Nasdaq Analysis: 09-DEC-2024Good morning, trading community! Today's Nasdaq analysis is for you. Share your thoughts, ask questions, and let me help you grow.
USTECH100MINICFD trade ideas
NASDAQ ONE MONTH FORECASTAfter breaking so many levels and reaching such a high price, nasdaq should stop soon to correct ;
we think it could go up to 22K max, then come back to the red KL, which are the ones that never were corrected ;
not exactly sure when or how, but this round top seems like a realistic way to end the year for US100.
NAS100 Poised for Growth Amid Heavy Selling PressureHello,
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is positioned for further bullish growth, with all indicators aligning for an upward trend. However, sellers are currently stepping in with significant activity.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
NADAQ100 D1Nasdaq100 is in a bullish trend, we could see after a change of structure many BOS ( Break of Structure) has confirmed. So the strategy is simple, wait for price revist a proper lower zone in which we could enter long.
If case price fall down deeper, we marked a zone to consider a Choch or structure change for short oppty.
Good Trading!
a clear long buy held with no emotions,let your wins runthe market is in a bulish trend,all the short positions are small pull backs
NAS100: FUTURE PIVOT POINTSTry to catch these pivot points
TacTic Time Traders is here to predict TIME for you.
NAS100 - A Small Inkling of a Ceiling?20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
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How I see it:
1HR TF is showing development of a bearish order block
Possible re-test of key confluence, now support
Keynote!
The bull trend rapidly changed angle to almost vertical previous sessions.
Short sellers are circling on sideline...
Institutions are hunting liquidity and/or maximizing profits for
year-end closing of long positions.
The FED (Powell) mentioning further rate cuts:
(Only for above mentioned purpose naturally!!)
I have made a note on these promises exactly at this time of year,
which will also drive US stocks up far beyond overbought prices.
Since 2022, rate cut promises @ year end never materialized
until second half of the following year, or only the last quarter of the following year.
With new administration taking over in January,
this time It might be different, and I might be wrong!
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
NASDAQ, setup for 25k (20% potential)Hello everyone,
based on the major wave 3, we can make a projection to imagine where the global markets could form a major top. In my view we are entering the last stages of the bull run, with a potential of 20% gains to come. After reaching the top, a major bear market could start, but I don't expect the top to be in before at least Q1 of 2025.
What I also want to point out is that we are about to test the very significant last swing high from where wave 4 started. I should be a good zone to start buying again, as we are in a strong bullish trend. If you need confirmation observe this level closely.
Nasdaq may retrace to support/trendline, before it continues itsNasdaq may retrace to support/trendline, before it continues its uptrend.
USNAS100 / New ATH Historical Price, and Still To 21590Technical Analysis
The price has successfully reached a historic all-time high (ATH) at 21500 and continues to gain momentum, targeting the next resistance at 21,590, and then it's possible to trade with a bearish trend after 21590.
So now any stability above 21485 will get the price toward 21590, and then should break the resistance zone to get 21900,
Otherwise, stability below 21450 by closing the 4h candle under it, means will drop to get 21290 and 21220
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21480
Resistance Levels: 21590, 21670, 21800
Support Levels: 21290, 21150, 20990
previous idea:
NAS 100 BUY OPPRTUNITIES CAN BE GRABBED!!
DESCRIPTION
Trade is analysed in line with the overall swing of the market structure . Atm we can see the price has dropped down to strong area of demand on 4hr. ( a strong demand zone we can confirm as with the strong wick rejection seen on the earlier candles . )
Price has also shown a change of character on 4hr by breaking the fractal structure and giving us a idea on possible future entries .
As of now i am awaiting the price to drop further on 1hr demand zone and if does reach there we could look for possible entries on coming days for buy .
Trend analysis
MArket Structure
Supply and demand
Liquidity
Premium n discount.
[Education] Your Results Have Nothing To Do With StrategiesHave you ever wondered why some trades feel different than others? You're following the same strategy, looking at the same patterns, but something just feels... off.
Last week, I received a message from a trader who was convinced that his strategy wasn't working. He had back-tested it extensively with 300 data points, showing a 45% win rate with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Statistically, he should have been profitable. Yet after three months of live trading, his account was down 28%.
What he and what most traders didn’t realize and never consider is that his problem wasn't his strategy. It was something far more dangerous.
The Hidden Force Destroying Your Trading Account
Think about your last losing trade. Be honest with yourself:
- Did you move your stop loss because you "felt" the market would reverse?
- Did you enter early because you were afraid of missing the move?
- Did you close a winning trade too soon because you couldn't handle seeing profits disappear?
If you answered yes to any of these, congratulations - you've just discovered why most traders fail, and it has nothing to do with your strategy.
The Expensive Truth About Trading Psychology
When I first started trading, I lost over $20,000. It’s not because my analysis was wrong. I just couldn't control my emotions.
Here's what would happen. I'd spot a perfect setup according to my plan. I’ll enter the trade. I’d sit right in front of my computer and watch every tick of price movement. I panic when the trade went against me which resulted in me to either cut winners short or let losers run.
Sound familiar? You might be making these same mistakes without even realizing it.
Why Your Brain Is Working Against You
Here's what nobody tells you about trading. Your brain is literally wired to make you fail.
When you see your account going into drawdown:
- Your heart rate increases
- Stress hormones flood your body
- Your prefrontal cortex (logical thinking) shuts down
- Your amygdala (emotional center) takes over
This is the same response your ancestors had when facing a lion. Great for survival, terrible for trading.
The Four Emotional Traps Every Trader Falls Into
1. Fear of Loss
- Moving stop losses
- Cutting winners short
- Not taking valid setups
2. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
- Entering without confirmation
- Chasing price
- Taking sub-par setups
3. Revenge Trading
- Doubling down after losses
- Trading bigger size to "make it back"
- Taking trades outside your plan
4. Overconfidence
- Increasing position size after wins
- Ignoring risk management
- Breaking rules because "you feel it"
All these results in reduced win rate and smaller profits due to increased losses from poor entries, potentially wiping out weeks or months of profits. In serious cases, these may lead to blown accounts and destroyed confidence.
The Math Behind Emotional Trading
Let's say you have a strategy with:
- 40% win rate
- 1:2 risk-reward ratio
- 1% risk per trade
Mathematically, this strategy should make money. But emotions change everything:
Without Emotions:
- Winners: 40 trades × 2R = +80R
- Losers: 60 trades × -1R = -60R
- Net Result: +20R
With Emotions:
- Cut winners early: 40 trades × 1R = +40R
- Let losers run: 60 trades × -1.5R = -90R
- Net Result: -50R
Same strategy, completely different results.
Signs You're Trading Emotionally
Even if you don’t realize it, there are signs that you’re trading emotionally. You need to journal down and be conscious about it.
1. Before the Trade
- Feeling the pressure to trade
- Unable to wait for perfect setups
- Entering without proper analysis and confirmation
2. During the Trade
- Constantly checking your P&L
- Feeling anxiety about open positions
- Unable to follow your trade plan and trade management
3. After the Trade
- Feeling euphoric after wins
- Feeling depressed after losses
- Unable to stop thinking about trading
The Solution: Building Your Trading Psychology
Here's the framework I used to transform from an emotional wreck to a consistent trader:
1. Preparation Phase
- Write down exact entry, stop loss, target, and your emotional state (Check out my FREE trading journal)
- Calculate position size before entering
- Take screenshots of your analysis
- Review your rules checklist
2. Execution Phase
- Set and forget your orders (if applicable)
- No watching charts if not necessary
- No checking P&L
- No moving stop losses (unless it fits your trade management)
3. Review Phase
- Journal every trade
- Rate your emotional state
- Track rule violations
- Learn from mistakes
Real Results From Managing Emotions
My First Month Trading:
- Started with $10,000
- Took 45 trades
- Broke every rule in my plan
- Ended down 40%
After Implementing Emotional Control:
- Managing $200,000 funded account
- Taking 15-20 trades per month
- Following rules strictly
- Consistent 3-5% monthly returns
By the way, I've passed another funded challenge this week using the lessons implemented here!
Taking Action: Your First Steps
1. Start a Trading Journal
- Record your emotions before each trade
- Note any rules you break
- Track the cost of emotional decisions
2. Create a Pre-Trade Checklist
- Entry criteria
- Risk management rules
- Position sizing calculations
- Market condition requirements
3. Build Better Habits
- Trade smaller size while learning
- Remove P&L display from charts
- Set and forget your orders (If applicable)
- Review trades only at set times
The Path Forward
Remember, everyone feels emotions while trading. The goal isn't to eliminate emotions. It's to prevent them from affecting your decisions.
The market doesn't care how you feel. It doesn't care about your hopes, fears, or dreams. The only thing that matters is whether you can execute your strategy consistently, regardless of emotions.
The choice is yours. Continue letting emotions control your trading, or learn to control your emotions.
US100/NASDAQ GOING UPAfter a long uptrend which we could not wait would stop, seems like yesterday's move set the tone for next days ;
it seems thanks to Trump that it is going up for real in a super bullish trend that wants to break 22K ;
and as BTC just blew 102-103K, we never know what could happen.
More precisely, this seems like a triangle pattern which will either make the price fall hard or keep going up smoothly, which seems more accurate now.
All Time Highs on the Horizon!!!Price is on a Bullish Up trend In a Current Retracement.
This Thesis uses several different concepts. Based off of Market structure, support & resistance, RSI Divergence, Fib lvl's, ICT Concepts,
Daily: Bullish, Price is Rejecting Bullish TL and Testing structure , 61.8 prz (Daily Breaker Block forming)
H4: Bullish, Morning star R Pattern at H4 lvl
H1: Bearish (Wait for price action to return Bullish before entering)
Thesis:
Looking for price to bullish break H4 lvl to order block
and retest back to daily lvl 20595 / previous structure high zone, for bullish entry.
Notes:
price has a overall retracement 61.8 prz
Price rejecting off bullish Trend line
Price rejecting 4H FVG
H4 Hidden Bullish Divergence
Daily Bullish Breaker Block
Cons:
-4H could be a Head and shoulders Pattern if price rejects and doesn't break through Daily lvl 20595
Wait for H1 Time frame and Execution time frames to line up with macro Bullish Trend before Executing!
TP1: 21,150
TP2: 21,468 (ATH)
TP3: 22,242 Stretch Goal (ATH)
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities
The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights.
---
Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ
Inflation and Sentiment
- University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%)
This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts.
- University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8)
The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index.
Labor Market Insights
- US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%)
A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k)
Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle.
- US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%)
Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve Dynamics
- Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled.
This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds.
- Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%.
Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments.
---
Seasonal and Sentiment Factors
Historical Seasonality
December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by:
- **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies.
- **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year.
- **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm.
Investor Sentiment
- The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 55, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains.
---
Revised NASDAQ Outlook
Positives:
1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand.
2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop.
3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability.
Risks:
1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta.
2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing.
3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
US100 Bullish ideaUS100 looks bullish on daily time frame, currently it is retesting the trendline by creating higher low, we can enter the long here and stops loss can be placed as per last low which is 19825.00. Furthermore, there is no divergence in sight in current bullish rally which is an additional confirmation for continuation of the rally.
Why I Took a Short Position on the US100(high risk)Even though I typically avoid shorting indices, especially in the current macroeconomic environment characterized by a resilient labor market and increasing likelihood of a soft landing, my trading decisions are heavily rooted in technical analysis. While the broader economic context leans towards stability, the charts presented a setup that I found compelling enough to take the risk.
The position, admittedly, is high-risk, with a significant probability of hitting my stop-loss. However, I believe that the potential reward justifies the calculated risk, given the structure on the chart. If the stop is triggered but the broader technical context remains unchanged, I am prepared to re-enter the position and risk an additional 2-3 stops. My approach relies on consistency and discipline, so as long as the technical indicators and levels I evaluate continue to align, I am comfortable with this risk.
This trade is more of a strategic decision than a fundamental one. It’s driven by my confidence in the patterns and levels I see, not a bet against the underlying strength of the index or economy. It's a reminder that, sometimes, even in favorable macroeconomic conditions, the charts can tell a different story worth exploring.
us100 longliquidity injections fundamental
I expected a faster movement, now I'm waiting for the inflation data, I'm already at be but in case of values that do not meet expectations I will close before the target
NAS100USD Will Go Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 21,415.8.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 21,013.5 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Sell Nasdaq NFPWe grapped buyside liquidity and shifted to the downside, we left sibi waiting for it to tap there then sell hard this NFP
NAS100USD / TRADING UNDER ATH PRICES AROUND 21,520 / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Breaking the supply zone is expected to lead to an increase in prices, potentially reaching a new all-time high (ATH) , The current price is trading below the ATH level at 21,512.
If the price remains and stabilizes below 21,512, it is expected to decline further , The first expected demand zone is between 21,226 and 21,107 , If the price closes a 4-hour candle below this zone, it is anticipated to decline to the next demand zone between 20,863 and 20,762.
If the ATH level (21,512) is broken, prices are expected to rise and reach a new historical zone between 21,520 and 21,890.
As long as the price remains below the ATH, the market is expected to face downward pressure.
USNAS100 / Downside Momentum Amid Jobs ReportsTechnical Analysis
The price reversed from its ATH, which is 21530, and now has a bearish momentum due to the high pressure from NFP and Unemployment rata reports,
So as long as trades below 21465 and 21530, there will be a bearish trend to touch 21290 and 21220.
To be bullish till 21670, should close at least 1h candle above 21530
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21465
Resistance Levels: 21540, 21670, 21800
Support Levels: 21290, 21150, 20990
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum within News effect
Short Term Update: US 100 Index in Focus Over Non-Farm Payrolls Growth stocks within the US 100 index have sprung back into life this week, after a period of under performance, when compared to industrials and small cap stocks. The US 100 has added around 3% over the previous 4 trading days, supported by a rally in megacap stocks, led by Nvidia, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked positively about the current state of the US economy in a discussion on Wednesday evening. This view has so far been supported by data readings across the week.
Now, with US Non-farm Payrolls due for release this afternoon at 13.30, all eyes are on whether this eagerly awaited reading will show a labour market that reflects a strong economy, while still allowing the Fed to cut interest rates again on December 18th.
Ahead of US Employment Data: Technical Update
As the dust settled on the US 100’s sharp acceleration into the November 11th all-time high, as it was at that time, following the Trump victory in the US election, a correction materialised, as a reaction to over-extended upside extremes.
However, this decline proved to be limited in nature, and buyers were found again around 20309, the November 19th low. Importantly, this also tested the uptrend in price activity evident since August 5th lows, suggesting it may well continue to be a relevant support moving forward.
As we approach what is likely to be the next important market sentiment driver in the shape of the latest payrolls data, price strength has again materialised from the uptrend support, to post new all-time highs at 21512 on December 4th.
While the uptrend, currently at 20849 within today’s price activity, has been confirmed as a possible support focus, equally important is today’s potential resistance level, standing at 21687. This is the upper trendline connecting the highs dating back to August 1st.
So, the levels we may want to watch over the data release are in place, and while it is important to note that closing breaks of these are no guarantee of future price movement, a confirmed breach of support or resistance may result in further price movement in the direction of the break, but this is very much dependant of future price trends.
What are potential resistance levels if 21687 gives way on a closing basis?
Closes above the 21687 trendline resistance would again see new all-time highs posted, so, we can then turn to Fibonacci extension levels to help provide areas of interest where there may be potential for sellers to be encountered.
Using the July 11th to August 5th last sell-off as the measure, the 38.2% extension stands at 22151, and 61.8% point at 23010. Just because trendline resistance breaks have in the past resulted in further price strength is no guarantee it will do so again, but if strength does develop after payrolls and 21687 is breached, these levels could be areas where upside momentum may slow, or even be held.
And Supports?
As we have said earlier, the 20849 uptrend is potentially the first support focus within any negative reaction to the data and closing breaks maybe the catalyst for further price declines.
If such moves do materialise, it's possible it may trigger further price weakness, with the 20309 November 19th low next possible support. If this in turn gives way, it might prompt tests of 19887/19904 support, a combination of November 4th session low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August/December strength.
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