Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis – 1H🏛 1. Current Market Structure
📈 After a strong upward impulse, gold has now pulled back into a Bull OTE zone, aligned with a key trendline acting as a dynamic support.
📐 This setup could indicate a potential bullish rebound, especially if the market views this pullback as a healthy retracement before a larger continuation.
🌍 2. Bigger Picture Outlook
🔍 The recent rejection at the Bear OTE highlights the presence of strong supply at higher levels.
⚠️ However, the current bounce from the Bull OTE could either be the start of a larger bullish leg targeting the Bear OTE again – or just a technical bounce before a deeper correction, especially if the FED hints at rate cuts in June or July.
🔍 3. Key Technical Observations
🟦 Bear OTE: Clear rejection, confirming this as a key resistance for now.
🟦 Bull OTE: Providing initial support, coupled with a trendline bounce, adding confluence for a potential move up.
📐 Trendline Support: Critical for maintaining the current bullish structure, a break here could signal a deeper retracement.
🎯 4. Short-Term Expectations
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from the Bull OTE
Break below the trendline
Deeper pullback towards the Supply Zone or even the 50% retracement level
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Clean break above the Bull OTE
Retest of the Bear OTE (~$3,500)
Possible breakout if volume supports the move
🔥 5. Upcoming Catalysts
🕰 FED rate decision in June/July – potential rate cuts could shift sentiment.
💰 Inflation and economic data: Key drivers for gold’s short-term direction.
🔎 Volume and order flow: Crucial to confirm any true breakout.
✅ Conclusion
👉 Gold is at a critical junction, testing a Bull OTE with a supporting trendline – a key moment for determining the next major leg.
📍 Key levels to watch:
Bear OTE (~$3,500)
Bull OTE (~$3,300 - $3,320)
Trendline support – a break here could invalidate the bullish thesis
⏳ As always, stay alert for fakeouts and liquidity grabs around these levels.
