- On trading and sustaining above 510 will go for 530 and 551
Support below 485
It will be box breakout on 4hr chart once it trades above 510
ULTA - Improving MomentumULTA has been consolidating after some big gains. I suspect it is about ready to break out. Target 508 area.
$ULTA ready to rip!NASDAQ:ULTA coming back from the dead 🤣 I mean coming above 50EMA and 200EMA forming a base.
ULTA Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ULTA`s Double Top Bearish Chart Pattern here:
or the previous earnings signal:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ULTA Beauty prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 455usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-25,
for a premium of approximately $14.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
#ULTA#ULTA - conditional prediction
- if the market goes below 420, there is a high chance of a post-earnings gap.
$ULTA in equilibriumULTA after its recent selloff is currently trading in equilibrium. expecting price to move either to supply or demand and then plan for a trade.
ULTA SHORT Following the Gap on the results, where after the results the price dropped to 400, it's been on the retreat since backto 458. This is also 38% on the Fib, and looks to have rejected the level so expect to see this head down. Have captured the supply and demand levels and expect to see 400 retested sometime soon and then heading to 342......
ULTA - pullback or reversal?NASDAQ:ULTA gapped down after lowering guidance in their recent earnings call. The current price completes the proportional gap down and brings it to the 0.382 of the uptrend from the covid low, as well as an area with strong volume support. I'm looking for an entry at $393, TP at $460, and SL at $358.
Note that May 2022 was the last time that earnings guidance shifted sentiment and trend, and that a fib time zone from that period closely aligns with peaks and troughs. I'll look to draw the same once we have established forward sentiment from the current earnings guidance.
make or break time for ULTA ⛄below trend support/495.15 we will see a lot more downside, bounce here and break of 515.64 and more upside should follow
technically its in bullish trend for past year, so short should be careful shorting here..
no trigger no trade.. boost and follow for more 👉
ULTA Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the ULTA Beauty Options options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $480 strike price Puts with
2023-9-15 expiration date for about
$28.90 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Ulta ($ULTA) ShortNASDAQ:ULTA 6/16 450P traded 5000x on Friday 5/12... ULTA 200 day moving average = 465. A break below that support level will cause a bearish trend with the potential to retreat to 435. The 23.6% fib retracement is ~ 450. There is not much support below 450.
ULTA Beauty Double TopThis looks like a shortable double top on ULTA Beauty.
Stop loss: 565usd
Take Profit: 515usd
200 Moving Average: 441usd
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ULTA - LONG Well back in for another try with LABU here in aftermarket , had to pay a bit of a premium to get a fill but still pretty near the close and I actually daytraded it in a seperate account earlier near the open and just sold that so I suppose that made up for the difference I paid here in the aftermarket for the swing account . The fill price I ended up paying was 535.20... was out hiking during the close...worth it .
Market/ General update :
Bulls still failed to get us out ( and keep us out) of this Trading range on QQQ but overall looks like they are winning , slightly . Will be watching closely monday , Looks like ELF was on Santa's sleigh again though , quite the mover that one , everything else held more or less ....
Have a happy weekend ~
ULTA has Overextended Strength SHORTULTA a women's beauty focused company has benefitted from the end of the Covid Era,
Earnings reports have been rock solid for sure.
I think ULTA is overdue for a correction.
On the 4H Chart, supply and demand zones are per the LuxAlgo indicator. Price touched
and retested demand several times last summer and early fall. It is now touching and testing
the supply zone above the POC line of the long term volume profile. It is in the overvalued
region of the long term anchored VWAP bands.
The Wycoff buying /selling oscillator is still positive but with a decreasing amplitude.
I see ULTA as setting up for a short sell entry. The entry could be now but a better
entry would wait for price to get under the POC line at HKEX:528 and the volume oscillator
turn to negative with the histogram below the zero line showing bearish volume momentum.
My preferred position is a put option at a strike of HKEX:530 expiring on 5/19/23.
