WTICOUSD trade ideas
WTIFrom the channel ceiling, it can go back to the midline and the channel floor...
something it has followed so far, and the support levels are also lower.
WTI Crude Oil Price Targets Fresh GainsWTI Crude Oil Price Targets Fresh Gains
WTI Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might even test $63.50.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude climbed above the $60.90 and $61.50 resistance levels.
- There is a key rising channel forming with support at $61.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a fresh upward move from $60.10 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $60.90 resistance.
The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.45 swing high to the $60.08 low. The price even climbed above the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $62.15 resistance zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.45 swing high to the $60.08 low. There is now a key rising channel forming with support at $61.30.
The RSI is now near the 50 level and the price could aim for more gains. If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $62.15. The next major resistance is near the $62.65 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $63.45 level or even $65.00.
Conversely, the price might correct gains and test the $61.30 support level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $60.90 zone, below which the price could test the $60.10 zone.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $58.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.50 support zone.
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WTI Crude Slips as Inventory Build Fuels Bearish MomentumWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged lower overnight, extending its recent pullback following the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report for the week ending May 9. The data revealed an unexpected build of 3.45 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, contrasting sharply with the prior week's 2.03 million-barrel draw and defying market expectations of a 1 million-barrel decline.
This surprise uptick in stockpiles signaled softening demand, compounding existing bearish sentiment and sparking a fresh wave of selling. WTI has since declined approximately 2% from the May 13 high of $63.68, suggesting growing downside pressure.
Technically, the price action appears poised to retest the key intermediate support at $60.00, a psychologically significant level. A decisive break below this area could expose the next major support at $55.12, a pivotal zone that aligns with the prevailing 7th March 2022 long-term downtrend. A breach of this support zone would likely confirm a broader bearish reversal, marking a critical milestone for oil markets.
On the contrary, oil prices may consolidate around the $60.00–$61.50 range before moving higher. If buying interest increases, prices could rise toward the key $63.71–$65.70 cluster zone. A decisive break above $66.00 could further interest near-term gains and short to medium term uptrend.
Traders will be closely watching upcoming macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues, with sentiment likely to remain fragile in the near term.
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Bullish Pullback Setup – Targeting $66.70 Entry Point: Around $62.30 - $62.26
Stop Loss: Set below the entry zone at $61.65, with a potential lower buffer at $60.90
Target Zone (EA TARGET POINT): Between $66.62 and $67.00
A projected gain of 4.22 points (~6.77%)
📈 Price Action & Indicators:
The price had a strong bullish run recently and is now consolidating or pulling back slightly.
The red and blue moving averages (likely short-term and medium-term MAs) show a bullish crossover and trend.
There's a potential bullish setup if the price pulls back to the entry zone and finds support.
The blue curved arrow indicates a projected bounce from the $62.30 support region back up toward the $66.70 target.
🛠️ Strategy Implied:
Wait for pullback to the entry zone (~$62.30).
Enter long at or around that level.
Set Stop Loss at $61.65 to limit downside risk.
Take Profit at $66.70 for a solid risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risks:
If support at $62.30 fails, price may head toward $61.65 or lower.
Market volatility (especially with crude oil) can invalidate setups quickly.
Economic events (e.g., U.S. inventory reports, OPEC news) can disrupt technical patterns.
USOIL A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 61.87
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 61.38
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short Setup🔻 Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short Setup – Trend Exhaustion with Bearish Risk/Reward Play
Crude oil has shown weakness after failing to reclaim the $62.50–63.00 resistance zone. Price is now consolidating near the breakdown level, and early signs of bearish continuation are forming. SQZMOM histogram is flattening near zero, hinting at loss of bullish momentum. This setup offers a high-probability short with favorable downside extension.
📉 Entry: 61.97
🎯 Target: 57.83
🛑 Stop Loss: 63.87
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.18
📆 Expected Duration: ~5 days
📌 Technical Highlights:
Bearish Retest: Price is stalling at previous broken support turned resistance.
Trend Weakness: Lower highs forming after recent top at 63.87.
SQZMOM Indicator: Momentum stalling below zero, signaling a potential shift back to bearish pressure.
Support Gap: Clean range down to $58 with thin volume structure below $60.
💬 A break below 60.12 confirms momentum shift. A close above 62.50 invalidates the short.
USOILUSOIL (WTI Crude) Fundamentals – May 2025
1. Supply and Demand Dynamics
Global Oil Demand:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth will slow from 990,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 to around 650,000 bpd for the rest of 2025, reflecting economic headwinds and record-high efficiency gains.
The IEA’s latest report (May 2025) estimates total demand will rise by 741,000 bpd in 2025, reaching 103.9 million bpd, with emerging markets (China, India, Africa, Latin America, Middle East) driving most of the growth.
OECD demand is expected to decline, while non-OECD demand remains geographically diversified.
Global Oil Supply:
Global crude oil and liquids supply is forecast to average 104.4 million bpd in 2025, up 1.8 million bpd (+1.7%) from 2024.
Non-OPEC+ countries (U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada) are expected to contribute most of the supply growth, potentially resulting in a supply surplus.
OPEC+ extended its 3.7 million bpd supply cuts to the end of 2026, but voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out starting April 2025.
Supply-Demand Balance:
The EIA expects a supply surplus in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth outpaces demand increases, especially with OPEC+ phasing out some cuts.
2. Inventory and Refinery Data
U.S. Inventories:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels at the end of April, now about 6% below the five-year seasonal average.
Gasoline and distillate inventories remain below average, suggesting tightness in refined product markets.
U.S. refineries are operating at 88.6% capacity, with robust input and flat-to-lower gasoline production.
3. Geopolitical and Macro Factors
Trade Policy and Geopolitics:
Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have improved risk sentiment and supported oil prices.
Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and de-escalation in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums, but the market remains sensitive to any setback in negotiations.
OPEC+ Compliance:
OPEC+ compliance with production cuts was high (112%) in March 2025, tightening supply and helping prices rebound from recent lows.
4. Price Trends and Outlook
Current Prices:
WTI crude is trading around $62.80–$63.50, rebounding from recent lows but still well below early 2025 peaks.
Price volatility remains high (Brent’s 30-day realized volatility peaked at 35%), reflecting sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and inventory data.
Forecasts:
J.P. Morgan maintains a Brent forecast of $66/bbl for 2025, with expectations for prices to remain under pressure due to supply surplus, but potential for mid-$70s if trade optimism and OPEC+ discipline persist.
Futures markets price WTI at an average of $75/bbl for 2025, though this is above current spot prices.
Summary Table
Factor Current Status/Impact (May 2025)
Global Demand Growth Slowing, driven by emerging markets
Global Supply Rising, led by non-OPEC+ (US, Brazil, Guyana)
OPEC+ Policy Extended cuts, gradual phase-out
US Inventories Below 5-year average, supporting prices
Geopolitical Risk Lower, but market remains headline-sensitive
WTI Price Range $62.80–$63.50 (recent), futures avg $75/bbl
Volatility High, driven by macro and geopolitical uncertainty
Conclusion
USOIL fundamentals for May 2025 reflect a market balancing slower demand growth, robust non-OPEC+ supply, and cautious optimism on geopolitics. Ongoing OPEC+ discipline and below-average inventories provide some support, but the risk of a supply surplus and persistent volatility keep prices capped. Watch for trade policy shifts, OPEC+ compliance, and inventory trends as key catalysts for the month.
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 61.86
Target Level: 55.95
Stop Loss: 65.80
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USCRUDEOIL - Potential SellHi Traders,
Here is my view on CMCMARKETS:USCRUDEOIL
BIAS: SELL
Logical Analysis:
From April 2020 to March 2022, oil experienced strong buyer demand, pushing price aggressively from the $7 level up to around $120.
At that point, sellers stepped in, and a temporary agreement between buyers and sellers was established around the $120 zone — a fair value at the time.
Since March 2022, price has been declining — entering a discount phase.
However, the move has not been sharp or aggressive, suggesting sellers are not in a rush.
Importantly, no significant buyer interest has been observed during this entire discounted phase.
🛒 Interpretation:
The “store” (market) offered oil at a huge premium until buyers stopped stepping in at high prices. Since then, the price has been marked down gradually, waiting for a new batch of interested buyers — who haven’t shown up yet but be aware.
Technical Analysis: see chart
Good Luck
Crude OilU.S Oil Index
- Rising Wedge as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
- Break of Structure
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " ABC " Corrective Waves
- Change of Characteristics
- RSI - Divergence
US OILUS Oil Index
- Bullish Channel as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
- Break of Structure
- RSI - Divergence
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
- Resistance Level
The main strategy is to go long on pullbacksDuring the Asian trading session on Monday, Brent crude fell slightly by $0.05 to $65.15 per barrel; WTI crude was quoted at $61.76, while the more actively traded July contract dropped $0.04 to $61.93. Both benchmark oil prices recorded weekly gains of over 1% last week, mainly boosted by the easing of global trade sentiment. The market will closely monitor data to be released soon by a major Asian economy, including April industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. ANZ Bank noted in a report that weak data from the major Asian economy could undermine the optimism brought by the tariff suspension, thereby pressing down oil prices.👉👉👉
The K-line closed as a yang line with a long lower shadow, indicating strong bullish momentum from buyers. The moving average system is gradually arranging in a bullish formation, relying on the oil price, and the short-term objective trend direction has turned upward. It is expected that the intraday crude oil trend will continue to rise, reaching near 63. Overall, in terms of crude oil trading strategies, it is recommended to focus on buying low on pullbacks and supplement with selling high on rebounds. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance at the 63.0-63.5 level above, and the support at the 61.0-60.5 level below.
Oil trading strategy：
buy @ 61.00-61.50
sl 60.00
tp 62.30-62.80
If you think the analysis helpful, you can give a thumbs-up to show your support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments. Thank you for reading!👉👉👉
WTI Update | Oil CrashSince the last update we were able to perform about two to three swing trades. One from $70 - $79, and from $79 to $68. The next move I'm looking for is another short position from current market price ~($62) to swing to the next major low $33.
We saw a rejection last week and we're currently pulling back to retest the little selloff we had.
Could say this next local move will look to selloff mid week making its way back to $57 which would be a nice short term swing.
The $33 target would be the long term swing of course and moving on I would like to see a break below $57 and a retest.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 60.44 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 57.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 63.68 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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USOIL RISKY SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL is going up to retest
A horizontal resistance of 62.00$
Which makes me locally bearish biased
And I think that we will see a pullback
And a move down from the level
Towards the target below at 60.62$
SHORT🔥
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WTI Crude Returns to the $60 ZoneWTI crude oil has posted a drop of more than 4% in recent sessions as the market digests new announcements from OPEC+. The organization stated that current economic conditions could support growth in oil demand throughout 2025 and 2026. However, it remains firm in its decision to increase production starting in May and June, with monthly increments of 411,000 barrels per day, and has also announced another increase in July.
This stance has sparked concerns in the market about a potential short-term oversupply. If this strategy persists, selling pressure could return to WTI price action in the coming sessions.
Bearish Trend
Since January 20, a clear bearish trend has been forming, pushing the barrel’s price below the $60 mark. While a notable upward move is currently underway, it remains insufficient to break the prevailing bearish formation, which continues to be the dominant technical structure in the short term.
ADX
The ADX line was previously hovering around the 40 level, reflecting high volatility in price movements. However, it has begun to flatten, and if this continues, it could suggest a loss of directional strength, paving the way for a more neutral price behavior.
RSI
The behavior of the RSI mirrors that of the ADX. It is currently oscillating around the 50 level, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure, and reinforcing the potential for a neutral phase in the short term.
Key Levels:
$65 – Current Resistance: Aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and acts as a key psychological level. A breakout above this level could extend the current bullish bias over the coming sessions.
$67 – Distant Resistance: Matches the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a sideways zone observed in March. Sustained moves above this area could challenge the existing bearish structure on the chart.
$60 – Crucial Support: Represents a consistent area of indecision in recent months. If the price returns to this level, the previous bearish structure could regain strength in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Potential bullish bounce?USO/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 57.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 64.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Oil has confirmed resuming of uptrend.Oil has confirmed resuming of uptrend. Next tp is 65$. We can also see nice harmonical bullish bat pattern.
Crude Oil Analysis 16-May-2025Crude oil analysis and what are the possible scenarios we could see.
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USOIL:Beware of pullback.The short-term trend of crude usoil continues to fluctuate and fall, hitting the 60 mark. Usoil prices gained some support at 60 and formed a rebound rhythm. The moving average system still suppresses oil prices, and the objective short-term trend direction remains downward. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator crosses upward below the zero axis, and bullish momentum strengthens. It is expected that after a slight upward movement in crude oil prices during the day, there is a high probability of being blocked again near 62.50 and falling.
USOIL
sell@62-62.5
tp:61-60.5
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