WTI recovered insignificantly, bearish factors prevailedWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL opened down to 68.94 USD/barrel as of the time this article was completed.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Thursday that global crude oil demand is cooling while output outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ( OPEC+) continues to increase.
According to IEA data, the organization predicts non-OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025.
The fact that supply is continuously expanding while market demand is not enough to compensate is the most noticeable pressure on the oil market at the present time.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 15% this quarter on concerns about falling demand. The International Energy Agency said that global consumption growth in the first half of the year reached its lowest level since the epidemic. In that context, OPEC+, an organization of oil producing countries, postponed plans to relax supply restrictions, and Libya's oil output continued to decline.
About supporting factors
With the recent conflict in Libya and a series of geopolitical crises in recent years, the market is not without upside potential, although these factors have not yet had a profound enough impact on the market. common school.
Combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting next week after the labor market showed signs of slowing and traders are more optimistic that policymakers policy will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Lower borrowing costs could support economic growth and increased energy demand.
These may provide negligible fundamental support in the near term. However, the oil market needs to pay more attention to Supply - Demand and OPEC+ factors.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil recovered but remained in a long-term downtrend noted by the price channel and pressure from EMA21.
Crude oil's fall below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart would open the door for a new bearish cycle with the target then at $67.25 in the short term, more so than $65.2.
On the other hand, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, the downtrend remains dominant, but maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci level will be the factor that pushes it to recover a little further with resistance near highest at 70.9USD.
Looking at the overall picture, the trend of WTI crude oil is to decrease in price with technical levels that will be noticed again as follows.
Support: 68.74 – 67.25USD
Resistance: 70.28 – 70.90USD
