WBA to long term trend line part 2Price target from descending wedge and long term price trend line around 8 - 10 dollar range.
WBA trade ideas
WOW Walgreens! Why you DON'T Baghold!NASDAQ:WBA is a techable moment and I had to make a video today. I checked my watchlist of current and recent trades exited and saw that Walgreens was down -25% overnight! Horrible earnings is the "reason" but really the stock has been in an unabated downtrend for months.
I tried to take a long off the 2009 low back in January but my rules had me GET OUT in April. I did not like taking a loss at the time (no one does) but it's moments like this in trading and investing that remind you in a good way (rather than painful way) why you follow your exit rules!
6/27/24 - $wba - Textbook ex. of why avoid leveraged stonks6/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:WBA
Textbook ex. of why avoid leveraged stonks
Not dunking on the stock or holders here. and not writing this for the record of benefit of myself (like all the other posts).
anything today that's got extreme leverage w/ sticky high interest rates is probably going to be in the second or third tier of what gets bot when liquidity moves on this tape.
in this example 13 bn of equity (as of y day) and 35 bn+ of net debt is 50 bn in enterprise value. so even with the stock down 20% and will invariably chop around (probably tends lower)... it's not really a bargain unfortunately. so you take 20% off of 13 bn and let's round up say 3 bn ... you're at 10 bn of equity and still 35 bn of net debt and back to 45 bn of enterprise value (10+35). 10% off.
i have loved the names where the opposite mathematical paradigm occurs. NASDAQ:BLDE has been one example i've traded close to 10 mm market cap in the last 12 months (simply bc they have so much net cash). NYSE:YOU is another one - though my thesis is changing to be less bullish on the long term - and will need to update thinking here after *finally* signing up and test driving the service - but more on this in another note.
just be careful w/ the highly leveraged stuff unless 1) cash flow is not lumpy (it is in this case), 2) the consumer is probably not front and center of the story (it is again here - tough macro factor), 3) results haven't been a problem and the stock isn't broken (again strike three).
the best bet when you get caught bag holding stuff like this is typically just find a place to make peace and get rid of it. go to cash or go to SPX or QQQ for some time. it's also hard to do just that on a down 20% day at the open. maybe we get a retrace sure. but again.
this is expensive and 20% doesn't tell the whole story.
hope this helps someone avoid the mistake in another co at some pt in the future.
V
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WBA before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 17.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.41.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Walgreens Boots Alliance: Turning Point 🔄Walgreens Boots Alliance shares have now dipped into our Target Zone between $19.29 and $16.53. Here we expect the end of the blue wave (II) and thus a reversal. Traders could open long positions within the range, with stops about 1% below the lower edge.
Long WBATook WBA long at $19.40 with a stop below $19.15 on a closing basis based off the hourly chart.
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on WBA:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 21usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Sees Mixed Results in Q2 Fiscal 2024Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ), a global leader in pharmacy-led health and well-being, has released its fiscal 2024 second-quarter results, showcasing both challenges and successes in a rapidly evolving market landscape.
The financial report reveals a complex picture, with the company experiencing a substantial loss per share of $6.85 compared to earnings per share of $0.81 in the same period last year. This significant disparity stems primarily from a $5.8 billion non-cash impairment charge related to VillageMD goodwill. Adjusted earnings per share, however, increased modestly by 3.4 percent to $1.20, reflecting improved profitability in the U.S. Healthcare segment and a lower adjusted effective tax rate.
Despite the loss, second-quarter sales saw a notable uptick of 6.3 percent year-over-year to $37.1 billion, with growth recorded across all segments. This increase, coupled with the achievement of positive adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. Healthcare division for the first time, underscores the company's resilience and ability to navigate challenging market conditions.
Looking ahead, Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ) has adjusted its fiscal 2024 guidance, narrowing the adjusted EPS range to $3.20 to $3.35. This revision reflects a challenging retail environment in the U.S., as well as factors such as the early wind-down of the sale-leaseback program and lower earnings due to Cencora share sales. However, the company remains committed to executing its strategic initiatives and achieving $1 billion in cost savings this year.
CEO Tim Wentworth expressed optimism about the future despite the current headwinds, emphasizing the importance of focusing on customer engagement and value creation. He highlighted the company's progress in achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. Healthcare segment and its ongoing efforts to streamline operations and drive growth.
Walgreens Boots Alliance's financial report provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the retail pharmacy industry and the company's strategic priorities in response to evolving market trends. As it continues to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities, stakeholders will be closely monitoring its performance and strategic execution in the quarters ahead.
Technical Outlook
NASDAQ:WBA is exhibiting a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting potential upward momentum in the near term. With a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 50. NASDAQ:WBA is poised for a further surge in the near term.
Long term trendline for WBALong term trendline for WBA may serve as support for a swing trade technical bounce. Price is around 17.5. This offers a good R to R with a short stop loss. Previous touches of the line have had returns of +77%. I dont know if that will happen this time, but a few dollars 20 to 24 maybe resistance. Earnings are this week and I would not be surprised if price sells off and goes to the trendline.
Let's dive into the details of WBA's 4h chart from Oct-2023Oct-Dec 2023 Consolidation
From October to December 2023, WBA formed a regression channel on the 4h timeframe, which was a period of consolidation. The channel was marked by a support line drawn on the 1d timeframe, which acted as a resistance line on the 4h chart.
Dec 2023 Breakout
On December 2023, WBA broke out of the regression channel, reaching a high of 27 USD. This breakout was supported by the resistance line drawn on the 1d timeframe, which acted as a strong resistance line on the 4h chart.
Jan-Mar 2024 Consolidation
From January to March 2024, WBA formed a similar regression channel on the 4h timeframe. This channel was marked by a support line drawn on the 1d timeframe, which acted as a resistance line on the 4h chart.
Potential Breakout or Breakdown
Now, the similar regression channel formed from January to March 2024 is in a consolidation phase. We need to wait and watch to see if WBA will breakout or breakdown. If it breaks out, it could potentially reach new highs, while a breakdown could lead to a correction.
Conclusion
WBA's 4h chart from Oct-2023 on the NASDAQ shows a clear pattern of consolidation and breakout. The similar regression channel formed from Jan till Mar 2024 is in a consolidation phase, which could lead to a potential breakout or breakdown. Stay tuned and keep an eye on WBA's chart to see how the market reacts! 📈💡
Box Store Giants: Macro Fib SchematicsWalmart, Costco, Target, CVS, Home Depot, and Walgreens are the largest box store giants in the market. Proctor and Gamble along with Nike are in here because they are both also mega corporations and since P&G has so many products in these stores. Nike is also a staple in these stores but Proctor and Gamble especially belongs here.
These Fibonacci Schematics are extremely clean and probably the best looking structure I have ever seen. This is an excellent example of market mechanics working through Fib Schematics.
If we were to talk about what we see here 2/27/24 then we see....
- Walmart at a couple resistances.
- P&G launching off massive Fib Cluster support.
- Costco testing the waters above and getting ready to jump into next levels.
- Home Depot testing its midpoint from its high with a massive front run from the Thick Orange Fib Line after the actual rejection at the high. This means we are set to launch through the high at 420.
- Target barely rejected the high (FRONTRUN) and found reasonable support on the same supports it FRONTRAN. Target is poised to go crazy high.
- Nike looks like it can do anything.
- CVS also looks like it can do anything but looks more bearish tbh.
Scalp The LeapWalgreens will pop to take profit line due to IWM and small caps going up.
It focuses on its health and wellness, pharmacy and seasonal flus to get revenue.
This will pop...
WBA long!!! I see a higher high/low and if im right I have this going to 29 end of FEB or beginning or March.
I would call 29$ as the target. The april Calls are .14 ATM....;
I will buy some just for shits......
Bull Put Walgreens #WBA
Introduction:
Walgreens is one of the largest drugstore chains in the world, headquartered in the United States. The company has recorded steady growth in recent years, thanks to its market-leading position and its international expansion strategy.
The trade:
I opened a bull put selling trade. This trade consists of selling a put with a strike price below the market price of the shares, and buying a put with a strike price even lower.
I structured the trade as follows:
Selling a put with a strike price of $22.50 and expiration date February 16, 2024.
Buying a put with a strike price of $20 and expiration date February 16, 2024. T
Profit and loss:
The profit of the trade is realized if the price of Walgreens shares is above $22.50 at the expiration of the options.
The maximum loss without a stop loss is equal to the margin required by the broker and is realized if the price of Walgreens shares is below $22.50 at the expiration of the options.
Stop loss:
To limit risk, I set a stop loss at 3 times the premium of the options, which, with a 75% profitable trading history, is adequate.
Conclusion:
The annual ROI of the trade is 203%. The trade itself can be closed before expiration if prices move favorably, allowing for closure with a reduced fraction of the premium but with less time in order for the annual ROI to be higher.
Walgreens: Quarterly Bullish Piercing Line at PCZ of Bullish BatThere is a Bullish Piercing Line at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat that is visible on the Quarterly time frame. We also have MACD and RSI Bullish Divergence to go along with it as well as Increasing Volume. This could be the start of something big for the price action and I speculate that shares of Walgreens could rise up to around $58 over the coming months.
Navigating Walgreens' Strategic Pivot: A Deep Dive into $WBA
In a bold move to fortify its financial position, Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ) recently announced a significant dividend cut, marking the end of a remarkable 47-year streak of dividend growth. Despite the unsettling news, the company's first-quarter results have exceeded expectations, showcasing resilience in a challenging consumer environment.
Understanding the Numbers:
NASDAQ:WBA 's first-quarter sales witnessed a commendable 10% increase to $36.7 billion, with substantial growth in U.S. retail pharmacy and international segments. Adjusted operating income, however, experienced a 33% decline, primarily attributed to softer U.S. retail market trends. CEO Tim Wentworth emphasized the importance of evaluating strategic options to enhance long-term shareholder value while addressing immediate concerns through cost-right-sizing and increased cash flow.
Dividend Cut: End of an Era or a Prudent Move?
The decision to slash the dividend by nearly 50% marks a pivotal moment in Walgreens' financial history. With a rich legacy of 91 years of consecutive dividend payments and a 47-year streak of annual increases, the company's move underscores a necessary shift in response to changing market dynamics. While the decision may disappoint income-seeking investors, it is seen as a wise move to bolster cash reserves for future growth and balance sheet strength.
Financial Snapshot and Market Response:
NASDAQ:WBA 's stock lost 30% of its value in the previous year, contrasting sharply with the Dow Jones Industrial Average's nearly 14% rise. The dividend cut, while a bitter pill for income investors, is expected to improve the company's financial profile. Analysts posit that the move will position Walgreens for a potential rebound, considering its undervalued status and the focus on sustaining a decent dividend yield. The stock's affordability, coupled with the recent dip, may make it an appealing prospect for those seeking a turnaround investment opportunity.
Evaluating Growth Challenges:
Walgreens' growth trajectory has encountered headwinds, evident in the deceleration of its dividend growth rate over recent years. While the company maintained a consistent payout in 2023, the growth rate slowed, reflecting the evolving dynamics of the healthcare and retail landscape. The decision to rein in the dividend growth, albeit difficult, aligns with a strategic shift towards bolstering financial resilience and ensuring sustained growth.
Investment Outlook:
In the wake of the dividend cut, NASDAQ:WBA 's stock presents an intriguing proposition for investors seeking a balance between potential capital appreciation and a decent dividend yield. The company's commitment to exploring strategic options and adapting to market challenges underscores a proactive approach to navigate the evolving landscape.
Conclusion:
Walgreens' recent strategic decisions, including a substantial dividend cut, reflect a commitment to ensuring long-term sustainability in the face of a challenging business environment. As the company recalibrates its financial strategy. While the path to recovery may pose challenges, the combination of an affordable entry point and the potential for enhanced financial strength positions NASDAQ:WBA as a good prospect for investors with a strategic, long-term or short term perspective.
Wallgreens Long for 2024This morning I received a volatility alert on $NASDAQ:WBA. The stock had earnings today and the resulting price action was bearish down to a significant potential support level.
The Trade
The Weekly the Ichimoku 9-period (red line) shows that short term 50% level as it goes flat providing a Weekly entry point. The risk is that price makes another major low. In my trading toolbox I call this setup a "TS Recap." I discuss these during my Weekly Livestreams here on Tradingview. I was able to enter my position earlier this morning and price has responded favorably by the time of writing (fill before you shill).
The Context
Since November 30, 2023 NASDAQ:WBA has had a bullish trend off the recent major low. I call these type of moves "Impulse Moves" because they represent significant buying over a short period of time that have the potential to be the first move of a full trend reversal. I look to take them as trades (or long term positions entries) when they perform a pullback to their 50% Retracement. This is what it looks like on the Daily timeframe:
If we go up to the Monthly we see that NASDAQ:WBA is doing this price action at historic, 2008 and 2000 lows. This is a significant point and worth the risk for a long with a time horizon to span 2024.
All set to triple your moneyHeavy volume recently and bullish weekly candle. It could retest 20-22. As long as it stays above 20, I am expecting this could hit 60 in couple of years.
Iron Condor Strategy for WBA EarningsWith the upcoming earnings announcement for Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) scheduled for January 4, 2024, traders are gearing up for potential market fluctuations. Earnings reports often bring increased volatility, presenting both opportunities and risks for investors. One options strategy that traders may consider to navigate this uncertainty is the Iron Condor.
The Iron Condor Setup
OPTIONS Expiration Date: January 5, 2024
Strike Prices:
Sell Put: 20.5
Buy Put: 20
Sell Call: 31
Buy Call: 31.5
Why Iron Condor?
An Iron Condor is a neutral strategy that benefits from low volatility and a range-bound stock price. By simultaneously selling an out-of-the-money put and call, and buying further out-of-the-money puts and calls, traders aim to profit from the stock's price staying within a specific range.
The Strike Prices
Sell Put (20.5): This provides a buffer below the current market price, giving room for a slight downward movement.
Buy Put (20): This acts as insurance in case the stock experiences a more significant decline.
Sell Call (31): This sets an upper limit for potential gains, allowing for some upside but capping profits.
Buy Call (31.5): Acts as a safety net, protecting against an unexpected bullish surge.
Risk and Reward
The maximum loss and maximum gain are predefined with this strategy. Traders stand to gain the net premium received when entering the trade, while the maximum loss is limited to the width of the spread minus the premium received.
Key Considerations
Volatility Crush: Post-earnings, there's often a "volatility crush" as implied volatility drops. This can benefit Iron Condor traders.
Monitor and Adjust: Keep a close eye on the position, especially as the earnings announcement approaches. Be prepared to adjust or close the position if necessary.
Position Sizing: Consider the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and overall portfolio strategy.
Final Thoughts
While an Iron Condor can be an effective strategy, it's crucial to understand the associated risks and carefully manage the position. Earnings events can be unpredictable, and even the most well-thought-out strategies may not guarantee success. As with any options strategy, thorough research and risk management are key.
This post is not financial advice. Before implementing any options strategy, it's advisable to consult with a financial professional to ensure it aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
WBA (walgreens)Longterm investment idea.. a possible 100% stock move from 20$ lows
Falling wedge Here at the bottom of a 25yr range. Price is oversold on every time frame..
Stop loss 18.00
Target 45$
Price on long term demand zonePrice is consolidating at the demand zone from 1998 and is clearly oversold. It won't take much more time to start climbing up. I already have a long position but still good time to jump in. My TP is around the 30 level but is probably too ambitious, I will take profit on the way up. There is a resistance at 26, be careful with that one.
WBA - Bullish SetupMarket sentiment is currently towards the downside. However WBA looks good for a trade towards 24.5 level. Beginning of December Expiry *options*
Remember, the hardest trades are the good trades. For me thats when I jump in on an opportunity before the rest do. I dont look for too many confirmations to get in. I think too many confirmations kill profits. However this method of execution requires high discipline and most importantly, risk management. I am jumping on OTM calls to have my max risk at check, in case the trade doesnt materialize to what I expect it to.
Another important note: Your viewpoint on the market has to be based on what it is showing/giving you, not what you expect from it. Dont be too stubborn on your take profit levels, and be firm on your hard stops. Be comfortable with the risk you are taking. Its nothing but a game of probabilities.
#options
