OIL / WTI PoV - LONGThe analysis of the current oil price highlights the $65/66 range as a critical level for a potential rally. After a period of consolidation and corrections in recent weeks, oil seems to have found strong support around these levels, with prices oscillating between $65 and $66 per barrel. These levels represent an important liquidity zone, as in the past, the price has found support here, suggesting that there could be an opportunity for a bullish rebound if the price manages to remain stable above this threshold.
A rally above the $65/66 level could be supported by several fundamental factors, including improved demand prospects, a reduction in global inventories, and potential policies from OPEC. If demand for oil increases, especially with economic recoveries in certain regions or a rise in industrial production globally, there could be further support for prices. Additionally, OPEC+'s stance in the production-limiting agreement and potential supply cuts could keep the market tight, pushing prices higher.
Geopolitical dynamics also play a significant role in determining the direction of oil. Any tensions or disruptions in supply from key producing countries, such as those in the Middle East, could serve as catalysts for further price increases. Another factor that could support prices is the depreciation of the dollar, which typically benefits oil, as the commodity is priced in dollars.
However, if the price fails to maintain stability above the $65/66 level, we might see a new correction phase, with prices possibly retreating to lower levels. A move away from these levels could mark the beginning of a new bearish phase, with the risk of prices sliding back towards $60 per barrel or even lower if demand weakens or if there are supply excesses in the market.
In summary, the $65/66 level is crucial for the price of oil. Maintaining or closing above these levels could pave the way for a rally, while failure to do so could lead to further price weakening. With OPEC+ policies playing a key role in balancing the market, the next few months will be critical in determining the future direction of oil prices.
