DAX40 stress: Volkswagen in retreat shakes Germany
The DAX 40, which fell by 0.97 %, reflects the tension in various sectors of the German economy, not just the automotive sector. In addition to Volkswagen, other companies in the technology and manufacturing sectors are also under pressure. The TecDAX, which groups the main technology firms, fell by 1.50 %, affected by the fall of Infineon Technologies, whose value fell by 4.68 % due to the slowdown in demand for semiconductors and growing global competition.
The consumer goods and manufacturing sector also showed signs of weakness, with the MDAX losing 1.05 %, reflecting the vulnerability of mid-sized companies that depend on the European domestic market. Companies such as Daimler Truck Holding AG, linked to transport and logistics, plunged 3.47%, hit by high costs and economic uncertainty.The combination of labor disputes, retrenchment strategies and a challenging economic environment is hitting multiple key sectors of the DAX, highlighting a complicated outlook for the German stock market and its investors.
In the technical analysis, DAX40 (Ticker AT: GER40), shows the control point (POC) at 18,459.84 points and an RSI in the middle zone with 52.59%. Meanwhile, Volkswagen AG (Ticker: VOW3:XETR) is trending sideways after an August without significant movement. The selling pressure could continue in the coming weeks, until the financial situation of major technology and automotive firms such as Volkswagen stabilizes, marking a critical period for the German stock market and its investors. It would not be unusual to see the index price retest the mid-channel zone if it pierces the POC price this week.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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GERMANY40CFD trade ideas
GER30I would like to see Ger20 pull back up a little bit before it sells off. Sniper entries or nothing, remember to use proper risk management, entries will be taken after a pull back. Not now, you can use a pending order. Lets Download Success .
DAX to continue in the upward move?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 18973.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 18886.
We look to Buy at 18885 (stop at 18765)
Our profit targets will be 19185 and 19265
Resistance: 18973 / 19100 / 19200
Support: 18900 / 18770 / 18700
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Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
NOTE: These charts use the ‘Pro Trading Tools’ available on the SpreadEx trading platform. To use them, log in to your SpreadEx Financials Account and click ‘Technical’ from the menu on any chart.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has shifted into a bullish trend, entering an impulsive phase as it continues to rally into fresh record highs. The price has climbed to 18,871, easily above the updated VWAP of 18,397. Support has moved up to 17,630, while resistance is higher at 19,165. The RSI has increased to 67, indicating growing bullish momentum.
UK 100 remains in a neutral trend, continuing its consolidation phase but with the short term rally gathering pace. The price has edged up to 8,359, still above the VWAP of 8,308. Support remains steady at 8,193, with resistance slightly adjusted to 8,424. The RSI holds at 56, reflecting stable momentum.
Wall Street has transitioned into a bullish trend, now in an impulsive phase as it challenges previous record highs. The price has risen to 41,489, easily surpassing the VWAP of 40,689. Support has been lifted to 39,388, with resistance now at 41,989. The RSI has increased to 67, confirming stronger bullish momentum.
Brent Crude continues its overall bearish trend, although momentum has faded over the past few periods, it is now in an impulsive phase again. The price has decreased to 76.80, below the VWAP of 78.52. Support has been adjusted to 75.25, while resistance is higher at 81.78, reflecting a wider trading range. The RSI has dropped to 43, signalling continued bearish momentum but with some slowing.
Gold remains firmly in a bullish trend, in an impulsive phase as it sits near a record high. The price is slightly lower at 2,499, hovering around the VWAP of 2,495. Support has been adjusted to 2,438, with resistance at 2,545. The RSI has moderated to 55, indicating slightly cooling bullish momentum.
EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend but has shifted to a corrective phase after 3 large down days on the trot. The price has settled at 1.1065, matching the VWAP. Support is now at 1.0900, with resistance slightly higher at 1.1235. The RSI has eased to 53, reflecting the beginning of a potential consolidation or pullback within the broader uptrend.
GBP/USD continues its strong bullish trend in an impulsive phase. The price has dipped in the last 2 days to 1.3135, but remains well above the VWAP of 1.3031. Support has increased to 1.2711, while resistance is now at 1.3352. The RSI stands at 61, indicating persistent bullish momentum.
USD/JPY remains in a bearish trend, transitioning into a corrective phase. The price has risen slightly to 146.78, now above the VWAP of 146.12. Support is adjusted to 143.11, with resistance at 149.13. The RSI has moved up to 48, suggesting the bearish pressure is moderating but not yet reversed.
SHORT DAX40/GER40 at 18954Team I am shorting the DAX at 18954, stop loss at 18975 (weekly high)
Target 1 at 18911.30,
target 2 18869.20
and Target 3 at 18830.30,
Once it hit the first target, take 50% profit and trail your stop loss to your short entry position. and target 2.
Does the DAX index break its important resistance? Due to the important resistance in the 18950 range After breaking this zone, expect to climb up to the range of 19038 and 19119 otherwise, after the failure of its current support in the range of 18575, we can expect a drop to the range of 18668 and in case of strength to the support range of 18605
DAX(GER30), nuke is coming?I explained the fundamental part in my EURUSD post. Check it out here:
Now, let's talk about the technical part:
At the London opening, we saw significant manipulation downward with a liquidity sweep from the previous day's low (PDL) and other swings. Now, I would love to see an aggressive movement upwards toward the all-time high (ATH), where I'll be looking for a short setup. However, if the price closes on the 1-4h time frame with a big fat candle, I won't touch the GER40 (DAX) for a while because there won't be any targets ("sky is the limit") to get liquidity from.
There's one possible scenario: a move into premium after the first market structure (MS) shift today, followed by a second shift (break of structure, BoS). Bearish order flow will be confirmed, with the final target being the 4h fair value gap (FVG).
DE30 DAX Technical AnalysisWhen the DAX 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue in an upward trend. As long as the index price does not break down the 18292 support level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 18701 level can exceed the 18971 level and target the 20021 level.
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
4th consecutive bull bar closing on it’s high. Low volume but who cares. Can only be bullish on this price action. Futures are close to the ath while xetra already made a new ath. 19000 on xetra will most likely be hit next week. Will bears come around there to trap late bulls? Maybe but I would not bet on that. R:R (risk:reward) is on the bear side here but it’s too early to short. Could even go up to 19200 before turning.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend.
comment : Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. Will reverse soon.
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls closed the month at the highs while making a new ath. It’s a buy signal but the move is so climactic without any pullbacks, that most bulls will probably get out on a decent bear bar. The first pullback will most likely fail and it will probably be a decent buying opportunity but buying 18900 right now is bad any way you look at it. What upside do you expect? Strong breakout above 19200? Where do you put your stop? The whole move up happened above the 1h 20ema. So if bears finally break it and trade consecutive bear bars below, bulls might start thinking about taking profits.
Invalidation is below 18750.
bear case: As mentioned above, 1h ema held for 3 weeks now. Only objective for the bears is to stop the market from making higher highs and breaking below the 1h ema. 19000 is the best area for them to achieve that. If they don’t come around on Monday, we might es well see 19200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 19050.
outlook last week:
short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18633 and now we are at 18906. Neutral was wrong again since bears touched the 1h ema once last week and that was on Monday. 1h on xetra and on futures you’d have to take the 2h 20ema.
short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Nope. Not yet.
chart update: Nothing. Bull wedge is still valid.
GER 30Weekly predictionFX:GER30
The DAX index has returned to the upper limit of the range. Here we will wait for the development of the price movement behavior.
$DAX Weekly Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, We are looking at price action with three bullish soldiers. This indicates a strong move towards the bullish direction. Market structure also indicates a light move-up before a retest takes place.
On the daily, we may have tapped into ERL now expecting a quick sell to previous highs for a possible continuation to the upside
4H TF looks bland and consolidation-like... After Monday plays out we may see some intent with it.
01.09.24As we have seen price has been reaching new all time highs due since August sell of. What is pricing the charts is the announcement of cutting interest rates for the Economy.
What will be in focus this new coming month and week is Friday NFP prior to Wednesday JOLTs job opening and Thursdays Inital Jobless claims.
US30: US30 has jumped past Julys all time highs at 41414.72 and Monday highs at 41447.86. I'd like to see price pushing past 41604.04 this week.
GER40: Price seemed to sail smoothly to break previous all time highs at 18916.9 and has seemed to hault at the top of that range. I will like to see price push past 18972.2 during this week
Dax - 3 White Soldiers If we look at the Dax for early August, 2 bullish overlapping weekly candlestick formations are apparent
1. Morningstar - Firstly price HAMMERS's a low at 17,000 , wicking the 3rd Standard Deviation Channel. We then have an extended range bullish candle move near 2 standard deviations , to complete the Morningstar.
2. Three White Soldiers - this last bullish candle and the following 2 , together are 3 white candles with successive HH and HL. The second candle in this formation actually gaps the first with the weekly open, adding impetus to the bullish move.
The Dax is at ATH with a price of 18948.60. It is still within the 2nd Standard Deviation Channel, and room to move up. The weekly RSI is printing 62. It reflects a buy signal, and it is a long way from oversold.
The Daily Chart shows price has entered the Supply Zone with strong conviction. This is the 4th test of this Zone. A higher probability exists for selling pressure to have abated by now.
IF we look at the VSA, Volume in the uptrend has been Average . There is no blow off. Furthermore, the last daily candle was below average. The Bulls with little volume, were able to move price easily up through this zone ( no selling pressure).
With 9 bullish daily candlesticks in a row, there has to be some retracement. It is likely to be small, probably some form of multiple Doji, narrow range candles.
Client Sentiment has 84% of traders net short. They are likely backing this retracement. A contrarian view suggests the index will rise.
Technically , there is conviction for the Dax to rise
GER30GER30 has been going up for a while now, I am interested seeing it drop, but before it drops, I will be happy to see a small retracement up, thats where we will be executing trades, sniper entry or nothing, Lets Download Succes s
GET READY TO SHORT DAX/GER30 OR 40Good evening to everyone,
We have not seen a beautiful pricing like this for a while.
We found good opportunity once the price hit 18933 to short, with stop loss at 18977
Target 1 18889
Target 2 - 18819
Target 3 - 18761
Please note, once the price hit first target, take some partial profit, trail stop loss to 18937 then continue to focus on second target and so on.. any strong trend pull back then get out.
CRT + Liquidity Sweep on the DAXLet's make Money!!!
Trade responsibly and apply proper risk management. Happy Weekend
Short GER40price marking a bearsih divergence and break their last HL
Entry Point :18882
Stoploss : 18936
TP1 18828
TP2 18774
TP3 18720
TP4 18666
DAX H4 | Strong bullish momentumDAX (GER30) is looking to make a bullish break above a swing-high resistance and could potentially rise higher from here.
Buy entry is at 18,855.31 (wait for the 1-hour candle to close above this level for confirmation).
Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 19,008.06 which is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
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