USOIL - Short Term Buys Using Structure & Fibonacci A complete walkthrough of a short-term buying opportunity on Oil using support and resistance to confirm our decision along with the use of our Fibonacci tools to help choose out profit targets.
If you have any questions or comments please leave them below.
Akil
WTI trade ideas
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher.
In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up.
China's massive stimulus policy
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic.
The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer.
New developments in the Middle East
Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.
Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production.
The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously.
However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD.
In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD
Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
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USOIL has made new LH The price has got a rejection from fib point 0.618 moreover if you take a look at the last 2 circled LHs you will observe the same bearish candle formation after which the price falls sharply so wait for that candle in this scenario also and then take the short entry can be taken by putting SL above that candle or you can also put SL at fib point .786
m30 retest week support below yesterday highm30 retest week support below yesterday high
last m30 rejected week resistance today test again??
m30 Choch from US session back test 200ma H4m30 Choch from US session back test 200ma H4
1.5 Ratio first
USOIL 1DTechnically, oil prices have bounced back to the upside after hitting their weekly support, breaking the downtrend line on the daily and currently hitting a resistance. If it passes through the zone, you must wait to return to this zone for the purchase transaction. And if it cannot cross this area, according to the picture, we are waiting for a purchase around 70.400!
USOIL Technical Outlook - 4-Hour Chart AnalysisKey Analysis and Components:
Wyckoff Accumulation Phase:
The current price action suggests that USOIL is in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation.
After a preliminary supply (PSY) and a buying climax (BC), the market experienced a secondary test (ST) and a shakeout (SOW in Phase B), confirming the accumulation phase.
The upthrust (UT) in Phase B could suggest a false breakout, which typically results in a test of lower levels, marking the transition into Phase C.
Elliott Wave Count:
The market completed a potential five-wave structure (v) as part of the larger cycle, which topped near 73.25.
The corrective wave structure is unfolding, marked by waves a-b-c, which suggests further downside before completing the correction.
The anticipated wave C retracement could potentially bring the price towards key Fibonacci support levels, likely around the 50% (69.43) and 0.618 (68.54) retracement levels.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance levels are marked by the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) zones near 73.85 and 71.64. These levels serve as potential turning points for any future upward attempts.
Support levels are defined around the POC (Point of Control) at 69.42 and the Fibonacci retracement levels. The 68.54 level acts as a critical invalidation point for the overall bullish scenario.
Point of Control and Volume Profile:
The POC (69.42) highlights the price area with the highest traded volume, indicating strong market interest and likely support.
The chart further emphasizes equilibrium at the 0.5 (69.43) level, a midpoint that balances the market between premium and discount pricing zones.
Potential Bearish Scenario:
The red projected path indicates a possible continuation of bearish movement. This aligns with the corrective structure expected in Phase C of Wyckoff, which could see the market testing lower levels before accumulation concludes.
Should prices break below the 68.54 invalidation level, a deeper correction may follow, targeting the 65.23 zone, marked as the premium area on the chart.
Market Conclusion (W Close):
The W Close (Weekly Close) is marked on September 29, 2024, and could play a pivotal role in determining the market's direction. The transition from Phase B to Phase C would likely unfold over the next week, giving traders insight into whether the accumulation phase is nearing completion or if further downside is likely.
Conclusion:
The USOIL market is currently in an accumulation phase, with a possible downtrend in the short term as prices work through the corrective structure in Phase B. Key levels to watch include 69.43 for potential support and 73.85 for resistance. Invalidation of this bullish accumulation occurs if prices drop below 68.54. The expected conclusion of the corrective wave could lead to renewed bullish momentum once the market tests lower accumulation levels. Traders should remain vigilant as the market transitions through these phases.
WTI OIL Still bullish, targeting the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually gave us the 2 green day streak we wanted in order to turn bullish, as per our suggestion 2 weeks ago (September 10, see chart below):
Event though it marginally broke below April's Channel Down, the buying pressure it has build is similar to all 3 major Bullish Legs since June 2023. Notice how the 1D RSI forms the same Bullish Divergence (Channel Up).
However due to the lower bottom than the one we expected, we have to change our Target to 76.00, which represents a +16.60% rise from the bottom, similar to the smaller Bullish Leg of the three that started on the June 04 2024 Low.
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What Will Happen to Crude Oil Prices?When the USDWTI 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that price movements continue above the support zone. As long as the Crude Oil price does not break below the 68.60 level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 70.38 level may break above the 71.78 level and target the 75.82 level.
USOIL / TRADING BELOW TURNING LEVEL - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
July Decline: The significant drop of 15.34% indicates a bearish trend, which could be attributed to various factors such as market corrections, economic conditions, or changes in consumer behavior.
August Recovery: The rise of 11.74% suggests a potential recovery or rebound, possibly driven by positive news, increased demand, or market adjustments. However, this increase was followed by another decline within the same month.
Second August Decline: The 18.23% drop following the initial recovery may indicate market volatility or the market's inability to sustain upward momentum. This could also signal investor uncertainty or reactions to external factors.
September Projection: The forecasted decline of 4.66% in September suggests that the overall trend remains negative. This could imply a continuing lack of confidence in the market, or it may reflect seasonal trends affecting prices.
Technical analysis:
The level at 71.51 serves as a key resistance. If the price remains below this level, a decline towards 68.80 is expected. If this level is breached, the next support could be around 67.19.
Conversely, if the price breaks above 71.51, it may indicate bullish momentum, with targets at 73.99 and then 76.10.
UPWARD TARGET : 73.99 , 76.10 .
DOWNWARD TARGET : 68.80 , 67.19.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Last short term buy.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.729, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 25.961) as it pulled back to the 4H MA50 intra day. The fact that it held, suggests that it remains the short term support of this uptrend that is targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 72.50) where so far we have had three straight rejections since August.
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US OIL Further Dip Buys..Slow Momentum is growing on on Oil Markets on some middle east tension sentiment / Fed cut bets increasing.
Ideal trajectory would be a continuation of such movement(s).
BEARISH BLACK SWAN HARMONIC PATTERNwe can see in the chart has formed BEARISH BLACK SWAN HARMONIC PATTERN as well as breakout the neckline. we can get sell opportunity from mentioned zone . its not financial advice just for education purposes.
Recap of my todays trades, Silver and WTISilver short did not go, but WTI ID reversal from HOW/ HOD played out nicely mid 3rd hour... nice reversal into downtrend on high timeframe, i took it a bit early, but then held through nicely to H8 low, almost to PDL, still it was going even further
Recap of my todays trades, Silver and WTISilver short did not go, but WTI ID reversal from HOW/ HOD played out nicely mid 3rd hour... nice reversal into downtrend on high timeframe, i took it a bit early, but then held through nicely to H8 low, almost to PDL, still it was going even further
Highlights this week: RBA interest rate, US GDP, US PCE, ChinesTuesday:
RBA interest rate decision at 04:30 AM GMT where the market is expecting that the interest rates will remain stable at 4.35%. In the event however that we have a surprise cut by the Reserve bank then it might create minor losses for the Aussie Dollar in the short term.
Thursday:
US GDP growth at 12:30 PM GMT for the second quarter is expected to double and reach 3%. If this rather optimistic expectations are met then it might boost the Dollar while hurting many of its instruments traded against it.
Friday:
U.S core PCE at 12:30 PM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to remain stable at 0.2% month over month but if any surprise is seen at the time of publication would most probably create volatility in the majority of the dollar pairs.
Monday:
NBS manufacturing PMI at 01:30 AM GMT where the expectations are for an increase reaching 50 points. The NBS is larger than the Caixin and is focusing more on larger state-owned firms. If the expectations are correct then it would mean that the state-owned firms might be performing better, given the actual figure is above the 50-point level indicating that the manufacturing sector of the NBS survey might still be expanding and probably might have some effect on production-related products like oil, natural gas, silver, etc.
Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 AM GMT. The figure for the month of September is expected to increase by 0.6 points reaching 51. Caixin PMI is more focused on the export sector and small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) and a reading of anything below the 50 point mark would indicate that these companies have yet to recover fully which could result in affecting the prices of various manufacturing related instruments.
USOIL, daily
Oil prices steadied after posting their largest weekly gain this year on a weaker dollar and concerns of rising tension between Israel and Hezbollah would engulf the whole region in war. Israel was attacked by Hezbollah, sparking fears of possible oil supply disruptions from the region which pumps a third of the world's oil.
Moves to stimulate economic growth in China, where short-term interest rates were lowered, sent buyers into US stocks. A large chunk of a recent 9% rally in Brent was fuelled by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. But surging diesel and U.S.-China trade fears have capped gains. Oil prices may trade in a range before breaking lower with focus on demand worries that predate supply crisis.
On the technical side, the price has made an aggressive pullback to around $70 price area pushing the Stochastic oscillator in the extreme overbought levels hinting that a bearish correction move might be seen in the coming sessions given that there is a new catalyst in the market. Currently the 50-day moving average is trading well below the 100-day moving average validating the overall bearish trend in the market, despite the recent minor bullish move, while the area of $72 is still the major technical resistance area on the chart consisting of the 38.2% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level and the area of price reaction in early and late August.
OIL TODAYI expect reverse to down.
i will wait for change structure on M15, H1 and open sell order.
This is my view
Has crude turned a corner?Both Brent and WTI were a touch weaker in early trade this morning. But both contracts have put in impressive rallies over the past fortnight. Oil prices plunged following the US Labor Day holiday on Monday 9th September. The sell-off saw front-month WTI break below $65 per barrel to trade at its lowest level since May last year. Front-month Brent hit its lowest level since December 2021. Since then, Brent and WTI have tacked on 8% and 10% respectively as of Friday’s close. While impressive, the rally has been relatively slow and steady, rather than an explosive one that could have been expected, coming as it did from incredibly oversold conditions. The move has seen the daily MACDs turn significantly higher, although both remain oversold. The question now is if the bottom is in for crude oil. If so, then pull-backs may be buying opportunities. But it’s probably still too early to declare the ‘all clear’ for crude. Traders should keep a close eye on how the next pull-back develops. If it proves relatively shallow before heading up again, then oil may have finally turned a corner. But if it retraces more than around 50% of recent gains, then a retest of this month’s lows may be on the cards.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 70.11 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 68.26 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 73.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Oil Is going to see a heavy fall from hereIt is a big retracement for oil so we can see huge fall in this in coming weeks
crude oil sell crude oil sell targeting 64 with a small stop lose since i have another scenario which is shorting again if i got stop out from a higher price around 73.5
see u at 64 i will keep partial to the hell at 55
