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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAUUSD first time under the MA200 (4h) in 3 months.Gold broke today under the MA200 (4h) for the first time since August 7th. So far that hasn't invalidated the 5 month Channel Up, in fact today's low makes a perfect Higher Low for the bearish wave. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 2845 (+7.31% rally, which is the lowest it has so far inside the Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) hasn't been this oversold (reached 20.00) inside the Channel Up. An additional strong buy signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingBrokersView
Mastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading ProfitabilityMastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading Profitability In the world of trading, achieving success isn't merely about selecting the right stocks or making spot-on predictions. True profitability lies in managing risk effectively, a skill that can be the difference between sustained growth and heavy losses. A primary tool for this is the risk/reward ratio—a fundamental element in a trader’s toolkit. This metric helps traders maintain discipline and clarity, ensuring each trade has a strong potential for profit while keeping possible losses in check. Whether you’re new to trading or have years of experience, understanding and using the risk/reward ratio can transform your approach. It’s not about maximizing the number of wins but ensuring that the rewards consistently outweigh the risks. Here, we’ll explore how this ratio impacts trading strategy and why it’s critical for long-term success. Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio The risk/reward ratio is a straightforward formula that compares the profit potential of a trade to its possible loss. Essentially, it answers the question: How much can I gain for every dollar I risk? For example, if you're willing to risk $100 for a possible $300 gain, your risk/reward ratio is 1:3, meaning you could make $3 for every $1 at risk. Example of a 1:3 risk-reward ratio in EUR/USD This concept encourages traders to evaluate the potential downside of a trade before jumping in, moving away from focusing solely on potential gains. By keeping a balanced view of risk and reward, traders can avoid seemingly attractive trades that may carry excessive risk, enabling them to approach the market with a disciplined, long-term mindset. Why Risk/Reward Matters Every trade involves risk, and the ability to manage it effectively often differentiates successful traders from those who struggle. Using the risk/reward ratio ensures that each trade is structured with a clear plan, protecting capital while allowing for potential profits. Without this focus on risk, traders may chase high returns without properly assessing the downside, leading to costly mistakes. Combined with tools like stop-loss orders and position sizing, the risk/reward ratio becomes part of a broader risk management strategy. These components work together to balance profit potential with loss control, which is essential for traders aiming to sustain profitability over time. Here you can find a comprehensive article on stop-loss strategies. Risk/Reward Ratio vs. Win Rate A common misconception among novice traders is that trading success depends on winning more trades than losing ones. Experienced traders know that profitability has more to do with how risk is managed in losses than how many wins you achieve. The risk/reward ratio addresses this, making it possible to be profitable even if a trader wins less than half of their trades, as long as the wins are substantial enough to offset the losses. For example, if a trader wins only 40% of the time but maintains a 1:3 risk/reward ratio, the profits from winning trades can cover losses from losing trades while still yielding an overall profit. Here is a comprehensive table comparing risk/reward ratios to win rate profitability. Advantages of a Disciplined Risk/Reward Approach One of the most valuable benefits of using the risk/reward ratio is the structure it brings to trading. It helps traders stay rational and minimizes emotionally driven decisions, such as holding onto losing positions with the hope of a reversal. By maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio, traders enter each trade with a defined plan, reducing the chance of impulsive, loss-heavy decisions. Furthermore, applying a risk/reward framework ensures that trades are entered only when the reward justifies the risk. Over time, this disciplined approach fosters consistency and sets the stage for more predictable results. Steps to Calculate Risk/Reward Ratio Calculating the risk/reward ratio is a simple yet impactful process that enhances trade planning. Here’s a step-by-step guide: 1- Determine Your Risk: Define the amount you’re willing to lose if the trade moves against you, which is the difference between your entry price and stop-loss level. 2- Define Your Reward: Establish the potential profit if the trade goes in your favor, measured from the entry price to your target profit level. 3- Calculate the Ratio: Divide the potential reward by the potential risk to get your risk/reward ratio. For instance, if you’re buying a stock at $100 with a stop-loss at $95, your risk is $5. If you aim to sell at $115, your reward is $15, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. Choosing an Ideal Risk/Reward Ratio The ideal risk/reward ratio can vary based on trading style and goals, though many traders aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3. Higher ratios like 1:3 allow for a more forgiving approach to losses, where a trader doesn’t need a high win rate to be profitable. However, shorter-term traders might use lower ratios (e.g., 1:1.5) while aiming for a higher win rate to balance profitability. Ultimately, the best ratio depends on factors like trading frequency, volatility, and risk tolerance. Day traders may prefer a 1:2 ratio, allowing for quicker exits with decent returns. Swing traders, on the other hand, might look for a 1:3 ratio or higher to justify holding positions longer despite potential market fluctuations. Managing Risk with the Right Tools Achieving long-term profitability requires more than just a favorable risk/reward ratio; it also demands effective risk management. Stop-loss orders, for instance, are invaluable for capping potential losses. Placing stops at logical price points, such as below support levels or above resistance levels, helps protect positions without risking premature exits. Similarly, maintaining discipline by skipping trades that don’t meet your risk/reward criteria can prevent excessive losses. Proper position sizing and a detailed trading plan round out this approach, ensuring that each trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance. Here is a comprehensive guide about the Risk Management Final Thoughts: The Power of the Risk/Reward Ratio in Trading The risk/reward ratio is more than a calculation—it’s a mindset that can lead to stronger, more disciplined trading decisions. By assessing potential risks and rewards before each trade, you can avoid impulsive choices and safeguard your capital. This approach brings clarity and control to trading, even amid market unpredictability. While the risk/reward ratio may be a straightforward tool, its impact is profound. Focusing on balancing risk with reward enables traders to protect themselves from major losses while pursuing worthwhile gains. The next time you plan a trade, remember to ask: “Does this meet my risk/reward criteria?” If not, stepping back could be the wisest move. Risk management is essential for lasting success, and the risk/reward ratio serves as a constant guide. Consistently applying this ratio fosters discipline, confidence, and, ultimately, greater profitability in your trading journey. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
1
Best Price Action Pattern For GOLD Trend Following Trading This bullish pattern is very powerful . Being spotted on a daily/4h/1h, any time frame, it will help you to accurately predict a strong bullish movement on Gold . In this article, I will teach you to identify a buying volumes accumulation on Gold chart and as a bonus, I will show you how I predicted a recent bullish rally with this price action pattern. The initial point of this pattern will be a completion point of a strong bullish impulse. At some moment, the price finds a strong horizontal resistance, stops growing and retraces. The second point of the pattern will be a completion of a retracement. It should strictly be a higher low - it should be higher than the low of an initial bullish impulse. After a retracement, the price should return to a horizontal resistance and set an equal high , that will be the third point of the pattern. Then, the price should retrace AT LEAST one more time from a horizontal resistance and set a new higher low. After that, the price should set one more equal high. 3 equal highs and 2 higher lows will compose a bullish accumulation pattern. Please, note, that the price may easily set more equal highs and more consequent new higher lows and keep the pattern valid. Above is the example of a bullish accumulation pattern on Gold on an hourly time frame. The price set 3 equal highs and 3 consequent higher lows. This pattern will signify the weakness of sellers and the accumulation of buying volumes. The point is that each consequent bearish price movement from a resistance is weaker than a previous one. It means that fewer sellers are selling from the resistance and more buyers start buying, not letting sellers go lower. In our example, we can clearly see the consequent weakening, bearish price movements. This pattern indicates a highly probable breakout attempt of the resistance. A candle close above that provides a strong bullish signal. The broken resistance will turn into support and will provide a safe point to buy the market from. In our example, the market broke the underlined horizontal resistance and closed above that. It indicates the completion of a bullish accumulation and a highly probable bullish trend continuation. You can see that Gold retested a broken structure and then a strong bullish wave initiated. In a strong bullish market that we currently contemplation on Gold, this bullish pattern will provide a lot of profitable trading opportunities. No matter whether you are scalping, day trading or swing trading Gold, this bullish accumulation pattern will help you to predict long-term, mid-term and short-term bullish movements. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Bearish drop?XAU/USD is rising towards the pivot and could drop from this level to the pullback support. Pivot: 2,758.49 1st Support: 2,720.04 1st Resistance: 2,791.74 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Could the Gold bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance level. Pivot: 2,722.29 1st Support: 2,685.29 1st Resistance: 2,758.83 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
GOLD Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 2,740.91. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 2,791.34 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD_119 2024.11.04 19:01:05 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for GOLD_119 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 2759.99 SL: 2734.25 Entry Price: 2738.54 Analysis for GOLD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate short-term and long-term predictions for the XAU/USD price. **Short-term (next few days):** The price is expected to be volatile due to the upcoming US presidential election and the Fed's rate decision. The technical analysis suggests that the price is currently finding support near the $2,730 demand area, and the 14-day RSI indicates revived buying interest. However, bearish signals, such as the Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart and a fake breakout on the daily chart, suggest potential selling opportunities. Given these mixed signals, I predict that the price will likely **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near $2,711. However, a breakout above $2,800 could signal continued growth. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** The analysis suggests that gold prices continue to move within an ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend. Moving averages indicate pressure from buyers, and a rebound from the support line on the RSI could signal further price growth. The growth scenario suggests a potential target above the $3,175 level. Given this bullish outlook, I predict that the price will likely **go up** in the long-term, potentially reaching the $3,175 level or higher. However, a breakout below $2,475 would indicate a continuation of the fall. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for XAU/USD (Gold) in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week)** * The price is expected to stay the same or experience a slight decline. The market is cautious ahead of the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve's policy announcements, which may lead to a temporary consolidation or a small pullback. * The support level near $2,730 is crucial, and if it holds, the price may rebound. However, if it breaks, the price could test the $2,718 or $2,700 levels. * The 14-day RSI indicates revived buying interest, but it's not strong enough to suggest a significant short-term uptrend. **Long-term (weeks to months)** * The price is expected to go up. The forecast suggests that gold may test the support level near $2,690 before rebounding and continuing its growth, with a target above $3,175. * A breakout above the $2,905 resistance area would confirm the growth scenario, and a successful breakout above $2,800 could lead to a test of the all-time high at $2,790. * The overall outlook is bullish, with the market expecting a continuation of the uptrend once the uncertainty surrounding the US election and Fed's policy announcements is resolved. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) **Short-term Analysis (Next few days)** Based on the technical analysis and market context, I expect the gold price to remain volatile in the short-term, with a slight bias towards a pullback or correction. The 14-day RSI is near 60, indicating some buying interest, but the price is still below the $2,746 resistance level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the recent rally. The key support levels at $2,730 and $2,718 are crucial, and a failure to hold above these levels could lead to a drop to around $2,711. Additionally, the market is cautious ahead of the US presidential election and the Fed's policy announcements, which could lead to price movements of at least $100 in either direction. **Prediction:** Short-term price movement: **DOWN** (with a target of around $2,711) **Long-term Analysis (Next few weeks/months)** In the long-term, the gold price is expected to continue its growth trend, with a potential target above the $3,175 level. The ascending channel and the 21-day SMA at $2,700 provide a strong support base for the price. However, the long-term outlook is highly dependent on the outcomes of the US presidential election and the Fed's policy decisions. A dovish Fed and a risk-off sentiment could lead to a surge in gold prices, while a hawkish Fed and a risk-on sentiment could lead to a correction. **Prediction:** Long-term price movement: **UP** (with a target above $3,175) Please note that these predictions are based on the available data and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by orbborisson
Keeping my Selling order / #2,652.80 benchmark TargetFundamental analysis: Within turbulence caused by the U.S. presidential election and Head and Shoulders pattern aftermath, Gold finally broke through the Channel formed since the beginning of August. This does not change the Long-term Bull outlook for now, but the correction now is promising to be greater than the last couple of times. The Bottom line of the next Channel can be the February one, which represents Sellers goal (#2,592.80 – #2,600.80). As Fundamental effects usually correct back half of the Price-action change in the short period that follows, a retest of the Lower line of the August channel seems very likely. Based on this, the obvious strategy is to re-Sell Gold on bigger charts from the psychological levels / benchmarks (these are also Fibonacci retracement levels for the full or local decline). Technical analysis: So far so good as my first Selling Target is concluded near #2,682.80 Weekly Bottom and local Low's. Overbought Technicals prevailed followed by a strong Bearish reversal in form of Selling candlestick formation that Priced in a Bottom with #2,682.80 as first signs of new-old Support zone appearing, on a Hourly 4 chart’s Three Black Crows candle extension. Despite this, both Hourly 1 and Hourly 4 chart were completely Overbought, and current sequence on Gold was Natural response to such Technical development. No Moving Average still supports Buying bias on any chart, however this is typical Price-action behaviour near Daily chart’s local Bottoms or Top’s. Reversals are not evident and remember that the #2,652.80 - #2,662.80 is a heavy downside Support zone. For now as expected, no signs of Bullish reversal. On such a range bound session, Gold value continues to operate within my Hourly 4 chart's chart’s Bollinger bands. Market closing is adding credence to Sellers, and if market opens on Monday with Selling spike below #2,652.80 benchmark (last strong Support), break of the mentioned zone can aim for another #2,600.80 strong Support line (as cycle showcases that #2,600.80 test might be ahead. Everything in between is Price-action Daily fluctuation which contains no new clues where Price-action will Trade next. Keep in mind however that Technically I can expect Lower levels to be met and tested, however current market structure still holds Medium-term Bullish bias (since Hourly 4 chart is showcasing Bullish presence) and only if #2,700.80 psychological mark breaks and gets re-tested and market closes above (both Weekly and Daily market closing), I can expect Medium-term sentiment to regain Buying status. These multi-session gains on Gold are almost negated with respectful amount of losses Gold delivered and invalidated multi-Month Ascending Channel. My position: As I expected Fed easing the Rate and which may hurt the DX even more, I have awaited the Fed Rate announcement aftermath and engaged re-Sell order with #2,708.80 since I was aware that Gold will not deliver a move once again above #2,727.80 Medium-term Resistance zone. My order is currently running however I have missed the chance to close the order on #2,682.80 Support / even though my Profit on my re-Sell order is decent already, I will take the Risk and keep the order and close it as close as #2,682.80 Support zone in extension on overall another excellent week for me.
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88
11.7 The "Trump Trade" explodes, but beware now?On Wednesday, due to the Republican candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election, gold prices fell more than once, down nearly 3% during the day, as of the current lowest to near 2650, the largest decline since June 7 this year. The dollar hit a four-month high and is currently trading as high as 105.45. That makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, as the market bets that higher tariffs under Trump could keep interest rates higher for longer. From the daily chart: you can see that gold has broken 4 support averages in a row. At present, the daily below line support is near the am60 moving average position 2615. If gold falls below the 2650 weekly line support, then there is a high probability of touching 2615 here. From the current point of view, before gold did not fall below 2650, gold this wave of Trump effect decline is almost over. Therefore, in the after-market operation, I suggest that we pay attention to the situation here, if we can stabilize above 2650 again. Then, we can rely on the 2650 position or above 2650 to enter the long. Keep looking above 2700.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by xrrsxrrs
Gold is approaching its all-time high as the market awaits major With the strong recovery of the US economy, market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have gradually weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a three-month high on Monday, which usually puts pressure on gold prices. The US dollar index rose 3.6% in October, its best monthly performance since April 2022, making gold less attractive to overseas buyers. Although it is facing some pressure at present, the uncertainty of the general election may curb selling activity, and any action may have a greater impact on gold prices. In terms of geopolitics, tensions between Israel and Iran remain the focus of market attention. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae said that Iran will not give up its right to respond to Israel's "aggression", emphasizing that under international law, countries that have been aggressed have the right to fight back. This statement may exacerbate market uneasiness and drive demand for safe-haven assets. The Israeli Defense Forces completed a "precision strike" against Iran on October 26. Although the attack was small in scale, it still caused market concerns about the future situation. The Iranian military claimed to have successfully defended against the Israeli attack. This tension may continue to affect market sentiment in the coming weeks, and thus affect gold prices. The strength of the dollar makes gold more expensive in dollar terms, which has dampened the willingness of overseas investors to buy. The market is confident in the strong performance of the US economy, especially in the job market and consumer spending, which has driven the further appreciation of the dollar. The policy direction of the Federal Reserve will have a profound impact on the gold market. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to discuss future interest rate strategies at its policy meeting on November 6-7. According to market expectations, the possibility of a rate cut remains, but market expectations for a rate cut have gradually weakened due to the strong performance of economic data. Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism about the economic outlook in recent speeches, believing that the current unemployment rate and inflation levels are within an acceptable range. This optimism may lead to changes in market expectations for future rate cuts, which will affect gold prices. Because U.S. Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened, while investors were waiting for a series of heavyweight U.S. economic data and risk events to be released this week for clues about the Fed's interest rate outlook, but the uncertainty of the U.S. election and concerns about the geopolitical situation still provided safe-haven support for gold prices, so gold fluctuated upward on Monday. After the opening of today's market, the price of gold has risen strongly. At present, the short-term upward trend of gold remains good, so today investors continue to pay attention to the 2740 area of ​​the 1-hour upward trend line support below, and continue to go long on gold after gold pulls back and stabilizes. The JOLTs job vacancy data for October to be released today will become the focus of investors' attention. This data reflects the supply and demand situation in the labor market. At the same time, the US ADP employment data, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, and non-farm employment report will be released this week. These data will directly affect the market's expectations of the Fed's future policies. If you are interested in my analysis, please comment and tell me, thank you
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Yuliya1l11
2