GERMANY40CFD trade ideas
SHORT DAX40/GER30 AT CURRENT MARKETWe are shorting DAX at 18646.8 with a stop loss at 18741
target at 18546
Once the price hit below 18600, trail stop loss to BE level.
DE30 DAX Technical AnalysisWhen the DAX 8-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue within the Tobo formation formation. It is evaluated that the index price can target the 19788 level by passing the 18994 level in price movements above the 18793 level, but it is evaluated that it can retreat to the 17077 level by breaking the 18189 level in price movements below the 18793 level.
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: Neutral. Won’t be running into any more traps again. Both sides have reasonable arguments but bulls closed last week at the highs, so bulls are slightly favored. Best pattern currently is probably the big bull wedge we are in. Bulls want a retest of the ath 18990 and bears below 18000. Bullish above 18750 and bearish below 18200, neutral in between.
Quote from last week:
comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks.
comment : Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week.
current market cycle: big trading range
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls did not do much on Monday and Tuesday but enough to make many bears take profits early and stall the market and bears were not having that, so they gave up. Bulls are favored if they get above 18750 but I think it’s very close to 50/50 if we make a new ath. Market is undecided to the max and we see many traps on any time frame. We are above the daily ema and the bull trend line from the wedge, so bulls are slightly favored.
Invalidation is below 18200.
bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and do they want to fight it at 18700? I don’t think so. Thu + Fr was strong enough that we can expect a retest of the ath next week and there I expect stronger selling to happen again. Since we did not print 19000 so far, it’s an obvious magnet and market’s rarely touch those big round numbers and reverse from there. We will likely overshoot some before big bears come around. Make no mistake, this buying here is purely absolutely atrocious from any reasonable valuation level given many German macro indicators but that stuff will only destroy your account so let’s not go there. Market is overvalued and we will likely see 17000 again this year.
Invalidation is above 18750.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18301 and now we are at 18699. Bears fumbled it on Wednesday and then quickly gave up. Bearish momentum was there on Tuesday but they barely made a new low. Anyhow, bad outlook.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Cut those shorts on Thursday and will try again around 19000 if bears come around.
chart update: Added a bull wedge again and made the bear gap smaller.
15.9.24With a huge week to commence this week with Feds on Wedensday looking to slash interest rates with large players leaning twoards a 25 bps rate cut, markets may start off slow in the begning of the week before then. There will also be Core reatil sales data to be released on Tuesday which my influence the decision of the rate cuts.
US30: Price this week traded past remaining SSL from previous weeks and seemed to
taken lows from previous week before moving back up on Wednesday. Price is beginning to trade higher so I will like to see price trade into previous week high and towards 41604.04 once more
Ger40: After taking previous weeks lows in Tuedays session , Wednesday began the mid week reversal trading towards BSL from September. Id also like to see price trade past previous weeks highs but it has a way to go if it was to reach 18998.6 or previous month highs at 18972.2. I will ike to see how prace does at 18757.6
DE40 | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Weekly Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | Daily Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.786 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
GER401. Daily Swing + Int. Bias Bullish
2. 4h Swing Bullish
3. 15m Swing Bullish + Int. Counter Bearish
So, the continuation of a counter move will grab SSLQ and the thoughts for long entries will be from the second +OB around 18.635 - 18.645 area.
Before and In case that we have BOS (18.670), the next target will be 15m Swing High.
Long positions are HP When all TFs will be aligned.
Shorts only if the counter move continues, targeting the 2nd +OB.
The Sweet Spot Supply ZoneUsing the TrendCloud System can help you focus on finding that sweet spot entry for all of your supply and demand zones.
You will also see confirmation entry signals as the trade plays out.
You can use these signals to increase your position size and maximize your profits.
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DAX 40 Reacts Positively to ECB's Rate Cut DecisionDAX 40 Reacts Positively to ECB's Rate Cut Decision
Yesterday, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council cut the refinancing rate, as expected, from 4.25% to 3.65%.
The ECB also stated that monetary policy would remain sufficiently restrictive "for as long as necessary" to ensure inflation returns to its medium-term target of 2%.
Financial markets responded with:
→ A strengthening of the euro. EUR/USD rose by more than 0.5% after the rate cut announcement.
→ A rise in European stock market indices.
For example, Germany's DAX 40 index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) received a bullish boost, which supports more optimistic conclusions in today's technical analysis:
→ Price movement fits within the ascending channel shown in blue.
→ The thickened line highlights that the median of the channel repeatedly acted as support before early August. As indicated by the arrow, it regained this role after the sharp decline on 5 August.
→ The linear regression channel (shown in purple) points to upward momentum.
Investors may feel optimistic, expecting that this autumn demand forces could lift the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) towards the upper boundary of the channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SHORT DAX40 at the current market price Team we are shorting the at the current price of 18556, you can use stop loss at 18613 or 18684
Target 1 at 18511.2
target 2 at 18422
target 3 at 18383
Please note: once the price hit the first target at 18511.1 take 50-60% volume
trail your stop loss to 18613. There will be a consolidated period between 18480-18555, so please be aware
"DAX Index Rises Ahead of ECB Meeting"In the U.S., the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in August, while the annual rise was 2.5%, aligning with forecasts. Following the drop in inflation, the likelihood of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point rate cut next week has risen to 85%. After this data release, market risk appetite increased, leading to intensified buying activity in the DAX index.
Today, there is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
Technically, on the upside if the price holds above the 18,500 resistance, buying could push the index first toward the 18,700 resistance and then to 18,900. if the 18,500 level is broken to the downside, a pullback could extend first to the 18,285 support and then to 18.075.
WOULD IT BE A PERFECT TIME TO SHORT DAX AT 18585Team, please review the chart for shorting DAX
would have to stop loss at 18685 with entry short at 18585,
target will depend on the chart as per illustrated.
German index, what to expect next? In my previous analysis, I projected a reversal in GER40, expecting a corrective move toward the daily Fair Value Gap (DFVG) in the 18,000-18,200 range. Over the past week, the price has nearly reached this target. Looking ahead, I see two potential scenarios:
1. **Further Decline:** The price may continue to move lower, targeting the 1-hour FVG, which is also visible on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes.
2. **Rebalance and Retest:** A minor drop to the Previous Day's Low (PDL) could lead to a rebound, with a likely rebalancing toward the premium levels early next week (Monday-Thursday). This would include a retest of the Buy-to-Sell (BTS) zone and potentially the 4-hour bearish Order Block (OB), followed by more aggressive selling down to the 18,000-18,200 range.
Once this zone is reached, I'll be monitoring for a potential bounce, which I will detail in my next update.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis Expects DAX to Turn Higher SoonShort Term Elliott Wave view on DAX suggests that the Index is correcting cycle from 8.5.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher. The pullback on 8.5.2024 towards 17024.6 ended wave ((4)). The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)) with internal subdivision as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 17505.23 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 17233.07. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 17666.82 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 17439.87. Wave ((v)) higher ended at 18920.1 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Dips in wave 2 ended at 17669.64.
Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 17921.99 and wave ((ii)) ended at 17827.08. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 18344.22 and wave ((iv)) ended at 18240.17. Wave ((v)) higher ended at 18495.28 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 18349.98. Final leg wave 5 ended at 18990.78 which completed wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave W ended at 18414.13 and wave X ended at 18607.79. Expect wave Y to extend lower to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low in 7 swing towards 17659.1 – 18018.6 area before it turns higher. As far as pivot at 17024.62 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
DAX SHORTThe DAX, Germany's leading stock market index, is experiencing a downturn due to several factors. Global economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and fears of higher interest rates are weighing on investor sentiment. Additionally, weaker-than-expected corporate earnings reports, especially from key sectors like automotive and manufacturing, have further contributed to the decline. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy supply issues in Europe, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are also playing a significant role. As investor confidence falters, the DAX continues to face pressure, signaling potential challenges ahead for the German economy and its broader market outlook.
Anyway, now SHORT.
DAX - BEARISH CORRECTION BEFORE CPITechnical Analysis DAX
The price remains within a bearish zone as long as it trades below 18,520, with potential targets at 18,290 and, below that, 18,180. Ahead of the inflation data, the trend is expected to remain bearish. However, during the release of inflation data, a reversal to a bullish direction is possible due to potential rate cuts.
Stabilization above 18,520 would support a rise towards 18,640 and 18,780.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 18520
Resistance Levels: 18640, 18780, 18970
Support Levels: 18345, 18260, 18180
Expected Range: 18540 - 18260
Trend: Bearish as long as the price remains below 18520.
The DAX index is correcting or changing the trend?Considering its dynamic resistance in the range of 18380, after breaking this area, we can expect the index to rise to the range of 18500 and 18605. Otherwise, after breaking its current support in the one-hour time frame in the 18190 range After the failure of this area, it can be expected to continue its descent to the range of 18071 and in case of strength to the bottom of the channel, i.e. the range of 17968
Bullish Setup For German DAXThis is a short-term, bullish setup for the German benchmark index DAX. Shortly before the publication of the US CPI, the international equity markets appear to be forming a bottom, from which we would like to profit with this trade.
My idea to trade for the next daysI expect a low-volume sideways phase followed by a sell-off and then the price explosion on Thursday
Dax for 18 K - Inverted Cup and Handle Dax is in a downtrend after rejection from 19K .
Price can be seen to be in the midst of forming and Inverted Cup and Handle structure, with resistance offered by Fan 2.
The Inverted Cup and Handle, if formed, suggests continuation of the downtrend.
The likely target is at 18 K. Here , structure can act as resistance. It is confluent to the Fibonacci .50 level.
The RSI printing in the Sell Zone.
The Bias at present is short.
Riding the Bull: My Probability-Based Approach to Trading GER30The German DAX (GER30) is showing promising signs for potential upside movement, supported by several key fundamental factors:
1. European Central Bank's accommodative stance
2. Improving economic indicators in the Eurozone
3. Strong performance of German export-oriented companies
4. Increasing investor confidence in the European market recovery
To capitalize on this bullish outlook, I'm employing a probability-based approach to enter long positions on GER30.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
12M:
3D:
1H:
