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WTI1! trade ideas

'Confluence Profile 500K' (Order Flow Footprint + PA)"10pt STOP"NYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Family in this video I went into a gr8 in depth breakdown of a 5-6R trade that took place today during NY session SHORT on Crude OIL. Paying very close attention to the order flow footprint all the while observing very closely how PA is setting up will help us to develop the mastery of the 'Confluence Profile 500K' (Order Flow Footprint + PA) "10pt STOP". Just think about this...... December of 2024 price moved on average of 120pts during NY session. (5am-2pm) PST. -We know we're not going to catch the whole 120pts so were going to focus our attention on cutting that point ratio in half and catch 50-60pts with a 10Pt STOP.... -Granting us 5-6R in our Favor!! Now this is the RISK we face, WE HAVE ONLY 10PTS of pre-determined RISK. So, the 'Confluence Profile 500K' will consist of the (Order Flow Footprint + PA) to give us the highest probability ratio of entering a position with only 10pts to RISK & this is our journey to Master the 10pt STOP w/ a 50-60pt Target!!! Let's go 2 work. Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 4th consecutive bull bar on the daily chart and it’s the biggest of the 4. We are close to a bear trend line from the triangle (depending on how you want to draw it) and I rather think this is the climactic end of the rally for now and we pull back more. I can be totally wrong and market breaks above the trend line to retest the August high above 76 but trend lines are support/resistance until broken. Neutral because I think it’s too high to buy and too early to short. The close above 73 was really strong though. comment: Bulls with a strong break above the November high and they closed above 73. We are now in a dead zone between 72.35 and 74 (or the area around the bear trend line). We could see a bigger pull-back down to 72 or 71 before we test the bear trend line. Longs in the dead zone are bad trades, no matter how you put it. I do think the breakout is strong enough to wait for pull-backs and go long then. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 74 bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side now but buying this close to the bear trend line is probably unwise. Many bulls will probably want to see a decent pull-back and form a better channel up. Any pull-back should stay above 70/71 though or more could see it as a bull trap like all other highs above 72 were for 3 months now. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears had to give up once market continued above 72.35. Can they hold short and scale in higher with a stop 78? Not really. They will never reach even 1x their risk, so we will probably have to wait and see where the interest in buying vanishes and market stalls. Bears want to start shorting as close to the bear trend line as possible and if we just use the July & October highs, we could go up to 75. Bears really don’t have much here. Best they can hope for is to stall the market below 75 and wait for more bulls to take profits. Invalidation is above 74. short term: Bullish. Buying near the 2h 20ema or most recent bull trend line is reasonable. Targets above are 74 and maybe 75. I will wait for a better pull-back to buy. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Long since 10 a.m. CET. Strong 1h bull bar closing at the high tick and immediate follow through. Market never looked back.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Oil (UCO) - Short Term Bull - Swing Trade AMEX:UCO NYMEX:CL1! Here's the details of my trade Long on Oil (CL1!) - Position in UCO.... Daily Chart: - Falling Wedge Pattern - Break of Resistance Line Dec 11th - Retest of Resistance Line 3x - Inverted Head and Shoulders Formation - Break above Inv H&S Neckline Fundamental Support: - TBH, for oil I rely 90% on the chart formations. Fundamental data for oil fluctuates nearly everyday, and can be difficult to pinpoint any reliable correlation between fundamental data and news to price movements - However, major news/fundamentals are considered...OPEC announcements, wars and possible supply disruptions, etc - For this trade, I'm solely looking at the chart and will mention in the comments if any fundamental data impacts the trade Economic Data & News - Much news about China's economic stimulus and whether it will drive demand is still in debate. Recent news shows China's GDP will be 4.9% for 2024 and similar growth is expected in 2025. However, there's still a need for more time and data to truly see the impacts - Trump's tariffs are in question as to what and if he will implement them and what impacts it will have on the US and other major countries. For this trade this is not relevant, but more information keeping on top of. Target: - Entry $69.50 CL1! - Inverted Head and Shoulders - Head $68.50 - Neckline $70.50 - Target 72.50 - Stop: A break back below $69.50 - Inv Head and Shoulders formation is 8 Days - Estimated time of breakout move is 2/3 formation time therefore ~5 days to target Risks: - Low trading volumes during the holiday period do not support the transition to bullishness for oil - Supply/Demand news that could have a negative impact on oil prices - Economic data coming from China that stimulus is not working and growth is continuing to slow - Failure to hold above the Inverted H&S neckline Overall: Oil is not my favorite asset to trade due to fluctuating news releases and the difficulty of interpreting the supply and demand. However, the breakout of both a falling wedge and inverted head and shoulders are both high win % patterns...74% and 89% respectively, that I have taken a small position in my portfolio because the opportunity is there and it challenges my trading and depth of knowledge in oil. My Position: 1 Call Option in UCO (2x Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil) $25 Strike, Current Price $27.55 Expiration Friday Jan 10th Average Price is $1.65 a contract Investment $165 Target $2.65-$4.65 (1-3:1 Profit Loss Ratio) Stop .80 Potential Loss -$85 Potential Gain $100-$300
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jaytmarquardt
Crude Oil January Futures: Bullish Option Trade SetupBuilding upon my prior analysis, where I held a bearish outlook on Crude Oil January Futures , I now present a contrasting bullish perspective. While I had previously emphasized the confidentiality of the stop-loss level for short trades, this setup focuses on a call option strategy aligned with my expectations of upward momentum in the market. For this trade, I have chosen the 6000 strike call option . The optimal entry point for this position is below ₹234.20 , providing a favorable risk-reward ratio. As of this writing, the current market quote (best offer) stands at ₹186.00 , offering an attractive entry opportunity for bullish traders. My target for this position is set at ₹468.40 , which I anticipate achieving by the contract's expiry on 15th January 2025. Key Notes: This trade is based on my personal analysis and market perspective. It is important to emphasize that this is not a trade recommendation for the public. The stop-loss level remains confidential and forms an integral part of my risk management approach. Disclaimer: Trading in options and futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This analysis is solely my personal view and is shared for informational purposes. Perform your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by IndexAce
HTF Daily Range EQ Level $71.75, Should we start to look SHORT?NYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Lets pay very close attn. to CRUDE OIL . As price is nearing HTF Daily Consolidation EQ Level $71.75 Per Barrel. We have to pay very close attn. to the ORDER FLOW Footprint to make sure we are in favor. I'm not 100% SHORT from the EQ Level $71.75 due to we have a Un-Mitigated Daily Supply Zone above. As I mentioned before we'll watch the O/F FP to make our best call for entry. I'll keep post as PA develops. Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!
by TreyHighPwr
Crude Oil Eating Up Time - Plate almost emptyPrice bounced many times at the Green Support-Zone. It's the same level where the Huge Pendulums Fork Center-Line is (white-dashed). Next, we have the Yellow Fork. Price traded outside the L-MLH, bounced a couple times at the Support-Zone and eat up time. But now, I think the "Plate" is almost empty. Why? Price arrived at a decision point, a confluence point. This confluence point is where the Warning-Line and Price intersect. To me, a Long Trade is more likely than a Short. - world wide tensions - so many bounces at the Support-Zone, they won't let price go down much - price has not re-tested the L-MLH of the Yellow Pitchfork As this is a very long term play, it's obvious that this Chart/Idea would serve to build a position, rather than using it as a simple trade.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Trading Plan: WTI Crude OilBased on my proprietary indicators, I maintain a bearish view on WTI Crude Oil. I am anticipating a downside target of ₹5800 (target open until 15th January 2025). Current Position: Holding short positions in MCX Crude Oil January 2025 expiry futures from ₹6025 levels. Intend to add more shorts if prices move to higher levels. Risk Management: Stop-loss and risk parameters are carefully planned but not disclosed here for strategic reasons. Position sizing is aligned with my overall risk appetite and trading capital. Disclaimer: This trading plan represents my personal views and trading decisions and is shared for informational purposes only. Trading in crude oil futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Readers should not consider this as financial advice and must conduct their own research or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Past performance of proprietary indicators is not indicative of future results.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by IndexAce
Crude Oil Price Set for a Pullback - Consider Short Positions Ne Key Insights: Crude Oil prices have been under pressure recently due to oversupply concerns amid a slowdown in global demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in major oil-producing regions, are also creating uncertainty. Current market sentiment tends to lean bearish as economic indicators suggest weakening growth, especially in key markets like China. Traders should be cautious for potential further declines in price as recent patterns indicate a possible reversal. - Price Targets: For short positions, I suggest targeting the following: T1 = 66.50, T2 = 64.00 with stop levels at S1 = 71.50 and S2 = 72.00. This setup reflects a bearish outlook, allowing for a strategic entry while providing ample risk management. - Recent Performance: Crude Oil has experienced a notable decline, with prices falling from recent highs. The current price around 70.65 reflects a significant support level being tested. A continuing downtrend emerged after a brief period of consolidation, suggesting further downside potential. - Expert Analysis: Experts generally believe that Crude Oil faces substantial headwinds. Analysts cite that rising inventories and a lack of significant OPEC+ intervention may exacerbate downward pressure. Market sentiment is largely bearish, with traders expecting more volatility as economic data releases unfold. - News Impact: Recent reports indicate increased production from the U.S. shale sector is contributing to the oversupply scenario. Additionally, investor sentiment has been affected by mixed signals from central banks regarding interest rates, which could impact economic growth and consequently oil demand. Keep an eye on upcoming economic reports and geopolitical developments as they may influence short-term movements in the market.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Supply Glut to Weigh Down on WTI Crude Prices in 2025Outlook for crude oil prices in 2025 is a complex interplay of various factors. China’s fiscal & monetary policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC+ strategies, and geopolitical developments will collectively sway oil prices. For now, the outlook for 2025 remains bearish. Analysts expect persistent oversupply, driven by rising non-OPEC+ production. Demand growth will remain tepid. T RUMP’S PRO-OIL STANCE TO DRIVE PRICES LOWER Trump’s pro-oil stance is expected to pressure oil prices by increasing US energy production in an already oversupplied market. In his victory speech, Trump vowed to halve energy costs by maximizing domestic US production, calling its reserves “liquid gold.” His plans include expanding drilling on federal lands, easing lease access, and fast-tracking energy infrastructure. In 2023, federal lands accounted for 26% of US oil output. Exploration & production slowed under the Biden administration due to reduced lease sales, higher royalties, and bond requirements. Source: Visual Capitalist & U.S. Department of the Interior – Bureau of Land Management During Trump’s first term, federal land lease issuances averaged 1.62 million acres annually compared to 138k acres under Biden, marking a whopping 91% drop. Trump’s first term saw US oil output rise by a record 3 million bpd, the largest increase under any administration. A second Trump term and a “Drill, Baby, Drill” mantra is expected to boost oil production. US producers require an average oil price of USD 64 a barrel for profitable drilling as per the Dallas Fed Energy Survey . However, reduced regulation, streamlined approvals, tax incentives, & potential reversals of Biden-era policies could lower production costs & encourage more drilling. TRUMP’S TRADE & GEOPOLITICAL POLICIES TO WEIGH DOWN ON OIL PRICES Escalating trade friction risks remain high, as Trump’s tariffs warnings on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China have fuelled uncertainty in global trade. Retaliatory measures, like those seen during 2018, could resurface. Rising supply and shrinking demand will press prices lower. For example, Chinese buyers shunned US crude due to tariff risks, widening the WTI-Brent discount from USD 3/b to over USD 11/b. However, with China’s share of US crude exports dropping from 25% in early 2018 to 7% in June 2024, spread divergence will be less pronounced. Source: ING Research Trump promises to swiftly end the Ukraine-Russia war and reduce tensions in the Middle East. For now, the specifics remain unclear. Success in easing geopolitical risks will significantly reduce the oil market’s “war-risk” premium, potentially driving prices even lower. Conversely, Trump’s staunch support for Israel and a hawkish stance on Iran may exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. In his first term, he re-imposed sanctions in 2018 that led to a sharp drop in Iranian oil exports. Under Biden, these sanctions remained but were loosely enforced, allowing Iran to boost output to 3.4m bpd from 2.5m bpd in early 2023. Trump’s return could bring stricter enforcement against Iran, potentially removing 1m bpd from the market. However, with most Iranian exports now directed to China, disrupting these flows may prove challenging. ING analysts expect Iranian supply to stabilize at 3.3m bpd through 2025. OPEC+ REMAINS WARY OF TRUMP’S SECOND TERM OPEC+ in its latest meeting delayed the phased return of 2.2m bpd of supply from January to April and extended some cuts through 2026. While these measures are expected to slightly narrow the surplus production in 2025, continued output growth from non-OPEC+ will weigh on prices. US oil production has surged by 11% between 2022 and 2024 to 21.6m bpd, eroding OPEC+ market share to its record low of 48% in 2024 from 55% in 2016 when the group was formed. OPEC+ fears a further rise in US output under Trump, which could diminish its ability to sustain prices. The extended cuts of OPEC+ in 2025 risk further declines in its market share. Prolonged low prices will shrink OPEC+ producers' oil revenues and increase the risk of disagreements within the cartel. Disagreements will result in OPEC members supplying more crude in breach of their production cuts. CHINA SHIFTING AWAY FROM CRUDE WITH WIDESPREAD EV & LNG TRUCK ADOPTION Deflationary pressures, persistent property market crisis and a rapid shift to EVs & LNG trucks are dampening crude demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer. It has been the key driver of global demand growth for two decades. According to China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI), Chinese oil demand is projected to peak at 770 million tonnes in 2025. This is driven by growing adoption of EV, LNG trucks, and high-speed rail. Sluggish oil demand in China has led the EIA, IEA, and OPEC to lower their global oil demand forecasts several times. In December, OPEC revised its 2024 forecast downward for the fifth consecutive time. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Rising non-OPEC+ production & tepid demand are expected to amplify an oversupplied oil market in 2025, putting downward pressure on prices. Donald Trump’s energy policies are likely to exacerbate this imbalance further widening the gap between supply and demand. Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them a more accessible and flexible option for traders, enabling more granular hedging. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in March 2025 (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 70.50/barrel • Target: 65.70/barrel • Stop: 72.00/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +480 ((70.50 – 65.70) x 100) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -150 ((70.50 – 72.00) x 100) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLH2025Short
by mintdotfinance
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this. current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames) key levels for 2025: 65 - 75 short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3 medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*. current swing trade: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Strategy & New Group Trading ConceptHanging out chatting about next year's trade desk business goals. I'm a firm believer that a good trader is just as valuable as the assets that they trade. Learning how to simplify trading is the first step to building a reliable strategy. There are a few areas of fund management that are hidden from everyday traders because it does not apply to non-financial professionals. For starters I've got this idea to start the 'seaside connection' . I've met many different types of traders. Some of which have profitable strategies, copiers, and some who gamble. What if we found a balance? I have a track for all of these people. The goal is to add more value to your time on the desk. so if your trading 100 - 100,000 does not make a difference. Strats (protected) can be copied without requesting private proprietary information about what & how it works. Purely focused on results. Non-Strats (Train & Trade): Learn how to apply my strategy to markets. Literally, you focus on your market timing, force, and fundamentals. Gamblers: Learn how to protect your punting with risk to reward strategies that reduce your risk or blow up your account in style lol. Just kidding, but you should know that the majority of traders are not trading, they are gambling. I'm not here to turn atheist into believers, but soon enough, the markets will. Investors: You look down on us traders at times. This is okay, because without us you have no one to blame when your 3 month outlook shifts. You need us, because we provide you with near term returns. Our strategies will be packaged in PAMM / MAMM funds for you to take advantage of as a hedge to that longterm underlying position you've got working since last year!
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by moneymagnateash
2
CRUDEOIL - Symmetrical triangle breakout on the horizonCrude Oil Update (4-Hour Timeframe) Chart Overview: Crude Oil is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with both lower highs and higher lows converging, signaling potential for a breakout soon. The price has rejected the upper trendline (around 5895) multiple times, highlighting it as a critical resistance level. EMA Analysis: The price is hovering near the 55 EMA (5836), indicating indecision. A close above this EMA could push the price higher. Trading Plan: Entry Long: Above 5900 Target 1 - 6002 Target 2 - 6138 Entry Short: Below 5744 Target 1 - 5450 Target 2 - 5500 Risk Management: Maintain a stop-loss below the triangle's lower boundary for long positions and above the upper boundary for short positions. Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risks effectively.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
CRUDEOIL MASSIVE BREAKOUT Chart Analysis The chart shows a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup. The price has successfully broken out of the wedge pattern and is now testing the breakout zone near 5960, indicating potential further upside. Additionally: The 55 EMA is acting as dynamic support and is currently positioned at 5935 Buying Levels: Entry: 5960 (breakout confirmation) Support: 5935 (for tight stop-loss setups) Accumulation Zone: 5920 (for a risk-reward play) Selling Levels: Profit Booking Target: 6020 Extended Target: 6050 (if momentum persists) Stop Loss: 5920 (below the demand zone) Key Notes Watch for volume confirmation to validate the breakout. Keep an eye on broader market trends for crude oil, as global sentiment can significantly impact intraday movements. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Conduct your own analysis before entering trades.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
2