XAGUSDG trade ideas
Silver Gains on Tensions, Eyes on FedFriday’s strong U.S. data may support the dollar, as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June from 52.2, beating forecasts of 53.5 and marking the first gain in six months.
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand, especially for silver. Israel struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites Friday, killing military officials. On Sunday, Iran began its fourth phase of response, warning of firm retaliation to further Israeli actions.
Markets now turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. While rates are expected to stay unchanged, futures still price in two cuts this year, possibly starting in September, supported by last week’s soft inflation data.
Resistance is set at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
XAGUSD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
XAGUSD (SILVER) TRADE PLANTactical Plan – XAG/USD (as of $36.46)
🧠 Bias:
🔻 Short-Term Bearish due to:
Evening Star Doji on 4H
Parabolic rally exhaustion
Weakening momentum into resistance
📋 TRADE PLAN (SWING SETUP)
Parameter Entry / Target
Entry Sell on break below $36.30 (confirmation candle close below it)
Stop Loss (SL) Above high of the Evening Star: $36.88
TP1 (short-term) $35.85 (1:1 RR)
TP2 (core target) $34.95
TP3 (extended) $33.80 (if trend fully unwinds)
🧮 Position Sizing & Risk
Aim for 2R or more
Size down if volatility spikes or CPI/FOMC
events are near (June macro data may distort flows)
🔁 Alternative Scenario
Condition Action
Price closes above $37.00 Invalidate shorts, flip bias to bullish
Price holds $36.30–$36.00 No trade (chop zone), wait for clean break
🔄 TRADE MANAGEMENT
Trail stop once TP1 is hit
Add to position only if price breaks $35.50 with volume
🧠 RISK CONTEXT: What Would Trigger a Bigger Drop?
USD strength (watch DXY reclaim 105+)
Risk-off sentiment (bond yields up, equities fall)
Any signs of Fed hawkish surprise this week
🎯 Summary of the Play
“If $36.30 fails to hold, I'm short to $35.00. If $36.00 breaks, it's a deeper unwind to $34.00. But if bulls push through $37, I’m out immediately — trend resumes upward.”
Precious metals: rotation towards silver, platinum and palladium1) GOLD, a mature bull cycle running out of technical steam
For over a year, gold (XAU/USD) has been the undisputed leader of the precious metals segment, driven by a powerful cocktail of technical and macroeconomic factors. Long-term bullish targets, identified via an Elliott wave reading, have now been reached or are very close to being reached, suggesting a possible end to the cycle. Gold's outperformance has been driven by several factors: an annual depreciation of the US dollar, robust physical demand in China and India, a rush by central banks to use gold as a strategic reserve, and increased financial demand via ETFs and futures markets. Nevertheless, this momentum may now be running out of “fuel” as the greenback approaches a technical crossroads, US interest rates stabilize, and the geopolitical environment remains uncertain but largely taken on board by the markets.
2) Silver, platinum and palladium lag far behind gold
While gold's bullish cycle appears to be coming to an end, investors are turning their attention to the other precious metals - silver, platinum and palladium - which are lagging significantly behind. This is partly due to their hybrid nature: halfway between industrial asset and safe-haven, they have not enjoyed the same enthusiasm as gold during periods of sheer financial uncertainty. However, the situation seems to be changing: the first stages of a technical catch-up can be observed, notably in silver (XAG), whose recent performance has outstripped that of gold. This comeback is supported by an optimistic reading of COT (Commitment of Traders) data, showing a reconstitution of long positions. Upside potential remains intact in the short to medium term, supported by industrial fundamentals and converging technical signals.
3) Are platinum and palladium technical opportunities or not?
Platinum (XPT) and palladium (XPD), long lagging behind, are now entering a recovery phase. These metals, widely used in automotive catalysts, have suffered from the energy transition and the decline in internal combustion engines. However, this weakness seems to have been overplayed by the markets. From a technical point of view, the current configurations suggest opportunities for a rebound. All the more so as certain players are beginning to recognize the role these metals could play in industrial value chains linked to hydrogen and clean mobility. If gold is reaching the top of the cycle, it is potentially in these “lagging” metals that the bullish leverage now lies for the months ahead.
4) The special case of copper
Last but not least, copper (XCU), although not considered a precious metal in the strict sense, deserves special attention. A true thermometer of the global economy, it has long been held back by uncertainties over Chinese growth and structural difficulties in Asia's real estate sector. But here too, the scenario seems to be changing: the gradual recovery in industrial demand, coupled with structural tensions on supply, is paving the way for a bullish phase. Copper thus represents a bridge between industrial metals and speculative dynamics, an asset in a context of accelerated energy transition. In short, while gold remains a strategic pillar, the next big move could well come from a generalized catch-up of all the metals that have lagged behind.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Linear Projection for Silver LONG TERM Cup and Handle Pattern.Silver is perhaps one of the most under-valued assets of our time, with bubbles ragining in almost all asset classes, poor lowly silver is sitting well below historical fair value, when priced in gold. But The Gold Silver Ratio being at such extremes does not mean Silver will rise, it is indeed possible for Gold to collapse and for Silver to merely hold steady-ish, and the gold silver ratio would be back in-sync.
What makes this particular time of such undervaluations in Silver so interesting, is that on long term time frames we see some extrenely powerful chart patterns that have been shaping up for 50 years or so. It is a Bullish Cup and Handle Pattern and we're currently drawing in what could be the last few months of the handle and if we confirm this pattern, chartists would give price targets between $90 on the low end and $700 on the high end. I've show the reasons for both extremes below. Reality, likely, will wind up being somewhere between both camps (if we do confirm the pattern) and someone will get cheeky with some Fibs and say they saw the top coming all along, or something, lol.
Historically Silver has pulled back HARSHLY after these moves, as much as 80-90%, however that was when the USD still had a very high likelihood of remaining the world resere currency still moving forward. If this happens, this time that won't look so certain, but I would still expect major volatility once a top is found and a pretty wide trading range to form.
We expect governments to continue to devalue their currencies, deficit spend, take part in QE programs and other monetary tricks to inflate away the debate. They won't actually inflate it away, of course, it'll just become a more enormous monster, but that's another administration/generation's issue to deal with!
XAGUSD(SILVER):To $60 the silver is new gold, most undervaluedSilver has shown remarkable bullish behaviour and momentum, in contrast to gold’s recent decline. Despite recent news, silver remains bullish and unaffected by these developments. We anticipate that silver will reach a record high by the end of the year, potentially reaching $60.
There are compelling reasons why we believe silver will be more valuable in the coming years, if not months. Firstly, the current price of silver at 36.04 makes it the most cost-effective investment option compared to gold. This presents an attractive opportunity for retail traders, as gold may not be suitable for everyone due to its nature and price.
Silver’s price has increased from 28.47 to 36.25, indicating its potential to reach $60 in the near future. We strongly recommend conducting your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions. Please note that this analysis is solely our opinion and does not guarantee the price or future prospects of silver.
We appreciate your positive feedback and comments, which encourage us to provide further analysis. Your continuous support over the years means a lot to us.
We wish you a pleasant weekend.
Best regards,
Team Setupsfx
SILVER: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 36.640 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
The What vs. The Where - A 2nd Breakout Pattern After A Nice WinA few days ago we looked at a bullish breakout opportunity on Silver and it played out perfectly. After a lovely move to the upside, price has started to consolidate again providing us with a very similar setup.
HOWEVER, just as in the case of the first, we need to be aware that once again the WHAT doesn't necessarily align with the WHERE stopping this from being a Grade A trading opportunity.
Please leave any questions or comments below and remember to hit that LIKE button before you go!
Akil
XAG/USD..4H chart pattern..XAG/USD short (sell) trade setup:
🔻 Trade Setup (Short XAG/USD)
Sell Entry: 34.500
Resistance: 34.800 (key level – invalidation zone)
Targets:
Target 1: 32.800 (+1.70 points)
Target 2: 32.000 (+2.50 points)
📊 Risk and Reward Estimation
Let’s assume your stop loss is just above resistance, e.g., 34.900 (a 0.400 risk).
Target Reward (Points) Risk R:R Ratio
32.800 1.70 0.40 4.25
32.000 2.50 0.40 6.25
🧠 Key Considerations
✅ Resistance Confirmation: 34.800 must be holding strong as resistance; look for rejection wicks, low volume up-moves, or bearish divergence.
🔻 Trend Bias: Favorable if silver is showing signs of a local top or weakness in commodities.
🔄 Position Management:
Consider trailing stop once price breaks below 33.800.
Partial close at 32.800 to secure gains.
⚠️ Risk Note
Silver (XAGUSD) can move sharply due to news, especially related to USD, interest rates, or inflation data. Always use a stop loss.
XAG/USD (Silver) Monthly Analysis – Major Resistance Test Incomi🔍 XAG/USD (Silver) Monthly Analysis – Major Resistance Test Incoming 💥🪙
📊 Overview:
This monthly chart of XAG/USD (Silver vs. US Dollar) reveals a critical technical juncture, where price action is testing a multi-year resistance-turned-support zone around $36.27. The chart is structured with major zones of support and resistance, and it includes a potential bullish extension followed by a bearish correction scenario.
📌 Key Technical Levels:
🟧 Support Zone: $22.50 – $24.00
🟨 Resistance-Turned-Support Zone: $34.00 – $36.50
🟪 Major Resistance: $43.60 – $48.80
🔼 Bullish Scenario (Preferred Path):
Current Price: ~$36.27 is at the upper edge of a crucial S/R flip zone.
📈 A breakout above this zone could propel silver toward the next resistance target at $43.60, with a potential full extension to $48.80.
✨ Momentum and historical breakout behavior from this region suggest strong buying interest if breached convincingly.
🔽 Bearish Scenario (Rejection Path):
🔄 If silver faces rejection at the $36.27 zone, it may retrace towards:
🟥 $28.31 minor support (intermediate target),
🔻 followed by a deeper correction to the $22.50–$24.00 support zone.
🔁 This would complete a classic retest of broken support, allowing accumulation before any further long-term rally.
🧠 Strategic Notes:
⚠️ Macro-driven: Silver is highly sensitive to inflation, Fed policy, and industrial demand.
📅 Long-term chart suggests cyclical behavior, with consolidation phases followed by aggressive trends.
📌 Traders should monitor weekly closes around $36.27 to confirm breakout or rejection.
✅ Conclusion:
Silver is at a make-or-break zone 🧨. A breakout may lead to a multi-year high, but failure here opens the door for a healthy pullback. The next few candles will be decisive for long-term positioning.
📉 Watch for rejection wicks at resistance
📈 Monitor volume on breakout attempts
📊 Plan for both outcomes: breakout or retest
SILVERRelationship Between Silver, 10-Year Bond Yield, and DXY (US Dollar Index) as of June 2025
1. Silver Price:
Silver has surged past $35 per ounce, approaching $36, marking a 13-year high and a strong rally driven by supply deficits and robust industrial demand, especially from electronics, solar panels, and renewable energy sectors.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield:
The 10-year yield recently rose to around 4.50% to 4.55% (June 6, 2025), up about 12 basis points over a couple of days, reflecting inflation concerns and fiscal uncertainties.
US Dollar Index (DXY):
The DXY has strengthened amid hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven flows, generally exerting downward pressure on commodities priced in USD, including silver.
2. Correlation and Dynamics
Inverse Correlation with Real Yields:
Silver prices exhibit a strong negative correlation with real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). As real yields rise, silver tends to fall due to higher opportunity costs of holding non-yielding assets.
Impact of Rising 10-Year Yields:
The recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield typically pressures silver prices lower. However, silver’s strong industrial demand and supply deficits have offset this effect, supporting prices despite higher yields.
DXY Influence:
A stronger dollar (higher DXY) makes silver more expensive in other currencies, usually suppressing demand and prices. Yet, silver’s recent rally suggests that supply constraints and investor interest are outweighing the dollar’s negative impact.
3. Fundamental Drivers Behind Silver’s Rally
Supply Deficits:
Silver mine production has declined since 2022, while industrial demand, especially for green technologies, continues to grow, creating persistent deficits.
Reduced Recycling:
Despite higher prices, recycled silver supply has diminished, indicating limited above-ground stocks.
Safe-Haven and Inflation Hedge Demand:
Economic uncertainties, rising government debt, and geopolitical tensions have increased investor interest in silver as a store of value alongside gold.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio:
The ratio remains elevated (~75:1), suggesting silver is undervalued relative to gold and has room to outperform.
4. Technical Outlook
Silver’s breakout above $35 is a key technical milestone, triggering momentum buying and algorithmic trading.
Overbought conditions suggest possible short-term profit-taking or consolidation near
Support levels
Conclusion
Despite rising US 10-year Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, silver prices have surged due to persistent supply deficits, strong industrial demand, and safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainties. The usual inverse relationship between silver and bond yields/DXY is currently moderated by fundamental supply-demand imbalances and technical momentum. However, silver remains sensitive to real interest rate movements and dollar strength, which could cap gains or trigger corrections in the near term.
#SILVER #DOLLAR
XAGUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal off the 61.8% FibBased on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 36.87, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 36.37, an overlap support.
The stop loss is set at 36.87, a swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Silver breakout: Bullish, but divergentIntraday Update: Silver is at the 127% extension of the March 28th highs to April 7th lows, RSI is divergent which may stall the rally, but dips back to the 35.50 level should find buyers now.
Keep in mind we trade well above the long term 61.8% retracement still at 35.48