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DAX weekly forecast from April 2nd, 2024Situation assessment XETR:DAX 1. We have reached another trend reversal zone 2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows: 1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630) 2. In perspective, EUREX:FDAX1! The next striking decision zone is 18,777 (+/-) in focus. The weekly XETR:DAX peak was reached with 5 points less at exactly 18,513.83 and to create this forecast the FDAX reached 18,776 in late trading ;-). The rest of the forecast is also impressive... Be that as it may, at the beginning of April we will be flooded with some standardized purchase orders (funds, savings plans, etc.) until the April expiry, which will give the DAX a slight further boost. Professional traders use this as an opportunity, especially at the end of the quarter, to take antagonistic positions and carry out a latent “rebalance” at the next quarterly end in June. In perspective, we see the round 18,650 / 680 in XETR:DAX as a potential high point before we could take corrective measures. This would be equivalent to approximately $18,995 EUREX:FDAX1! points. For the homeopathic Waver faction among us: … we see the 3 of the running 5 at the final end, before we get the 4... . As you have probably already noticed, we don't like "mystical wave predictions" - although we do take the "waves" into account in our models, just as emotionless and interpretation-free mathematical functions, e.g. in the form of adaptive signal decomposition . In addition, other factors often play a much more crucial role for professional traders than the “Bloomberg” faction is trying to sell us. As long as XETR:DAX 18,535 can be validly overcome on a daily basis as of April 2nd over the course of the week, the gates are open for us to achieve even higher goals via 18,613 / 683. For this it would be necessary to overcome the 18,726 valid on a daily closing price basis over the course of the week. If this happens, nothing stands in the way of the ~18,900 to 19,095 / 209 until the April monthly witch dance. From a standard pivot perspective, the XETR:DAX weekly-monthly comparison shows 18,646 / 679 as a valid resistance zone. Furthermore, the R2 annual pivot is at 18,597, which will not have an exact braking effect at this point, but will have a braking effect in this region. Unless an exogenous black swan emerges, it is not worth paying much attention to the downside for the coming week. On the one hand, the hedging needs (VDAX, SKEW, ...) speak against this and, on the other hand, our trend barometer and the general momentum currently show no reason to worry. On the contrary: setbacks will be bought (!). Nevertheless, the XETR:DAX Magistrale (MoB) is at 18,247 for the coming week. Only when it is validly below... is it time to consider a short strategy and set an anchor point again (did you remember? ;)) However, don't forget: we are in a shortened trading week in the western-oriented world with lower sales in the future and the associated volatile uncertainties (!) So don't be disappointed if the high in March has already been marked with the April contract change . If you value this article and the work involved, follow us and give us a thumbs up - it doesn't hurt (:-) It is worth mentioning “by the way” that in terms of chart technology we have achieved an extension from 2000 – 2008 with ~18,485. We forecast based on mathematical models for XETR:DAX as follows: 1. Trend barometer: UP 2nd week UP peak: between 18,613 and 18,683 (Bonus: 18,726) 3rd week DOWN peak: between 18,357 and 18,287 4. Arithmetic mean: between 18,384 and 18,586 5. MOB technical price mark: 18,428 6. Pivot fluctuation range: 18,216 / 18,722 7. Fair Value GD / Low / High: 18,440 / 904 / 935 8. VIX Zones: 11.58 / 12.66 Notes ===== Stock market rule: Markets can behave irrationally longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keynes) Forecasts are what they are: A look into the future taking into account the past, which can change dynamically, positively or negatively, from the time of publication To create this forecast, a trend-following system (TM) developed in-house using, among other things, mathematical, statistical, rolling, volume-based, differential analysis methods is used and accordingly shortened and simplified in an informative, non-indirect manner here on Tradingview in the generally accessible public area free of charge for personal use.
XETR:DAXLong
by skiski
German DAX: New Highs?Hey Traders, The state of the German Economy, alike other economic zones and economies has seen twists and turns. From hopeful highs, to fearful lows, the transition from confidence to incompetence has been viewed widely. The current retracement above local and historic highs comes about as the US index markets also rise, after inflation reports and comments from the FED feeding global confidence. Falls on fears the global economy will crash, back to rebounds on the basis that maybe things are not so bad. These fears and hopes can be seen throughout the general market and comments from the FED in the US giving an overall 'world sentiment'. Its important to take note of the fundamental and technical bias that presents, as they often go hand in hand. The Point of fundamental analysis is to gauge current and future market mood. The point of Technical Analysis is to gauge the validity of a price point and its preferability amongst traders alike. A reduction in global tensions recently and lesser fears of an energy crisis have helped the global economy and indeed the German economy as they consume a lot of energy and require oil in copious amounts to function. Putting the two together allows you to pick key short zones BEFORE negative news occurs, since markets are pretty much a transition of investors buying when things seem like they'll go up, to shorting when there is belief they will go down. Germany, in particular, has frequently had a robust economy and the sustained growth of the economy has led to a boost in the value of the DAX as its inherent companies grow accordingly. It was considered at times the strong economy in Europe. As Germany experienced a PMI reading of under 50, this generally reflects a contracting economy. This is also the case in other places in the world where there is very little growth, like the UK. This is mainly driven as consumers stop spending money and thus businesses make less money. Business is also slowed by the cost of borrowing and the cost of materials and machinery. Sentiment Bias (market mood/fundamentals): Particularly, Germany faces problems with residentials builds at the moment as more and more companies start to cancel planned projects that they were going to follow through with. It's just become too expensive for them to complete and they are having to scale back, further slowing the overall health of the economy. There is also the budget crisis in which the planned spending by Germany to stimulate the economy has many questions over its head. The amount being borrowed comes heavily into question, particularly now. Technical Bias (reading charts and using price): We are returning to key price levels seen previously on Market falls. These are short areas and certainly not time to buy, especially inline with the aforementioned. The rally in price mainly comes as conditions are better elsewhere in the world and giving indication to what may occur in future. Short bias much preferred at this point, with a light intention, due to rapid moves into previous highs. The reason why highs are used for shorting markets is because they tell you where the previously preferred long exit areas and thus short entry areas are located in the minds of investors and traders alike. Its important to note in conjunction that the most recent fall has not taken you enormously further down and therefore it can be inferred that somewhat long bias, whether founded or unfounded exists. From here, I would be reacting / checking for lower timeframe entry confirmation and signs price is halting. One must be cautious when determining short areas. Identifying overall high prices and taking a fundamental bias is fine. But it has to be backed up heavily by rational and logical risk management plans in the event you do indeed reach higher highs, despite economic headwinds.
XETR:DAXShort
by WillSebastian
3
The continuation of the bullish market and then the wave degree Dear analysts and traders, I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it. I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision. I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily. I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him. Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, Mr. Nobody
FX:GER30Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
Weekly Technical Analysis 25/03/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 has continued its bullish trend in the impulsive phase, with a notable rise in price to 18,210, now positioned above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,896. The index has established new support at 17,513 and is encountering resistance near 18,279. The RSI has slightly increased to 71, suggesting sustained positive momentum. UK 100 has shifted to a bullish trend, now in the impulsive phase, with its price at 7,916, positioned significantly above the still quite flat 20-period VWAP of 7,722. The index's support level is now at 7,526, with resistance identified at 7,917. The RSI has risen to 69, indicating a strong shift toward bullish sentiment. Wall Street remains in a bullish trend in the impulsive phases but put in a large bearish engulfing candle, with the price adjusting to 39,402, still above the upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,964. The index's support is at 38,258, with resistance determined at 39,669. The RSI is at 59, reflecting a shift towards a more bullish momentum state from neutral. Brent Crude has slightly adjusted in its bullish trend, remaining in the impulsive phase, with its price decreasing to 85.23, above the up-sloping 20-period VWAP of 83.91. The support level is at 80.66, with resistance closely set at 87.16. The RSI has decreased to 59, indicating a slight reduction in bullish momentum. Gold continues in a bullish trend and is still in the impulsive phase, with the price consolidating to 2,166, marginally above the 20-period VWAP of 2,157. The support level has been revised to 2,104, with resistance now at 2,210. The RSI has decreased to 60, still reflecting strong bullish sentiment but slightly less than before. EUR/USD might be coming to the end of its bullish trend and is now in the corrective phase, with its price at 1.0819, below its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0885. The support is now at 1.0789, with resistance at 1.0980. The RSI at 43 indicates a shift to negative momentum. GBP/USD has shifted to a bearish trend in the impulsive phase, with its price at 1.2605, below the 20-period VWAP of 1.2731. The support has been adjusted to 1.2570, with resistance at 1.2892. The RSI at 38 suggests new bearish sentiment. USD/JPY has flipped back to a bullish trend, recently entering the impulsive phase, with its price at 151.35, significantly above the 20-period VWAP of 149.26. The support has been revised up to 145.94, with resistance at 152.59. The RSI at 64 indicates a shift toward stronger bullish momentum.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
Is Germany's economy the biggest indicator for DAX traders?For over half a year, traders have been witnessing the epic rise of Germany’s Dax index (DE30), recently passing $18,000 (USD). For decades, the index, a beacon of Germany's corporate power, seemed invincible, with its German companies all reaching new peaks. But beneath this veneer of German engineering and strength, the foundations are shaking. Germany's robust economy, the engine of Europe, is showing unmistakable signs of wear. Just last year, economists started pointing to the subtle yet telling signs of an impending downturn for Germany. Since then, GDP growth was slashed to 0.2% for 2024, a significant and disturbing downgrade from previous forecasts​​​​. The manufacturing sector continues to suffer from weak global demand and high energy costs, with harsh implications for future exports​​. In addition, shortages in skilled workers​​ plague major industries, and yet the unemployment lines, rarely seen in this land of efficiency, are growing. Despite all this gloom, the DAX continues its upward trajectory, seemingly oblivious to any doom on the horizon. There is a clear disconnect between the DAX's performance and the weakening German economy. Perhaps the market, often driven by sentiment, has not yet caught up with reality. If that’s true, then we are all looking at a pending opportunity to take a position before the action begins. Germany’s economic indicators are contrasting the current DAX price trend. For technical traders, all signs are bullish. But for economists and fundamental traders, shorting DE30 at the all-time high may well seem like an obvious move. Before you trade DE30, consider that the markets are not reacting with traditional patterns. In theory, it makes sense that the top-performing companies of an economically failing nation would experience financial complications, but we are seeing a similar and puzzling disconnect in the US too. Despite all the woes, USD and US indices are still flying high. Coincidence? Maybe. One thing is for sure, traders closely watching the current political and economic stage will stand a better chance of being the ‘early bird’ for any major rallies and crashes in 2024.
XETR:DAX
by Exness_Official
1
DAX H4 | Approaching overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,131.66 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 17,850.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 18,779.98 which is a level that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
DAX (DAX Index): Waves of uncertainty 🌊DAX (DAX Index): XETR:DAX We recognize that our analysis might diverge from other analysts', but our assessment clearly indicates that the DAX is currently in an overarching Wave 4, visible on the weekly chart within a multi-year scenario. This holds unless we surpass the 18,000 level. If we move beyond 18,000, a reevaluation and recount would be necessary. Until then, we anticipate a decline in the DAX over the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The exact timing, whether it rises or falls, cannot be pinpointed to a specific year. However, it's important to note that as long as the DAX doesn't exceed 138%, or the 18,000 mark, we expect to be in an Expanded Flat scenario. This aligns well with our expectations for Wave C or the overarching Wave IV, which should fall below Wave (A), fitting the pattern where both B and C waves overshoot in an Expanded Flat. Examining the 4-hour chart, we encounter the same scenario. Without flipping this key level, no significant change is expected. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest an imminent rise, not immediately obvious on the daily or weekly charts, predicting a climb to around 17,500 euros before a downturn in the DAX. We do not anticipate an immediate reversal today or tomorrow but expect a final upward impulse before a corrective move downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves█ Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves In the intriguing world of stock trading, the research paper "Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves" by Andrey Kudryavtsev takes a deep dive into the dynamics of stock price behavior, particularly focusing on interday reversals. Key to this study is the exploration of potentially profitable contrarian strategies. Preceding research has shown that these strategies, which bet against the current market trends, can yield significant abnormal returns – approximately 1.7% weekly and 2.5% monthly. The study analyzes thirty stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Index, focusing on high-to-close and low-to-close price differences. It finds that stocks usually have higher returns following days with significant end-of-day price drops and lower returns after days with end-of-day price rises. These patterns suggest a market correction of overreactions. Based on these findings, the construction of daily-adjusted portfolios shows significantly positive returns, indicating the profitability of trading strategies based on these reversal patterns. █ Research Background and Hypothesis In stock trading, the concept of price overreaction is not new. Prior studies have established that stock prices often overreact to news, leading to a subsequent correction or reversal to a more 'fair' reaction level. This is particularly evident in intraday stock price movements, where overreactions and reversals are commonly observed. To investigate this, the study utilizes high-to-close and low-to-close stock price differences as proxies for end-of-the-day price decreases and increases. These price differences are compared for each stock in the sample and on each trading day. The hypothesis is that the daily return of a stock will be higher if its previous day's high-to-close difference is greater than the low-to-close difference. █ Methodology Let's get into the nuts and bolts. The study focused on thirty stocks that form the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Trading data from January 2, 2002, to September 30, 2011, encompassing 2,456 trading days was analyzed. Kudryavtsev used these stocks' daily high, low, and closing prices, as recorded on finance.yahoo.com. But it wasn't just a straightforward data grab. The prices were meticulously adjusted for dividend payments and stock splits. This adjustment was done by multiplying each actual price by the ratio of the day's reported adjusted closing price (as per Yahoo Finance) to the actual closing price. ⚪ For each stock and for each trading day (except the first day of the sampling period), two key metrics were calculated: High-to-Close Price Difference (RHCit): This measures the difference between the stock’s daily high and closing price. RHCit := math.abs(high - close) / close * 100 Low-to-Close Price Difference (RLCit): The difference between the stock’s daily low and closing price. RLCit := math.abs(low - close) / close * 100 These differences are expressed as absolute percentage price differences, ensuring they are non-negative values. By focusing on these two metrics, the study aimed to capture the essence of the stock's performance and its potential for a reversal the following day. █ Findings and Analysis For most stocks analyzed (28 out of 30), mean daily returns were higher following days with dominant high-to-close price differences, i.e., days closed with price decreases. This trend was statistically significant for most of these stocks, with 22 showing significant mean return differences at the 5% level, including 15 at the 1% level. Furthermore, for most stocks (29 out of 30), mean daily returns were positive when the previous day's high-to-close price difference prevailed and negative when the low-to-close difference did. These results support the study's hypothesis, demonstrating a pattern of reverting behavior in stock prices following end-of-the-day price moves. Such findings contribute to the existing literature on stock price overreactions and market inefficiencies and suggest potentially profitable opportunities for traders who can capitalize on these predictable reversal patterns. █ Implications for Traders Andrey Kudryavtsev's study offers valuable insights for traders, especially those focusing on short-term investments. The key findings highlight a consistent pattern where stocks tend to reverse their price movement the following day after significant end-of-day changes. For traders looking to capitalize on these insights, the study suggests constructing portfolios that adjust daily based on the observed reversal pattern. This involves holding long positions in stocks expected to yield high returns (following large high-to-close price decreases) and short positions in stocks expected to yield low returns (following large low-to-close price increases). By comparing the high-to-close and low-to-close price differences to the mean and median measures for the total sample, traders can identify stocks likely to follow the reversal pattern. This approach could be particularly effective for day traders or those who make frequent, short-term trades, as it leverages the daily fluctuations in stock prices. However, traders need to consider transaction costs and market volatility, which can impact the profitability of such strategies. █ Reference Kudryavtsev, A. (2013). Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves. Economics Letters, 118(3), 203-205 ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by Zeiierman
3