Wheat Watching I've been watching Wheat and Soy for a couple of weeks here as I've never traded them. I feel like I have a decent enough understanding of how they move to attempt and entry today.
Got a bullish signal with price action context for a potential long trade, looking for retracement entry.
WHTUSD trade ideas
Wheat, what do you doTechically speaking, my perspective to go LONG:
1. Touched a strong rising trendline (white oblique line)
2. Price on 0.618 Fibonacci level
3. There are a lot of supports below current price than resistances above (horizontal red lines on charts)
4. Price is close to important volume cluster
5. Buying divergence in RSI indicator
6. Daily volume falling during the last downtrend
7. August is a good month for swing trading WHEAT (not the same for CORN and SOY) as of my custom backtesting made with python over last 50 years
The only one thing i see opposite to my technical odds for a long opportunity is fundamnetal and related to agreement in the wheat export from Ukraine, more supply less shortage, but the market coud have included this during the last drop.
As per my backtesting, would to go long in August for a 5-day swing trading duration, before future expiration of 17 August due to wheat's contango
WHEATFUTURES potential for further dips! | 21st March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 1971.42 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 1031.01 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading under our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias.
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Wheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply surpassed demandWheat Heading back to $700-800 range, supply has now surpassed the demand.
Ukraine is now shipping wheat from Moldova and shipping out via train etc
Russia is supplying Ukraine wheat from Mauripol
Russia is supplying wheat to Bandladesh and a number of African countries
Australia has had 20% bumper record crop being on the top 3 wheat producers
Price will go back to normal now it has almost been 6 months since the war has started
Wheat:Risky tradeYes initially I wanted to wait for the deeper dip but I am liking this level here so will put in a very small position for the correction. Note its a small position due to the riskiness of the trade. Put a buy stop slightly above. Literally catching daggers!
If it works its a 2.92R ....well its actually 20% of normal R!
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WHEAT F DAILY TREND FOLLOWINGTaking into consideration the situation in Ukraine who is a big contributor in the global wheat marketm I suggest a good trend follow set up on the Daily chart. Approching that crucial MA50 and Fib retracement 50 %
Buying, 0.5% Capital STOP FIRST touch on the MA 50
TP 1 40 % of the position 1092.26
TP 2 40 % Position. 1239
TP3 TBD later
Wheat back at Key $1000 levelWheat has been the most volatile commodity since the war started and we have fallen back to $1000 as peace talks improved.
Similar to Oil though peace will not fix the supply/demand issues with Ukraine and Russia accounting for 30% of wheat exports.
The consolidation period is likely over and if we can get some positive price action more buyers are likely to come back to a very tight supply market.
A close below $1000 would hurt bullish sentiment.
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Wheat futures, potential for bounce! | 23rd March 2022Prices are approaching a pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 1032.19 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 1105.47 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred.
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Wheatfutures potential for a further dips! 28th March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by our descending trendline resistance. We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our sell entry at 1107.77 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take profit at 1034.89 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Prices are trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Wheat Futures potential for short! | 25th March 2022Prices have recently broken out of our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a short from our sell entry at 1102.34 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our Take Profit at 1095.71 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Ichimoku is supporting our bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Wheat futures, potential for bounce! | 23rd March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1099.97 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 1163.13 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. RSI is forecasting the bullish momentum and also Ichimoku is forecasting the bounce, further supporting our bullish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Pure technical!!Now I could bore you with the fancy fundamentals of how the war is causing supply chain bottlenecks for wheat or how shipping in the black sea has been disrupted and all. I could say that which is true but thats not why I took this trade, this is just a good old kijun bounce looking for a recovery. Just technical, no mainstream fundamentals here kkk. Small portion again, risk management is all in all:)
WHEATFUTURES potential for a pullback! 22nd March 2022Prices are abiding to an ascending trendline. We see the potential for a pullback from our sell entry at 1155.76 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 1102.70 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is portraying bearish divergence, further supporting our bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.