#SPY How to trade this downtrend? Analysis of the market. Did we change our trend? How you should plan downtrends, change of trends and possible good low entrys on good names. Wealth creation trading... Insights of a technical trader
WTI3! trade ideas
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 13th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The February 24 pivot forecast reversed crude from the strong 69.80 support level. This level was broken and eroded during the week, as I predicted last time. Based on timing and the chart, there are signs of the second phase beginning. In this context, I closed my short position from February 3. The price movement from the February 3 extreme forecast on CL futures provided $2K per contract.
⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. The next extreme forecast is March 3. Another extreme forecast is on March 19, combined with retrograde Mercury on March 17.
CL1 WeeklyThesre is a Wolfe Wave and Price hugging that Extended 1-4 Line in future is Possible .
For price to pop above that Channel to 110.00 Area is also possible .
All my Price levels are based on Fib's .
So we could be locked in this Channel for a few Months
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental.
⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
Levels to consider for Crude oil Futures CL1!On this video i discuss what I think is the next long/short to consider and illustrate how not to get caught up in the noise of low probability setups .
Currently we are trading inside of a range between the POC and the VAH .
I look back on previous highs in the chart and how we reacted at those levels and what I potentially see looking forward . My bias overall is expecting more downside but I dont marry that one bias and simply look at the PA from both sides with a focus on having a plan in the event of a move up or Down .
WTI - Bulls in action!Hi All! A day off is a good time for reflection.
Oil Price Outlook: Potential Fifth Wave Impulse Up
There is a high probability that oil prices, having broken through the upper boundary of the regression channel, may continue their upward movement with a target in the 81.20–84.00 range. This could be the fifth wave of an upward impulse.
Wave Structure Analysis:
✅ Wave 1 – Leading diagonal
✅ Wave 2 – Double zigzag
✅ Wave 3 – Strong upward movement
✅ Wave 4 – Deep correction as a single zigzag, reaching the maximum possible level of 71.50
‼️ Further decline invalidates this scenario.
Technical Confirmation:
🔹 Bullish divergence is clearly visible on both the H1 and H4 charts.
🔹 AO and RSI indicators are turning upwards while the price continued to decline, indicating a trend reversal.
🔹 The price has not fallen below 71.50, where bulls have established strong support.
Fundamental Catalyst:
📢 Recent news about tariff increases, including on goods from Canada (such as oil), could be a bullish driver for oil prices.
Key Targets:
✅ First target: 77.36
✅ Local high: 81.00
✅ Major resistance level: 84.00
#CrudeOil #WTI #Brent #Trading #ElliottWaves #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #PriceAction #MarketUpdate #OilPrices
Elliott Wave View Crude Oil (CL) 5 Swing Structure Favors HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in Light Crude Oil (CL) suggests the metal ended cycle from 1.16.2025 high. Decline from 1.16.2025 high unfolded as a 5 waves with wave ((i)) ended at 77.87 and wave ((ii)) ended at 79.44. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 72.38 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 75.18. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 70.12 which completed wave A in higher degree.
Oil is now looking to correct cycle from 1.16.2025 high in wave B. Internal subdivision of wave B is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave A, wave i ended at 72.07 and pullback in wave ii ended at 70.89. Wave iii higher ended at 73.04 and pullback in wave iv ended at 71.85. Final leg wave v ended at 73.25 which completed wave (i). Due to the 5 swing rally from 2.17.2025, the structure suggests further upside is more likely. Pullback in wave (ii) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.17.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 70.11 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
[Positional] Crude Buy BetSL at day's low. High chance of triggering.
Note -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives
Crude Eyes Bullish Reversal - Descending Trendline🚨 Crude Oil (MCX) 4 HOUR Chart Analysis 🚨
🔹 Bullish Indicators Identified: Breakout from a descending trendline, signaling potential trend reversal.
Price reclaiming the 55 EMA (6211) as a key resistance level.
🔹 Expanding Demand Zone: The breakout structure suggests a shift in market sentiment, increasing the probability of bullish continuation.
🔹 Target Levels: Watching for price movement towards the 6310 zone (Bearish OB).
T1 - 6250
T2 - 6300
T3 - 6350
🔹 Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above 6180 - 6200 will validate the bullish breakout.
🔹 Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively.
📈 Stay alert for confirmation & volume surge! 🚀
🔹 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on available data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk; past performance is not indicative of future results.
❤️ If this helps, please like the post!
MICRO CRUDE OIL - BULLISH OR BEARISH INCOMING ACTION?Crude Oil looking to breakout this week. Downside or upside? Let's hear your thoughts.
Does our LIS hold? Weekly CL Trade IdeaNYMEX:CL1!
Macro Update:
There are a lot of market moving events taking shape on the macro landscape.
Peace negotiations between warring countries, reciprocal trade tariffs, and a US-Iran nuclear deal.
We need not mention that any of these events may potentially turn market sentiment risk on or risk off. It all depends on how these all unfold.
On the economic front, we have rate decisions from various central banks. Most central banks reiterate cautious cuts and turn hawkish amidst concerns about the rising inflation outlook. Central banks are also pointing towards rising uncertainty on the outlook itself as we mentioned above. It all depends on how events unfold.
WTI Crude Oil Big Picture:
Viewing a weekly full session WTI crude oil chart, we can see 3 weeks of one time framing up on the weekly chart starting Dec 30th, 2024. We then saw a rejection of uptrend and prices reverting to 2024 Value area. We can see four bearish weekly candlesticks from the week starting Jan 20th, 2025. Last week, the price action on the weekly timeframe formed an inverted hammer showing bearish pressure increasing on WTI crude oil. Our key LIS and key bull support show the confluence of multiple market generated levels has held up for the past 3 weeks.
Traders take note that WTI crude oil futures contract has rolled over to April 2025 contract. Symbol: CLJ2025
In addition, DOE WTI inventory numbers will be released on Thursday 11am CT due to US President’s Day on Monday February 17th, 2025.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 mcVPOC: 72.82
Feb 2025 mcVAH: 7 2.48
2025 mcVAL: 70.56
Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52
Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12
Scenario 1: Range bound week ahead
In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.
Scenario 2: Risk-off sentiment shift prices below key LIS
In this scenario, we may see a breakdown of our key bull support and Line in Sand. Price moves and stays below yearly open price, providing a possible shift lower towards composite volume point of control (CVPOC).
Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
CL 15M Bearish ICT Unicorn Breaker to go shortCL retraced back to Daily FVG zone, swept previous daily high and reversed sharply leaving 15M breaker aligned with 15M FVGs. Setting limit order to go short at the breaker.
CL 15M Bearish ICT Unicorn breakerCL is in Daily downtrend. It retraced to Daily FVG, swepr previous day high and reversed sharply. 15M ICT Unicorn breaker has formed. Setting limit order to go short
USOIL Sell Setup🔻 USOIL Sell Setup
📉 MSS Confirmed → Liquidity Grab
🎯 Target: Equal Lows (Sell-Side Liquidity)
🔍 Entry: Retrace to FVG / OB in Premium
⏳ Confirm: Volume + Momentum
🔥 Let me know if you need a chart! 🚀
Crude Oil Bearish Setup Crude oil is showing signs of potential downside movement. After a recent rally, price is facing strong resistance near $71.60-$72.65, where sellers are stepping in.
🔻 Key Observations:
1️⃣ Price previously broke out of a descending channel but failed to gain strong bullish momentum.
2️⃣ A lower high is forming, indicating that buyers are losing control.
3️⃣ There’s a strong support zone around $70.14-$70.89, which could be the next target.
4️⃣ A potential short opportunity is forming, with an entry near the current price and a stop above resistance.
Take Profit 1 - 70.89
Take Profit 2 - 70.14
Stop Loss - 72.65
Possible riseOil is now in a correction phase after having been descending, as noted on the left side of the chart. The price may move between 73.72 and 70.12 and a break of either side may lead to bull run or a bearish continuation.
For the immediate bullish rise, if price continues to be above 70.12, and passes 71.6 simultaneously settling above, the commodity may try to touch 73.000 zone
My View : CLJ2025 - Crude Oil Futures (April 2025)Summary analysis :
Price Movement: The current price is at 71.43, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 (-0.02%) from the previous close. The price has been relatively stable within a narrow range, with the high at 71.46 and the low at 71.38.
Trend Indicator s: The Heikin Ashi candles suggest a potential consolidation phase, as there is no strong directional movement indicated by the candles. The Bollinger Bands (BB20) show the price is near the middle band (SMA close at 71.10), indicating a balanced market without significant volatility.
Support and Resistance : Key support levels are around 71.00 and 70.50, while resistance levels are near 72.50 and 73.00. The price is currently hovering near the lower end of the recent range.
Volume and Momentum : The volume data is not explicitly provided, but the lack of significant price movement suggests low momentum. The ARIMA forecast (BQECASTHL) indicates a potential for minor fluctuations without a clear trend.
Fractals and Signals : The presence of fractals suggests potential reversal points, but without a clear pattern, it’s challenging to predict a strong move. The SELL and BUY signals are not strongly pronounced, indicating a neutral market sentiment.
Time Frame : The analysis is based on a 1-hour chart, which is suitable for short-term trading. Traders should monitor for breakout signals above 71.46 or below 71.38 for potential short-term opportunities.
In summary, the Crude Oil Futures market for April 2025 is currently in a consolidation phase with limited volatility. Traders should watch for breakout signals and monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.
OilCrude Oil
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Change in Characteristics
Falling Wedge in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
CL: Squeeze: sell ideaOn CL as you can see on the graph we have a squeeze. This means that we would have a high probability of seeing the market go downward over a time unit of one (1) hour, especially when the vwap is broken forcefully by a large red candle.
Bearish Outlook: Short Crude Oil Next Week as Resistance Holds- Key Insights: Crude oil is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, with
recent trading activity indicating waning speculative interest and a
reluctance to decisively break past resistance levels. The market is
consolidating around the low 70s, reflecting broader concerns about
geopolitical tensions and their impact on supply. This scenario presents a
viable short opportunity as prices may struggle to maintain upward momentum.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets are T1 = 68.50, T2 = 66.00.
Stop levels are
S1 = 72.50, S2 = 73.50.
This positioning reflects the current market sentiment and expected resistance.
- Recent Performance: The crude oil market has experienced a series of lower
highs and lows, and trading has remained stagnant. Prices have been hovering
in a narrow range, with a slight bearish inclination driven by external
factors and limited investor confidence.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts project continued bearish movements for crude oil in
the short-term, advising caution among traders. Geopolitical events,
particularly concerning Iran, remain critical in shaping market dynamics,
alongside potential impacts from OPEC's decisions.
- News Impact: Geopolitical concerns, particularly around sanctions against Iran
and conflicts influencing global oil supply chains, are pivotal in
understanding current price movements. Developments in Ukraine and OPEC’s
production strategies are additional elements that could sway market
direction.
Crude Oil Short Setup: Targeting the Low $70s to High $69sCrude oil appears to be showing signs of bearish momentum after a failed attempt to break higher. With the price stalling around the $71.00 level, we’re positioning for a short trade targeting a retracement into the low $70s or possibly into the high $69s, where we see potential support levels.
MCL1! – Bearish Target in Play MCL1! – Bearish Target in Play
🔻 Short Bias | 🎯 Target: 70.36824 | ⏳ Deadline: Feb 25
After a temporary bounce, crude oil is facing resistance, and momentum suggests a move lower toward 70.36824 is possible. Monitoring price action for further confirmation.
💡 All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
#CrudeOil #MCL #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: No bigger opinion on this trading range. 70 holds, we chop until a bigger news event pushes us above 74. Below 70 we could flush to 69 and then 67.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls preventing meaningful lower lows but we have a clear bear trend line. Bulls are still favored going into next week to buy around 70 and test back up to at least 72. They want to break above the Tuesday high 73.67 and make the market more neutral again. If they get it, we could test 75 next.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears have closed the week near the lows and they want to poke at 70 until it fails. I have no idea how likely that is next week but for now it’s support and if we see decent buying pressure tomorrow, bulls are favored. Volume is also trash again. Below 70 we test 69 and then 67.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. Still no interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. Nothing has changed since last Sunday. Play the range or trade something else.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
