DOW has a full Bull year ahead based on PRESIDENT'S CHEATSHEETDow Jones (DJI) has started the year on a positive note and that is anything but a coincidence. On this 1W chart you can see Dow's price action since the early 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
That happened to be Obama's 1st year of Presidency. As you can see, 2009 was an incredibly bullish year with the index rising more than +60% from the year's bottom.
Four years later in 2013, which was the 1st year of Obama's 2nd term in office, Dow had again a strong year, rising by +25% (naturally the previous term was more aggressive as the market had tremendous upside potential to recover from one of the worst economic crises in history).
Moving forward again 4 years (2017), we can see yet another bullish (+35%) 1st year of Presidency, this time Trump's first term.
Biden also had his fair share of bullish 1st year of Presidency in 2021 (+23%).
The pattern is evident and shows the euphoria the market has when the U.S. President assumes his duties on his 1st year. It also shows that (excluding as mentioned 2009, which was natural to see a stronger recovery) on average it is fair to expect a price increase during the 1st year of around +25% to +30%.
In fact, the price action that led to the current 1st year of Presidency that has just started (Trump's 2nd term), is very similar to the one that preceded Obama's 2nd term (2013). Both formed a Channel Up after the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) was tested and held. That pattern pushed the price higher until the 1st year of Presidency, that found the index on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Even the 1W MACD sequences that preceded this, are similar between the two fractals.
As a result, investors have a strong reason to be bullish in 2025 and if pattern achieves the bear minimum of 2021 (+23%), we can expect to see 51000 by the end of the year.
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