XAG/USD Rejection Looming at Key Resistance – Bearish Reversal 🔍 Chart Analysis – XAG/USD
1. Trend & EMAs:
The chart shows two key exponential moving averages:
📈 EMA 50 (Red): 33.1940
📉 EMA 200 (Blue): 32.8684
Price is currently above both EMAs, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but a possible bearish rejection is forming near resistance.
2. Key Zones:
🟥 Resistance Zone: 33.45 – 33.60
Price has repeatedly tested this zone and reversed, suggesting strong selling pressure.
Multiple wicks into this zone show buyer exhaustion.
🟩 Support Zone: 32.60 – 32.85
Strong demand observed here with consistent bounces.
The EMA 200 also aligns with this support, reinforcing its strength.
3. Price Behavior & Pattern:
🧱 Repetitive Bearish Drops: Marked by blue rectangles, suggesting a pattern of sharp sell-offs after touching resistance.
🔁 Potential Double Top Pattern forming near the resistance zone, a classic bearish reversal signal.
🧭 The projected path suggests:
A short-term retest of the resistance.
Followed by a pullback toward the support zone around 32.60.
Breakdown below support could open further downside potential.
📌 Summary:
⚠️ Short-Term Outlook: Bearish bias if resistance holds.
📍 Key Level to Watch: 33.60 (breakout) and 32.60 (breakdown).
🔄 Trade Plan:
Consider short entries near 33.45–33.60 resistance zone with stops above 33.65.
Target around 32.65–32.60 support zone.
📊 Indicators in Play:
EMA confluence supports trend analysis.
Price structure and rejection patterns suggest likely mean reversion to support.
XAGUSD trade ideas
Silver Consolidates After Huge Drop – Breakout Ahead?At the beginning of April, XAGUSD experienced a dramatic decline, losing over 5,000 pips in just three trading days — a drop of more than 15% of its value.
However, after bottoming out on Monday, April 7, the price staged a sharp rebound and, within a week, was back around the 33.00 level.
📉➡️📈 From Panic to Pause – What’s Next?
For more than a month now, Silver has been trading in a tight range, between just under 32.00 and slightly above 33.00.
This consolidation forms a rectangle pattern, which is typically a continuation structure in technical analysis.
With this in mind, I expect further upside from Silver. A clean breakout above the current range could send the price toward the 35.00 zone — and possibly beyond this psychological level.
📊 Trading Plan:
As long as the 32.00 support holds, I remain bullish and will look to buy dips, aiming for a positive risk-reward setup, ideally around 1:2.
🧠 Consolidation breeds momentum — don’t sleep on Silver. If the genuine breakout comes, it could be explosive. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Silver Continues to Face Broad Lateral ChannelOver the past five trading sessions, silver has managed to sustain a significant short-term bullish move, posting a steady gain of just over 4%. The current bullish bias has remained relatively consistent, as global risk perception stays elevated, mainly due to the ongoing back-and-forth of the trade war.
In his recent comments, President Trump announced that he might impose tariffs of up to 50% on European products if negotiations failed to progress quickly. Although a temporary truce has been reached following this statement, the European Union may continue preparing countermeasures in case no concrete agreement is achieved.
In this context, silver plays a crucial role, as XAG/USD is widely regarded as one of the quintessential safe-haven assets. As global economic risk perception—tied to the growing trade conflict—continues to rise, silver will likely attract enough capital to sustain steady buying pressure.
Additionally, it's important to note that the U.S. dollar is currently showing marked weakness against its major peers. If this weakness persists, buying pressure on silver could become even more relevant in upcoming sessions, provided these macroeconomic factors remain in place.
Broad Lateral Channel:
Since October 2024, silver has remained within a broad lateral channel between resistance at $34.43 and support at $30.38. Recently, a short-term bullish trend has begun to form, although buying momentum still seems insufficient to break out of this range. Therefore, this remains the most important technical pattern to monitor in the short term. As long as the top of the channel holds, it could serve as a key level triggering pullbacks in the current buying trend.
RSI:
Although the RSI line has started to rise steadily, it remains close to the neutral 50 level, suggesting equilibrium between buying and selling forces in the market. As long as the RSI continues to hover around this level, such neutrality may start to weigh on the current upward trend.
ADX:
The ADX line remains below the 20 mark, indicating that average volatility in recent movements is not decisive. This may signal that a phase of persistent neutrality is reemerging in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
$32.75 – Near-term resistance marked by the 50-period moving average. This level could serve as a barrier in case of downside corrections.
$31.45 – A critical support level, aligned with the 200-period moving average. Selling movements reaching this area could invalidate the ongoing bullish setup.
$34.43 – Main resistance, representing the upper boundary of the broad lateral range. Breakouts above this level would reinforce a stronger bullish bias.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Silver Double Top at Major Resistance – Bearish Breakdown📌 Overview:
This chart shows a classic Double Top Pattern forming on the weekly timeframe for Silver (XAG/USD). Price has reached a multi-year resistance zone and failed to break above it twice, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum and the possibility of a larger trend reversal.
🧩 Detailed Pattern Breakdown:
🔹 1. Double Top Pattern
The double top is one of the most reliable bearish reversal patterns, formed when the market tests a resistance level twice and fails to break it, creating two rounded or sharp peaks. In this case:
Top 1 and Top 2 occurred near the $35–36 zone, clearly marked as a major resistance level.
This indicates strong selling pressure from that zone.
🔹 2. Major Resistance Zone
The $35–36 price range has historically acted as a ceiling for Silver prices. It rejected price several times between 2021 and 2025. When this kind of level holds, it often precedes sharp corrections, especially when volume begins to drop and momentum weakens.
🔹 3. Rising Trendline Break
After forming the double top, price broke down through a key ascending trendline, a sign that the bulls are losing control. The breakdown is further confirmed by a strong bearish candle, closing below both the trendline and a critical SR (Support-Resistance) Interchange zone.
🔹 4. Retesting in Progress
Post-breakdown, the price action is now retesting the broken trendline and horizontal zone (~$28). This is a crucial moment:
If Silver gets rejected here, it confirms the bearish breakout and signals entry for sellers.
If it reclaims this level, the bearish setup could fail, and price might consolidate or resume uptrend.
🔹 5. SR - Interchange Zone
This zone is marked because it acted as resistance during the 2022-2023 period, and then flipped into support in 2024. Currently, it’s being tested from below, making it an SR flip retest. These zones often become inflection points.
🔹 6. Black Mind Curve Support
An important and unique addition is the “Black Mind Curve Support” – a curved dynamic trendline that has historically aligned with price retracements. The projected path shows that the curve and horizontal support (~$22.68) intersect, strengthening the significance of that level.
🔹 7. Measured Move & Target
Based on the height of the Double Top pattern (approx. $10 range from top to neckline), the measured move places the target near $22.68, which matches both:
Historical demand zone
Curve support
This alignment makes $22.68 a realistic and strong downside target.
🧭 Strategic Summary:
Pattern Type: Double Top (Bearish Reversal)
Key Resistance: $35–36 (Multi-year rejection level)
Trendline: Broken (Bearish confirmation)
Retesting Area: $28–29 zone (Watch for rejection)
Downside Target: $22.68 (Confluence of support zones)
Invalidation: Clean weekly close above $35
🔍 What Traders Should Watch:
✅ Bearish Candlestick Confirmation at the retest zone (e.g. bearish engulfing, shooting star).
✅ Increased volume on drop, confirming participation by larger players.
🚫 Invalidation signal would be a sustained move and close back above the resistance zone.
⚖️ Risk Management Tip:
This pattern offers a high risk-to-reward ratio trade setup. Short entries on the retest with stop loss above $36 can provide substantial downside potential toward $22–23, especially in a commodity market prone to sharp retracements.
📌 Final Thoughts:
Silver appears to be forming a clean double top reversal at a long-term resistance. If the current retest fails, a significant correction may follow, targeting the $22.68 level. This pattern, combined with key support-resistance dynamics and psychological zones, makes this setup worth monitoring for medium- to long-term traders.
XAGUSD: Wait for a clear breakout to buy.Silver turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.038, MACD = 0.169, ADX = 26.102) but that alone isn't enough to turn us into buyers again just yet, as the Channel Up on the 4H timeframe has failed so far twice to break over the R1 level. If it does, then we will turn bullish, aiming for a +5.75% rise from the last 4H MA50 contact with TP = 34.4500.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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XAG/USD PIVOT AREA WITH BULLISH BIASSilver has been consolidating with bullish preference around the pivot area between 32.90 and 33.69.
A break above the the pivot area will bring prices of 36.01 and3 38.31 in focus, with far bigger targets north targeting ATH on the longterm .
However , failure to break above could send prices to 30.58
Bullish momentum to extend?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 33.07
1st Support: 32.64
1st Resistance: 34.48
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SILVERSilver Price, Bond Yield, and DXY Correlation in the Economy
Key Correlations
Silver and DXY (US Dollar Index): Inverse Relationship
Silver is priced in USD, so a stronger dollar (DXY↑) makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and pressuring prices lower. Conversely, a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts silver’s affordability, increasing demand and prices.
Example: In early 2025, silver surged toward $32.60 as the DXY dropped to 99.50, highlighting this dynamic.
Silver and Bond Yields: Typically Inverse, But Context-Dependent
Higher bond yields (e.g., US 10-year Treasury) raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, often pressuring prices downward.
Exception: During stagflation (high inflation + low growth) or geopolitical crises, silver and yields may rise together as investors seek inflation hedges.
Bond Yields and DXY: Positive Correlation
Rising US bond yields attract foreign capital, strengthening the dollar (DXY↑). This synergy often pressures silver prices via both channels.
Economic Applications
1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics
Fed Rate Hikes: Increase bond yields and often strengthen the dollar, creating dual headwinds for silver. However, if hikes fail to curb inflation, silver may rally as a hedge.
Quantitative Easing (QE): Expands money supply, weakening the dollar and supporting silver. For example, post-2008 QE drove silver to $50/oz by 2011.
2. Stagflation Scenarios
When inflation outpaces growth (e.g., 2024–2025), silver often outperforms despite rising yields. Investors prioritize its role as an inflation hedge over yield-driven opportunity costs.
3. Industrial Demand and Currency Volatility
Silver’s industrial use (e.g., solar panels, electronics) ties its price to economic growth. A weak dollar (DXY↓) can amplify demand from tech and green energy sectors, offsetting yield-driven declines.
4. Safe-Haven Flows
During geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade wars), silver and the dollar may both strengthen temporarily, disrupting their usual inverse correlation.
Strategic Implications
Factor Silver Price Impact Economic Signal
DXY ↑ + Yields ↑ Bearish Strong dollar, tight monetary policy
DXY ↓ + Yields ↓ Bullish Weak dollar, accommodative policy
DXY ↓ + Yields ↑ Mixed Stagflation or growth-inflation mix
Yield Peaks: Negatively divergent 10-year yields (~4.54% in May 2025) suggest impending declines, potentially boosting silver.
Debt-Driven Inflation: With U.S. debt-to-GDP exceeding 200%, monetary debasement fears support long-term silver demand despite short-term yield pressures.
Conclusion
The interplay between silver, bond yields, and the DXY provides critical insights into economic health and investor sentiment. While their correlations are often inverse, stagflation or systemic risks can override these trends, positioning silver as both a cyclical and structural hedge. Policymakers and traders monitor these relationships to navigate inflation, growth, and currency volatility.
#SILVER #DOLLAR #GOLD #FX #FOREX
Nine Failures at $33.50—Will Silver Bulls Finally Step Aside?How many more failures above $33.50 will silver bulls need to see before they step aside and let the market correct? Nine times since mid-April we’ve seen the level breached, only for price to reverse lower—providing a decent short setup if and when the bulls give up.
Positions could be established around the level with a stop above $33.69 for protection, targeting the 50DMA initially with $32.00 and $31.67 options after that. If the price is unable to break uptrend support, considering squaring the position. It’s found around $33.20 today.
Momentum indicators remain bullish, although there are signs upward momentum is waning.
If the bulls manage to break and hold above $33.69, the setup could be flipped, with longs established on the break and a stop beneath for protection. The March high of $34.59 screens as an obvious target.
Good luck!
DS
Silver H4 | Potential bearish reversalSilver (XAG/USD) is trading close to an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 33.62 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 34.70 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 31.76 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Disclaimer
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SILVER INTRADAY supported at 3190Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 3332
Resistance Level 2: 3365
Resistance Level 3: 3409
Support Level 1: 3188
Support Level 2: 3138
Support Level 3: 3090
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Skeptic | Silver (XAG/USD): Bullish Breakout Ready to Surge?Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Let’s dive into a quick Silver (XAG/USD) update—I’m catching some serious bullish vibes! 😎
On the 4-hour chart , Silver’s teasing a major resistance level right now. Keep your eyes locked on 33.68855 . If we break and hold above it, we could see a nice rally kick off. You can also use RSI hitting overbought to confirm that bullish momentum is heating up. Just stay patient and wait for that breakout confirmation to ride the wave! 👀 By the way, for you forex traders out there, what’s your go-to alternative to volume, which is super key in crypto? Drop your thoughts in the comments so we can learn together! 📝
💬 Let’s Chat!
If this sparks some trading ideas, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Want me to dive into another pair or setup? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for hanging out—keep trading sharp! ✌️
Silver M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is reading near our sell entry at 33.38, a pullback resistance close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 33.24, an overlap support.
The stop loss will be placed at 33.53, which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.