THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to attempt that higher level and potentially break for higher pricing. If it didn’t the path showed the level for an opportunity to short which fell just short but worked well into the level we initially wanted.
We then published the red box targets and the bias through the week which held, and we managed to complete all bearish targets by Friday.
Was it easy? No! Did we expect that flush? No! We simply got to a stage on Friday where we could only watch or get in with the volume, so we stood back and just watched.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Simple one this week. We can see potential for lower, however, we’re too low to attempt shorting this, especially with the key level 3250-55 just below and major support. For that reason, we published the red boxes to help you all, look for the break either side! Ideally, we want to support on the low from the open and then continue with the move upside into the 3280-85 level initially, which should flip us on the support at 3270-75. We could range there as there is no news tomorrow but a gradual incline is what we’re looking for.
Support 3250-55 needs to break for lower, while resistance 3306-10 is the level that needs to break to go higher. That’s our potential range for now.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 3250 with targets above 3278, 3285, 3297 and above that 3306
Bearish below 3250 with targets below 3240, 3232, 3220 and below that 3212
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3275 for 3279, 3285, 3289 and 3306 in extension of the move
Break below 3260 for 3255, 3251, 3240 and 3235 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold - This is the official top!Gold - TVC:GOLD - might top out soon:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Since Gold confirmed its rounding bottom in 2019 it rallied more than +200%. Especially the recent push higher has been quite aggressive, squeezing all bears. But now Gold is somehow unable to create new all time highs, which could constitute the a top formation.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $3.000
Keep your long term vision🙏🙏
Philip (BasicTrading)
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy on July 7Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3360, support 3270
4-hour chart resistance 3345, support 3280
1-hour chart resistance 3325, support 3300.
3300 is now the short-term long-short dividing line. If it falls below, it will enter a new shock zone. Please pay attention to the 3300 support level before the NY market today! (The resistance level is 3320~3325). From the fundamentals, although the gold market has experienced a technical correction in the short term, gold will continue to maintain its status as a safe-haven asset under the continued uncertainty of US trade policy and complex geopolitical tensions. As Trump's tariff deadline (July 9) approaches, we should pay close attention to the development of US trade policy around August 1 (if the tariff policy is delayed to ease the demand for safe-haven assets, combined with the technical bearish information, gold will continue to find support below 3,300).
SELL: 3300
SELL: 3325
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Move From Resistance
Gold went overbought after a test of a key daily resistance cluster.
A formation of multiple bearish imbalance candles on an hourly time frame
signifies a local dominance of the sellers.
The price will continue retracing at least to 3323 support.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold price falls today and then looks bullish!Today, gold rose and fell back to 3345, which was the high point on Friday. It was suppressed and fell sideways.
From a technical point of view, the US market rose yesterday, and today's decline must continue to be bullish, but the position should not be too high or too low; if it is too high, there may be further decline, and if it is too low, there may be no reach.
The bullish position should be in line with the overall running rhythm of gold. Personally, I suggest that you can buy around 3320-3321, defend 3310, and target 3340-3345.
Focus on the rise of the European market. If the European market breaks through 3345 strongly, then you can continue to be bullish to 3360-3365; if the European market is always suppressed below 3345 and goes sideways, there is no performance, so you should consider selling, or there may be further retracement.
Put your thoughts in the comments section
Revealed: Beware of a strong counterattack from gold bears!Perhaps due to the impact of the NFP market later, gold fluctuated relatively cautiously today, and neither the long nor the short side showed signs of breakthrough, and the overall trend remained volatile. However, as gold rebounded, the market bullish sentiment gradually tended to be optimistic. In the short term, the lower support area was relatively obvious, that is, the second pull-up point 3335-3325 area, followed by 3315-3305 area;
However, as gold rebounded twice and fell after touching 3365, the suppression above was also obvious. In the short term, it faced the suppression of 3375-3385 resistance. If gold cannot effectively break through this area, gold bears may make a stronger counterattack, so I don’t think gold bears have no chance at all.
Therefore, I think there is still a good profit opportunity to try to touch the top and short gold. You can consider trying to short gold in the 3365-3375-3385 area and look at the target: 3340-3330-3320.
GOLD GOLD ,London session is giving a 30min buy signal from London gold market in 3309-3304 zone .
if they hold that zone it will be 3321 -3325 target.
and i see sell from that zone which will sweep into the descending trendline and activate a lower level buy at 3288-3295 zone .
trading is logical probability's ,pls stay cautious at all time. Any key level can fail because you dont have the money to move market.
#gold
GOLD On July 9, 2025, the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the June 17-18 session were released, providing insights into Federal Reserve policymakers' views on monetary policy, inflation, and economic risks.
Key Highlights from the FOMC Minutes:
The FOMC unanimously voted to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% .
There was a notable split among members regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation:
Some saw tariffs causing only a one-time price increase with no lasting inflation effect.
Most feared tariffs could lead to more persistent inflationary pressures
The committee acknowledged elevated uncertainty around tariff policy and its timing, size, and duration of inflation effects.
Labor market conditions were viewed as solid but with some softening expected due to policy uncertainty and tariffs.
The committee remains cautious about the trade-offs between inflation and employment goals, favoring a gradual approach to future rate cuts.
Only a narrow minority of policymakers supported an immediate rate cut with most preferring to wait for clearer economic signals.
Market Reaction and Price Action
Gold Price Action:
Gold prices reacted to the minutes with modest volatility, as persistent inflation concerns support gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold remains near elevated levels around $3,250 to $3,316 per ounce, consolidating after recent gains.
The cautious Fed stance and tariff uncertainty underpin demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
Summary Table
Event Details
FOMC Rate Decision Held at 4.25%–4.5%
Inflation Views Split on tariff impact; risk of persistent inflation
Rate Cut Support Narrow support for immediate cut in July
Overall Outlook
The Fed minutes reinforce a cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy, with inflation risks balanced against growth concerns.
Gold benefits from ongoing inflation worries and geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining strong support.
#GOLD
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Gold Market Analysis:
Overnight Dynamics: Following Trump’s reinstatement of tariffs, gold’s safe-haven demand drove another rally, but it still pulled back after facing pressure at the 3345 level. The decline extended today, requiring attention to the sustainability of safe-haven flows—recently, safe-haven-driven rallies have often been followed by pullbacks, so caution remains warranted for further gold corrections.
Technical Trends:
On the daily chart, gold continues to trade in a narrow range, with short-term moving averages essentially converging and flattening, suggesting a high probability of continued sideways movement in the near term.
The current range is temporarily compressed between 3285–3345, with the market bias leaning toward a "range-bound bearish" trend.
Trading Bias: Maintain a bearish stance on rebounds!
Trading Strategy:
Sell@3330-3320
TP:3300-3280
US tariff deadline, GOLD expected to fluctuate very stronglyInvestors will be keeping an eye on tariff news from Washington this week as the temporary suspension of punitive import duties is set to expire. If trade tensions do not escalate further after Wednesday’s deadline, that could be good for the market, while downside risks are also a negative for OANDA:XAUUSD in particular.
News Around US Tariffs
To avoid higher tariffs, negotiators from more than a dozen major US trading partners are racing against time to negotiate with the Trump administration, trying to reach a deal before July 9. Trump and his team have continued to apply pressure in recent days.
Trump announced a deal with Vietnam to lower the 20% tariffs he had promised on many Vietnamese exports, while talks with Japan, the United States’ most important ally in Asia and sixth-largest trading partner, appeared to be stalled, even as Washington hinted it was close to a deal with India.
In data
Nonfarm payrolls data released Thursday showed the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, beating market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Despite the slowdown in private-sector hiring, the overall strong report prompted markets to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut has dropped sharply from 24% to 4.7%. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the central bank will not ease its stance until there are more signs of cooling in employment and inflation.
Personal Comments
The market is following a number of factors:
On the one hand, there is a countdown to Trump's "final blow" on tariffs, and on the other hand, the non-farm data has poured cold water once again. As the Fed's stance fluctuates, the US Dollar faces a tug-of-war between long and short positions, while gold continues to stabilize technically or has had significant price increases. July 9 of this month could be a key moment to really test the sustainability of gold in this recovery.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered significantly over the past week, since finding support from the $3,250 area, but the temporary recovery is still limited by the EMA21 followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
However, sustained price action above the $3,300 raw price point should be viewed as a positive signal as it helps gold stabilize within the price channel.
If gold rises and breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to continue rising with a short-term target of around $3,400 rather than a horizontal resistance of $3,430.
The indecision sentiment is shown by the RSI activity, which is mostly moving around the 50 level. RSI above 50 is considered a positive signal, while RSI below 50 is considered a negative signal, but gold is currently in the middle of this point.
Overall, gold has not yet had a short-term trend, but in the long-term, gold prices are still in an upward trend, which is noted by the price channel.
Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3338
→Take Profit 1 3326
↨
→Take Profit 2 3320
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3275 - 3277⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3271
→Take Profit 1 3283
↨
→Take Profit 2 3289
GOLD GOLD ,AM WATCHING 3314-3312 for buy ,the 1hr rejection will be watched , the US10Y will be watched, DXY will be watched .
the three will give a trade reason ,RBA played us by keeping OFFICIAL CASH RATE THE SAME 3.86% instead of the forecast of 3.6%.
AUD AND GOLD have something in common .
trading is 100% probability, apply risk management, no amount of grammar will stop liquidity sweep against a careless trader.
protect your capital.
GOLD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3316.4
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 3307.9
Safe Stop Loss - 3320.5
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
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XAUUSD 4H – Smart Money Concept (SMC) SetupPrice action on the 4H chart shows a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) at the 3,320 level, marking a shift from a bearish trend into potential bullish order flow. This CHoCH is supported by a strong break of internal structure followed by a pullback.
🧠 Smart Money Insight:
CHoCH Zone (Break of Structure): Price broke the previous lower high, confirming possible bullish intent.
POI (Point of Interest): A refined 4H demand zone sits between 3,280–3,310, aligning with a previous accumulation area. Price is currently approaching this zone with decreasing momentum (potential liquidity sweep below minor lows).
Liquidity Grab: Several equal lows were formed before the POI — prime setup for a liquidity sweep before a bullish push.
Refined Entry Zone: Based on candle wicks and order block imbalance.
🎯 Trade Idea:
🟢 Entry: Wait for bullish reaction or confirmation inside the POI zone (3,295–3,305)
🎯 Target Zones:
TP1: 3,380 (reaction level)
TP2: 3,420–3,440 (major supply zone + inefficiency)
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below 3,270 (invalidates demand zone and structure)
📈 Bias: Bullish unless POI fails
🔍 Confluences:
✅ 4H CHoCH Confirmed
✅ Price approaching refined demand zone
✅ Liquidity resting below recent lows
✅ Previous imbalance not yet filled
✅ Clean supply zone overhead (TP target)
💬 Conclusion:
This is a clean SMC-based long setup. We are waiting for price to tap into demand and show bullish intent before entry. Strong probability of reversal into premium pricing zone if structure holds.
📍Drop a like if you caught this setup or save it to monitor the reaction!
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Taking a look at the 4 hour chart, I have marked the areas of interest. I would need a break and close out of the current trading range. Sells below 3301, and buys above 3310.. I am not getting stuck trading in the range, so those are my markers to wait for a break and close out of. So being that we are almost mid week, I am just going to watch for now until a valid set up appears. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 7/7/2025As explained in my weekly post, I am bearish in gold this week. Currently in 4hrly TF, it's still bullish. I am watching closely at 3330 and 3345 levels.
If 3330 is broken, I will engage selling upon retest. Alternatively, I will sell on bearish signals from 3345. My target for today is 3300.
IS XAUUSD SET FOR MASSIVE SELL THIS WEEK ?the recent decision of Trump administration to cut taxes coupled with the officially implementation of spending bill will encourage short term treasury bonds sell to make up for the trillions of the dollars in the fiscal deficit in the future, causing massive dollar boost which will eventuate in gold sell.
TARGET 1 ( 3200)
TARGET 2 ( 3250)
resistance (3370)
pivot point ( 3