XAU / USD ANALYSIS [Bullish Bias]Gold continues to show strong bullish momentum, supported by key technical levels and favorable market structure. Price action remains constructive above the major support zone, indicating potential for further upside.
I'm closely monitoring the following levels for a high-probability long setup:
Demand Zone / Support Level:
Entry key level: 3375 - 3370
As long as gold holds above this support, the bias remains bullish with potential for a continuation toward higher resistance levels. A break and sustained move above the entry zone would confirm bullish strength and could trigger the next leg up.
Risk management remains key waiting for clear confirmation before entering is advised.
#GOLD, #FOREX , # VeloraFXReal
XAUUSD trade ideas
BTCUSD GOING LONG AFTER A SHIFT IN MOMENTUM โ
Analysis: Gold has successfully broken its last high (Break of Structure), signaling a potential shift in momentum. Iโm looking for a pullback or retest of this break to enter a long position and ride the upward move.
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Target: Next key resistance or liquidity area above.
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Stop Loss: Just below the last low to minimize risk.
It Wasnโt on a Chart. It Was in My JournalYou donโt become consistent by learning more setups. You become consistent by learning more about yourself.
โ๏ธ The Day I Started Journaling, I Stopped Guessing
I used to chase charts like they owed me something.One moment I was confident. The next, I was doubting everything, not because the market betrayed me, but because I wasnโt keeping track of who I was becoming .
Then I started journaling.
Not just logging wins and losses, but writing what I felt, what I saw, where I rushed, and why I broke my own rules. It changed everything.
What Journaling Gave Me (That Charts Alone Couldnโt)
1. Clarity Over Chaos
Every trade became a lesson. I stopped reacting and started reviewing.
2. Accountability Over Emotion
Writing โI entered out of fear of missing outโ hits different when you see it five times in a row. I couldnโt lie to myself anymore.
3. Discipline Over Drama
No more revenge trades. No more โjust one moreโ trades. Journaling made me pause, and that pause saved me more than any setup ever could
Itโs Not Just a Journal. Itโs a Mirror.
Most traders document price. Few document themselves. And yet thatโs where the edge lives, not in more indicators, but in more self-awareness.
My Advice to Any Trader Trying to Break Through
Donโt just journal for results . Journal to understand who you are in the market. Your wins will mean more, and your losses will teach more. And if you're consistent with it, your growth wonโt just be measurable. Itโll be undeniable.
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Gold is expected to hit 3410-3420 againBecause of the news that Iran hopes to ease the hostile relationship with Israel, gold fell sharply in the short term, then rebounded after touching 3383, and quickly recovered above 3390. From this point of view, the buying support below is strong, and the market sentiment is still high, which limits the downside of gold, and the support of 3390-3380 area is still valid.
Although the bullish momentum of gold has weakened relatively due to the retracement in the short term, as long as gold remains above 3380, it still maintains a strong upward structure; and the retracement only exacerbates the short-term shock trend. Gold is still likely to maintain a shock upward structure and try to touch the 3410-3420 area again. Once gold breaks through 3420 strongly, it is expected to hit the area near 3450 again.
So for short-term trading, I still hold a long position in gold, and there is still a certain profit now. I have to say that if gold can reach the 3410-3420 area as expected, our profits will increase significantly!
$Gold Fills the Gap โ Is a Bullish Bounce Toward $3350 Next?By examining the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that in last weekโs analysis, the price successfully hit all four targets: $3338, $3332, $3326, and $3317, and finally closed on Friday at $3309. This move delivered over 390 pips of return, and I hope you made the most out of it!
Now, letโs move on to the latest gold analysis: As you can see, today gold dropped to the $3294 zone, finally filling the liquidity gap previously marked on the chart. Currently, gold is trading around $3315, and I expect further bullish movement toward the $3330 area as the first upside target.
After that, we should closely watch the $3332โ$3352 zone for a potential corrective reaction.
There are more details in this analysis that Iโll share soon โ with your support!
THE MAIN TA :
Weekly Gold Outlook: Signs of Trend Reversal EmergingGold is beginning to show clear signs of a potential bearish phase. The current uptrend is weakening, and a new center of gravity has formed around 3319 on the weekly timeframe. Price is currently moving higher to complete Phase 2, which often precedes a new trend cycle.
A weekly close below 3320, especially after sweeping the upper liquidity zone near 3495, would confirm the start of Phase 3 โ historically a trend continuation setup. This suggests that gold could enter a deeper correction phase, potentially resetting for the next bullish leg.
Projected Downside Targets:
Target 1: 3100
Target 2: 3056
Target 3: 2960
Extended Bearish Target: Below 2760 (Accumulation zone for the next uptrend)
This cycle is unfolding on the weekly timeframe, so it may take time to fully develop.
Key Resistance Zones (Sell Interest Areas):
3525โ3548: Current resistance zone with signs of profit-taking by large players
3606: Next resistance level
3688: Strong upper resistance where institutional selling interest could intensify
These zones are critical supply areas, and market participants are already showing signs of booking profits around these levels.
Gold falls back to bullish trendAnalysis of gold trend:
This week, after gold opened at 3450, it gradually fell to 3365, with a range of 100 US dollars. Although the main force of the two trading days was a decline, the bullish trend remained unchanged. In an uncertain environment, there is still a chance of a big rise in the future. From the 4-hour gold chart, gold has continuously appeared in the form of a negative line, and the price continues to run below the short-term moving average, and the short-term moving average forms a downward resistance. It suggests that the bears may continue the downward trend. However, the lower track of the Bollinger band provides some support, so at the 4-hour level, the bears are dominant and gold may continue to extend downward.
The range performance in the 4-hour chart is obvious. On Tuesday, it fell sharply to 3365, which is just the support point of the lower Bollinger track. The performance of weak fluctuations is temporarily below the H4 Bollinger middle track. The range in the short term is 3405-3365. If it breaks 3405 upward, then the 4-hour chart becomes stronger and 3450 can be seen above. This possibility is very high because the market will have performance news at any time. However, if it falls below 3365, there is still a possibility of going to 3350 in the daily cycle. Therefore, there is actually no absolute certainty for gold in this cycle. For the intraday market, it is recommended to accumulate in the short term. In the case of no new lows, the 3370 support is an opportunity to go long. If it does not break 3405 above, it is necessary to break 3405 in the short term to get out of the trend strength.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short gold rebounds near 3395-3393, stop loss 3403, target 3370-3364;
2. It is recommended to buy gold when it falls back to around 3370, with a stop loss of 3360 and a target of 3390-3400;
15.06.2025Gold has recently dazzled markets, surging past $3,400 per ounce, propelled by a potent mix of geopolitical tension and a softer U.S. dollar. Key levels to watch for the next week Support at 3380, Resistance at 3460. the Renewed Middle East tension could drive the price to the new highs at 3660 on the downside fail of 3380 will bring the price back to 3260 .
GOLD Intraday Chart Update For 13 June 25Hello Traders,
First of all congratulations to all of you as 3430-40 zone GAP filled today but sad new is war scenarios resume
so advise for you is take limited risks
all eyes on 3450 Psychological level breakout, intraday expected range is 3400-3450 if markets break 3450 then it will move towards 3480
if market breaks 3400 successfully then it will move back towards 3370 or even 3355
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Can we look for longs in XAUUSD? Here's a multi-timeframe POVHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
๐ง ๐ก Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
๐ญ๐ Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Will ASIA favor BULLS or BEARS?Two โif-this-then-thatโ scenarios
If price pushes above the recent swing high (~3 430โ3 435)
โ Look for a move toward the 50% retracement zone at 3 415โ3 416 (our next upside target).
If price drops below the recent swing low (~3 356โ3 357)
โ Itโll likely slide down to the 21-day EMA at 3 342, which has acted like a magnet/bounce area.
Why the 21-day EMA matters
Itโs sloping up beneath price (green trendline), so dips into it often spark fresh buying.
A buy-limit order around 3 342 gives you a low-risk entry with the trend still intact.
Overall bias
As long as gold stays above that rising trendline/21 EMA, the bulls remain in control.
Break the swing high โ more upside.
Break the swing low โ deeper pullback into support.
Gold Pulls Back After Testing Resistance๐ Market Overview:
Gold fell to a low of $3,374 earlier today after testing the $3,434 resistance late last week. The drop was primarily due to profit-taking near recent highs, alongside a mild recovery in the US dollar. Despite this pullback, the medium-term uptrend remains supported by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
๐ Technical Analysis:
โข Key Resistance: $3,434 โ $3,450
โข Nearest Support: $3,374 โ $3.360
โข EMA: Price remains above both EMA 09 and EMA 20, suggesting a continuation of the short-term bullish trend.
โข Candlestick / Volume / Momentum:
o RSI is holding around 61โ63, no longer in overbought territory.
o MACD remains positive, though upward momentum has slowed.
o Bearish candles during the Asian session suggest lingering sell pressure near $3,430. A technical rebound from $3,374 is currently underway.
๐ Outlook:
Gold may consolidate between $3,370โ$3,390 in the near term. If the $3,360 support holds, a rebound toward $3,420โ$3,440 is likely. However, a stronger USD could increase downside pressure.
๐ก Suggested Trade Strategy:
๐ป SELL XAU/USD at: $3,410 โ $3,420
๐ฏ TP: $3,385
โ SL: $3,430
๐บ BUY XAU/USD at: $3,374 โ $3,378
๐ฏ TP: $3,400 โ $3,420
โ SL: $3,360
Continue to try to short gold๏ผIt's expected to touch 3355-3345 Gold has broken through 3380 twice, but recovered quickly, indicating that the bulls still have some defensive power. At present, gold has touched 3400 again; it can be seen that the bulls' potential defense is still good, but it is not enough to support the continued rebound of gold in the short term. Obviously, gold is still under pressure in the 3410-3420 area in the short term. If gold cannot break through this resistance area in the short term, gold may continue to maintain a volatile state and continue to seek strong support downward. Only after gold breaks through the 3410-3420 area, it is expected to continue to rise and touch the area near 3450 again.
When gold tested the support near 3380 several times during the day and tried to break through this area, after gold failed to break through the 3410-3420 area in the short term, I think gold will be more likely to choose a downward direction, or even continue to test the 3355-3345 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, before breaking through the 3410-3420 area, we should not chase gold too much, and we can try to short gold in this area appropriately.
XAUUSD Expecting Selling movementPrice Level & Trend
Current price $3380
The market has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a bearish trend continuation
A yellow zigzag line projects a possible downward price movement path
Resistance Zone
A red rectangular zone marks a strong resistance area, previously tested multiple times and rejected
Price failed to break above this zone, reinforcing the bearish outlook
Support & Target Levels
Three significant horizontal support levels are marked
Level 1 $3,368
Level 2 $3,356
Final Target Zone Around $3344 $3344
The final target is emphasized with an orange Target label and arrow, indicating the expected destination for this bearish move
Projection
The chart anticipates short-term pullbacks retracements followed by further downside
This is visualized through the yellow zigzag pattern illustrating probable future price action
I think these 2 scenarios can happen for gold to reach new ATHGold supported by Israel-Iran conflict, US intervention in focus
Gold's sharp rise came late last week after Israel struck multiple targets in Iran, including Tehran's nuclear facilities.
The attack sparked fierce retaliation from Iran, which launched a barrage of missiles at key Israeli targets, including the financial capital Tel Aviv. Some of the Iranian missiles were also seen penetrating Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system.
What do you think?
Best regards, StarrOne !!!
XAUUSD โ Can the bulls drive it up to $3,485?XAUUSD is a typical case of a market trading within an ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both its upper and lower boundaries.
As you can see in my analysis, the price has recently broken through an important resistance zone and may return to retest it. If this level holds as support, it will indeed confirm the bullish trend and make the move towards my projected target of 3,485 highly likely, aiming for the next resistance zone at 3,485 and 3,500.
If the price remains above this support zone, my bullish outlook remains intact. However, if the price fails to hold above this level, the short-term bullish outlook will therefore be disrupted and may be followed by the next downward retracement.
IS GOLD AT REVERSAL OR NEW HIGHS COMING ?Geopolitical tension raised between Iran & Israel which gives pump to gold so what do we expect now ? new highs of $3700 , $4000 or reversal ? in my opinion if gold doesn't breaks it's previous high with the body it might be a signal of LH & LL series.
Area to watch for reversal : $3468 - $3482
XAUUSD Technical Outlook | Bullish Setup AheadGold has been trading in a consolidation zone between ~3,300 and ~3,400 after a strong bullish impulse. The price action has respected a parallel channel, with clear resistance forming at the 3,402 level.
๐ Key Observations:
Price is forming higher lows, showing buying pressure building up.
Resistance at 3,402 is being tested multiple times.
Break above this level could trigger a move towards 3,440+, aligning with the upper bound of the channel.
Consolidation indicates accumulation โ potential for breakout.
๐ Possible Trade Setup:
โ
Breakout confirmation above 3,402
๐ฏ Target: 3,440
๐ Invalidated if price falls below 3,340 with strong bearish volume
Trading Tip: Always wait for breakout confirmation with volume or candle close above key levels. Manage your risk accordingly.
Whatโs your outlook on Gold? Bullish or bearish from here? ๐ฌ
#XAUUSD #Gold #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction
GOLD 30MIN Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%โ4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fedโs forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%โ4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
Gold continues to rise! When will the price of gold fall?Market news:
In early Asian trading on Monday (June 16), London gold prices continued to rise last week, hitting a nearly seven-week high of $3,451/ounce, as Israel and Iran launched a new round of attacks on each other on Sunday (June 15), exacerbating market concerns that escalating wars may trigger wider regional conflicts, and international gold continued to receive support from safe-haven buying.The continued rise of gold during the conflict depends on whether it is in a bull market and whether the conflict is likely to escalate. The inflow of funds into gold stock ETFs shows an increase in retail interest, especially silver outperforming spot gold, suggesting that market sentiment is turning. In addition to the geopolitical situation, this week will also usher in the test of the US retail sales monthly rate (commonly known as "terror data") and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.This trading day also needs to pay attention to the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June and the G7 Leaders' Summit, and pay attention to China's May total retail sales of consumer goods and China's May industrial added value annual rate.
Technical Review:
The technical price of gold is in good condition with the buying structure of the trend. The MA10/7/5-day moving averages on the daily chart remain open upward, the RSI indicator is hooked upward, and the price is running in the upper and middle track of the Bollinger Bands. The moving average system of the short-term four-hour chart maintains a golden cross opening upward, the price gradually moves up from the high point of the MA10-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands remain open upward in the same hourly chart. Affected by the market fundamentals, gold has triggered risk aversion.The price of gold continues to rise, and the graphics of various time periods have formed obvious and strong support. In the daily chart, gold fell back to the trend line support after the triangle convergence breakthrough, and ushered in a rising trend again. In the short term, the upward momentum of gold is still strong. ย ย ย Based on the last round of retracement low of $3120 as the starting point of the wave structure, the push of the third wave may cause the price of gold to rise to $3600-3640. Combined with the current fundamentals, news and geopolitical situation, the medium- and long-term upward trend of gold is far from over.
Todayโs analysis:
At present, the entire market is still affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Gold has been at a high level for a long time. If there is no turning point, the gold price will continue to remain above 3400 today. We will have the opportunity to see the gold price refresh the historical high of 3500 again today or tomorrow, and the probability is also very high. Then our operation idea is to buy to the end before the trend changes!
The trend of the gold one-hour market is still strong. From the short-term trend, it continues to maintain a high-level shock pattern, and the low point continues to rise. The high point has been continuously broken. Although the high opening and high movement of the Asian market failed to be directly continued, the high and fall back just gave us the opportunity to buy in!
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3420-3423, stop loss at 3411, target at 3450-3470;
Sell short-term gold at 3468-3471, stop loss at 3480, target at 3420-3400;
Key points:
First support level: 3423, second support level: 3410, third support level: 3392
First resistance level: 3458, second resistance level: 3467, third resistance level: 3483
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty Impacting GoldFundamental Overview:
U.S. Dollar Impact: XAU/USD is heavily influenced by the U.S. Dollar. A weaker dollar typically boosts gold prices, as gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies. Any signs of low interest rates or inflation concerns in the U.S. could further weaken the dollar, providing a bullish scenario for gold.
Interest Rates & Inflation: If U.S. inflation remains high or if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance (no rate hikes), XAU/USD is likely to rise as investors turn to gold as a hedge against inflation.
Geopolitical and Economic Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions or a financial market correction could boost safe-haven demand, pushing XAU/USD higher.