How far can Dax continue to grow?The DAX stock index is approaching the overlapping zone of bullish targets, and we expect to end our move by recording the historical ceiling in the overlapping zone and FTR doing for the broken ceilings.
GERMANY40CFD trade ideas
Ger30 On ger30 we can also see that the market is consolidating withing the daily structure as all directional timeframss confirmed the bullish momentum.
germany 30Pair : Germany 30
Description :
Completed " 12 " Impulsive Waves
RSI - Divergence
Break of Structure
Double Top
Resistance Level
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Bullish market continuation to complete the third waveGreetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
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Dax (Eurex) may rise to 17775.00 - 17817.00Pivot
17655.00
Our preference
Long positions above 17655.00 with targets at 17775.00 & 17817.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 17655.00 look for further downside with 17618.00 & 17576.00 as targets.
Comment
A support base at 17655.00 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Supports and resistances
17850.00
17817.00
17775.00
17745.00 Last
17655.00
17618.00
17576.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
DAX H4 | Potential bullish breakoutThe DAX (GER40) could rise towards a potential breakout level and make a bullish continuation towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,830.55
Why we like it:
There is a potential breakout level (wait for 1-hour candle to close above 17,830.55 for a breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: 17,569.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 18,082.38
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level
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GerMan 30 Moves FX:GER30 There are only 2 possibilities for me here, if Ger30 fails to break the X indicated High from a demand spotted, there's a high chance of going down to the POI that is eyed, but because of the harsh bullish trend that has been going on, should it break without contacting the demand within the retracement zone, candle stick communication (aggression..etc)+choch will give us an entry
DAX Bullish Impulse Looks IncompleteShort Term Elliott Wave View in DAX suggests that rally from 1.17.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 1.17.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 17049.52 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 16834.94. Up from there, wave ((iii)) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Wave (i) ended at 17198.45 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 17019.15. The Index extends higher again in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 17084.87 and wave ii dips ended at 17029.59. Wave iii higher ended at 17429.66 and wave iv ended at 17354.76. Final leg wave v ended at 17816.52 which completed wave (iii).
Pullback in wave (iv) ended at 17643.11 with internal subdivision as a double three. Down from wave (iii), wave w ended at 17690.89 and wave x ended at 17759.02. Final leg wave y ended at 17643.11 which completed wave (iv) in higher degree. The Index then resumes higher in wave (v). Up from wave (iv), wave i ended at 17746.57 and wave ii ended at 17677.03. Near term, as far as pivot at 16834.94 stays intact, expect Index to extend higher.
#DAX - 6 MarI was looking for a move lower for DAX yesterday and we got the move (). Levels worked perfect despite the somewhat choppy movement (DAX was strong despite weakness in the US indices). The strong level below held perfectly while the level above also provide a good short during the US session and mentioned in the group chat.
If I look at the daily candle, price action still looks bearish and toppish to me. I am still in the opinion of weakness in DAX for today.
Currently DAX is rather strong; so I am not surprised if DAX test the 17743, form a double top but come down lower, with 17657 as first target and further down to 17565. If I am right on the down move today, I would think the magnitude of down move will not be as significant as that of yesterday.
But do note that Powell will be speaking today. Not sure what he will say, but IMO market is bulled up for rate cuts. If Powell say something about not cutting rates, that will be bad news IMO.
Looking for a bounce off the 17565 level, but if break, strong levels below would be 17479 and 17417.
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
Today most markets showed some restraint and bulls actually began taking profits, which is very unusual for the last weeks, to say the least. We don’t know if bulls will be more cautious buying at the highs this time and we go more sideways or bulls will continue the pump further.
I will give an update on Bitcoin tomorrow on tradingview (link on x) and Oil in the after hour update tomorrow. Oil is bullish as long as it stays above the daily 20ema which is around 77.5 right now. So bulls bought it today and i expect more sideways the next days.
dax
Dax is in a weak bear channel since Friday’s ATH and i expect the range 17600 - 17850 to hold for more days, unless something unexpected happens or is reported.
bull case: Bulls keeping this still far far above the daily 20ema which is at 17400. As long as they stay above that, the see the market as bullish and will buy the dips. Today was an expected trading range day where the close was near the open (about 20 points above). I’d be surprised if bears can get it below 17630 and as long as that holds, we will trade back and forth inside the weak bear channel for now.
bear case: Bears are probably euphoric because they stopped the market from making another daily new ath. They are taking quick profits and waiting for higher prices to short, which is why we ranged today. Bears next target is 17600 and then 17400 which is the current daily 20ema and the low of last week.
short term: neutral - range between 17600 - 17760 (weak bear channel) - break below is 17600 next. above is retest of ath 17846
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024.
trade of the day: gap close last Friday 17763 and selling the big bear bar 16 as it was forming. was very clear on the 15m chart because there were 4 bars that could not close above 17760
Good Short-ChanceLets see what could happen here.
The window dressing is ending and the candles already showing weakness.
we can try to go even further down in hope that retail trader panicsell. (Longsqueeze)
DAX Time to respect the 17-year Channel and correct.Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday:
At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively.
This time however, DAX is sending a bearish signal as by hitting 17800 it reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 17-year Channel Up that started on the July 2007 High, right at the peak of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
At the same time it almost hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which is a key level as every time the index (nearly) hit it (May 2014, January 2018, February 2020), it corrected by at least -15%. As a result we think a test of January's Low at 16350 would be a modest target, even though it might seem unrealistic under the current market sentiment. A -15% decline would even test the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 2022 and the post Inflation Crisis recovery.
Note that we currently only starting the 3rd Mega Cycle. Both previous 2 peaked their Higher Highs on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (measuring from Sine Wave Top to Sine Wave Top). So on a multi-year basis, as investors we look to take advantage of these corrections and buy for an ultimate 2028 Target at 20500.
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Weekly Technical Analysis 04/03/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price at 17,745, significantly above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,267. The index finds support at 16,654 and faces resistance near 17,881. The RSI stands at 77, indicating a strong positive momentum and is now in the overbought territory, which marks a noticeable change from the previous analysis.
UK 100 is consolidating in a neutral trend with its price at 7,671.5, slightly above the flat 20-period VWAP of 7,643.4. The index's support level is now at 7,517.1, with resistance at 7,769.7. The RSI has decreased to 52, suggesting a more balanced momentum than previously reported.
Wall Street is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price increased to 39,037, above the upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,740. The support for this index has risen to 38,224, with resistance now at 39,256. The RSI has decreased to 61, indicating strong positive momentum, albeit slightly less than before.
Brent Crude has shifted to a bullish trend in its impulsive phase, with its price at 83.31, above the upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 82.15. The support level has moved up to 80.63, with resistance very close at 83.66. The RSI is at 59, indicating a shift to positive momentum.
Gold has entered a bullish trend in the impulsive phase, with its price at 2,084, well above the 20-period VWAP of 2,029. The support level has advanced to 1,976, with resistance now at 2,083. The RSI at 73 indicates a strong positive momentum, highlighting a significant change towards bullish sentiment.
EUR/USD has transitioned to the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with the price at 1.0852, above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0802. The support is now at 1.0724, with resistance at 1.0880. The RSI at 56 indicates a shift to a more positive outlook than previously noted.
GBP/USD is still in a consolidation with no directional bias, though possibly moving towards a bullish trend, with the price at 1.2667, above the 20-period VWAP of 1.2635. Support has risen to 1.2566, with resistance at 1.2704. The RSI at 53 suggests a positive momentum, marking a change from the previous weak bearish trend.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned to the corrective phase, with its price at 150.39, just above the 20-period VWAP of 150.15. The support level has adjusted to 149.37, with resistance at 150.94. The RSI is at 60, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
DAX to find buyers at market?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17817.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 17684.
We look to Buy at 17700 (stop at 17615)
Our profit targets will be 17920 and 17975
Resistance: 17817 / 17900 / 18000
Support: 17688 / 17600 / 17500
Risk Disclaimer
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#DAX - 4 MarOn Friday we saw a change in the strength of DAX as it hit new ATH but came down after while US indices was stronger and rallied to ATH after. Some rotation that is, given how DAX was rallying the days prior, while US indices, especially on Thursday, dipped and recovered, setting up for the continuation on Friday.
DAX I gave a long from bottom of PZ but DAX hit the mid of PZ and recovered 70points. Price is opening at the PZ now.
Overall we can see weekly price action is bullish so could see further upside this week, but I am not discounting a possible pullback first. A pullback to 17459 will still not change the trend.
Daily wise, bearish divergence so could be sign for a pullback. Could do a short below 17753 PZ, or wait for the longs after a pullback.
Target for short would beg to 17629/47 which is a strong level, and would give an opportunity to look for longs for a move higher. If market continue to go up from here, I would like to take a counter trend short at 17845 back to PZ.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
I let my thoughts go wild this week so have my tl;dr here:
tl;dr: IMO this is the end of the long ongoing bull trend we had and the climactic moves at the end are not as rare as many think. That does not help you with shorts right now. Scalp long where big or many consecutive bull bars appear and wait for bears to show up again. I think we are very close to the end. Do. Not. Short. Yet.
For the people who bear my writing… I dare you to find me an extremer example of a more climactic move at the end of a long ongoing trend than this one. US markets have reasonable trend lines and channels which they respect but the dax is just in a parabolic up move without stopping. Which makes me think everyone and their dog was/is short and covering, fueling the fire. But i will die on that hill, that this is the end of the bull trend and not the beginning of a new one. I called the -30% (at least) drop for this year and i stick to that.
I try to keep to price action for my trading as much as i can and most macro news are not affecting the market as most people think they do. Now comes the but. I live in Germany and we are in an economic downtrend with very high rates compared to the last 14 years. Find someone which company says they are hiring extensively and outlooks are raised. DM me then please.
Markets are a casino in the short term but Macroeconomics (i like to call it macro schmackro) will catch up eventually. It always has and always will. One very clear indicator, which everyone knows and rarely listens to are people around you after a trend has been going on for quite some time. Goes as follows:
You hear colleagues, neighbors, granny and your dead dog talking about markets only going ti*ts up and options are the name of the game. Crypto is yes yes yes buybuybuy. Then you look at the chart and see that it has been going up for a long long time. That’s where these trends end. Something news worthy will come up on the horizon and you can be sure many people who will lose their savings, pension and whatnot over the next 2 years. This was and always will be a boom bust cycle. The bust probably does not go below some pre-bust levels but it will bust as it always has.
Does that mean i call to short this and the high is in? Well, i thought the late December price action formed a credible top but on the weekly it was a rather small pullback. You simply can’t short into this if you can’t take the pain. Markets are giving no signal that the highs are in, so you should scalp long and wait for markets to become more two sided.
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls probably want to touch that big green bull trend line at around 17500 which is pretty far fetched imo. Market is still not accepting anything above 17100 and bulls took profits going into the weekend.
I think the low probability breakout above happened and trapped many traders who sold everything above 17100, which worked since mid December. Probably exhaustion but bears need to prove that early next week.
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
bear case: Easier to have bear targets but bears have done nothing this week so everything i write here is low probability and you should only look for these targets when bears clearly show strength and making lower highs and lower lows. First target is a 1h close below Fridays open 17442 and the 1h 20ema is around there too. 17400 was tested multiple times on Friday and i think we could range there first. For the very low probability of a big sign of strength by the bears and a sell-off below 17380, next would be the uber monster bullish gap 17160 which is also my thesis for the exhaustion gap. My bearish thesis only lives if we close the next week below 17000 because the monthly close is the most important thing now for bears. If bulls close above 17400, it is a clear buy signal for higher time frame traders/algo's and it means acceptance. We had two daily closes above my invalidation target and if bulls can keep this gap open, we see higher prices.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17461 and now we are at 17775. i said sideways to up but it was only up. not the worst outlook but the extend of the up can only be surprising to anyone
short term: neutral is the only reasonable thing here. after so many buy climaxes without more pullback, the odds of continuation drop to almost impossible. does that mean we go down from here? hell no. it’s just very low probability that this can continue without a meaningful pullback. but these things happen and they can go on for longer than most can stay solvent. if bears won’t shop up, scalp long where bulls show strength.
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024.
I have drawn 2 possible paths and the bearish one is the one i think will play out. maybe not time-wise but price-wise.
GER40 BUY LONGAs you can see from the chart, every time the price is liquidated, it immediately starts to rise again. I expect a resumption of liquidity, as shown on the chart, to lead to a recovery.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 04/03/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
DAX: Next week could be the top. Downside more than -6% possibleDAX is approaching the 16 month HH Zone while being vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 76.873, MACD = 201.900, ADX = 41.880). The 1D CCI shows that we may be entering a period of volatility similar to what followed after the May 19th 2023 High, which initially resulted into a -6.42% correction. Based on that, our bearish target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,850).
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The possibility of the DAXEUR going down in the weekly time framDAX is approaching its sell zone in the weekly time frame, and due to the filling of the time frame, we can consider the possibility of reacting to this zone.
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
I repeated the importance of the monthly close today because my thesis is still that the sp500 e-mini needs daily closes above 5100 for this not being the final move of an unbelievably climactic move. February closed at 5096.5. Does that make my thesis right and we sell off from here? Probably not. Markets mostly going nowhere except for the dax and we need a bigger move with follow through for a new direction.
dax
Quote from yesterday:
short term: same as last days - btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up
We got same as last days. Higher high and close at the highs. Nothing is stopping this. Every pullback is bought and buying the 1h 20ema is a profitable strategy for 2 straight weeks. I honestly think we are a couple of days away from funds closing because they kept shorting this. Please forgive my lack of enthusiasm to go deeper into price action for this index. It’s beyond climactic and i think any bigger profit taking could trigger an avalanche of stops because no one want’s to be left holding the bag. Still, for now, it’s only going up and could continue longer than anyone would think.
Side note: I dare you to find another example for the Dax where it gained more points on declining GDP figures. Disclaimer: I do think financial markets are nothing but the biggest casino in the world, short term. Long term obviously, fundamentals win. But the extend of this move into this economic outlook and reported figures left and right is beyond anything and i already accounted for a big blow off top and a climactic move on top but this exceeds it by far.
bull case: btfd.
bear case: none.
short term: up and this only changes once we stop making higher highs and start making lower lows again
medium-long term: bulls closed the month at the highs and my medium-long term targets were way off and i was early in December to call this top. Maybe it tops at 18000, maybe not.
trade of the day: same as last 2 weeks, buy everything around the 1h 20ema
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 01/03/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
