XAUUSD Double Top Breakdown & Target – Bearish Reversal in Play?In today’s analysis, we focus on Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe, which is currently presenting a high-probability bearish reversal setup. The price action has completed a Double Top pattern — a classic reversal formation — and has broken down below its neckline support, signaling a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
This chart setup is particularly valuable for swing traders, pattern traders, and anyone seeking to anticipate mid-term directional moves in the commodities market.
📐 Technical Breakdown:
🔷 1. Double Top Formation:
The Double Top pattern forms after a sustained uptrend and is identified by two peaks at nearly the same level.
In this case:
Top 1 formed near $35.5.
Top 2 retested the same zone but failed to break above.
The neckline support — drawn across the $28 zone — was eventually broken.
This price action confirms the classic M-shaped structure, signaling distribution and potential bearish continuation.
🔷 2. Neckline and Breakdown:
After failing at Top 2, price dropped below the neckline, breaking critical horizontal support.
This move completed the pattern, triggering many technical sell signals.
Price is now retesting the neckline zone, a common phenomenon where broken support becomes resistance (known as a "retest").
This retest offers a textbook short opportunity if bearish confirmation follows.
🔷 3. Curve Resistance:
The upper curved blue line represents dynamic resistance.
It has successfully capped price action across multiple attempts and aligns with the pattern's second top — enhancing the strength of this rejection area.
🧱 Support & Resistance Zones:
Resistance Zone: $34.50–$35.50
Strong resistance from both peaks (Top 1 & Top 2) and historical sellers.
Neckline / Retest Zone: ~$28.00
Now acting as resistance — this is the critical level to watch for rejection or breakout.
Support Zones / Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: ~$26.40 — aligns with recent horizontal structure and minor support.
TP2: ~$22.58 — matches major historical support and measured move projection from the Double Top pattern.
📉 Measured Move Target (Pattern Projection):
To calculate the target from a Double Top:
Measure the height from top to neckline.
Project that downward from the neckline’s breakout point.
In this case:
Height: ~$35.5 – $28 = $7.5
Breakdown point: $28 – $7.5 = Target near $20.5–22.5
The TP2 at $22.58 matches this logic — further validating the downside potential.
🔄 Market Psychology & Sentiment:
This pattern reflects a shift in sentiment:
Bulls tried and failed twice to push through resistance.
The eventual breakdown shows bearish conviction, and the ongoing retest represents a decision point.
If sellers hold this level, we could see a cascade of downside pressure as stops are triggered and momentum builds.
🛠️ Trade Setup & Scenarios:
📌 Scenario 1 – Bearish Continuation (High Probability):
If price fails to reclaim the neckline (now resistance) and forms bearish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle, rejection wick, breakdown below $31), this confirms a likely move toward TP1 and TP2.
Entry Idea: Short on rejection from the $28–$29 zone
Stop-Loss: Above $30
TP1: $26.40
TP2: $22.58
📌 Scenario 2 – Invalidated Pattern:
If bulls push price back above the neckline ($29–$30 zone) with strong volume and daily close, this invalidates the setup and may lead to:
Bullish continuation toward $32–$34
Possible trend resumption if curve resistance breaks
🧠 Educational Notes:
Double Tops are most reliable when:
Formed at the top of strong uptrends.
Followed by a neckline break with volume.
Retested with rejection.
The retest phase is often the best risk/reward entry because:
It confirms resistance.
Offers clear invalidation levels.
Keeps your stop tight while targeting deeper moves.
📢 Final Thoughts:
Silver is currently at a critical technical juncture. The Double Top breakdown has played out, and now all eyes are on the retest. If bears defend the neckline, this setup provides a strong case for continued downside, offering a clean structure with well-defined targets.
⚠️ Risk Management is crucial — always manage your position size and respect invalidation zones.
XAGUSD trade ideas
Silver as a Proportion of M2 ExcessWe see here a parallel log channel of silver / (USM2 / USGDP), which is silver's spread over the ratio of excess M2 to GDP.
So as M2 grows over GDP and there is excess liquidity, silver becomes cheaper. As M2 shrinks relative to GDP, silver is more expensive.
The cup and handle calculated non-LOG gives a $67 breakout target and target of $128.
Or we could follow the doldrums again and head back down to the bottom channel, yet these prices are the ratio of silver to excess m2, not nominal.
If we overlay the LOG of silver and line it up, we see a discrepancy as silver should be around $89 using the spread chart. Indicating it is significantly undervalued relative to its nominal price as a proportion of excess M2.
SILVER: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 32.513 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 32.783 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Silver Sell Setup- look for sell
- enter only when entry setup given, incase it might go higher a bit
- if lucky, this move might go all the way down to 28.00 level then 26.00 level
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you have the strategy
"I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
SILVER BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,303.1
Target Level: 3,253.1
Stop Loss: 3,336.4
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAGUSD Analysis with MMC | Trendline + CHoCH Insight + Target🔍 Overview
This XAGUSD chart presents a classic Mirror Market Concept (MMC) pattern – a fractal, symmetrical market behavior often observed at key inflection points. The structure is currently forming a tight triangle pattern within two converging trendlines, signaling a compression phase before a significant breakout.
Mirror Market Concept relies on the idea that historical emotional market structures tend to repeat or reflect, especially in psychologically sensitive zones such as trendline tests, liquidity pools, and BOS/CHoCH areas.
📐 Technical Structure Breakdown
🔷 1. Trendline Resistance & Support (Triangle Compression)
Upper trendline connects successive lower highs, reflecting consistent seller pressure.
Lower trendline aligns with higher lows, showing bullish defense and accumulation pressure.
The result is a symmetrical triangle, often preceding explosive directional moves.
🔹 2. Blue Ray Zone
The "Blue Ray" acts as a historical liquidity pivot — a region where large wicks and rejections happened in both directions.
Price has respected this zone repeatedly, making it a likely impulse trigger area if revisited.
🔄 3. BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character)
Major BOS near the $33.60 area indicates a shift in market structure to bullish. The break above previous swing highs suggests buyers gained control temporarily.
Major CHoCH at the base of the triangle reflects where market sentiment shifted, initiating the current series of higher lows.
📍 4. SR Interchange Zone
Previous resistance around $32.80–$33.00 is now acting as support (interchange level), creating a confluence zone with the lower trendline and CHoCH point.
🎯 Forecast & Targets
✅ Bullish Scenario (Primary):
A breakout above the upper triangle trendline and confirmation above $33.60 will validate the bullish breakout setup.
Price Target: $34.40 – $34.60 (based on triangle height + measured move theory)
Expect impulsive follow-through as trapped shorts exit and fresh longs enter.
🚫 Bearish Alternative:
A breakdown below $33.00 with strong volume and bearish retest may invalidate the bullish setup.
In such case, a fall toward $32.20–32.40 is possible — completing a deeper retracement before any resumption of the upward move.
🔍 Market Psychology Behind the Pattern
This triangle represents market indecision, a "coil" where both bulls and bears are losing volatility while absorbing liquidity. The MMC concept teaches us that price often mirrors previous patterns — and the compressed energy inside triangles typically resolves in sharp momentum moves, mirroring the prior impulse.
Expect a strong breakout that "mirrors" the breakout leg from May 22 to May 23. This type of reflection-based logic is a cornerstone of MMC.
🔔 Trading Plan & Strategy
Entry: Wait for breakout and retest of the triangle boundary (ideally on 1H/2H close).
Stop Loss: Below the most recent swing low inside the triangle.
TP1: $34.10
TP2: $34.40
TP3: $34.60 (psychological level and measured move)
⚠️ Risk & News Considerations
Upcoming U.S. economic data events (highlighted on the chart) could act as catalysts. Be prepared for volatility spikes and fakeouts. Always use solid risk management.
XAG/USD finds support as buyers build momentum.Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its losing streak, trading around $33.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday.
There is a good chance silver could retest the immediate support at the twenty-day EMA of $32.87. A push below this level could weaken the short and medium-term price momentum to the downside and put downward pressure on the grey metal around the lower boundary at $31.80.
On the upside, the XAG/USD pair could explore the region around the rectangle’s upper boundary at $33.70, aligned with the seven-week high at $33.71, reached on May 25. A break above this crucial resistance zone could cause the influx of the bullish bias and lead the silver price to approach the seven-month high of $34.60, last seen on March 28.
Inverse Head and ShouldersSilver going to 38 dollars baby.
We have a confirmed INVERSE
H&S on the daily timeframe.
What are you waiting for?
Florida just passed a bill to
recognize silver and gold as
legal tender! Silver ain't gonna
stay in this area much longer...
Bitcoin to is not gonna just hang
around 107k either...BOTH are
about to PAMP BABY!!!
Good luck and....
************* HAPPY SILVER HUNTING *************
Silver Wave Analysis – 28 May 2025
- Silver reversed from resistance level 33.70
- Likely to fall to support level 31.70
Silver recently reversed from the resistance level 33.70 (which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from April).
The resistance area near the resistance level 33.70 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Silver can be expected to fall to the next support level 31.70 (lower border of the active sideways price, which reversed the previous waves a and 2).
Silver 3 Bar Uptrend Line Now Intact!Hey Traders so today wanted to talk a little about the Silver Market. Just saw my favorite 3 bar trendline on there. Looking very bullish so if one was to trade this I would just wait for market to pull back to trend line before buying. Place your stop loss under that big candle and should be safe.
However if Bearish I would wait until market closes underneath 32.00 or even better 31.50 there is too much buying support above imo. Keep in mind Seasonally in June and July Gold and Silver noramally get increased demand.
Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
Short-Term Key Levels for Silver as Price ContractsSilver has been contracting over the last couple of days. While the gold/silver ratio remains at historically high levels, ongoing risks in global trade and manufacturing provide strong justification for this imbalance.
In the short term, unless XAGUSD breaks above the 33.45 resistance, the direction may remain to the downside. The 200-hour moving average—often used as both support and resistance—can be followed as the next key short-term target. If this moving average is broken, bearish pressure could intensify.
For upward moves, a breakout above 33.45 could open the way toward 33.55 and 33.70 levels.
Market next move 🚨 Disruptive Take on the Current Silver-CFD Setup (1 h)
⚠️ Key Issue Why It Undermines the Long-Target Thesis
1. Target looks “wishful” The arrow projects a move into the 33.55–33.60 zone without price ever clearing the nearest resistance band around 33.30–33.35. A premature target can bait traders into chasing the tail end of a relief rally.
2. Volume doesn’t back the bounce Notice how the big green climb out of the pit on the 27 th started on strong volume, but the last 10–12 candles show shrinking green bars. Demand is decaying as price inches higher—a classic recipe for a bull trap.
3. Momentum is stalling The most recent candle printed red right at the dotted mid-line, hinting at exhaustion. Without a fresh momentum kick (e.g., higher high ➜ bullish engulfing), upside continuation is statistically fragile.
4. Structure still favors lower highs The broader pattern since the 25–26 th is a series of lower swing-highs. Until that diagonal is broken decisively, every uptick remains a counter-trend bounce, not a new up-trend.
5. Macro landmine ahead The U.S. flag icon marks an impending data release. Silver’s intraday volatility tends to spike on USD events; any dollar strength could instantly unwind the thin-volume rise. Trading into news with no contingency ≠ smart risk.
6. Stop-loss placement is unclear Without a clearly defined invalidation level (e.g., below 33.00 or under the 27 th swing-low), the R-R profile is lopsided: limited upside room vs. plenty of air underneath.
SILVER (XAGUSD) BUY TRADE PLANXAG/USD – Silver vs USD
Buy Entry: $33.25-35
📋 Plan Overview Table
Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Swing Long 70% 2.7:1 Active Trade
📈 Market Bias & Type
Market Bias: Bullish to Neutral
Type: Continuation from breakout support
🔰 Confidence Level
Confidence: 70%
Breakdown:
Technical Structure: ✅ Bullish channel holding
Volume Pickup: ✅ Moderate confidence
Macro Sentiment: ⚠️ Mixed USD signals
Daily candle: ✅ Higher low formed
Overhead Resistance: ⚠️ Still present near $34.50
📍 Entry Zone
✅ EntRY at $33.25-35, which is within the recent demand bounce zone (between $33.10–$33.40)
❗ Stop Loss (Dynamic)
Primary SL: $32.60 (below recent swing low)
Alternative SL (tight): $32.90 (below previous candle low if managing tighter risk)
Reasoning: Clean invalidation below $32.60 would break the current bullish structure.
🎯 TP Targets
Take Profit Level Reason
TP1 $33.95 Mid-range resistance zone
TP2 $34.60 Previous top + psychological resistance
TP3 $35.30 March swing high zone
🧠 Management Strategy
Move to Breakeven at $33.70 (just before TP1)
Scale out 50% at TP1, trail stop for remainder
Tighten stop near $33.00 if candle closes bearish on H4
Watch DXY – USD strength could pause momentum
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
✅ Price bounced from H4 demand
✅ Daily candle higher low
⚠️ Still under resistance at $34.00
✅ Volume showing re-engagement
✅ No bearish engulfing yet on D1
⏳ Validity
Plan Valid for 48–72 hours (Swing)
❌ Invalidation Conditions
Close below $32.60 on 4H or Daily timeframe
Break of bullish structure with strong volume sell-off
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
USD: Mixed due to Fed ambiguity on rates
Silver Demand: Steady amid China stimulus & global inflation risks
COT Data: Funds still net long but slightly trimmed positions
Risk Sentiment: Gold + Silver recovering alongside equities
📋 Final Trade Summary
We have a solid long at $33.35. Hold with SL at $32.60.
First resistance at $33.95. If price breaks above that zone, $34.60–$35.30 remains on the table. Consider trailing your stop after TP1 and letting partials run.
Market next move
1. Misleading Bullish Label
Issue: The chart marks the latest price action as "Bullish" based on a short-term recovery.
Disruption: This could be a dead-cat bounce — a temporary recovery in a downtrend. The overall trend from the prior candles is bearish, and a few green candles don’t confirm a reversal without volume or structural confirmation.
---
2. Volume Analysis Ignored
Issue: The volume spike accompanying the recent green candles is not fully analyzed.
Disruption: Although there's higher volume, it could be short covering or a reaction to news, not organic buying interest. No volume divergence or institutional footprint confirmation is given.
---
3. No Confirmation Pattern
Issue: No mention of chart patterns (e.g., double bottom, inverse head and shoulders, etc.).
Disruption: Calling it “bullish” without a clear technical pattern or confirmation (like a break of resistance or retest) is speculative.
---
4. Vague Target
Issue: The “Target” is labeled without specifics.
Disruption: There's no price level, Fibonacci retracement, or resistance level justification. A target without rationale lacks credibility.
---
5. No Risk Management
Issue: No stop-loss or risk level is discussed.
Disruption: Without defined risk-reward ratio, the analysis is incomplete and not tradable. Every strategy needs downside planning.
SILVER: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 33.092 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 32.856.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Market next move
1. False Breakout / Bull Trap Risk
Observation: Price just touched the support and bounced slightly.
Disruption: If buyers fail to push above the next resistance (around 32.95–33.00), it could be a bull trap.
Implication: The bounce might just be a short-covering rally before another leg down.
---
2. Weak Buying Volume
Observation: The bounce lacks strong green volume bars so far.
Disruption: Weak volume on the bounce suggests limited buyer conviction.
Implication: Without a volume surge, the upward move could fizzle out quickly.
---
3. Lower High Structure
Observation: The trend before the support touch is clearly down.
Disruption: This bounce may only form a lower high before continuation lower.
Implication: The larger trend remains bearish unless 33.20+ is reclaimed with strength.
---
4. Fundamental Headwinds
Disruption: Any upcoming data like strong USD, rising interest rates, or weak industrial demand could push silver down despite technical setups.
Implication: Bullish setups could fail fast due to macroeconomic pressure.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of XAG
K1 and K2 break up the downtrend line of a potential bullish triangle pattern.
If K3 still stand upon the line,
It will be a valid break up.
On the other hand,
If the following candles close below K2 immediately,
K1 will be a fake up candle,
And the risk will sharply increase.
Long-33.4/Stop-33.08/Target-36