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Wheat (WHT) / US DollarWheat (WHT) / US DollarWheat (WHT) / US Dollar

Wheat (WHT) / US Dollar

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WHTUSD trade ideas

Wheat to continue sideways but in a broader rangeOn Monday, Ukraine struck several Russian ships-turned-submarines, Russia wanted to withdraw from its grain corridor agreement. Earlier today, Turkey has re-emphasized that corridor will remain in place. Both news had major impact easily seen in the Wheat futures charts. I think it will calm for a few weeks ahead now. Random unscheduled news are more likely to be bulish though. Another clue to where the price will go over the coming weeks is in the further-away contracts prices, specifically ZW3 trades roughly 20 dollars above ZW1. As the rollover time approaches, the prices are likely to converge which is bullish for current contracts. In my opinion, the market will remember today and will not go below $822 as it was just reminded of the risks. This means that I am looking for speculative longs near the bottom - that will possible be hit during another market-wide high-volatility news, FED press conference later today.
FX:WHEATFLong
by OrcChieftain
Wheat, why this last raising?My backtests, September and October are not good months for long swing trading, but Im finding some reason from last WASDE reports *****************September release on wheat – U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month – Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs . The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones ******************October release on wheat ***US*** - The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies , domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production. Reductions in both harvested area and yield. Production only minimally higher than last year Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72 Projected ending stocks are lowered ***WORLD*** The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies , consumption, trade, and stocks. reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record Global consumption is reduced on lower food, seed, and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use. World trade is lowered on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered mostly on a reduction for the United States.
FX:WHEATFLong
by giancarlopagliaroli
1
Wheat Rally back on with Russian AnnexWheat surged $60 last night as Russia annouced votes in the local donbas regions they control in Ukraine. Critical to the wheat exports the port in that area also means perhaps sanctions and increased fighting may hurt global supply already under pressure. Adding to momentum is global headline news about beer shortages which adds to the grain rally. As long as these issues persist Wheat may trade aggressively higher as commodites move alot more sharply with the start of the war brining highs of $1300.
EASYMARKETS:WHTUSDLong
by easyMarkets
Wheat - bet on harvest surprises?Technicals: After large rally in the beginning of the year followed by similar drop over the past months, Wheat has been consolidating in 750-850 range. From the technical perspective, I am missing a convincing rejection of the lower lows before a rally can take place. However if the fundamentals were strong enough, they would subsidize for such price action. Fundamentals & seasonality: → Wheat is known to drop in August and September in anticipation of harvest. This is exactly what has been happening, but the markets are likely to either calm down and wait for harvest numbers, or will turn back into rally if the numbers are back. For the moment, the future contracts are priced slightly higher than the present ones which means the market anticipated risk and price growth in the future. → A lot of high-yielding regions of Ukraine are either occupied or under siege. Also, the logistics is disrupted in the region. → Fertilizer prices are an issue. Catalysts: It will all come down to harvest. Price can go nuclear or it can continue sideways. I am personally looking to get a long position somewhere after a technical setup arises - either a strong rejection of the lows, or reasonably strong breakout of the consolidation range high.
FX:WHEATFLong
by OrcChieftain
Wheat, what do you doTechically speaking, my perspective to go LONG: 1. Touched a strong rising trendline (white oblique line) 2. Price on 0.618 Fibonacci level 3. There are a lot of supports below current price than resistances above (horizontal red lines on charts) 4. Price is close to important volume cluster 5. Buying divergence in RSI indicator 6. Daily volume falling during the last downtrend 7. August is a good month for swing trading WHEAT (not the same for CORN and SOY) as of my custom backtesting made with python over last 50 years The only one thing i see opposite to my technical odds for a long opportunity is fundamnetal and related to agreement in the wheat export from Ukraine, more supply less shortage, but the market coud have included this during the last drop. As per my backtesting, would to go long in August for a 5-day swing trading duration, before future expiration of 17 August due to wheat's contango
FX:WHEATFLong
by giancarlopagliaroli
Wheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply surpassed demandWheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply has now surpassed the demand. Ukraine is now shipping wheat from Moldova and shipping out via train etc Russia is supplying Ukraine wheat from Mauripol Russia is supplying wheat to Bandladesh and a number of African countries Australia has had 20% bumper record crop being on the top 3 wheat producers Price will go back to normal now it has almost been 6 months since the war has started
FX:WHEATFShort
by smartestcookieinthejar
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BLACKBULL:USWHEAT.F
by Sunstorminvest