USOIL: Downside Potential RemainsUSOIL still has room to move down, based on my personal strategy and market analysis. Traders should assume their own risk when considering this viewpoint. This is not financial advice.
WTI trade ideas
Oil baby, common you can do it! Do it!FA: Historically, when the Fed rate is lowered in the U.S., there is one very simple pattern - the collapse of commodities!
Of course, there are nuances related to the rate of downgrade....
Prices do not start falling at once... most often there is a time lag from 2-3 months to 8 months.
It is important to understand the following...
The USA controls oil prices (directly or indirectly - but the fact remains). Oil reserves in the states are low but last report showed very nice numbers (actual -0.8M vs forecast -2.7M)
Now catch the train of thought:
US will start a cycle of rate cuts- US has more than enough oil reserves - historically rate cuts are a drop in oil prices
TA: After aggressive movement till 4h gap, price went down as expected with first MS, then price went up to test BTS zone and made second shift (BoS) and came into bullish 4h fvg. Now there are 3 options:
1 - move higher till 4h fvg into premium , rebalance and final move till EQL at 71.4$ area
2 - fail 73.3 area from market opening with potential move downwards till EQL
3 - Breaking above 4h FVG with target at 77.55$, this option can be considered only after closing above 4h fvg on 1h+ time frame with candle's body
$77.78 possible!?From here stops looks narrow.
R/R BIG.
Maybe some stop hunt kinda thing can happen..
Trade your way...
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
The BB lower band is nearby so USOIL is in the oversold territory. Thus, despite the downtrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bullish reaction from the support line below and a move up towards the target at around 76.95.
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WTI OIL formed 1st 1W Death Cross in 4.5 years!The last long-term signal (July 09, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) was a rejection (sell) at the top of the former Triangle (Lower Highs trend-line):
The price not only broke below both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the bottom of the Triangle. The result this week is the formation of a 1W Death Cross, the first one since the COVID crash back in March 2020!
Naturally this is a strong bearish signal, which will be confirmed if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line. If it does we may see a fatal market collapse, as this is a cyclical signal (observe the Sine Waves). In May 2009, it was invalid as the Housing Crisis preceded it, in November 2014 it was halfway through the sell-off of the Oil Crisis and Chinese economic slowdown and in March 2020 it came earlier relative to the previous two but still after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line.
As a result, this trend-line is of the utmost importance currently and only if broken (and close a 1M candle below it) can we consider a similar collapse. If it does, we expect at least $45.00, on the way to the Symmetrical Support Zone test.
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Crude Oil Quarterly Will crude oil signal another INFLATIONARY cycle OR a DEFLATIONARY bust?
We are entering quarterly defined support zone, currently on BRINK OF COLLAPSE.
I DO NOT want to see quarterly closes BELOW 67$.
#inflation #recession #energy #crudeoil #oil
USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders!
Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer.
Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.
China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year.
Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC.
However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources.
From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Intraday Bearish Confirmation
Update for our yesterday's setup on WTI Crude Oil.
The price successfully retested a broken structure.
Our intraday bearish confirmation is a breakout of a support line
of a bearish flag pattern on an hourly time frame.
The fall will continue now at least to 72.1
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USOILWe're initiating a short position on USOIL, targeting potential downside in the current market environment. The setup aligns with our analysis, suggesting a possible decline ahead. Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss levels are clearly outlined, ensuring a disciplined approach to managing this trade. Stay alert to any market shifts that could impact price direction.
USOIL SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS From our previous top down analysis when i call for the first and second drop of TVC:USOIL when it was still trading at $81/barrel . We might see further down side to $64 key zone
WTI LongSeeing that WTI has held steady at the 4h FVG I decided to open a long up to the point of interest where the intermediate high is at 15min.
Risk: 1%.
Trade management: I will take partial profit (60%) at the first swing high.
CRUDE OIL RISKY SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL went down after
The breakout just as we predicted
But is now making a bullish
Correction so after the retest
Of the horizontal resistance
Of 74.50$ we will be expecting
A potential bearish pullback
SHORT🔥
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Crude Oil Technical AnalysisWhen the USDWTI 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that price movements continue in a downward trend. As long as the Crude Oil price cannot exceed the level of 75.28, it is evaluated that in price movements below the level of 74.38, it can break the level of 72.90 and retreat to the level of 71.47.
USOIL Potential Downtrend Line Breakout At $73.93 03.09.2024Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
Us30 ubdate.CRUDE OIL (#WTI) Bearish Outlook Explained 🛢
📉Crude Oil will most likely keep falling soon.
The price violated a key daily horizontal support and closed below that.
We can anticipate a bearish continuation at least to 71.9
Look for selling the market from a supply area based on a broken structure and a falling trend line.
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Daily time frame.
Do ur own research also, give you opinion in coment section.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 75.42
1st Support: 72.62
1st Resistance: 77.51
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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OIL SELLSTargeting 1:2.5 position. Break and retest of key level Expecting volume to push price further down
usoil possible shortbearish market structure
buys are pull backs at this point
expect mid-weel reversals
OIL September Trading Plans / Range StructureTypically Markets vary in range over time across all timeframes.
It's important to track this and use key price rejection levels (price action) for entries and exits accordingly.
US OILPair : Crude Oil
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Impulse Correction
#CrudeoilCrude is still in deciding zone one watch given lvl or use for there analysis purpose. No buy /sell is being recommended
US CRUDE OIL(WTI): Massive BreakoutUSOIL has dropped below an important daily support cluster, which has now turned into resistance.
It is likely that a bearish trend will persist, with the next support level at 71.78.
