GER40 3RR | 1HR TF BEARISH SETUPFOREXCOM:GER40 looks bearish on all time frames, making a triple top on the daily and in a downtrend movement on shorter time frames, bell curve levels support the idea, let's hope for the best.
GERMANY40CFD trade ideas
-Trade L- Tue 2024 09 23 - DE40 6pm H3 - Momentum|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Stats ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - NO
** 09:30 VOLD ?NA?, AD ?NA?, Senti -35, Agio St +0.05, Lg +0.02, - Range
** 09:45 VOLD ?NA?, AD ?NA?, Senti -14, Agio St +0.05, Lg +0.05, - Range
** 16:15 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
Stats Week:
** DE PMI: - lower,
** EU PMI: - lower,
** US PMI: - lower,
** Mon Morning rule - Break on Monday by H3 hammer,
** Tue returned to W1 trend - UP,
Stats Month:
** Sep turn - pending,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Trade Taken ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H3
** Time:
* 06pm,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* Momentum Long,
* Mon Morning rule,
* Tue returned to W1 trend - UP
* Senti -47,
** Mom Width:
* 1 candle - strong,
** Mom Type:
* 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* last Mom Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1
DAX/GER HURRY FOR LONG Team, found DAX good entry LONG at 18883
stop loss at 18842
target at 18921
18953
Once it breaks 18905, bring stop loss to B
Germany 40: Trend BreakoutGermany 40 index is observed to undergo a trend breakout. If price is able to breach this marked level and hold a close above it, very likely we will keep seeing upside momentum.
Trade options for 25.9.24Tomorrow there are three reasonable trade options (2 shorts and 1 long) derived from support & resistance areas. For details see text boxes in the chart. I preferable look for option 1 or 3. Option 2 comes only into picture if development of option 1 fails, without any new alltime high tomorrw.
Notes:
green and red boxes dervied from last movement volume areas, Pivot levels and Fib levels.
yellow boxes are derived from higher TF MAs
Buys on German40 4 hour timeframe I’ve been tracking German 40 for while and after the sell we had I believe we are about to see new highs on German 40🇩🇪. I decided to go with simple analysis here.I’m identifying a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN AFTER A BULLCROSS PATTERN FROM 23 September 2024. I believe this bullish engulfing pattern that formed at 8am will hold us upwards .
Good luck .
Maswazi Gamede
DAX/GER retest yesterday high - prepare to shortTeam, with the DAX, we need to wait for the confirmation before we enter the short. We are waiting for the trend to be retested. And Confirm if it is a FAKE breakout.
We consider entering the short position at 18887-18883. STOP LOSS at 18953. We are updating pricing as well. Less confuse
Target 1 - 18832
Target 2 - 18790-18784
Target 3 - 18746-18723
Trade Options for 25.9.2024Tomorrow there are three reasonable trade options derived from support & resistance areas. For details see text boxes in the chart. I preferable look for option 1 and 4.
Notes:
green and red boxes dervied from last movement volume areas, Pivot levels and Fib levels.
yellow boxes are derived from higher TF MAs.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40
Germany 40 continues its bullish momentum, currently in an impulsive phase. The price is 18,753, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 18,617. Support is seen at 18,207, while resistance lies at 19,026. The RSI is at 55, indicating mild bullish momentum but also bearish divergence.
UK 100
The UK 100 remains neutral, in a consolidation phase that has turned weaker with the price breaking below a rising trendline. The price is 8,246, hovering near the VWAP (20) of 8,269. Support is positioned at 8,154, with resistance at 8,384. The RSI is at 47, reflecting balanced momentum but is marked by 3 declining peaks, suggestive of further weakness.
Wall Street
Wall Street continues its bullish trend, still in an impulsive phase. The price is at 42,000, well above the VWAP (20) of 41,107. Support is at 40,007, with resistance at 42,207. An RSI of 67 indicates robust bullish momentum but without the conviction of an overbought reading.
Brent Crude
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend, now experiencing a corrective phase. The price is 73.92, just above the VWAP (20) of 72.92. Support is located at 69.26, with resistance at 76.57. With an RSI of 48, the market is still in its bearish regime of a 30-60 range but is indicating a potential for reversal.
Gold
Gold continues its bullish run, currently in an impulsive phase at a record high. The price is 2,614, above the VWAP (20) of 2,542. Support is at 2,449, and resistance is at 2,635. The RSI of 70 reflects strong bullish momentum, and overbought conditions.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend, still in an impulsive phase. The price is 1.1098, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 1.1091. Support is at 1.1000, with resistance at 1.1174. The RSI is at 51, reflecting moderate bullish momentum.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD continues its bullish trend, staying in an impulsive phase into new 2024 highs. The price is 1.3319, sitting comfortably above the VWAP (20) of 1.3164. Support is at 1.3009, while resistance is at 1.3319, the current price level. The RSI of 61 signals solid bullish momentum but bearish divergence has appeared.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains in a bearish trend, now in a corrective phase with a move over a down trendline. The price is 143.71, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 143.03. Support is set at 139.63, with resistance at 146.42. An RSI of 49 is a big swing from bearish to neutral momentum, implying a new trend or perhaps a longer period of consolidation.
GER40: Remains bullish amid global uncertaintyEuropean stock markets started the week with mixed results, influenced by the recent interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and China's monetary policies. The German DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 posted modest gains of 0.1%, while the French CAC 40 fell by 0.2%. The Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, a larger-than-expected cut, generated global optimism as it anticipated a boost to economic activity.
The People's Bank of China also contributed to this favorable environment by reducing its 14-day repo rate, which eased domestic monetary conditions, boosting growth. These moves, along with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle, reflect pressures on monetary authorities in Europe, with key figures such as Mário Centeno suggesting that the ECB could act sooner than expected.
In the European economic context, preliminary PMIs for September will be crucial in assessing the health of the region. Weaker than expected data would increase the likelihood of further expansionary measures by the ECB. On the corporate front, Commerzbank shares fell 4.3% after the German government confirmed that it will maintain its 12% stake, cooling speculation about a possible merger with UniCredit.
On the other hand, oil prices rose in the face of growing tension in the Middle East, which has generated concerns about supply. Both Brent and WTI registered increases of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks on energy markets.
On the technical front, the German DAX remains in a long-term uptrend. After its sharp plunge in its first week of August and subsequent sharp corrections to the upside, the index has a checkpoint (POC) around 18,491 points, with a high at 19,050.81 and key support at 18,267.81 points. The RSI at 56.99% suggests that there is still room for further upside momentum. According to Fibonacci retracements, 76.4% is slightly below the current highs, indicating that we will have to watch if the index breaks this level.
In conclusion, European markets are trading in an environment conditioned by global monetary policies and international tensions, as investors assess both the impact of rate cuts and volatility in oil prices.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Will DE30 DAX Continue to Rise?When the DAX 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue on the trend line. As long as the index price does not break down from the 18491 level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 18679 level can exceed the 19055 level and target the 19737 level.
DAX continues to trade around the all-time highs.DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 19050. Our short term bias remains positive. 50 4hour EMA is at 18663. A Morning Doji Star formation has been posted at the low.
We look to Buy at 18735 (stop at 18655)
Our profit targets will be 18935 and 18995
RR 2,5
Resistance: 18821 / 18900 / 19049
Support: 18800 / 18704 / 18600
Risk Disclaimer
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Ger40(dax) sellGer40 you can get selling opportunities this week, monthly candle also may close bearish. Selling make more sense . Weekly close bearish probability is 65% you can combine it with your set-up in lower timeframes.
GER30We looking for selling opportunities as the market is now on a reversal of the previous bullish trend that it ended resulting in selling opportunities|1H TIMEFRAME
22.9.24After the interest rates, price is looking ot continue stronger. Keys measures of inflation and apperances from Fed officials will be watched this week to show the health of the economy.
Price on both pairs have created new highs after its rally but could be tested if this weeks data fails to support expectations
Us30: Price in an overall bullish market had broken highs on Monday and continued to make newer highs after the rate cut on Wednesday. After a strong bullish week absolutely smashing past previous months highs, I'd like to see price trade past or atleast to Thursdays highs of 42178.06. However, I will like to see if price falls to 41851.82
Ger40: Price had traded higher in to new highs after reaching Tuesday supply zone and continuing higher later in the traded day on Wednesday. Price overall reached old highs after its overall retracement and created new highs. Price seems to look like it has lost steam as it couldnt close past previosu week and month highs, so will ike to see if and what price will do if it falls to 18703.8. If it were to continue bullish I will be targeting 19050.1
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another ath and targets above are 19100/19200.
Quote from last week:
comment: Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week.
comment : Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade.
current market cycle: big trading range
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls are slightly favored since we are inside nested bull wedges or a bigger broad bull channel, depending on how you want to draw it. Does it matter? No. We are also in a trading range inside the given key levels and that does not change how you trade the current patterns either. Bulls made a lower high last week and a higher high. As long as the lower high holds, bulls are favored for more upside. Should you buy 18720? It’s not unreasonable but Friday was quad witching and we closed at the low. I’d rather wait for bulls to come around on Monday before buying. We could touch the bull trend line around 18500/18600 before reversing but I do think we will retest at least 18900. My most insane upside target currently is 20900 but until we have a weekly close above 19400, it’s a waste of time thinking more than 2 minutes about it. Trade patterns that are valid and until they are clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears rejected 19000 by 300 points again and the big questions is, will they get follow through selling on Monday and can they push below the bull trend line out of the bull wedge? I highly doubt that. It’s possible but unlikely. Market will probably spent more time inside the wedge before we break out by going sideways or below, once it’s contracted enough. Anything above 19100 would show great weakness by the bears and a possible giving up for 19300 or higher. On the weekly chart the highest weekly close was 18906 and bears need to keep it that way. Any weekly close above 19000 opens the door for higher prices.
Invalidation is above 19100.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18699 and now we are at 18720. High was 19044 and that outlook could not have been more perfect. Nailed the long above 18750 and the rejection above 19000. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Removed the bear gap and added the insane potential measured move to 20900. Don’t bet on that.
Shorts into the potential buysHello traders,
A potential ''simple'' play is shaping up on GER40.
It doesn't mean when PA tapped into a new ATH and sells of, its meant to be the top.
However, PA made a huge inpulse and right now it's forming its larger correction before the potential next leg to the upside.
PA is forming an expanding right now.
- Weekly bullish pinbar close (still bullish but positioned well)
- Daily retraced quite well (engulfing --> evening star formation)
- 4H is clear (impulsive move)
-1H --> entry plan: looking for a clear 3-touch continuation into the previous ''marked'' lows that has been broken.
Targeting the first point of inflection at minimum with a potential to the value area.
I've used the fibonacci as a guidance, never as a confluence factor.
However, it's healthy to give a .50 pullback after such rally
Germany 30 SellI Sell the Germany 30. Sl and Tp on the chart.
Now i just wait and see!
Note: I see this selling for days.
DAX 2HThe price has reached a resistance zone and has shown a good reaction. Around this time, you can enter the Sell transaction and earn a good profit.
