$DAX is consolidating at the top XETR:DAX is so far pulling back from 19000 it touched. A break below 18000 needs to be confirmed for us to be certain that reversal is fully triggered
GERMANY40CFD trade ideas
GER40 Confirmed a Double Top Pattern or Something SimilarGER40 Confirmed a Double Top Pattern or Something Similar
The price broke out from the neckline of the pattern by confirming
in this way a bigger bearish wave.
It is still too early and DXY can make a small correction before it moves down more.
However it looks really good also with the current data.
If GER40 will manage to develop below the neckline of the pattern it
will move down even more as shown in the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on DAX Looking for Support SoonShort Term Elliott Wave in DAX suggests the Index is correcting cycle from 4.19.2024 low. The rally from 4.19.2024 low ended wave 1 at 18892.92. Wave 2 pullback is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (a) ended at 18515.84 and wave (b) ended at 18855.05. Wave (c) lower ended at 18394.43 which completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Wave ((x)) unfolded as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 18697.09 and wave (b) ended at 18365.53. Wave (c) higher ended at 18784.65 which completed wave ((x)) in higher degree.
The Index has resumed lower in wave ((y)). Down from wave ((x)), wave (w) ended at 18359.42 and wave (x) rally ended at 18652.90. Wave (y) lower is now in progress to complete wave ((y)) of 2 in higher degree. The Index has reached the extreme area from wave 1 peak. This area of support is at 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)), which comes at 17981 – 18287.2. From this area, the Index should turn and resume higher or at minimum rally in 3 waves.
PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS DAX Professional Analysis of DAX Price Chart
The chart provides a historical perspective of the DAX index in EUR from 1980 to 2024, incorporating key technical analysis tools such as Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, trend channels, and volume profiles. Here’s an in-depth professional analysis of the chart:
Historical Context and Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend:
The DAX index has exhibited a consistent long-term upward trend, marked by significant bullish movements punctuated by notable corrections.
Key historical peaks and troughs are clearly depicted, with substantial growth observed post-2003 and during recent years up to 2024.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels:
Key Levels:
Important Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from significant highs and lows. These include levels such as 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786, which serve as crucial support and resistance zones.
Extension levels such as 1.618, 2.618, and 3.618 are used to project future price targets.
Current Position:
As of June 2024, the DAX index is trading around 18,265.68, nearing significant Fibonacci extension targets that suggest potential further upward movement.
Channel Analysis
Upward Channels:
The chart features multiple ascending channels indicating long-term bullish trends.
The DAX index has generally oscillated within these channels, finding support at the lower boundaries and encountering resistance at the upper boundaries.
Channel Boundaries:
Lower Boundary: Historically important support levels crucial for maintaining the bullish trend.
Upper Boundary: Potential resistance levels that could act as significant profit-taking zones.
Volume Profile Analysis
Volume Profile:
The volume profile on the right side of the chart provides insight into the traded volume at different price levels, highlighting areas of high activity.
Notable volume nodes indicate key levels of support and resistance where significant buying and selling have occurred.
Volume Trends:
Increased volume typically coincides with major price movements, indicating strong market interest and potential trend continuation or reversal points.
Future Projections
Bullish Projections:
Primary Targets:
Based on Fibonacci extensions, key future price targets include:
1.618 level at approximately 14,963.22
2.618 level at approximately 22,840.88
3.618 level at approximately 30,718.54
4.236 level at approximately 35,586.93
These targets suggest potential significant gains if the current trend continues and market conditions remain favorable.
Potential Correction Zones:
Intermediate Support Levels:
Possible pullbacks or corrections might find support at previous resistance levels turned into support, such as the 10,094.83 area.
Key retracement levels to monitor include 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements from recent highs.
Conclusion
Overall Outlook:
The long-term outlook for the DAX index remains bullish, supported by historical trends and technical analysis.
Investors should monitor key Fibonacci levels and trend channel boundaries for potential entry and exit points.
Risk Management:
It is essential to consider potential market volatility and external economic factors that could impact the DAX index.
Implementing risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying investments, is recommended to mitigate potential losses.
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the historical and projected price movements of the DAX index, utilizing technical analysis tools. Investors and traders can use this information to make informed decisions in the market.
GER30 WEEKLY ANALYSISHello, traders here is a setup of GER30 as you can see the price has been bullish for the past weeks now and it has created a bearish flag pattern that signals price reversal. As you can see the price has been respecting the trendlines of the bearish flag pattern and now the price has shown a strong rejection on the upper trendline so for me I will wait for the price to break the previous support and turn it to resistance then I will look for selling opportunities.
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled-back as expected and closed mostly where they opened the us session. Dax showed strong weakness again with a reversal to new lows. Tomorrow another uber bullish day at least for sp500 and nasdaq is expected, since bulls want to close this week at the highs, creating another big buy signal going into next week. Nasdaq closing the week above 20000 would be something.
Commodities continued with their down trends. Oil confirmed the reversal at the upper bear channel and Gold also sold off for 30 points but found support at the 2320 area again. More sideways movement expected here.
dax
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Every day, same story, bulls try to reverse it and bears just relentlessly selling every rip. Makes you wonder how many bulls will continue to do, before they give up. It’s fitting, that we almost exactly closed where the big bull trend line from January and the lower expanding triangle trend line crossed. Here it’s big decision time for the next impulse. Bears are in their 4th red week and still have not dropped below the big bull trend week from early May. Something you do not see that much on a chart.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18700
bull case: Absolutely nothing for the bulls today. They had their try yesterday and fumbled the ball again big time. Bears just crushed them right from EU open to close 350 points lower. They only thing I have for the bulls is the big bull trend line we are at. If they can not stay above it, this bull trend is finally over. So it’s do or die for bulls over the next days. If they can produce buying pressure again, it would be fitting that this week closes as a red doji right under 18477ish.
Invalidation is below 18200.
bear case: Bears crushed the bulls again today. They had an amazing setup to break above the expanding triangle and go for the highs again but I think this market is done with the bullishness and we have seen the last of 18000, once we drop below again. More probable is that this market moves sideways for many more weeks between 18000 - 19000 before a catalyst turns everyone and their dog bearish again. Bears need to drop below 18200 with force.
Invalidation is above 18660.
short term: I would not long anything until bulls trade back above the 1h ema again but shorting down here is suicide as well, unless bears just melt through 18200. Most likely outcome tomorrow is sideways for dax between 18240 - 18450.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just short anywhere and go away. Pure weakness since Globex and EU open just sold everything. The open price was the high of the eu session, to the tick. Happens handful of times a year.
BUY DAX now and targer 18469DAX is suffering due to falling EUR but I´m expecting a stron pullback towads 18500. You can enter now at the current market price 18265. Set conditional SL, if any 30M closes below the SL zone, cutloss your trade. Wish you good luck.
Hindsight German Dax 13 JunMy Breakdown of 13 June 2024 German Dax. 5 minute is Better. 0700-088 Judas Swing above Yesterdays Close . Bearish Breaker Set up with Bearish FVG. 0850 Algo Does the business.
Targets using Standard deviations of the 0800- 0830 Opening Range. Draw on liquidity is the Yesterdays Longs who were in Profit. Thanks to ICT and Trader Tom .
Is DAX showing something interesting for the bulls?#DAX EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
DAX seems to be showing some positive signs for the bulls, however, we cannot get comfortable with that idea yet until we see a clear breakout.
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Heading into pullback resistance, could it reverse?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,700.48
1st Support: 18,517.05
1st Resistance: 18,808.45
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Bulls printed a big bullish bar closing at it’s high today, right above the daily ema. Today was bullish enough to expect another leg up to at least 18700/18800.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18800
bull case: Globex made the low of the day and bulls actually stayed below 18500 but the CPI print lifted everything up, so they got their spike to 18670. Bulls want at least to touch the upper bear trend line around 18750 tomorrow. 1h 20ema should be support.
Invalidation is below 18550.
bear case: Bears kept it below 18500 which was decent but CPI made them give up. I do think they won’t try to sell this until we get to the upper bear trend line and depending on how strong we move up there, they might not step in until 18800.
Invalidation is above 18700.
short term: If we stay above 18600, it’s max bullishness, until bears get below the 1h 20ema. Below 18500 it get’s bearish again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bull trend since Globex. Not a single 1h bar close below the 1h 20ema.
Exhausted?We've reached a new high at the end of the past week. This week the market seems to be waiting, taking breath. This may mean that at the moment there is no immediate buying interest. An upcoming profit taking may lead to a sharp drop. After such a sharp rise it is not unusual that some profit taking of short term oriented market participants will take place.
Bearish drop?DAX (DE40) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially drop to the pullback support level.
Pivot: 18,396.65
1st Support: 18,225
1st Resistance: 18,531.90
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Looking at the 1h chart, its a broad bear channel with lower highs and lower lows but the lows are 66 points Friday to Monday and 84 points from Monday to Tuesday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18600
bull case: Bulls are struggling to keep the market above the 1h 20ema but they make bears cover at lower lows. I do not have any opinion on tomorrows direction but if bulls interpret US CPI and FOMC as bullish, I can’t see dax staying down here. Bulls want to trade to the upper bear channel line before CPI and close the gap to today’s opening at 18545. R:R is on the bull side below 18400 since I don’t see bears starting to accelerate this selling unless we get a catalyst.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears keep on selling around 18500 and covering on new lows. Unless we get a bigger catalyst, dax won’t move much. Above 18000 everything is bullish and that’s why bears cover at new lows, they are scalping. Bears hope for some hot US CPI numbers and get the bigger second leg down to 1800 and lower.
Invalidation is above 18600.
short term: Bullish for gap close 18545 and I will be flat going into the news releases. So it has to happen early tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Bear trend from the open and we had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 15m chart.
callyesterday we bought Us100 today let's add Ger30 . then my weekly target is about to be reached i will be off for the rest of the week. and there is Fed meeting coming this week so let's stay away from Fundamentals but on ger40 i see an inverse head and shoulder
GER40 the trend is still Bullish**Monthly Chart**
Last month candle dropped lower after creating a record high around 18568.8 level. This drop was due to a large selloff around the record high. However, this month the price continued higher and created a new record high just shy of 19000 level which indicates continues of the bullish long-term directional bias.
**Weekly Chart**
Last two weeks candles closed as dojis which shows a loss of momentum around the high. It will require a large liquidity to push the price higher. Therefore, any retracement or correction will encourage buyers to continue the move.
**Daily Chart**
There are two scenarios on the daily chart, GER40 price might continue higher without retracements and bush higher before changing the trend or the price will have a deeper retracement and then bush higher and grap the liquidity that formed above the new record high. Either way, I am only interested in buying the retracement. The direction is still bullish and there is no indication yet to move lower.
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Bears managed to print a lower low below 18400 but bulls bought it as expected. The recent bear channel is broken and we are in a new bull channel. Trading range price action and you should only buy pull-backs and fade new highs or lows. US session closed it right at Globex high.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18600
bull case: Bulls kept the bullish gap on my daily chart alive and well. They are moving up to 18600 again, where I expect more sellers than buyers. If bulls manage to break above, we will get 18700 next. They are also trading above the 15m and 1h ema, so they are in full control here.
In my weekly post from yesterday I was in favor of the bulls and I hope you profited from it.
Invalidation is below 18383.
bear case: Bears tried again with a lower low but not enough bears are willing to short new lows and that’s why market is in balance and we move up and down. Bears want to keep this below 18600 or risk stronger leg to 18700. 18585 is the close of last week, which i expect will be hit.
Invalidation is above 18700ish.
short term: Bulls are moving this up again. If they can get it above 18600, I favor 18700 next. If 18600 is resistance, we will probably see 18450 or lower again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long the double bottom bar 28 + 37 on a stop one tick above bar 37, was good for 70 points. Bar 54 + 55 were also strong enough bars to consider new longs, if you covered before.
Weekly Technical Analysis 10/06/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
----------------------------------------------------------
Analysis
Germany 40 remains inside a tight sideways consolidation of its broader bullish trend, with the price decreasing to 18,435, now below the VWAP of 18,600. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,379 and 18,820, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 45, indicating a further moderation in upside momentum compared to the previous report.
UK 100 remains in the consolidation phase of a bullish trend, with the price decreasing towards the June lows, and still below the VWAP of 8,284. Support has adjusted to 8,134, while resistance has increased to 8,434. The RSI has decreased to 42, reflecting a significant weakening in momentum compared to the previous report.
Wall Street has made no major upside or downside progress in the past 3 months - remaining in a neutral consolidation phase, with the price recently decreasing to 38,712, now below the VWAP of 38,925. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 37,893 and 39,958, respectively. The RSI has slightly decreased to 45, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 79.64 and probing the April lows and 75.00, below the VWAP of 81.27. Support has adjusted lower to 77.24, while resistance has increased to 85.30. The RSI has decreased to 41, indicating a strengthening of bearish momentum compared to the previous report.
Gold is trading sideways in a neutral consolidation since topping in mid-April, with the price recently sharply falling to 2,291, now below the previous VWAP of 2,352. Support has adjusted higher to 2,272, while resistance has decreased to 2,432. The RSI has decreased to 41 alongside a big bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart, indicating new bearish momentum.
EUR/USD remains broadly trendless with the price more recently decreasing to 1.0749, now below the VWAP of 1.0846 - and indicating a possible new phase of weakness. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0768, while resistance has increased to 1.0923. The RSI has decreased to 39, indicating a significant increase in bearish pressure compared to the previous report.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2713, now around the VWAP of 1.2738. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2671, and resistance has decreased to 1.2805. The RSI has decreased to 51, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend - although it has still not overcome the late April peak - and has just reentered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing slightly to 157.03, now above the previous VWAP of 156.54. Support has adjusted higher to 155.16, while resistance has increased to 157.92. The RSI has decreased to 55, reflecting a moderation of bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel and reverse to test the highs.
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
Support is located at 18420 and should stem dips to this area.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 18425 (stop at 18325) 2,5RR
Our profit targets will be 18675 and 18745
Resistance: 18540 / 18605 / 18700
Support: 18486 / 18421 / 18361
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#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax xetra - this is the first time I post a xetra chart as well. I trade the dax cfd but I want to find out how big the interest in my post is for xetra vs cfd. Only difference is in price.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18500. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 525 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 940 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18500ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18770 or possibly even wait for 18880 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18550 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 18900
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 17700 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 18900.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18650.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18650 early next week. TP 18770 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18250 fast and below that is 17900.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18497 and now we are at 18557. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18650 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 17900 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 18890 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 18900, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19400 or 20000.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18800. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 572 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 1229 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18650ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18800 or possibly even wait for 19000 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 19000
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 18600 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 19000.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18700.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18700 early next week. TP 18800 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18300 fast and below that is 18000.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18638 and now we are at 18572. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18700 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 19000 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 19000, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19500 or 20000.
Ger30Ger30 Clean setup.If you know you Smart money concepts,then you know that this is a clean setup .
