XAUUSD trade ideas
Another excellent sessionAs discussed throughout my yesterday’s session commentary: “My position: Gold is Trading on relief rally and it is now whether #3,352.80 benchmark will break to the upside and extend the relief rally or reversal there and another decline. I personally lean more to the Bullish side with DX chart as main pointer for Gold on current session.”
I have made #7 successful Scalp orders throughout yesterday’s session (all Buying orders) firstly from #3,330.80, then #3,320.80 towards #3,327.80 and final batch of aggressive Scalps from #3,310.80 towards #3,318.80 - #3,325.80 / Highly satisfied with yesterday’s session Profit.
Technical analysis: Gold is currently disconnected from Hourly 4 chart’s Neutral Rectangle and thus I am expecting a new Selling direction starting from today’s session if #3,300.80 benchmark isn’t recovered and market closes above it (Weekly closing as well). Personally I believe it will be a big one on big Volume (best what last session of the week can offer). Hourly 1 chart is delivering firm Selling signals and points to a Bearish breakout and Selling continuation. A red closing on today's Daily chart’s candle points to a Bearish continuation also. Personally I believe that only if local Support gets invalidated (seen Trading at #3,272.80) does the trend resumes its previous Bearish bias also without more disappointing numbers on DX. No surprises so far as rejection on #3,292.80 - #3,300.80 Resistance level is showcasing strong durability for the cycle. This is a Technical pullback as well to cool down Long-term Overbought levels and may precisely test the #3,252.80 benchmark / near pivot point, probability which I mentioned earlier this week.
My position: I am Highly satisfied with my Profit and will take early weekend break, not catching a Falling knife.
GOLD: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
GOLD
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long GOLD
Entry Point - 3321.6
Stop Loss - 3316.9
Take Profit - 3330.6
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,734 (UPDATE)Here’s an updated analysis, as ‘Minor Wave 2’ is still forming & pulling back deeper into the $3,285 zone.
We’ll be keeping an eye around this zone for a slow down in bearish momentum & if we get it, we’ll enter a buy trade. If momentum doesn’t slow down, we will let it go towards $3,245 & invalidate bullish structure. That way we know to look for sell’s📉
TP1: $3,374
TP2: $4,300
Bearish Setup for GoldGold is currently in a retracement phase after breaking below the mid Keltner channel zone. The small upward arrow marks this temporary relief rally, which I anticipate will be short-lived.
Price is testing the lower band of the inner Keltner channel after rejecting from the upper zones. The structure suggests a classic lower high formation before a potential major sell-off, targeting the deeper liquidity zones around $3,218 – $3,160 and possibly $3,080 if momentum accelerates.
📉 Bias: Bearish
📌 Invalidation: A clean break and close above the red resistance block (~$3,320+)
📌 Target Zones: $3,218 → $3,160 → $3,080
🔔 Look for volume drop and wick exhaustion confirming the next leg down.
This retracement may offer one final short entry opportunity before a deeper correction unfolds.
XAUUSD Holds to Decline as Weakness DollarXAUUSD GOLD Outlook – Gold Holds Firm Amid Dollar Weakness and Fed Uncertainty
Gold continues to trade steadily as the U.S. dollar weakens and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy intensifies. Market speculation is growing following hints that former U.S. President Donald Trump may announce a new Fed Chair as early as September or October.
This development could undermine current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s influence, potentially shifting the monetary policy outlook. As a result, investor sentiment remains cautious, with many seeking refuge in gold amid the growing ambiguity in central bank direction.
A weaker dollar generally boosts demand for gold, and if speculation around Fed leadership continues, XAUUSD could remain supported or even rally further. Watch for upcoming Fed speeches and political announcements as key drivers.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance zone 3340 / 3345
Support Level 3315 / 3300
Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis Thanks.
GOLD GOLD ASIANS SESSION ,the price action of gold faces immediate resistance at 3334.91 descending black trendline backed by ema+sma 100 on 2hr timeframe ,correction from 3295 low yesterday could be seeing buy potential from 3326 and 3318.9 last level. be careful of dips into 3318.9 price level,because it could use broken demand floor as supply roof and continue selling.
for a healthy buying ,i expect 3326-3325 to hold buy.
US10y stands at 4.30% jumps from 4.28% low yesterday and interest rate remains 4.25-4.5% held steady from fed last monetary policy meeting .
cease fire slowing buy momentum and 10 year bond yield on demand floor ,if investors go the bonds way,then gold could be seeing a bearish continuation in a short term, note;the long term direction remains bullish.
The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will speak today and it is expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach to monetary policy amid mixed economic signals. Key points likely to be highlighted:
Inflation Outlook: Powell may note that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target but is showing signs of gradual easing, especially in core services and goods prices.
Interest Rate Path: The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious stance, signaling that while rate cuts are possible later in 2025, decisions will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation and labor market conditions.
Economic Growth: Powell may express concerns about slowing growth and global uncertainties but stress the Fed’s commitment to balancing inflation control with supporting the economy.
Housing Market: Given recent housing data, Powell might mention the impact of elevated mortgage rates on housing affordability and sales.
Overall, the testimony is expected to reinforce the Fed’s “patient and flexible” approach, leaving markets alert for any shifts in tone regarding the timing of rate cuts.
1. New Home Sales (USD)
Forecast: 694,000 units
Previous: 743,000 units
The forecast anticipates a decline in new home sales compared to the previous month, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market primarily due to elevated mortgage rates.
Recent reports from Fannie Mae and Zillow indicate that higher mortgage rates (projected to end 2025 around 6.5%) are weighing on home sales, leading to downward revisions in sales forecasts for 2025.
Despite some regional variations and slight upticks in existing home sales, the overall trend points to a cooling housing market with slower new home sales growth.
However, elevated mortgage rates and a cautious labor market continues to restrain some buyers.
2. Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
Forecast: -1.2 million barrels (draw)
Previous: -11.5 million barrels (large draw)
The forecast expects a smaller inventory draw compared to the previous week’s significant reduction.
Inventory draws typically support crude oil prices, but a smaller-than-expected draw could temper price gains.
Crude oil inventory data influences energy prices and can indirectly impact inflation expectations and market sentiment.
#gold
XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) Breakdown
🔴 1. UT in Phase B (Upthrust = Trap)
This move above the previous high was likely a liquidity grab, not a real breakout.
Price action showed rejection without follow-through — classic Wyckoff distribution behavior.
→ 📉 Smart money sells into retail buying.
🔴 2. SOW (Sign of Weakness)
After the UT, price dumped aggressively and broke short-term support.
This creates lower confidence in bullish continuation.
→ 📉 Weak hands shaken, structure looks heavy.
🔴 3. Bearish Structure (Waves i–ii–iii setting up)
Wave I = first drop after the UT.
Wave II = current bounce — looks corrective, not impulsive.
Expecting Wave III = the next strong sell leg.
→ 🎯 Target: revisit 3,072 → 3,040 → PML (3,010) → even 2,955.
🔴 4. Volume Profile Confirmation
Price is failing to hold the high-volume node (3,303–3,327).
Below this = thin volume zone, which price tends to drop through quickly.
→ 🚨 Liquidity vacuum below.
🔴 5. Resistance Cluster Above
Multiple key levels between 3,500–3,563 = heavy resistance.
Also aligns with the invalidation zone for the bearish count.
→ ❌ If price moves above here with strength = bias invalidated.
Gold (XAUUSD) short trade idea based on 1H chart 🪙 GOLD (XAUUSD) SHORT SETUP – Liquidity Grab Play 📉🔥
Here’s a potential short setup forming on Gold (1H timeframe):
🔹 Liquidity Sweep:
Price just tapped into a key supply zone after an aggressive bullish move, grabbing liquidity above recent highs (marked $$$). This is a classic setup for a potential reversal or retracement.
🔹 Premium Zone Entry:
The short position is taken right after price tapped the supply zone between 3340–3354, showing early signs of exhaustion.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Entry: Near 3341.30
SL: Just above supply at ~3354.13
TP: Down near the recent demand/imbalance at 3263.42
RRR: High reward potential with minimal risk.
🔹 Confluence Factors:
Price filled imbalance with strong momentum.
Reversal likely if no continuation above supply.
Key psychological levels and liquidity engineered below price.
📊 Execution Plan:
Watch lower timeframe confirmations (M15/M5 rejection or engulfing).
Manage stop based on how price behaves around 3350.
⚠️ As always, risk smart. Let the market confirm your bias before committing fully.
Note: wait for confirmation
gold strong upwardGold will continue its strong upward trend, the corrections seem to have come to an end, the gold price is certain to reach above $3500, if the current price and the price of 3235 break down, you should not panic, the direction of the gold price movement is still towards the ceiling ( ATH ) CMCMARKETS:GOLD
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) 4-Hour Chart - OANDA4-hour chart from OANDA displays the price movement of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from late June to mid-July 2025. The current price is $3,290.270, reflecting a decrease of $37.475 (-1.13%) as of 09:42. The chart highlights a recent upward trend followed by a potential support zone around $3,200-$3,300, with a marked resistance level near $3,380. The analysis suggests a possible reversal or consolidation phase.
Excellent session yesterdayAs discussed throughout my yesterday’s session commentary:” My position: Besides all Fundamental factors / escalation, Gold isn't soaring as one could expect. Therefore I will continue Scalping #3,352.80 - #3,377.80 Neutral belt and will Trade the break-out. #3,352 towards #3,327.80 or #3,377.80 to the upside however with DX rising, I give more probabilities to the downside.“
I have firstly engaged many Scalping orders from #3,377.80 - #3,382.80 Scalp re-Buy zone towards #3,392.80 and closed all with Profit. Then late U.S. session delivered #3,352.80 benchmark test which I re-Bought in repetition and closed my Scalp orders on #3,358.80 - #62 belt. Also my Selling Swing projection was delivered (#3,327.80 test).
Technical analysis: Gold is taking strong Intra-day hits in form of Three Black Crows candlestick formation and most likely Selling sequence is not stopping here. The Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance cluster has rejected the Price-action twice already which gives a updated Targets with a potential extension towards #3,200.90 psychological benchmark if #3,322.80 - #3,327.80 Support zone gives away. Only if #3,352.80?mark breaks to the upside and market closes (especially Weekly (#1W) closing) above, I will contemplate Buying the market as at the moment / Hourly 1 chart’s reveals no clues nor configuration is not worth entering / only Sell orders both Scalp / Swing are suitable. I don't expect today’s session Fundamental reports to be relevant, as I await Support extension test (Selling on every local High’s) due ceasefire talks / deal.
My position: I will Sell every High’s on Gold especially if #3,352.80 benchmark is not recovered waiting for #3,300.80 benchmark test.
The current price of gold is 3330-3335, go short directly!Gold rebounded after hitting the bottom of 3295. At present, gold is just a rebound, not enough to reverse directly. Gold rebounds and continues to be short. After all, the daily line has fallen continuously, so the short momentum of gold is still there. In the short term, the rebound of gold is just a repair after oversold. Gold is currently priced at 3330-3335 and is directly short.
The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to be arranged in a short position downward. After gold fell below the previous low of 3340 yesterday, gold has not been able to rebound again. In the short term, 3340 has become the key to long and short positions. In the short term, gold rebounds below 3340 and continues to be shorted. If gold breaks through and stabilizes at 3340 again, then gold may start to fluctuate again. Before breaking through 3340, gold is still weak and continues to maintain a short trend.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again our levels deliver the magic!!
Yesterdays update, we stated that we got the move into 3393 just like we analysed for the first level of swing and that we will now look for ema5 to cross and lock 3372 or 3393 to confirm direction.
🔄 Update:
No ema5 lock above 3393 confirmed the rejection into 3372 followed with ema5 cross and lock opening the full swing range test into 3353. We got the test and the perfect bounce back into 3372. A move into 3393 will complete the full swing range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels, taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures gives 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back-test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid-term swings and trends.
🌀 The swing ranges give bigger bounces than our weighted levels - that's the difference between the two.
BULLISH TARGET
3440 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3463
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3463 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3483
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3483 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3508
BEARISH TARGETS
3418 -DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3418 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3393 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3372 - DONE
3353 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3353 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3330
3306
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3375 and a gap below at 3306. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3375
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3499
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561
BEARISH TARGETS
3306
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3236
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2995
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
UPDATE 26th June 2025 Consolidation Phase Consolidation Phase still running.
It have a potential to retest a lower support.
During this consolidation period, we will continue to monitor any fluctuations ( war, geopolitic, US economic, etc ) that will affect the movement of gold prices.
So becareful at support level / key level.
Goodluck !
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GOLD Outlook: Bullish Above 3379, Correction Likely BelowGOLD – Technical Overview
Gold maintains bullish momentum, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are increasing safe-haven demand.
The price is approaching the pivot level at 3379. A confirmed 1-hour close above this level would likely extend the bullish trend toward 3393 and 3404.
However, if the price remains below 3379, we may see a short-term bearish correction toward 3364, potentially dipping as low as 3339 before resuming the upward trend.
Key Levels
• Pivot: 3379
• Resistance: 3393, 3404
• Support: 3364, 3339
GOLD 30M ANALYSIS (LONG)In this analysis we're focusing on 30Min time frame. If we look in this 30Min chart, we have supply area and demand area. And we have also a minor resistance level. Now what I'm looking for that price move impulsively upside after sweeping all SSL. I'm expecting that price will come back and retest (3310 - 3305) area at least. So keep an eye on these level, confirmation is key.
Second Condition:
If price break above 3332 and close above 3332 with strong momentum than we will plan a buy trade on retracement.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.